The Hobbit Mafia [Town win]

[BuJaber]

Flores: Just so we're clear: I didn't skim your vote post, I skimmed when I was talking about the masons thing. I was apologizing for the disorganized method of my posting and rambling, not my theories. So I'm apologizing for misleading town by sounding like a crazy guy. I'm not trying to take back any accusations on you and Ragian at the time I made them. Like you said, cases are built, then defended and opinons can change. For example, you suggesting that Pika might be an SK is still to me rather suspicious; but you've done other things since that leave me undecided.

My explanation for calling Flores and Mud scum in day 1:

For the record I don't have info you don't have. It's just that they were both somewhat keen on participating at the start and then once things got going they became very quiet. My guess was that they had no problem letting Thor / MM get lynched. If they jumped on the wagon near the end they'd get unwanted attention. Knowing that thor / MM would be revealed town by not participating they can later go "see I didn't vote for x; your case was bullshit and I was right"

I later realized that Flores did vote it was just not counted in the vote count. So this only applies to Mud now.
In day 2 he didn't do much to change my opinion, and everyone focused their attention on dakky. Most of Mud's posts have barely any substance. A lot of them have been 'easy' ways to appear active in the game like saying we should wait for replacements, posting a vote count, restating of facts, etc. Flores may have seemed like he/she was scumarining a few times but when he/she posts he/she tries to make quality posts.

Bottom line is this. We've had 5 people this game that have gotten somewhat close to being lynched (and dakky who got lynched): MM, Hotshot, Dakky, mitch, thor.

MM seems to be town. Dakky flipped scum. Thor was confirmed scum.

We can't be sure about mitch and hotshot.

What we do know is that scum definitely know which of them are scum and which of them are not. So when dakky made it obvious he could not escape a lynch, his scummates are likely going to lynch him.
3 typical strategies for scum: going for a quick case against a townie they think others would lynch, avoiding a near-sure mislynch so when it happens they have an excuse, and voting against a scummate to look like they're on town's side. We only have 1 lynch so far but we have had plenty of voting/unvoting activity we can analyze.

Since dakky isn't a bomb it makes no sense for a scummy mitch to pretend to be that scared of getting killed if he voted for him. That is one reason why I don't think mitch is scum, the other being gut feeling based on previous games where dakky and mitch got into arguments.

PS - I do believe Hotshot was busy, not the first game he's mentioned tax season; also generally I don't think people lie about real life stuff. They can use it to their benefit, but to outright lie about a real life excuse is behavior I wouldn't expect from anyone here. I believe that earns him some time to play and be judged accordingly. However, he could be scum and still have a real-life reason to be inactive. Also if I recall correctly, MM and hotshot were voting each other on day 1. If we believe MM to be town, it could possibly indicate that hotshot is scum. So we can keep an eye on him.

Flores - Humor me, if you don't vote for me or mitch, do you have a 3rd suggestion?

[Thorthoth]

What the hell Bujaber? Is there a prize for the most slips? Maybe you shouldn't post when you're drunk scum.

Bottom line is this. We've had 5 people this game that have gotten somewhat close to being lynched (and dakky who got lynched): MM, Hotshot, Dakky, mitch, thor.
MM seems to be town. Dakky flipped scum. Thor was confirmed scum.

No. I was confirmed TOWN, remember?

Don't vote for mitch Thor. MudPuppy yes but I feel very strongly about my perception of mitch this game and I don't want more mislynches.

So far there has been one lynch , and it wasn't a mislynch, at least not from Town's P.O.V.
...and trying to cajole me into not voting for mitch also earns you extra scum points.

Okay, Town, I feel like we have an embarrassment of riches here. Should we vote for Mitch or BuJ. Maybe Mitch today, BuJ tomorrow?

Obviously this depends on what other new evidence gets unearthed.
I want to hear from the others now. Are you leaning Mitch or Buj, or if neither what are you thinking and why?

[Ragian]

You're taking typos way too personally.

There are other reasons to suspect BuJ, however.

[Thorthoth]

You're taking typos way too personally.

There are other reasons to suspect BuJ, however.

I don't take all slips seriously, but those are way past typos.

[Ragian]

Disagree.

[Samlen]

I already gave my reasoning why I doubt mitch would be scum. It's nice to see buj post more now that he was getting more scrutiny, but i'm not sure how much it changes my opinion of him yet. Still waiting for hotshot to be able to have a chance to post more before I judge.
@Thor in what way is it not a typo? He obviously meant town or he'd be voting you. You keep taking the wrong things way too seriously.

[Pikanchion]

You're taking typos way too personally.

There are other reasons to suspect BuJ, however.

I don't take all slips seriously, but those are way past typos.

By definition for that to be a "slip" would require it to be true, thereby making both of you scum... It's definitely a typo.

[BuJaber]

Yes, thor was confirmed town.

Lynching mitch would be a mislynch (my opinion), and lynching me would be a mislynch. That's what I meant by 'more'. Sorry if it's not technically the correct word to use but I think of the whole game as a whole not just focus on one day. We can call them potentially bad lynches if it makes you happy. I'm trying to avoid both potentially bad lynches by posting more clearly. Thought it was obvious to everyone I was town after I cleared things up with Ragian in D2. But I'm back under scrutiny and I want to be able to tell myself that I put in the effort to present myself favorably. Ultimately, we're here to win though. I don't have to convince you all I'm town. I have to be able to help town in the best way I can, even if I die along the way.

Also how is it scummy for me to say don't vote for mitch. If you are so keen on lynching him how do you explain this:

Since dakky isn't a bomb it makes no sense for a scummy mitch to pretend to be that scared of getting killed if he voted for him. That is one reason why I don't think mitch is scum, ...

Funny thing is I think it would be really obvious if I'm ever given a scum role because it hasn't happened yet in a game on CC. I fear I'll not know how to play it. (There was one game where I was wolf in one night ultimate werewolf but that's a very different game)
^ The above comment is just for my own amusement. It's not a good defense and I wouldn't disrespect you all by using it. But I wouldn't want you not to laugh when the time comes.

[Thorthoth]

Also how is it scummy for me to say don't vote for mitch. If you are so keen on lynching him how do you explain this:

Since dakky isn't a bomb it makes no sense for a scummy mitch to pretend to be that scared of getting killed if he voted for him. That is one reason why I don't think mitch is scum, ...

(enlarged...) Funny thing is I think it would be really obvious if I'm ever given a scum role because it hasn't happened yet in a game on CC. I fear I'll not know how to play it. (There was one game where I was wolf in one night ultimate werewolf but that's a very different game)
^ The above comment is just for my own amusement. It's not a good defense and I wouldn't disrespect you all by using it. But I wouldn't want you not to laugh when the time comes.

Mitch may have been just using of any excuse to not lynch his scum-mate.

Why would a townie post an unreadably small line about not being scum. It's counter-productive towards convincing town of your innocence. Instead, it just comes of as an arrogant scum-tease.
It's like saying ''Catch me if you can'' .... and we can.

[BuJaber]

Yes you can.

[FloresDelMal]

About inactivity and real life, i do agree that could be beyond silly to lie about it for gain an edge game wise, so i am counting on everyone to be truthful about their IRL issues, and if you are not, shame on you, tsk tsk

Your name. Flores. Not your wordings. Sorry, poorly phrased.

ah yeah, naming yourself after a poetry book does that to you heh, but what can i say, i had this user name since my teens and i am quite fond of it

Flores - Humor me, if you don't vote for me or mitch, do you have a 3rd suggestion?

Now that's a post i can enjoy reading; it is plausible and articulated, i like it ^^ so yeah, I'll humour you, puppy is indeed in my fishy slightly above mitch because he seems less random, its just that it might just me being condescending, but i believe the more skilled and cunning the player, the most dangerous he or she can be as scum, that's why once i sniffed something rotten on pika's poke ball i went all pitbull on him, til i saw myself forced to reluctantly let it go heh, is because i think an smart cookie like MM or pika are so much more deadly when they effectively strategize as scum than someone clumsy and half baked like mitch or dakky who get's himself lynched as pika's justly put it "as a blunder"

Okay, Town, I feel like we have an embarrassment of riches here. Should we vote for Mitch or BuJ. Maybe Mitch today, BuJ tomorrow?

well if we narrow them to just those 2 i think that mitch is provably the lesser threat, even thought i have not seen a single pro town behaviour comming from him, this is my second game with mitch, and in the first one when i went all inquisition on him after he softclaimed he was somehow, and despite all the ridiculous amounts of no sense, insults and scum tells and against all logic, he was indeed town this still kinda piss me off, i am just not confident reading this person, i don't want to repeat history, nor do i want to tire myself by getting overly conscious of a poor player, i could feel much more comfortable getting him checked out with a night action before hanging him to dry, because murphy's laws withstanding he might be a freaking JOAT for all i know

Thought it was obvious to everyone I was town after I cleared things up with Ragian in D2.

BuJ i am sorry to say my dear, but as of now the only obvious "alive" townies are thor and MM, and then still the only one 100 percent town confirmed person is thor, because other than death, the only way to be "obviously town" is to get cleared by the cop, and we don't want to out power roles if is not an absolute necessity.

[Minister Masket]

Also if I recall correctly, MM and hotshot were voting each other on day 1. If we believe MM to be town, it could possibly indicate that hotshot is scum. So we can keep an eye on him.

You do not recall correctly.
Skoffin was the one voting him (for mild reasons at best) and I steered clear so as to not associate myself with her.
What this looks like to me is a very poor attempt to throw shade on HotShot with murky reasoning. What you said could also possibly be townies voting each other on Day 1 which happens all the damn time.

Thorth back I so happy ---NOT--- and first thing he does is vote for me, well can't blame him I was on his ass quite a bit,I thought I had some sort of case against Pika but maybe it is not strong enough. I also can't see a case on the other canadates yet. Since I have 4 votes on me all I can say is that my role could be important for town if needed .

You can survive on 4 votes but you're going to need to clearer about your role than that if you get any more votes y'know.
And that doesn't mean blurt out anything specific either. There's a middle ground there.

[madmitch]

@ MM , I hear you and understand,I don't want to give out any more info at this stage but to say my name and ability kind of makes sense in a funny way

[ZaBeast]

@mitch, you still haven't answered my follow-up questions. I don't know if you're skimming or if I'm just writing too much anymore.
Here they are (with some extra ones now)

Dakky asking about actions does sound scummy but I think he might be on to something.

1- If you were not role-fishing, what was the above quote about?

I find it very strange that BuJaber and Pika are i n such a rush to hang Dakky, scum mates maybe ? Well I am not going to hammer than get killed if he is killing the hammer, so if you two think it is scummy to want to stay alive to bad,I don't trust either of you now, just trying to figure which one is scummier than I will place a vote on one of you

2- Why would BuJ and Pika be scummy for trying to get dakky lynched,since you FOSed him and said this later on?

I'm also not sure why you flip between MM and HS, and your unwavering support of dakky this entire day has been somewhat suspicious (defending him long before we got his claim). That too seems suspicious mitch.

Believe me I have not supporting Dakky and I was going to vote for him until he came out with his claim, I don't want to die early again and granted you have not played in games with Dakky and myself, if you did you would see Dakky is always on my ass and loves to get me killed one way or the other

3- How is the emphasized part true, since you said that earlier?

FOS against Dakky and Rags for asking about who did what? but why was Dakky voted for and not Rags ? they are both guilty, I can relate to what Flores (that little ray of sunshine...Not ) said because I take a while to read and post,I am a little older than most or all of you,I remember having a phone on the wall with a crank ,our number was 1 long crank and 3 short ones,no shit guys ,anyway I am torn between H.S. and MM from D1 ,not quite sure who to vote for yet and I will wait for a while

[Thorthoth]

By definition for that to be a "slip" would require it to be true, thereby making both of you scum... It's definitely a typo.

Point taken, I was misusing the term 'slip'. I believe the correct word would be 'misdirect'.

well if we narrow them to just those 2 i think that mitch is provably the lesser threat, even thought i have not seen a single pro town behaviour comming from him, this is my second game with mitch, and in the first one when i went all inquisition on him after he softclaimed he was somehow, and despite all the ridiculous amounts of no sense, insults and scum tells and against all logic, he was indeed town this still kinda piss me off, i am just not confident reading this person, i don't want to repeat history, nor do i want to tire myself by getting overly conscious of a poor player, i could feel much more comfortable getting him checked out with a night action before hanging him to dry, because murphy's laws withstanding he might be a freaking JOAT for all i know

A nice summary of the mItch paradox. If the town consensus switches to Bujaber or another plausible candidate, I'll take my vote off mitch.

[HotShot53]

Well, since I've been absent for a bit, probably the best way to rejoin the flow is to go through everyone and give my opinions. Might not have time to get everyone in one post, but here goes:

(well, I didn't even get as far as I thought I would before falling asleep in my chair... so I will just make the full post tomorrow)

[madmitch]

@ Zabeast I am sure I explained them posts, but I am not going back to reread30 pages of posts for you,quit flogging a dead horse AND GIVE ME A BREAK,this is sounding like a witch hunt SO BACK OFF

[ZaBeast]

I thought I might give a rundown of the different arguments for voting the main lynch candidates (imo) (stolen from me and other people, for your convenience)
1) MudPuppy:

• My "role fishing" deserves suspicion, yet dakky's doesn't
• BuJ argument: he wanted to unvote thor on D1 because he didn't care who between him and MM would die but could potentially point fingers at the lynchers
• Saying he's a "member of the hesitant/cautious lot", yet is completely fine with dakky shoting at random, as long as he doesn't kill thor

  For the hesitant/cautious lot.. if y'all want to wait for IP's replacement we will wait. But if a deadline is announced I expect a lynch. We have enough good suspects that we can manage this. Any delays then would look very scummy.

  
  I, as a member of the hesitant/cautious lot, am on board with this approach. I prefer to wait for a replacement to join but also don't want to see another no-lynch day.

  
  

  My first choice is BuJaber, second Thor, third Mitch and fourth Flores. MM, DDS also possible, and those not currently voting me. Third group includes Samlen, Puppy and Ragian, so I'll set up three random.org pools and come up with three names and then random them who to kill, so we must be very unlucky if I shoot the cop or some other important power role.
  
  I wonder why no one suggested yet who should I kill, 7 people on my lynch but no one said who to shoot.

  
  I suggest you don't shoot Thor. Pretty fine with whoever you think best after that. Not sure I understand who your groups are or why you group them in that fashion... but whatever floats your boat. If you think random is best, then go for it. Whatever you choose, we'd get some good information.
  
  If you do get lynched, you really can't blame anyone but yourself.... You aren't playing like you want to live.

  
  And these are two consecutive posts
• Trying to restart a dead bandwagon about 48 hours before the deadline (D2). He didn't vote prior to that. Why not do that while it still had a chance to get traction? Especially when his first post of the day contained this quote:
  

  Anyway, none of this "it's another D1" nonsense... it's D2 and we need to string someone up.

  
  At this point, any wagon on someone other than dakky would have resulted in either a speed lynch or a no lynch, possibly without the lynchee having even the possibility to claim. Also, I don't see how he could think MM is less guilty of trying to fly under the radar than HS.
• Posts sparingly, and sometimes fluff

2) BuJ

• Proposes 3 ways to end D1, two of them basically being starting a quick bandwagon (post)
• Soft-claiming a useless/not in the setup dwarf while there was no reason to do so
• "Mason-fishing"
• Thought the one with the most votes would get lynched at the end of the day, yet voted for MudPuppy, a case that was unlikely to gain traction. Therefore, the argument he made with MudPuppy can be applied to him. He wanted to not vote for any of the two persons that had the most votes so he could throw fingers around when one of them ended up being lynched.
  And it seems he kinda wanted to, with his post during N1
  

  LV, did the day end with no lynch because with KJ's vote it would have been 4-4 between HS and no lynch?

• Is on the dakky wagon (and was convinced he was scum) <---I actually wouldn't hold it against him, it's not my point, but it has been made
• Skimming? He didn't realized Flores suspected pika before he tried to "bait" her.

2') mitch

• Inconsistent with his posts at best
• Basically everything he did D2

Now, I like what I've seen so far from mitch in D3. He did try to make a case on pika and didn't try to go on an easy BW like D2. The answers he gave made sense. I don't think he explained his role-fishing (he just said he hasn't), but oh well. He soft-claimed a power-role, so I'd rather not lynch him yet since I he might be useful to town. And as Flores said, he is surely not the most dangerous scum out there, if he is one of them. I still feel like too many people are hinting at being a power role for the numbers of spots left in pika's list though. I believe the scumminess is strong in MP, so I'll go back to him Unvote Vote MudPuppy. Note that I'll switch back to whoever of the three has the most votes if a deadline draws near, but I'd rather lynch MP (2nd place is probably close to a tie between mitch and BJ)

[Pikanchion]

He soft-claimed a power-role, so I'd rather not lynch him yet since I he might be useful to town.

I see soft-claiming a power role (especially in a manner like this) as a scummy action in itself, you don't commit to anything while trying to put others off from focusing on you. Anybody who has yet to claim VT or an otherwise redundant role "might be useful to town", so somebody proclaiming themselves to be useful to town without any evidence should not be treated favourably on the merit of that alone.

[Ragian]

I want input from hotshot before we move on...

[FloresDelMal]

I believe the scumminess is strong in MP, so I'll go back to him Unvote Vote MudPuppy. Note that I'll switch back to whoever of the three has the most votes if a deadline draws near, but I'd rather lynch MP (2nd place is probably close to a tie between mitch and BJ)

nicely put zabeast, i will also keep myself flexible, and i will switch my vote if needed, but ATM my vote is staying where it is and FOS puppy, seriously there is a limit to how inconsistent one can be, caution and trigger happy just don't add up

[ZaBeast]

He soft-claimed a power-role, so I'd rather not lynch him yet since he might be useful to town.

I see soft-claiming a power role (especially in a manner like this) as a scummy action in itself, you don't commit to anything while trying to put others off from focusing on you. Anybody who has yet to claim VT or an otherwise redundant role "might be useful to town", so somebody proclaiming themselves to be useful to town without any evidence should not be treated favourably on the merit of that alone.

I'd keep my vote on him if it was on anybody else than mitch. I'm just not sure enough that his scumminess is due to him actually being scum, or playing poorly like flores mentionned, so I don't want to risk it for now. I feel like there are other just as good lynch candidates anyways.
One also has to wonder whether skoff was killed due to his vote on mitch, either for framing him, or because scummy mitch wanted to get rid of him.

[ZaBeast]

On the other hand, I think getting a full claim from him (mitch) could be an idea. He'd need to commit more than just saying he's useful, and that would allow other people to call him out for it if his claim doesn't make sense. He already outed himself as a PR, so if he isn't scum, they'll know he's telling the truth anyways. What I'm basically saying is I think town could get more info than scum if he claims.
So I'm really on the fence regarding mitch.

[Ragian]

I don't think Mitch claiming right now is a good thing. I think he's town.

@Beast & Flores, let's say we lynch MP. Who would you suspect as his scumbuddies if he flips scum? And whom would you think are defo town?

[Thorthoth]

The townish* vote seems to be getting split three ways.
(Four, if I count Minister's vote on Ragian. MM, please elaborate more on that).

• mitch... If mitch is plays this way and he's town; this reveals a major flaw in the underlying game dynamics.
• Bujaber... not as crazy as mitch, but also giving obvious scum signals... Why?
• mudpuppy... His behavior is a little odd. Is he scumarining. His HS vote is slowly becoming more understandable....

@ HS: No more excuses. Now is the time read through it all, and provide your review and opinions. I hate to encourage long posts but you do have a lot to catch up on.

@ Ragian... well you didn't ask me... but maybe mitch and BuJ are trying to distract attention away from mudpuppy, or perhaps another more deeply hidden scumlord.

I won't change my vote for now. It's still on mitch, but I will switch as a new consensus is reached, assuming that it still makes sense.