[Official] HP Mafia - MVP: Aage - Archive

[Metsfanmax]

It has been a while. Ill also tip my hat to Storr here. It doesnt necessarily take a good player to see the move to be made there but it does take a good player to pull it off.

Also I just want to highlight this. strike posts something praising Storr after the hammer has been placed but before the scene went up. As scum this would be an absurd move; a large gamble. And then strike dies N1 and flips town. So it would have been pretty easy to vindicate strike as town starting D2, but it also would have been pretty clear that this was a fantastically silly comment to make given how wrong the wagon was.

[WingCmdr Ginkapo]

Hoping there is enough time left as I'd much rather have Mad Eye survive than Argus:

Unvote
Vote StorrZerg

Strikes comment should be viewed alongside this in my opinion. It was remarkable play by Storr to completely overall the quite sensible suggestion from Mudpuppy that Storr should be lynched given that there was massive doubt around Deg and Pershy. It also highlights the massive issue everyone seems to have with ignoring Storr in situations when he is reacting to his skin being threatened. He led town, and was not led by town. That cannot happen again.

The bigger point here, why are you dragging us back onto the subject of Storr? Complain about the sheer quantity of pointless posts and then add some more? Really, you're better than that.

[MudPuppy]

@dd, my bad math accounted for sempai's double vote. In that instance, 1+1=3 for the tie. I unvoted because Pershy got too many votes and I was aiming for No Lynch. I would have preferred a Storr lynch but he was on and I thought a necessary component to saving Severus. I was wrong. I was retabulating votes when day ended but was seconds away from voting deg in hopes of getting back to a tie... But it woudn't have mattered. Not sure if Stor was simply playing me to save his ass (of which I was aware) or playing me to lynch Pershy (of which I knew was a risk but was caught off guard by amount of last second activity). Wondering if scum can communicate during day as that lynch felt like it may have been coordinated.

[Epitaph1]

VOTE COUNT

mtamburini - Pixar, mitch
Pixar - mtamburini, Streaker, degaston, tonka
tonka - dd

With 22 alive, it takes 12 to lynch

I've reset all votes by or on BGtheBrain.

[Metsfanmax]

The bigger point here, why are you dragging us back onto the subject of Storr? Complain about the sheer quantity of pointless posts and then add some more? Really, you're better than that.

That comment was not about Storr. It was about how even people who are experienced at mafia can be dragged into doing something that makes little sense under the right conditions of a mob mentality. I was using it as an example to show Streaker why I have such thorough problems with how this game is being played.

[degaston]

Here are my thoughts on the end of D1. If you don't believe that I'm town, then simply reverse all the conclusions.

After my claim:
jbfloyd switched from pershy to me and said he would be gone for the day.
If he is town - Wanted to make sure there was a lynch on D1. If I flipped scum, it might look like a townish vote.
If he is scum - Added extra insurance that I would be lynched, not too risky since he's not the hammer vote, and there were several others already voting for me.

Mudpuppy switched from aage to Storr
If he is town - Believed my claim, and agreed with me that storr was the best chance for a non-town lynch.
If he is scum - Knew that I would flip town, and wanted to look townish by not voting for me.

dd switched from ragian to Storr
Same reasoning as Mudpuppy?

dd switched from Storr to Pershy
If he is town - Believed my claim more than Pershy's, and thought that there was a better chance of lynching Pershy than Storr.
If he is scum - This switch looks pretty scummy to me because Storr had 4 votes at that point, and Pershy had only 1. If dd and Storr both switched to Pershy, then it's 3 for Storr, 3 for Pershy, and 7 for me, so I'm still likely to be lynched. When I flip town, he could say that we should have voted for Pershy and maybe get another town lynch on D2.

Storr switched from me to pershy
Doesn't matter to him who is lynched as long as it's not him.

Endgame switched from dd to Pershy
If he is town - Says that dd "defended himself nicely"? (where?) same reasoning as Mudpuppy?
If he is scum - Another switch that seems very odd. He was voting to lynch dd - though that did not appear likely on D1. Now he is voting with dd to lynch Pershy? Why?

BG switched from Storr to me
If he is town - No reason given for the switch. Maybe he believed Pershy's claim more than mine?
If he is scum - Seems unlikely. Scum would know that it didn't matter much whether it was me or Pershy who was lynched, and Storr did not appear to be in danger at that point. This is a vote that would draw attention to him if I ended up being lynched.

MudPuppy switched from Storr to Pershy
If he is town - Believed both Pershy and me, and would rather have a tie/no lynch if there was no chance of lynching Storr.
If he is scum - Seems unlikely. Scum would want Pershy or me lynched, but it wouldn't matter which.

Sempai switched from no vote to Pershy
If he is town - Thought Pershy's nameclaim was a little suspicious.
If he is scum - This gives 7 for Pershy, and 8 for me. (assuming both of his votes were for Pershy) He could have felt that it would look suspicious if he didn't vote for one of us at that point, but putting a tie within reach seems risky if he was scum.

Strikewolf switched from no vote to Pershy
We now know he was town. Says he thought that Pershy was slightly scummier. May not have even realized that this gave us a tie, because things were changing very quickly.

aage switched from me to Pershy
If he is town - Didn't know that it was tied, and didn't know who was scummier, but thought that if I flipped town, then his tunneling on me would look suspicious.
If he is scum - Didn't want a tie, so needed to switch to get a lynch

I switched from Storr to Pershy (first without red, then with red.)
I came back at 12:30 and was surprised that the day was not over. Read enough to see that Pershy was the only other option so I switched to him. At the same time,(between my invalid and valid votes), Mudpuppy unvoted to try to negate aage's vote and bring it back to a tie.

Hotshot switches from me to Pershy, and then to Storr after being fp'd
If he is town - Explains his decision pretty well
If he is scum - Knows that it doesn't matter either way, and wants to look town.
End of day 1

So they way I see it:
jbfloyd - Slightly scummy, but not much to go on.
MudPuppy - Strongly town.
dd - Scummy - He was the start of the switch from Storr to Pershy. If he believed me enough to not want me lynched, then I would think he would have worked harder to get Storr lynched than go after Pershy.
Storr - I believe his claim - he's only interested in self-preservation.
EndGame - Scummy - I don't see the justification for his sudden reversal.
BG - Slightly town - his vote doesn't make much sense if he is scum.
Sempai - Town
aage - Slightly scummy - He might have been band-wagoning or trying to avoid a tie. Or just confused because things were changing so rapidly.
Hotshot - Neutral - I can't tell if he meant what he said, or if it was just for show. His votes didn't make any difference at that point.

[degaston]

Oh and since I forgot. Dega, what were your results?

To clarify my role, I think I'm closest to a "Follower". The result I got was that the person I investigated had no wand. I've been assuming that meant that they were just VT or Goon, and had no powers, but it occurred to me this morning that other things - potions, floo powder, etc. could be used to give people powers without wands.

I could say who I investigated if people think it's important, but I thought it would be better to wait in case it could be used later to counter a claim.

[Endgame422]

My vote on dd would have been wasted.
Either pershy or dega was going to be lynched.
Basically my vote on dd was a vote for dega.(ie:ralph nader in 2000)
I thought pershys early claim of snape seemed more suspect than anything from dega.
The whole going for a tie and no lynch thing does not make sense.
Why not just vote no lynch?
As to reads im thinking sempai and his claim and proven DV are strong town.
Im was thinking dega is likely town as well(hence not wanting to lynch him) just based on his claim and now on his result.
I buy storrs 3rd party claim and i wont bother with him much anymore.
Mtams HP claim makes sense to me as well.
Hotshot sticking to storr comes off slightly towny
Im not sure what to make of wing/max as of yet.
Aage jumping off dega last minute there after pushing him so hard seemed suspicious.
MP has my suspicion as well for reasons already mentioned(vote pershy for no lynch?)
Pixar also fairly suspicious for wanting no lynch D1 and to lynch claimed HP day 2.
Madmitch is always hard to read but i think hes town. He has a habit of simplifying votes to whoever seems scummy to him(regardless to their claim or circumstance).
DD im thinking you are likely town. Pushing me for reads only helps town.

[skillfusniper33]

I am not sure how I feel about the soft claim on Pix, but I also don't feel like he saved the day. It could very possibly be that way, but I really doubt their being a Serial killer in this game, and if mafia can kill 2 people it means they are extremely small, which seems unlikely, especially since I can think of about 5-6 members of the death-eaters without thinking to hard.

Who hit me with the curse last night?

@MTam - Was that the present you supposedly sent to Storr?

If yes, then I guess you proved yourself and someone somehow sent it to me.

I am purposely being vague and not stating what the curse is - but I am in no way happy about it!
I hope someone ends up with vomit bertle botte jelly beans.

As for this I actually think it is the death-eaters who gave you this, since Harry would give only helping items for town, and curse sounds like it is hindering you to me. But I can see mafia switching storr with someone since mtam said he was going to target him.

Oh and since I forgot. Dega, what were your results?

To clarify my role, I think I'm closest to a "Follower". The result I got was that the person I investigated had no wand. I've been assuming that meant that they were just VT or Goon, and had no powers, but it occurred to me this morning that other things - potions, floo powder, etc. could be used to give people powers without wands.

I could say who I investigated if people think it's important, but I thought it would be better to wait in case it could be used later to counter a claim.

Based on that information I actually think it sounds more like a flavor cop, but very well could be a follower. Either way this could be very useful later on.

[Talapus]

mtam is still playing like a dick even though he is claiming HP. But seriously I have no idea why some people still push it as no one else has claimed HP. And unless the mod is seriously twisted and didn't put HP in the game but gave the big V that fake claim then the entire argument is a waste of time.

And really, storr as a topic of conversation still. I see it two ways with him. Either A - he really is a survivor and a vocal one that gets lots of attention at that. Which is just fine because we had one kill last night people and that means I think several people targeted storr and mtam and canceled or blocked each others powers. So I would totally buy that whatever mtam claimed to have sent never made it.

The other option is storr is full of BS and has one hell of a fake claim. I mean lets be honest here, Filch was a fairly useless character in the story. Always present, but never really active. Several characters fit that as well but storr is only one so far to come forward and claim it. Could he be a death eater right under our noses and lying to us even now? Absolutely. Do I think it matters regardless at the moment? Hell no. He is drawing far too much attention to himself and someone will again no doubt target him tonight so either way I think looking at him any more is a complete waste of time.

There were however quite a few last minute vote hoppers before the end of day one we may benefit from looking at. Will go back and relook at those tonight and see what stands out.

[madmitch]

not jumping on band wagon still staying with my vote

[WingCmdr Ginkapo]

Has Tonka defended any of those who have claimed town? Its odd, but early in the game he was quite involved, pushing some, defending others. Ok I am on p12, but its odd that he has only pushed those who subsequently have claimed town, and even then backed out of pushing after being called out for odd arguments.

I also want to know why Strike called him the Pro Town Tonka - Whats the back story I dont know?

[Talapus]

I also want to know why Strike called him the Pro Town Tonka - Whats the back story I dont know?

That's from way back in Conquer Club. I'm sure they will share but certainly don't think it has any bearing on this game and alignments.

[WingCmdr Ginkapo]

So most inactive players:

-Pixar
-sniper
-pershy
-madmitch
-mudpuppy
-dd515087

p17 - Streaker - When has activity been a signifier of alignment? Only Madmitch immediately popped up to say hello at this point.

[WingCmdr Ginkapo]

Has Tonka defended any of those who have claimed town? Its odd, but early in the game he was quite involved, pushing some, defending others. Ok I am on p12, but its odd that he has only pushed those who subsequently have claimed town, and even then backed out of pushing after being called out for odd arguments.

I also want to know why Strike called him the Pro Town Tonka - Whats the back story I dont know?

He defends Sempai on p19 when Sempai was at L-3.

[WingCmdr Ginkapo]

UNVOTE
Sempai confirmed town.
Nice to see you kingsley.
Sempai thinks mtam is worth both his votes.
Charm has some suspicion pointing her way as well.

This is scummy Endgame btw everyone. He is getting much better at keeping his play consistent between Town and Scum these days.

Ooh look, lets keep the conversation on these guys who I know to not be scum! Its not a distraction, its an active push in the "correct" direction.

This is p21 just after Sempai has claimed and proved his double vote. The game could have then gone in any direction. End pushed it in this direction. On the same page, when it was clear nobody was taking his prod:

VOTE charm
GTs defense of sempai is making him look very townish so im willing to focus for a moment.
Iguess he could be double voting scum but it all adds up to me kingsleys vote would be respected by the town and carry more weight than a regular student.

[WingCmdr Ginkapo]

So thats me caught up on 22 pages. Tune in tomorrow for part 2.

No means strong pushes here, just some thoughts that may or may not be worth something. Surely more interesting to talk about than the current rubbish.

The current topic I do like, is why has Pix claimed to have stopped a kill, which means Scum will assume Doc (as I am) and possibly Nightkill him, without actually telling Town full information? Dont hang a noose around your neck and then not provide town with full information, unless of course the truth will provide scum more benefit, but I doubt that.

[degaston]

p17 - Streaker - When has activity been a signifier of alignment? Only Madmitch immediately popped up to say hello at this point.

Since always, I think. Though not necessarily a reliable one.
http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Lurking

[degaston]

Sorry about the misquote - doing this from my phone

[strike wolf]

Inactivity and skimming are strange scum tells that Ive always felt come with qualifiers. Ie I dont vote someone for skimming one or two posts. Anyone can miss something in the thread. I dont find general inactivity scummy. Anyone can get busy. However if someone seems to have missed an entire page that is noeworthy as skimming or if it seems to be consistant skimming or if they otherwise missed important points that are difficult to miss for someone reading the thread and trying to be involved. Also if someone is generally inactive but always seems to pop up when their name is mentioned or to place a vote (particularly bandwagon votes) that is suspicious. Almost all general scum tells really have some kind of qualifier though not everyone follows them consistently (I could probably be included in that list). One of the keysto playing mafia as town is determining when the tells actually point to scum and when it might be something else.

As far as calling him The Pro Town Tonka, this really has no bearing on the game but its an old nickname for him. Talapus knows it, Hotshot and Mets probably know it, some others might know it. Generally it comes from the fact that in the old days of mafia before I really became consistently involved, he almost always ended up town and started being called The Pro Town Hero because of it.

So Hotshot is still in this game...the fact that I keep forgetting that does not speak well to his general activity. I still dont really trist Mudpuppy but a quick reread on him has produced little. I feel with Pixars half claim we probably need more information from him but my gut tells me that him claiming in that way was a town move.

I had both Aage and Tonka as town early on in Day 1 but I am willing to take a second look at them.

[HotShot53]

As I said before, anyone trying to get mtam (HP) lynched is just not playing very smart, could almost see the people trying it as more towny than scummy since scum would have to be extra stupid putting themselves out on that lynch, while mtam has been playing in a way that some town could think he's still scum anyway.

And again, as I said before, no reason to lynch storr this early in the day, I'd be fine with lynching him late in the date if we haven't found scum yet, but the preferable alternative is to actually find scum.

Since the purpose of a day 1 lynch is to get information, we should probably use that information... I don't have time right now to go through all 22 currently alive players, so I'll start with the ones on the pershy lynch, since scum are most likely in there, and secondly on the ones remaining on deg, since very possible scum stayed there also.

On the pershy lynch: dazza, dd, Storr, Endgame, sempai, sempai, SW, aage, deg

Dazza - jumped on the storr bandwagon, then the mtam bandwagon, then started the case on pershy for not posting enough. Didn't jump on the deg wagon, said that he though deg was town, so he stayed voting persh even after persh's half claim. Day 2, he hasn't really done anything except defend pix saying this is normal behavior for pix and he town reads pix. Overall, most of his posts have been generic comments, other than his one long read post.... his votes haven't had a ton of substance behind them, especially the bandwagon votes. I'm getting a little scummy vibe from him... could be defending a scum buddy in pix, or trying to gain a town buddy in him, depending if pix is actually town or scum (right now I'm actually leaning slightly town on pix, because I don't think scum would jump on a claimed HP)

dd - forgot about the game for the first week or so, when he joined in it was with a super long 2-part post commenting/giving reads on everything that had happened so far. Tried to lynch storr as the safe day 1 lynch rather than deg, but switched to pershy because he listened to storr saying it was the only possible way to save deg. Day 2 so far, voted got tonk for jumping on and then off the pix wagon. Gave reads on the people voting for pershy, breaking down their votes. Overall, since he started playing has seemed pretty involved and makes sense mostly, I'd lean town on him.

storr - claimed third party survivor, pushed pershy day 1 so people wouldn't switch to him (as would have been the default for many of us if he didn't convince enough people to vote pershy as the only possible option rather than deg). I'll believe him for now, and would leave him as a default lynch if no scum is found on a day

endgame - voted dd, then mtam, then sempai, then charm, back on dd, then voted pershy because "Dd came and defended himself nicely." Never gave an actual reason for voting pershy until day 2 when called on it, he says he did it because a "vote on dd would have been wasted. Either pershy or dega was going to be lynched." Lots of bouncing around there, and that last bandwagon vote with no original explanation is suspicious. His pressuring dd wasn't a bandwagon, but could have been an easy "start a case on inactive so people think I'm towny" move, or could have been an actual towny move. I'd give him a neutral to slight scum read, with more watching needed.

sempai - double voter proven. Seems like a town role, and hasn't done anything especially scummy, so I'll believe he is town.

SW - killed in the night, was town

aage - didn't like the mtam wagon and defended mtam day 1. Voted sempai, unvoted after the claim/proof. voted pershy to keep mtam from being lynched, then switched to deg once that case started growing. Switched back to pershy to keep the stronger claim alive. Is away this week so hasn't posted in day 2 yet. Had a lot of in-deph posts day 1 with reads/arguments/discussions, and sounded towny. Will lean town for now

deg - claimed an investigative type of role, sounded a bit scummy yesterday but recently has made a lot more towny posts, so combined with his claim I'll believe he is town.

I don't have time to analyze the votes left on deg at this point, I'll try to analyze them later today or tomorrow. Out of the above reads I'd say dazza is the most likely scum though, so I'll vote dazza

[HotShot53]

fp by a bunch of people, started that post long ago but kept being interrupted by something called work. Don't think I've ever played with tonka before SW, I've actually only been playing mafia on here for the last half a year to year or so, it only seems like I've been here forever lol

[dazza2008]

Dazza - jumped on the storr bandwagon, then the mtam bandwagon, then started the case on pershy for not posting enough. Didn't jump on the deg wagon, said that he though deg was town, so he stayed voting persh even after persh's half claim. Day 2, he hasn't really done anything except defend pix saying this is normal behavior for pix and he town reads pix. Overall, most of his posts have been generic comments, other than his one long read post.... his votes haven't had a ton of substance behind them, especially the bandwagon votes. I'm getting a little scummy vibe from him... could be defending a scum buddy in pix, or trying to gain a town buddy in him, depending if pix is actually town or scum (right now I'm actually leaning slightly town on pix, because I don't think scum would jump on a claimed HP)

I have explained the votes on Stor and mtam. I realise a few of you don't like it but I don't care. I voted Pershy and said why - normally he is very active and he wasn't here. It seemed like he was hiding. He was busy but still. I never unvoted at the end because I was at work. I don't work in an office or anything like that so I can rarely get online through the day. Obviously I never switched to deg as I thought he seemed town all the way through day 1.

I like that you basically say whatever pix flips I am scum so you can keep this shit case going forever

I have posted my thoughts today and I will look closely at the end of day 1 soon and post my thoughts. Endgame and you(hotshot) were who have stood out as possible scum. Obviously this looks like OMGUS but I don't care about that either.

I will try to post soon but I am busy with work and my girlfriend got rushed into hospital. She is fine but I need to visit her etc. I will post as soon as I can though.

[Streaker]

The bigger point here, why are you dragging us back onto the subject of Storr? Complain about the sheer quantity of pointless posts and then add some more? Really, you're better than that.

That comment was not about Storr. It was about how even people who are experienced at mafia can be dragged into doing something that makes little sense under the right conditions of a mob mentality. I was using it as an example to show Streaker why I have such thorough problems with how this game is being played.

Ok you made your point, but for me personally I don't know any other way to play this game. I'm not very experienced, nor very good at this, but I'm trying. I see things and I call it out, be it rubbish or not in other player's eyes.

However it does not take away the fact that you have contributed little to nothing. If you have issues with how we (and I) are playing, step up and show us the way.
That maybe didn't get the message across like I wanted to, so here something else:

Most experience players in my eyes:
-Storr: going completely strange this game, as a claimed third party. Not worth relying on.
-Mtamb: going absolutely completely mental this game. Worth relying on because of claim, but difficult because of the circumstances.
-Strike wolf: got killed night 1 and is now back in another character. Difficult to form an opinion of for now.
-Aage: the only one I know enough and consider a very good player, was feeling him town on D1 but he was on the wagon end of D1.

These are the ones I know best. I don't mean disregard to the other players.

Doing the best I can under these conditions, and I feel like nobody is really following me on my reads. Half the other players are not playing or are lurking.

Ok wall of text but to summarize: if you don't like how the game is going then step up and participate, dammit.

You actually have no read whatsoever on Pixar? Not buying that.

[WingCmdr Ginkapo]

Mets' point is a mute point.

Strikewolf had early in the game suggested that the game was No Vanilla. This assumption wasnt properly challenged and nobody has actually found evidence of where he got the strange idea from. Deg's investigation last night shows there to at least be players without wands, or without active abilities if I have interpreted it correctly.

We had claims D1 of Kingsley - Double Voter, Mad-Eye & Harry Potter. (If there were anymore please correct me)

So Strikewolf, a town watcher, who believes there to be no vanilla roles, pops up and says "oooh look at me I'm town" and thus takes the nightkill which you have to think would be better served by shooting the claimed Auror... Is this actually a bad play? I think its a really clever unselfish play. It annoys me how many people are very protective of their own skin, when if you are a low power role, stand up and take the hit for the team.

What really bothers me about the level of play, is that when Mtam and Storr were arguing, there was an endless list of people throwing themselves against either one and motoring the pages through. Now we have had a lynch and nightkill very few are actually discussing things. Mafia would have known that Mtam and Storr were non-mafia, so would be quite willing to push those two cases amidst the town confusion of what on earth the two of them were playing at. Now we have three claimed town who are somewhat protected, they are less bothered about pushing it seems.

Pixar's soft claim is somewhat weak, and yet why are the same number of people not pushing for an actual claim? Is it because Mafia know him to be mafia and would rather not push him to hard claim? If so why not create something else to talk about?

Side note: Are there any mafia roles which dont have actives? I suppose mafia goon falls into that category, but they must need a wand to cast avadra kevadra if called upon. Is the person Deg investigated last night confirmed non-mafia? If so, is it beneficial to Town for Deg to say who that was? I am not sure it is at this stage, as the knowledge of a low power non mafia role isnt going to get him nightkilled so he can tell us tomorrow.