PKMN Beach Mafia: Cult Wins

[madmitch]

We better pull up our socks or we are going to lose town,Yes I am saying I am town and believe that Dakky is also. I claim Tim was town and was right but I was off on Rishaed. I also don't like Aage 's reamark about a vig. Why would he bring that up unless he knows more than he's letting on . Marashu and I have both asked Strikewolf about his move on I.B. and have received no answer. Again was that your 2nd w/c or did you do that to him because you knew he was town? Until you prove otherwise I think you are mafia and say [b]VOTE STRIKEWOLF[/b]

[dakky21]

Considering yesterday's lynch, I don't think I have to explain anything to you.

So he has so much town credit now he can command and don't explain anything? How and why would he know it was a vigi shot instead of mafia kill? Only if he was mafia and his kill didn't get through. Lost in a lie aage.

Just asking this to clarify, so I can understand your argument. You're basically saying that aage is mafia? So, N1, aage, rish, and whoever else is mafia came up with the plan for aage to build a case on and lead a lynch against rish to get town credit?

Yep, they're smart enough to do that, and after all, everyone has 2nd win condition... aage's could have had "lead a lynch on a fellow mafia member" or something like that, and he did it perfectly. Just sayin', don't trust everything what is served on your table.

I know that mafia didn't had a kill this night, because I targeted Tim. That's why I wonder how aage knows there's a vig, when I did the kill. Since watcher/tracker is dead, the only possible way of knowing there is a vig is... being a mafia and not succeeding in a night kill. They obviously got blocked, so that slip of his is remarkable.

Long story short:

vote aage

[william18]

Considering yesterday's lynch, I don't think I have to explain anything to you.

So he has so much town credit now he can command and don't explain anything? How and why would he know it was a vigi shot instead of mafia kill? Only if he was mafia and his kill didn't get through. Lost in a lie aage.

Just asking this to clarify, so I can understand your argument. You're basically saying that aage is mafia? So, N1, aage, rish, and whoever else is mafia came up with the plan for aage to build a case on and lead a lynch against rish to get town credit?

Yep, they're smart enough to do that, and after all, everyone has 2nd win condition... aage's could have had "lead a lynch on a fellow mafia member" or something like that, and he did it perfectly. Just sayin', don't trust everything what is served on your table.

I know that mafia didn't had a kill this night, because I targeted Tim. That's why I wonder how aage knows there's a vig, when I did the kill. Since watcher/tracker is dead, the only possible way of knowing there is a vig is... being a mafia and not succeeding in a night kill. They obviously got blocked, so that slip of his is remarkable.

Long story short:

vote aage

I think that mafia sacrificing their own to gain cred seems very implausible.

With regards to the bolded part, before the game started, Yoshi said that all scenes will be flavour only, no details given out. Secondly, the mention of acid no longer present, and the mafia being feeble, I think that what it meant was that with rish dead(the victreebel pokemin used acid to capture its prey) the mafia had to resort to their water pokemon to commit the act. Which makes sense since rishard is unblockable, why not use him first since he ignores doctors and roleblockers. All this paired with you claiming to commit the kill, makes me think you are absolutely mafia, using a last ditch attempt. Makes sense why you didn't want to vote rish, and gave him every benefit of the doubt, to a ridiculous degree.

Vote Dakky

[HotShot53]

I assume that is your soft claim, that you are the vig dakky? You might as well full claim, because you're going to have to sooner or later. As I said before the last lynch, if he was scum you probably are also, and your last-minute hammer of him is usually more of a scum move than a town move. So I will vote dakky

Is anyone else worried about the mod throwing in the "cult game" reference? Is he trying to scare us because we are starting to hunt down the scum too fast? lol

[madmitch]

Voting for Dakky is the wrong move ,I know

[HotShot53]

Voting for Dakky is the wrong move ,I know

Know as in mod told you somehow? Or "know" as in you just think so?

[aage]

How and why would he know it was a vigi shot instead of mafia kill? Only if he was mafia and his kill didn't get through. Lost in a lie aage.

It's not so hard to deduce that mafia would never in a million years kill Tim after yesterday's wagon, is it? Over half the town had expressed suspicions against him. That makes his death a town kill, not a mafia kill, regardless of the outcome.

Yep, they're smart enough to do that, and after all, everyone has 2nd win condition... aage's could have had "lead a lynch on a fellow mafia member" or something like that, and he did it perfectly. Just sayin', don't trust everything what is served on your table.

I know that mafia didn't had a kill this night, because I targeted Tim. That's why I wonder how aage knows there's a vig, when I did the kill. Since watcher/tracker is dead, the only possible way of knowing there is a vig is... being a mafia and not succeeding in a night kill. They obviously got blocked, so that slip of his is remarkable.

See above. But thanks for claiming, duly noted.

I'm amused that you believe the only way I could have lead the lynch on Rish and the only way I could believe Tim's death to be a town kill is that I'm mafia, rather than actually being that good at the game. I'll take it as a compliment.

In all honesty, I do believe you to be town Dakky. I don't believe you would've acted the way you did on D2 if you were rishaed's scumbuddy. Pardon me for slightly bullying you into a claim, but I like to use momentum when I have it and I'd like to know everything you know. Overnight I figured you must've been IB's mason buddy, since I assumed from your "ebwop"-post that you were confident enough in your defence to risk hammering Rish. Vigilante is almost as good a claim, though. As I said before I believe Tim's death to be a vig shot and if you claim that shot I won't vote you, especially considering this post of yours. If you want to keep your vote on me, that's fine, but I expect you to help town in progressing other cases as well.


Now as for those who did... William and Hotshot seemed town enough to me when they hopped on the Rish wagon D2. William would be the one I'd add question marks to, but not necessarily scummy. I'd recommend you both to unvote though, yesterday was cut extremely short very fast and multiple people didn't get the chance to weigh in.

[dakky21]

I assume that is your soft claim, that you are the vig dakky? You might as well full claim, because you're going to have to sooner or later.

Since there are 2nd winning conditions, full claiming for example a fire or water or fighting pokemon will just give someone a reason to vote me. I can just add that I couldn't use my shot N1, my power started N2. Also, I have 50% chance with each shot to be turned into a SK. I'm still town, though. If I don't pick a target, someone will be randomly chosen.

As I said before I believe Tim's death to be a vig shot and if you claim that shot I won't vote you, especially considering this post of yours. If you want to keep your vote on me, that's fine, but I expect you to help town in progressing other cases as well.

Actually, after I claimed that shot, if you're scum, of course you won't vote me, when you can lynch another townie and NK me. If you're town, well, voting me is bad as mafia will try to NK me anyway, so we can have another shot at finding and lynching scum. So in either case I'm either lynched today, or killed during N3.

[william18]

I assume that is your soft claim, that you are the vig dakky? You might as well full claim, because you're going to have to sooner or later.

Since there are 2nd winning conditions, full claiming for example a fire or water or fighting pokemon will just give someone a reason to vote me. I can just add that I couldn't use my shot N1, my power started N2. Also, I have 50% chance with each shot to be turned into a SK. I'm still town, though. If I don't pick a target, someone will be randomly chosen.

As I said before I believe Tim's death to be a vig shot and if you claim that shot I won't vote you, especially considering this post of yours. If you want to keep your vote on me, that's fine, but I expect you to help town in progressing other cases as well.

Actually, after I claimed that shot, if you're scum, of course you won't vote me, when you can lynch another townie and NK me. If you're town, well, voting me is bad as mafia will try to NK me anyway, so we can have another shot at finding and lynching scum. So in either case I'm either lynched today, or killed during N3.

Alright, so you lost the first 50/50, so you couldn't kill that night? You won the second 50/50 for night 2, and choose tim, conveniently on the same night when mafia fail to kill. So assuming there is a roleblocker and a doctor, with 10 people alive on night 2 the odds of you killing while mafia doesn't is:
(0.5) X (2/10) *{1/10 chance for doctor to visit target + 1/10 chance of roleblocker to block mafia} = 10%

Ofcourse this could very well be a big coincidence, but I think it's far more likely you are mafia, especially with the way you acted during rishaeds lynch.

This whole claim that mafia would never kill Tim is not very convincing. First of all, any suspicion on him boiled down to to him, typing bad:

Rish, why are you excluding Tim? He writes bad, but till when we will allow that? that is his excuse every game! No one understands what he means and he can be scum as well as town. I don't get it. So if you're consistent in writing crap, then you can get a free pass every game? Good strategy as it looks to me.

This was quickly thrown out after aage presented the case on rish, so I dont see how half the town suspected tim? Only dakky proposd this while only Marashu and Aage said they were open to lynching tim. Thats not half the town. So killing him seems like a good idea since there was no solid arguments towards him that would result in a lynch, and he also doesn't have town rep to garner the doctors trust. Aka a safe kill.

I don't think there was a vig at all, I think dakky is a scum that killed Tim. The chance of him killing town with respect to his current role while mafia doesn't is 10%. Very unlikely.

[william18]

Actually, the odds are (0.5)(2/9) = 11%

Since roleblockers and doctors cant target themselves, I'm assuming

[dakky21]

Alright, so you lost the first 50/50, so you couldn't kill that night? You won the second 50/50 for night 2, and choose tim, conveniently on the same night when mafia fail to kill. So assuming there is a roleblocker and a doctor, with 10 people alive on night 2 the odds of you killing while mafia doesn't is:
(0.5) X (2/10) *{1/10 chance for doctor to visit target + 1/10 chance of roleblocker to block mafia} = 10%

Your logic is broken. My role said that I will become vigilante N2, first night I didn't have any powers. It's not 50/50 to kill someone, it's 50/50 whether should I remain town or be converted to a 3rd party Serial Killer. After N2, I got a confirmation that I'm still town. My 2nd WC is to kill one scum while town, or to kill one town while SK.

Moreover, mafia at later stages isn't a game of chances, because people have reads. So if there is a roleblocker, it's not 1/10 to block mafia, because that player has his own list of reads and thoughts, and eliminated possible town people while choosing who to block. Same for doctor, if there is one, he may have protected possible mafia target and I repeat, it's not 1/10 again.

[william18]

Alright, so you lost the first 50/50, so you couldn't kill that night? You won the second 50/50 for night 2, and choose tim, conveniently on the same night when mafia fail to kill. So assuming there is a roleblocker and a doctor, with 10 people alive on night 2 the odds of you killing while mafia doesn't is:
(0.5) X (2/10) *{1/10 chance for doctor to visit target + 1/10 chance of roleblocker to block mafia} = 10%

Your logic is broken. My role said that I will become vigilante N2, first night I didn't have any powers. It's not 50/50 to kill someone, it's 50/50 whether should I remain town or be converted to a 3rd party Serial Killer. After N2, I got a confirmation that I'm still town. My 2nd WC is to kill one scum while town, or to kill one town while SK.

Moreover, mafia at later stages isn't a game of chances, because people have reads. So if there is a roleblocker, it's not 1/10 to block mafia, because that player has his own list of reads and thoughts, and eliminated possible town people while choosing who to block. Same for doctor, if there is one, he may have protected possible mafia target and I repeat, it's not 1/10 again.

Alright, so today, the chance your still town is (0.5)(0.5) = 1/4

Your gonna be an sk eventually, which is very bad for town, depending on how the mod makes them. I don't believe your claim to be sk/vig, but if its true, atleast we kill an sk.

[aage]

Since there are 2nd winning conditions, full claiming for example a fire or water or fighting pokemon will just give someone a reason to vote me. I can just add that I couldn't use my shot N1, my power started N2. Also, I have 50% chance with each shot to be turned into a SK. I'm still town, though. If I don't pick a target, someone will be randomly chosen.

That's a pretty bastard role. You're either being very forthright or very suicidal. Also, I don't believe any protective or blocking roles have died yet, so it seems odd to assume you would die N3. And why would the mafia try to kill you if you are forced to kill someone every night? That's just more kill power at good odds for them. I think you're looking at this in a more bleak way than you need to, for the short term anyway... On the long term, I wonder based on your current claim if we can even risk leaving you alive until the endgame.

How are you suggesting we deal with your roleclaim if you can flip on us at a moment's notice?

I dont see how half the town suspected tim? Only dakky proposd this while only Marashu and Aage said they were open to lynching tim. Thats not half the town. So killing him seems like a good idea since there was no solid arguments towards him that would result in a lynch, and he also doesn't have town rep to garner the doctors trust. Aka a safe kill.

Tim was following no leads, had claimed no powers and was pointed out as scummy not only during D2 but also during D1. In fact the opening post of the day was Dakky calling for a lynch on Tim. Seems weird that you would assume he (as mafia) would kill the guy he'd been pushing suspicion on. Getting a mislynch on Tim isn't hard in my experience.
You might consider him a safe kill, but there are plenty of safe kills in the game which, no offence, all would be way better than killing Tim, as well as multiple "unsafe" kills on people with way more town credit.

Also, mafia is not a game of chance and you should stop pretending it is.

[william18]

EBWOP: Ok so your saying you were vanilla day 1 and night 1, then night two you either become sk or vig, and you keep doing coin flips until your sk, is that it?

[william18]

I dont see how half the town suspected tim? Only dakky proposd this while only Marashu and Aage said they were open to lynching tim. Thats not half the town. So killing him seems like a good idea since there was no solid arguments towards him that would result in a lynch, and he also doesn't have town rep to garner the doctors trust. Aka a safe kill.

Tim was following no leads, had claimed no powers and was pointed out as scummy not only during D2 but also during D1. In fact the opening post of the day was Dakky calling for a lynch on Tim. Seems weird that you would assume he (as mafia) would kill the guy he'd been pushing suspicion on. Getting a mislynch on Tim isn't hard in my experience.
You might consider him a safe kill, but there are plenty of safe kills in the game which, no offence, all would be way better than killing Tim, as well as multiple "unsafe" kills on people with way more town credit.

Also, mafia is not a game of chance and you should stop pretending it is.

Yeah, I know it's not a game of chance, I'm just analysing the situation using probability, to see how big of a coincidence dakky's claim seems to be. Is 10% not that big of a coincidence to you? If this situation presented itself to us 10 times, 9 of those times dakky is lying and hes the mafia, or he is already a serial killer. Theres a 10% percent chance hes still town, and the mafia missed a kill.

[dakky21]

Since there are 2nd winning conditions, full claiming for example a fire or water or fighting pokemon will just give someone a reason to vote me. I can just add that I couldn't use my shot N1, my power started N2. Also, I have 50% chance with each shot to be turned into a SK. I'm still town, though. If I don't pick a target, someone will be randomly chosen.

That's a pretty bastard role. You're either being very forthright or very suicidal. Also, I don't believe any protective or blocking roles have died yet, so it seems odd to assume you would die N3. And why would the mafia try to kill you if you are forced to kill someone every night? That's just more kill power at good odds for them. I think you're looking at this in a more bleak way than you need to, for the short term anyway... On the long term, I wonder based on your current claim if we can even risk leaving you alive until the endgame.

How are you suggesting we deal with your roleclaim if you can flip on us at a moment's notice?

I guess we don't. I will shoot someone tonight again and as you say I will have better chances to hit town than scum, so I'm invaluable asset to town, especially if I turn into a SK. So lynching me now is a sure town lynch, while leaving me be, can lead to another town death tonight. Or scum, if I get lucky.

Yeah, I know it's not a game of chance, I'm just analysing the situation using probability, to see how big of a coincidence dakky's claim seems to be. Is 10% not that big of a coincidence to you? If this situation presented itself to us 10 times, 9 of those times dakky is lying and hes the mafia, or he is already a serial killer. Theres a 10% percent chance hes still town, and the mafia missed a kill.

Stop doing it. If I am going to analyze the situation using probability, there is 50% chance that you are scum. I don't know how you got to these 10% because first night I had no action so I couldn't flip to SK and the second night dice said I stay as town. So it's still 50-50 just like you could be scum.

[william18]

Yeah, I know it's not a game of chance, I'm just analysing the situation using probability, to see how big of a coincidence dakky's claim seems to be. Is 10% not that big of a coincidence to you? If this situation presented itself to us 10 times, 9 of those times dakky is lying and hes the mafia, or he is already a serial killer. Theres a 10% percent chance hes still town, and the mafia missed a kill.

Stop doing it. If I am going to analyze the situation using probability, there is 50% chance that you are scum. I don't know how you got to these 10% because first night I had no action so I couldn't flip to SK and the second night dice said I stay as town. So it's still 50-50 just like you could be scum.

How am i 50% scum? I'm either scum or im not?

With regards to the 10 percent, I thought I explained it decently. There is a 50% chance your sk, if we believe your roleclaim. There are 2, 1/9 chances of scum missing their kill, so we add since two chances are better than one(1/9 + 1/9) = 2/9. So we multiply 0.5 by 2/9. Just like how flipping heads twice in a row is 1/4(0.5x0.5), the odds of mafia missing kill and you being town is (0.5)(2/9) = 11%.

[dakky21]

How am i 50% scum? I'm either scum or im not?

And what is the chance if you either are or you're not? 50% that you are, 50% that you are not.

With regards to the 10 percent, I thought I explained it decently. There is a 50% chance your sk, if we believe your roleclaim. There are 2, 1/9 chances of scum missing their kill, so we add since two chances are better than one(1/9 + 1/9) = 2/9. So we multiply 0.5 by 2/9. Just like how flipping heads twice in a row is 1/4(0.5x0.5), the odds of mafia missing kill and you being town is (0.5)(2/9) = 11%.

Mate... you're putting it wrong. Each coin flip is a 50-50. They doesn't multiply like that. Chance doesn't decreases or increases with each coin thrown because it's always 50-50. It's is unbelievable that it will flip one million times in a row to a same side, but it can happen, probably never, but it can. And you can't calculate the chance for that, because each flip is 50-50 again. So in one million throws, you will probably have half on one side and half on the other side... so it's still 50-50... so what I am trying to say is... throwing the coin N2 doesn't influence the chance of N3 or N4 or N5. It will always be 50-50, not 25-75 or 10-90.

[dakky21]

Just to elaborate lil more: Chance of flipping heads twice in a row is not 1/4, but still 1/2 because you are throwing the coin twice. Each throw is a separate event and each throw has 50% chance to flip to the head. So if you flip the coin and get heads 9 times in a row, 10th time chance is still 50% to get heads. Separate events. Get what I mean?

What's the chance that you will get one heads in 10 throws? 1/10
What's the chance that 10th flip will be head? 1/2

That's the difference.

[william18]

Just to elaborate lil more: Chance of flipping heads twice in a row is not 1/4, but still 1/2 because you are throwing the coin twice. Each throw is a separate event and each throw has 50% chance to flip to the head. So if you flip the coin and get heads 9 times in a row, 10th time chance is still 50% to get heads. Separate events. Get what I mean?

What's the chance that you will get one heads in 10 throws? 1/10
What's the chance that 10th flip will be head? 1/2

That's the difference.

Flipping heads twice in a row is 1/4 since you need to hit a specific 50/50 twice. You can't flip a tails on the first flip, then heads on the second. You need heads for both.

Also the bolded part is incorrect, but discussing how to calculate the probability will venture even further away from the mafia game at hand.

[william18]

How am i 50% scum? I'm either scum or im not?

And what is the chance if you either are or you're not? 50% that you are, 50% that you are not.

With regards to the 10 percent, I thought I explained it decently. There is a 50% chance your sk, if we believe your roleclaim. There are 2, 1/9 chances of scum missing their kill, so we add since two chances are better than one(1/9 + 1/9) = 2/9. So we multiply 0.5 by 2/9. Just like how flipping heads twice in a row is 1/4(0.5x0.5), the odds of mafia missing kill and you being town is (0.5)(2/9) = 11%.

Mate... you're putting it wrong. Each coin flip is a 50-50. They doesn't multiply like that. Chance doesn't decreases or increases with each coin thrown because it's always 50-50. It's is unbelievable that it will flip one million times in a row to a same side, but it can happen, probably never, but it can. And you can't calculate the chance for that, because each flip is 50-50 again. So in one million throws, you will probably have half on one side and half on the other side... so it's still 50-50... so what I am trying to say is... throwing the coin N2 doesn't influence the chance of N3 or N4 or N5. It will always be 50-50, not 25-75 or 10-90.

Missed this post. Yeah, it's fifty fifty on night 3, if we believe what you say. If we don't your in a state on uncertainty, and therefore I used the previous probability.

[Army of GOD]

I really don't trust dakky's claim and his argument with aage as to how aage deduced there was a vig/sk was odd.


And by I don't trust him, I mean I trust that he has a night killing power and isn't mafia, but it seems to reek of 3p

[Army of GOD]

also, stop arguing probabilities. It doesn't get us anywhere

[Army of GOD]

all that said, I was suspicious of mitch from the beginning and this doesn't do much to help it

We better pull up our socks or we are going to lose town,Yes I am saying I am town and believe that Dakky is also. I claim Tim was town and was right but I was off on Rishaed. I also don't like Aage 's reamark about a vig. Why would he bring that up unless he knows more than he's letting on . Marashu and I have both asked Strikewolf about his move on I.B. and have received no answer. Again was that your 2nd w/c or did you do that to him because you knew he was town? Until you prove otherwise I think you are mafia and say [b]VOTE STRIKEWOLF[/b]

I assumed there was a vig after DY's post, so it's not farfetched at all.







another thing, unrelated to mitch's post, but something is weird about the Pokemon types. BuJ and gregwolf were rock types (that are very weak against water) and were both town, yet IB was water and Tim was a surfing Pikachu (not water, but water is very ineffective against electric). Though to make it more confusing, Tim was killed by a "splash attack", meaning water. Also, I'm water type


so..I guess after all that, I think it makes sense that dakky is a town vig of water type

[madmitch]

@ AOG , I also believe Dakky is lying about him being VIG, I have info that he is not a murderer so maybe he is just trying to get him self hung on day 2 ? I was told about Tim and his surf board , so that is all I can say at the moment.