PKMN Beach Mafia: Cult Wins

[TimWoodbury]

If you ask me, I'd lynch Tim right away. But, as my previous meta on Bu was wrong, that one might be wrong as well. On the other hand there are people who posted nothing but stayed alive... like HotShot, strike wolf and william18 with 7 posts in all 8 pages of the thread. AoG, mitch and Marashu have 8 posts in all 8 pages. Including those for signing up. The rest were more active. Post count doesn't need to be something important, but the less you post, the less is the chance you'll get caught if you're scum. So I think we should concentrate on someone of those.

and what makes me lynch right away material?? you realize every time you say to lynch me i flip town right

[aage]

Well, I got a nice case to start the day off. Going through yesterday's posts, Rishaed is actually my top candidate for today's lynch at the moment. While there were a few fishy additions to the bandwagon (specifically Tim and Mitch, which I mentioned during D1), I think the case on Rish is stronger. Three points.

A, not because he voted BuJ - but because he defended him, mostly based on nothing-and-he-knows-it:

While I am unsure about how much BuJab is telling us, he is rather forthcoming with information. Hes given a lot of information out so far which is good. Also I've only played up to 4th gen so i have no clue on who is in pokemon go or not. I don't have the phone for it so i cant say. However, I'll put BuJab out as town for now. Hes given out so much information D1 that it would be really risky if he was called out on any of it. Now then, on to the next issue in my mind. We need to move on IMO. We have a partial claim from BuJab, and i'm inclined to trust him at this point, but on the other hand time is very valuable D1 (and every day thereafter), so I propose we move on to somebody else.

Red: First off, he wasn't very forthcoming with relevant information. Anyone can claim a pokemon, doesn't say anything about the game at all. Secondly, why is it good that someone comes out spewing "information"/flavour right at the start of day 1? Like I said, claiming your pokemon doesn't do anything.
Green: Called out on what? At this point he only claimed Graveler, and said that the self-destruct thing was a joke. Who's gonna call him out on it?
Blue: In the posts BuJ made before this post, he advocated random lynching based on vote spreading. The fact that that did not strike Rish as scummy and instead reads him town is wrong, with the information at hand in that moment the read should have been scum.

B, because he drags second wincons into the discussion VERY early, eventually blaming his entire unwillingness to vote BuJ on it:

I've always wondered if sitting on the fence hurt a lot. I guses I should ask Rish since his last post makes him an expert on the subject.

It does. Quite a bit.
On one hand I'd like to vote him b/c we are almost out of time.
On the other I feel like he's a mislynch. I'm not really keen on lynching someone who has one of my stronger town vibes d1.
Also this Secondary WC thing is causing another level of frustration to be analyzed into play. I can't understand why he'd intentionally by his own admission draw so much attention as a bulletproof with an instant claim out of nowhere, when its almost certain that when he claims, he won't get the wagon off of him. I'm suspicious of it. Its ringing alarm bells in my mind like none other. Which is another reason why i'm not really keen on voting him.

"Yeah, it's super scummy what he's doing and I am recognising it as being super scummy... but maybe it's because he wants to look super scummy because of second wincon! They must be town!"
There's some wifom for you.
I personally don't believe anyone's second wincon should be taken into account when figuring out the lynch on day 1. It's a fun game mechanic to add, but it does not matter for the day 1 lynch, especially when someone is behaving as scummy as BuJ was. However, saying BuJ is your strongest town vibe based on this wifom is ridiculous.

C, because he said to agree with several other players, but never followed up on it:
viewtopic.php?p=4841742#p4841742
IB's first case on Mitch, Rishaed resonds with "IB is correct, it's worth noting" and never gets back to it.
viewtopic.php?p=4843044#p4843044
My interrogation of BuJ, he responds with "QFT... for the most part" (but doesn't specify which part), yet insists on his town read on BuJ, basing it on the wifom mentioned in point B.
viewtopic.php?p=4843264#p4843264
Hotshot calling BuJ out on his actions conflicting with his claim, Rish is now on the fence between "giving information = town" (even though he's withholding information and admits this) and "basic player errors". The phrasing of the latter seems to imply that, in this case, Rish still thinks BuJ is town but is making mistakes with his role. That's not much of a fence. Strike called him out on this passive stance, which he responds to by saying BuJ is his strongest town vibe. See point B for analysis on that.



Why does this make him scummy? As I have shown here, Rish's reasons for defending BuJ are scummy or just plain wrong. A townie with no information at his disposal but what is posted in the thread would have no reason to act as Rishaed did. A more likely scenario is Rish being scum and going for some town points by hedging on the entire case whilst continually claiming to believe BuJ, knowing full well that BuJ will not flip scum.



So there you have it. I'll vote Rishaed for form and await his response. I am still open to cases on Tim or Mitch or anything else you guys caught that I didn't, but I don't have time to work those out at the moment.

[TimWoodbury]

Rish, why are you excluding Tim? He writes bad, but till when we will allow that? that is his excuse every game! No one understands what he means and he can be scum as well as town. I don't get it. So if you're consistent in writing crap, then you can get a free pass every game? Good strategy as it looks to me.

I'm not saying I disagree with you on mandy, mitch and marashu, and AoG for hammer (which was not needed, as BuJ would get lynched anyway), just saying to take a deeper view into the situation. If AoG was scum, he wouldn't risk the hammer few hours before a sure lynch. So that was either a masterpiece move or a bad town hammer. I'd stay off AoG for now. That leaves mandy, mitch and marashu.

1st) i never get a free pass because of the spelling actually it almost always gets me killed

2nd) i think at this point we can assume that BuJ was playing for his secondary win condition we shoulda seen it as on hindsight it shoulda been obvious)

[TimWoodbury]

hotshot has been extremely quiet, i dont wanna vote for him but id really love to hear something anything from him. so @Hotshot what is your take on the death of William last night??

and @Dakky my spelling sucks and i know that but does that automatically make me skum, no it dont. So going after me onley based on my spelling and not being able to read it 100% is a scummy move dont yah think?

[HotShot53]

Well, looks like BuJaber got what he wanted... no wonder he refused to claim fully lol. At least him meeting his second win condition doesn't hurt the rest of us too badly... I am a bit afraid though that other town might start going for second win conditions that aren't necessarily helpful to town, which will screw over anyone who is actually trying to find scum.

hotshot has been extremely quiet, i dont wanna vote for him but id really love to hear something anything from him. so @Hotshot what is your take on the death of William last night??

and @Dakky my spelling sucks and i know that but does that automatically make me skum, no it dont. So going after me onley based on my spelling and not being able to read it 100% is a scummy move dont yah think?

William didn't die last night, GregWolf did. Don't have much comment other than it's unfortunate for us, but nothing stood out about it to me. Why do you think William did/should have died last night, did you try to off him?


@Aage, I have also been feeling that rish's posts have been "off", but nothing that I could put my finger on exactly. Your posts sums it up pretty good, so I will join you and vote rishaed

[Iron Butterfly]

W0W WHAT p0st restricti0n,can y0u use zero instead 0f o?

Funny y0u sh0uld say that. Bef0re y0u p0sted this I asked D00m the same questi0n and he said yes. I still have t0 be careful as I make silly mistakes and 0verl00k stuff. I was ab0ut t0 submit and d0uble checked t0 find I had screwed up"t0"

S0 Mitch why the need t0 questi0n the severety 0f my p0st restricti0n? Y0u seem t0 suggest it is n0t because all I have t0 d0 is use 0, which is true. H0wever I had t0 ask t0 find 0ut.

I find it 0dd y0u t00k a vested interest in s0mthing like this while at the same time minimizing it.

[HotShot53]

W0W WHAT p0st restricti0n,can y0u use zero instead 0f o?

Funny y0u sh0uld say that. Bef0re y0u p0sted this I asked D00m the same questi0n and he said yes. I still have t0 be careful as I make silly mistakes and 0verl00k stuff. I was ab0ut t0 submit and d0uble checked t0 find I had screwed up"t0"

S0 Mitch why the need t0 questi0n the severety 0f my p0st restricti0n? Y0u seem t0 suggest it is n0t because all I have t0 d0 is use 0, which is true. H0wever I had t0 ask t0 find 0ut.

I find it 0dd y0u t00k a vested interest in s0mthing like this while at the same time minimizing it.

I would recommend doing a ctrl-f find for o before posting each time, in chrome at least it will then highlight all the o's so you can see if you accidentally have one.

[Iron Butterfly]

*grin* yup that was s0mthing I did n0t kn0w until this game.

S0mthing I find interesting and 0dd. The PR was an initial pain in the arse. n0w we have a w0rk ar0und with the Centrl F and use 0f 0. Why death?

The PR specificly states 3 strikes I die. I tend t0 believe it is a n0n mafia player wh0 perhaps has t0 kill s0me0ne with his c0nditi0ns t0 fullfill their sec0ndary c0nditi0n. Just my the0ry.

[rishaed]

Well, I got a nice case to start the day off. Going through yesterday's posts, Rishaed is actually my top candidate for today's lynch at the moment. While there were a few fishy additions to the bandwagon (specifically Tim and Mitch, which I mentioned during D1), I think the case on Rish is stronger. Three points.

A, not because he voted BuJ - but because he defended him, mostly based on nothing-and-he-knows-it:

While I am unsure about how much BuJab is telling us, he is rather forthcoming with information. Hes given a lot of information out so far which is good. Also I've only played up to 4th gen so i have no clue on who is in pokemon go or not. I don't have the phone for it so i cant say. However, I'll put BuJab out as town for now. Hes given out so much information D1 that it would be really risky if he was called out on any of it. Now then, on to the next issue in my mind. We need to move on IMO. We have a partial claim from BuJab, and i'm inclined to trust him at this point, but on the other hand time is very valuable D1 (and every day thereafter), so I propose we move on to somebody else.

Red: First off, he wasn't very forthcoming with relevant information. Anyone can claim a pokemon, doesn't say anything about the game at all. Secondly, why is it good that someone comes out spewing "information"/flavour right at the start of day 1? Like I said, claiming your pokemon doesn't do anything.
Green: Called out on what? At this point he only claimed Graveler, and said that the self-destruct thing was a joke. Who's gonna call him out on it?
Blue: In the posts BuJ made before this post, he advocated random lynching based on vote spreading. The fact that that did not strike Rish as scummy and instead reads him town is wrong, with the information at hand in that moment the read should have been scum.

B, because he drags second wincons into the discussion VERY early, eventually blaming his entire unwillingness to vote BuJ on it:

I've always wondered if sitting on the fence hurt a lot. I guses I should ask Rish since his last post makes him an expert on the subject.

It does. Quite a bit.
On one hand I'd like to vote him b/c we are almost out of time.
On the other I feel like he's a mislynch. I'm not really keen on lynching someone who has one of my stronger town vibes d1.
Also this Secondary WC thing is causing another level of frustration to be analyzed into play. I can't understand why he'd intentionally by his own admission draw so much attention as a bulletproof with an instant claim out of nowhere, when its almost certain that when he claims, he won't get the wagon off of him. I'm suspicious of it. Its ringing alarm bells in my mind like none other. Which is another reason why i'm not really keen on voting him.

"Yeah, it's super scummy what he's doing and I am recognising it as being super scummy... but maybe it's because he wants to look super scummy because of second wincon! They must be town!"
There's some wifom for you.
I personally don't believe anyone's second wincon should be taken into account when figuring out the lynch on day 1. It's a fun game mechanic to add, but it does not matter for the day 1 lynch, especially when someone is behaving as scummy as BuJ was. However, saying BuJ is your strongest town vibe based on this wifom is ridiculous.

C, because he said to agree with several other players, but never followed up on it:
http://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewto ... 2#p4841742
IB's first case on Mitch, Rishaed resonds with "IB is correct, it's worth noting" and never gets back to it.
http://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewto ... 4#p4843044
My interrogation of BuJ, he responds with "QFT... for the most part" (but doesn't specify which part), yet insists on his town read on BuJ, basing it on the wifom mentioned in point B.
http://www.conquerclub.com/forum/viewto ... 4#p4843264
Hotshot calling BuJ out on his actions conflicting with his claim, Rish is now on the fence between "giving information = town" (even though he's withholding information and admits this) and "basic player errors". The phrasing of the latter seems to imply that, in this case, Rish still thinks BuJ is town but is making mistakes with his role. That's not much of a fence. Strike called him out on this passive stance, which he responds to by saying BuJ is his strongest town vibe. See point B for analysis on that.



Why does this make him scummy? As I have shown here, Rish's reasons for defending BuJ are scummy or just plain wrong. A townie with no information at his disposal but what is posted in the thread would have no reason to act as Rishaed did. A more likely scenario is Rish being scum and going for some town points by hedging on the entire case whilst continually claiming to believe BuJ, knowing full well that BuJ will not flip scum.



So there you have it. I'll vote Rishaed for form and await his response. I am still open to cases on Tim or Mitch or anything else you guys caught that I didn't, but I don't have time to work those out at the moment.

The main reason on why I didn't really want to vote BuJ is that he did spew out a lot of first time information IMO. For a game like this, things like can't swim raises serious question marks on why he would bring it up. Also bringing up too much information D1 is really risky for mafia most of the time, because small details are easier to notice and there isn't a lot of information to piece together to figure out what is safe in the game. Also one thing that I have brought up constantly is the secondary WC. I find it rather odd that while BuJ was said to be semi experienced here, he would make such basic mistakes/WIFOM arguments.
Also just because i agree with a point that some other players make D1, does not mean that I will go completely over my gut feeling about a certain player. And while I may be a little bit conflicting b/c of the fact that my own Secondary WC makes me think about them more, it also highlights my personal bias to paying attention and having alarm bells go off when a semi experienced player seems to be intentionally making mistakes, drawing mass attention to him with a certain role. As someone who can figure out how to get himself lynched when i want to most of the time, it was not exactly hard to see that Something was off. I didn't know what it was, but was tying it mostly into the secondary WC.
and GUESS WHAT..... I was right!!

Also just because i note something doesn't mean that I have to bring it up again immediately when there is nothing else. That is called redundancy. Its pointless, and when i want to agree with someone's post doesn't mean that all of a sudden i have a huge case on them.

[aage]

The main reason on why I didn't really want to vote BuJ is that he did spew out a lot of first time information IMO. For a game like this, things like can't swim raises serious question marks on why he would bring it up. Also bringing up too much information D1 is really risky for mafia most of the time, because small details are easier to notice and there isn't a lot of information to piece together to figure out what is safe in the game. Also one thing that I have brought up constantly is the secondary WC. I find it rather odd that while BuJ was said to be semi experienced here, he would make such basic mistakes/WIFOM arguments.
Also just because i agree with a point that some other players make D1, does not mean that I will go completely over my gut feeling about a certain player. And while I may be a little bit conflicting b/c of the fact that my own Secondary WC makes me think about them more, it also highlights my personal bias to paying attention and having alarm bells go off when a semi experienced player seems to be intentionally making mistakes, drawing mass attention to him with a certain role. As someone who can figure out how to get himself lynched when i want to most of the time, it was not exactly hard to see that Something was off. I didn't know what it was, but was tying it mostly into the secondary WC.

But there was no indication that his scumminess was the result of his secondary win condition, rather than him just being scum. This is the first time you're calling his plays "intentional mistakes", I'd love for you to point out what those intentional mistakes were. It still seems scummy to me that you would read BuJ's behavior as his second wincon as opposed to his alignment on day 1 with no other information.

and GUESS WHAT..... I was right!!

That's kinda my point, town points not granted.

Also just because i note something doesn't mean that I have to bring it up again immediately when there is nothing else. That is called redundancy. Its pointless, and when i want to agree with someone's post doesn't mean that all of a sudden i have a huge case on them.

There's quite a spectrum between having a huge case on something and ignoring it completely, but thanks for the strawman.

[aage]

Also just because i note something doesn't mean that I have to bring it up again immediately when there is nothing else. That is called redundancy. Its pointless, and when i want to agree with someone's post doesn't mean that all of a sudden i have a huge case on them.

There's quite a spectrum between having a huge case on something and ignoring it completely, but thanks for the strawman.

To add to this, you haven't brought up any other cases during day 1 or pursued any leads. So it seems extremely easy to me to disagree with the lynch while you literally have no other suspects and only voted as a joke, which you unvoted somewhere halfway the day.

[rishaed]

The main reason on why I didn't really want to vote BuJ is that he did spew out a lot of first time information IMO. For a game like this, things like can't swim raises serious question marks on why he would bring it up. Also bringing up too much information D1 is really risky for mafia most of the time, because small details are easier to notice and there isn't a lot of information to piece together to figure out what is safe in the game. Also one thing that I have brought up constantly is the secondary WC. I find it rather odd that while BuJ was said to be semi experienced here, he would make such basic mistakes/WIFOM arguments.
Also just because i agree with a point that some other players make D1, does not mean that I will go completely over my gut feeling about a certain player. And while I may be a little bit conflicting b/c of the fact that my own Secondary WC makes me think about them more, it also highlights my personal bias to paying attention and having alarm bells go off when a semi experienced player seems to be intentionally making mistakes, drawing mass attention to him with a certain role. As someone who can figure out how to get himself lynched when i want to most of the time, it was not exactly hard to see that Something was off. I didn't know what it was, but was tying it mostly into the secondary WC.

But there was no indication that his scumminess was the result of his secondary win condition, rather than him just being scum. This is the first time you're calling his plays "intentional mistakes", I'd love for you to point out what those intentional mistakes were. It still seems scummy to me that you would read BuJ's behavior as his second wincon as opposed to his alignment on day 1 with no other information.

and GUESS WHAT..... I was right!!

That's kinda my point, town points not granted.

Also just because i note something doesn't mean that I have to bring it up again immediately when there is nothing else. That is called redundancy. Its pointless, and when i want to agree with someone's post doesn't mean that all of a sudden i have a huge case on them.

There's quite a spectrum between having a huge case on something and ignoring it completely, but thanks for the strawman.

I'm unsure of why i have to point them out, but BuJ said multiple times admittedly that he intentionally chose a playstyle this game to draw attention. Now why you would do that when you are bulletproof normally is beyond me, but since I was convinced he was town D1, and refused to vote him mind you, While the rest of you were convinced he was scum w/ super noob play, I was looking at the viewpoint of if he was town, and reached a different conclusion. I also said that I would have defended him harder except the fact that he had made it impossible. Look at the case mandy made on him. It had almost every scum offense in the book D1. For someone who i was told had some experience thats just unheard of. Even as scum thats unheard of. That and the fact that he went from softclaim in his first post to straight up hardclaiming that very role.
Why is it so hard to believe that I saw what you didn't?

[aage]

He never said he intentionally made mistakes. He only said that he was gonna play in a way that would arouse suspicion - doesn't mean intentional mistakes. Besides, you started advocating for him on page four, put him as town on page five while the post you're referencing about him admitting suspicious playstyle is on page six... You're telling me that you already knew he was intentionally drawing attention to himself through his suspicious plays? What insight you must have.

And when I called him out on the discrepancy between his story and his playstyle...

Had it not occurred to you that I may have a role where 2nd choices help me?

I actually saw the whole case on me happening even before I started posting. I knew I was gonna play in a certain way that's gonna arise suspicion.
I'm normally very talkative and I like to test out new strategies that probably won't work. Since I'm not as free to post as I usually am, on most days I can only check on this late at night. That's why I knew I would try to play a lot faster.Therefore I made a joke about how by posting I would be effectively "self-destructing" which happens to be one of graveller's abilties in the early pokemon gameboy games.

Not gonna guess at your role, it's day one. But considering these claims you're making here and in earlier posts it sounds like you're claiming vengeful town.

Also, the bold part........

This is the last defense I'm making. I don't want to waste time talking about myself more when there are 13 other players. Some of whom are dancing happily in the shadows right now not believing their luck. Y'all feel free to make your conclusions.

There were 3 votes on you at this point, and you admitted that you were gonna play in a way that would arouse suspicion. You're throwing in the towel awful quick for someone who's expecting to be in the hot seat.

Vote mandy

mitch is my 2nd choice. FOS aage and IB.

Reasoning? Are you doing this simply because Mandy and Mitch were tied with you at 3 votes each? Are you calling me and IB out for not posting during the weekend? I thought you just said you wanted to talk about the other 13 players, but here you're pointing fingers with no talk.

You're not really convincing me of your innocence here. Why shouldn't we lynch you?


For the record, I'm not comfortable at all with Tim and Mitch jumping on the wagon.

QFT.. For the most part. I agree with aage here that it is awfully suspicious to put yourself in the hotseat intentionally and not expect this kind of fire on D1. I'm also slightly suspicious about the entire throwing in the towel thing. For now I'll unvote I'm keeping up right now, and while I appealed to move on earlier in the day, it didn't happen. To be fair I still think he's probably town, but he might be playing towards his second WC here.

you agreed with me that it was suspicious. You do bring up the second wincon again in this post, but logically it still does not follow: you agree with the allegations, but still want to drop the case on the off chance he's playing for his second wincon. Bringing up that second wincon over and over resembles one of my own favourite strategies as mafia - zoom in on a technicality specific to the game and rationalise your reads based on that. The strength in that strategy is that it comes across as honest and sometimes even convincing, but is extremely unreliable as a scum/town tell.


Also, I find it amusing that you're continuing to press on the fact that you did not vote for him, even though my entire case exists due to that fact. You are correct, you did never vote him. Didn't doubt him for a second. If you had, you would've voted at any point - you weren't using your vote for anything else anyway.

[rishaed]

Look aage. I thought the information he presented D1, (at least in my eyes), was enough to pin him as a near certain town in my eyes. While i did agree, and still do agree that there were suspicious things about him, I had alarm bells going off in my mind. Between my mind and my gut I didn't feel like voting him was justified. I probably would have even tried to defend him if he hadn't of made it so darned impossible.

[TimWoodbury]

Well, looks like BuJaber got what he wanted... no wonder he refused to claim fully lol. At least him meeting his second win condition doesn't hurt the rest of us too badly... I am a bit afraid though that other town might start going for second win conditions that aren't necessarily helpful to town, which will screw over anyone who is actually trying to find scum.

hotshot has been extremely quiet, i dont wanna vote for him but id really love to hear something anything from him. so @Hotshot what is your take on the death of William last night??

and @Dakky my spelling sucks and i know that but does that automatically make me skum, no it dont. So going after me onley based on my spelling and not being able to read it 100% is a scummy move dont yah think?

William didn't die last night, GregWolf did. Don't have much comment other than it's unfortunate for us, but nothing stood out about it to me. Why do you think William did/should have died last night, did you try to off him?


@Aage, I have also been feeling that rish's posts have been "off", but nothing that I could put my finger on exactly. Your posts sums it up pretty good, so I will join you and vote rishaed

You are corrext aboyt it being greag not William,i had just seen williams name in a post and william got stuck in my head. And no i did not try to off william or anyone else last night.

[madmitch]

I find the posts between Aage and Rishaed amusing and both have good points ,but I don't like your quick jumping on the wagon Hotshot , can you give more info why? To all pokemon gamers ,are there good and bad pokemons ? I do not know enough about them to say for sure someone is 100% town or mafia.

[mandalorian2298]

W0W WHAT p0st restricti0n,can y0u use zero instead 0f o?

I would recommend doing a ctrl-f find for o before posting each time, in chrome at least it will then highlight all the o's so you can see if you accidentally have one.

Firstly, a Mafia career first for me: I am pretty sure that Mitch and HotShot are Town!

Here is the situation: IB is one misspell away from croaking. Had nobody done anything to help him, there is a chance that he would bite the dust and no one would give it much thought, especially since Tracker/Watcher is dead so whoever gave him the PR is unlikely to be identified until he/she is lynched.

Not only is there no need for scum to help him out, it is against their best interest, pressuming that IB is not one of them, to leave the mine intact and hope that he steps on it. One more Townie dead and no information to offset the loss. If, on the other hand, IB flips Scum, it would be INSANE for his scum buddies to publicly help him out like that.

Given how Mitch and Hotshot DID not only help him out but pretty much ensured that IB won't get killed by his PR, I am as sure as one can be in a game of Mafia that these two players are Town.

[mandalorian2298]

In other news, Aage's case on rish is TOLD YOU SO! very well argumented and convincing. I especially like the red, green and blue argument. Saying the same thing in different words multiple time in one post is IMO a sign that someone is padding his word count in order to appear more active then they really are. vote rish

[Marashu]

madmitch - T'was the pride of the peaches. Seriously, I have no idea for him. Likes to hide behind flavour as mafia, but likes to use flavour to find mafia as town. This tactic is especially useless in this game, since the mod explicitly said that flavour will not hold any clues. Neutral read.
dakky - Let's see how many more times he's going to make a meta read. D1, I liked his case on BuJ. Near the end of D1 he starts to suspect personal wincon, and says that he might be town even though "with all those non full claim thing, I still think he is scum". Then he posts that strange post after the hammer where he's saying that BuJ was obviously town, before the flip. For all we knew, BuJ's death post could have been him as mafia trying to confuse town. D2, decides to narrow his focus down to 7 players (58% of living players - 64% of living players not counting himself). I disagree with him on his view that AoG likely isn't mafia because of the hammer, because BuJ would be lynched whether or not AoG hammered, so it could have been a way to get some quick town cred. Neutral read on him right now.
Hotshot - Quiet. Hides behind a joke vote most of the day, then pushes BuJ to claim. Jumps on the rishwagon D2 right away, but helps out IB. Neutral, but slightly leaning town.
Iron Butterfly - didn't get on board the BuJwagon, and called dakky on his woe-is-me-nobody-listens-to-the-newbie attitude. D2 he is, understandibly, distracted by his PR. Wants to look at the BuJ wagon for mafia, but hasn't done so yet. Despite this, I'm getting a town read from him.
mandalorian2298 - I'm reading him as town. Built a case D1, and when it got nowhere, pushed hard to get more people to vote for BuJ.
william18 - has not said much, and 2 of his posts were just edits, but nothing terribly scummy in them - stayed off the BuJ wagon fearing a nuke. Slight town read.
Army of GOD - Didn't really add anything D1. Starts with a FoS on mitch which becomes a vote, then hammers to end the day a few hours early. One thing I don't like is how he was keeping his vote on mitch for no real reason, even though he says he didn't like BuJ's defense. Neutral read (I know this is different from what I said in my last post, but in my defense, I had just woken up and tend to make poor reads at 6AM)
aage - Cleared up the confusion on the mandy case D1, and starts D2 off with a really compelling case against rish. Reading him as town.
strike wolf - getting a neutral leaning mafia read on him. Says he doesn't like the idea of splitting the vote, then goes and splits the vote because he is looking for cases among those who do not have many votes, even though he thinks BuJ is acting like mafia. Makes a slight case on Tim, doesn't push it, so his attempt to keep scumhunting is weak and nominal. (Like what I said with AoG, this was made after re-reading posts early in the morning, and I'm not really a morning person)
rishaed - aage's case on him is really solid, in my opinion. One thing I want to add, though. It's really strange that he adds mitch to the list of people driving the lynch on BuJ. He omits Tim, who probably drove the lynch as much as mitch, dakky (probably because he was addressing him), HotShot, and aage. Most likely mafia, but I just wanted to include that list for future consideration.
TimWoodbury - messing up who was NK'd was really weird, but I feel like mafia Tim would know who was NK'd. His reasoning has been all over the board, so I don't know what to make of him, but I'm a little more willing to believe that he is town.

I have no idea why mafia would choose to kill off an inactive like greg. Right now, assuming 3 mafia, I would have to say my guess at mafia are rish, strike, and maybe dakky? Less convinced about dakky than the other two. At the very least, I'm ok with trying to push rish to claim. Vote Rish, which I think puts him at L-3.

[dakky21]

Actually, Aage's case on Rish is quite interesting. If Rish is scum, he could have easily gone for town credits while defending BuJ and not voting him, to have material to defend himself if/when it comes to it.

On the other hand, Rish could be town and everything what he says in his defense is true, while Aage is trying to frame him for something he didn't done (which is Aage's main point, Rish not voting and defending a townie because he knows BuJ is town, seems a bit farfetched)

Hotshot jumping on the wagon and then Mandy (remember, mandy was first to jump onto BuJ wagon) is also interesting... they were in the first wagon as well as aage... and so the current wagon may be a deception for others to join them... aage making the case, they jumping, others follow... kill another townie and then be like, ahem, our bad...

fp'ed by Marashu tl;dr, but I see another join on the wagon... from the first wagon as well.

[rishaed]

So I'm going to claim before L-2 Just so I get not get hit with a "we ran out of time, so i guess lynching him is the best option."
I am Ninetails. (by request) My move is FireSpin and I'm essentially a jailkeeper.
now as Town i have a conflicting 2ndary wincon.
As a fire pokemon I hate water, so I want to lynch water pokemon.
It is the main reason why i have been super sensitive about the entire 2 WC thing b/c it is conflicting with my goals as town. It is not to lynch mafia directly but water type pokemon.

[dakky21]

So I'm going to claim before L-2 Just so I get not get hit with a "we ran out of time, so i guess lynching him is the best option."

Day 2 is a majority or random lynch in case of a tie just as D1 so jumping on the wagon when the deadline is close is same as not jumping on a wagon when someone has most votes. That kinda means who jumps on the wagon early is safe from being accused of wagoning, while their vote still counts towards majority. Why I'm saying this - because if the day ended now, you would be lynched at L-3. You didn't have to claim yet. Looks like a desperate move.

I am Ninetails. (by request) My move is FireSpin and I'm essentially a jailkeeper.
now as Town i have a conflicting 2ndary wincon.
As a fire pokemon I hate water, so I want to lynch water pokemon.
It is the main reason why i have been super sensitive about the entire 2 WC thing b/c it is conflicting with my goals as town. It is not to lynch mafia directly but water type pokemon.

You're not Ninetails... Ninetales probably. Anyway, I am wondering how exactly is your 2nd WC conflicting with your goals as town? You don't want to vote on someone as you may lynch town? Isn't that mechanics in every game if you're town? Your 2nd WC probably isn't "first lynch you're on must be a water pokemon" ... but rather be on a lynch on one water pokemon during the whole game, as the opposite would practically block you from voting if you're aiming at 2nd WC. If that is so, you'd need to survive till someone claims water pokemon and then wagon on the lynch. So I believe you are Ninetales, but don't believe your second win condition. I still won't change a vote to you, but have a slight FOS.

[madmitch]

Confirm and also.... I just want hugs..... La la la la!

He might be telling the truth,Ninetales is supposively one of the most huggable pokemons. But also agree with Dakky about the second w/c , it just does not feel right.

[strike wolf]

There is a difference between splitting the vote and wanting more discussion Marashu. I didn't push hard on Richard or Tim yesterday because I saw no reason at the time to derail the Buj wagon. He was acting scummy and given the results of his flip, it would appear he had intentionally been so. So yes I wanted to encourage discussion on a day 1 where we basically lynched one of the first two targets to come up and was only 7 pages.

@dakky: actually I have little doubt that Rish is telling the truth about his secondary win condition. I mean he is still likely mafia (jail keeper is a relatively safe mafia fake claim) but there's not too much reason to lie about having a controversial win condition where you are basically encouraging any water pokemon to Lynch you. Yet I digress as this is mostly only really relevant if Rish flips town.

@Rish:who did you jail keep last night?

Now I guess I should come forward. I am Unown (by request) master of vowels and I took away o from IB. it was nothing personal IB, I just recalled hotshot giving you a PR day 2 of our last mafia together and it ended with you leaving a bunch of scum tells so I thought I might try to see if it worked twice.

[dakky21]

Let's take a look at a voting pattern on D1...
BuJaber - dakky21, Marashu, mandalorian2298, TimWoodbury, madmitch, Hotshot53, aage, Army of GOD

And then on D2... for now....
rishaed - aage, HotShot53, mandalorian2298, Marashu

four of them from first wagon are on the second and no one else. People who didn't vote BuJaber didn't vote Rish yet as well.

Now let's see what Marashu has to say about those four (three without him):

aage - Cleared up the confusion on the mandy case D1, and starts D2 off with a really compelling case against rish. Reading him as town.
Hotshot - Quiet. Hides behind a joke vote most of the day, then pushes BuJ to claim. Jumps on the rishwagon D2 right away, but helps out IB. Neutral, but slightly leaning town.
mandalorian2298 - I'm reading him as town. Built a case D1, and when it got nowhere, pushed hard to get more people to vote for BuJ.

So Marashu reads town or leaning town all three of them who voted and wagoned onto BuJaber and made a wrong decision. Now wagoning on Rishaed for what? For aage making a case on him for NOT voting a town player? I just don't seem to get it. aage makes a case and these three from previous mislynch quickly stick to the wagon! WTF ?!

As I already said, D2 lynch will happen anyway, so it's most favorable to be first to vote and wagon, since later votes won't count as important, as someone with most votes will get lynched. There's no need for 5th or 6th or 7th vote as long as other votes are split around players. So out of 12 living players, 4 are on rish, if others split the votes (my vote on Marashu etc.) they can have rish lynched with only 4 votes. Thing to consider.

I'm staying on Marashu for supporting the D1 lynch and now having good thoughts on wagon on Rish and having bad thoughts about those who didn't want to lynch BuJaber D1.