Sorry for my absence, wanted to let the thread go its own way and see what happens, and then my parents suddenly decided to visit so I didn't have time :/
Findings so far:
Mitch's cop claim is the biggest pile of scummy shit I've ever seen. But I don't know if it makes him town or scum. The checks he made (on Tim and Dakky apparently) also don't tell us anything. I'm really tempted to join the case on him, but I can't read Mitch. It's very possible he is town and might actually have thought that it was somehow a smart move to claim. Which it wasn't, for the record. It doesn't sit right with me at all that his 2 checks are a dead and a claimed role, but for now I'm going to assume that he is town and an idiot. It fits my profile of him the best. Plus, I don't think Dakky is mafia. Mitch wouldn't fake claim cop to defend someone who's not even on his team.
Mitch, don't share results on your next investigation unless you have a CLEAR indication that you found scum. If you're in doubt, share who you investigated and ask that person to claim. Then reveal your findings AFTER that person claimed their role.
Vigs not being able to shoot N1 is not irregular in my experience.
I have a very strong suspicion that AoG is town.
Strike's point on William is fair, and I agree that he is behaving a bit odd. I dislike his vote on Dakky, but I already addressed that in an earlier post. I had expected better posts from Strike, his current ones are a bit lacklustre.
mandalorian2298 wrote:2. The most important thing is not wherether he is Town right now, but whether he is going to be Town when it's endgame. Think of it as poker: if a pair od deuces goes all in preflop against 10 J suited, then the player with 10 J is favorite to win the pot, despite the fact that he STARTS the hand without a pair because he is MORE LIKELY TO HAVE THE WINNING HAND AFTER THE RIVER. This is the same thing, except the odds of dakky FINISHING this game as a SK are at least 75%. He is a ticking time bomb and I would rather not wait for the explosion before defusing him.
mandalorian2298 wrote:Because you are less 'confirmed town' and more 'confessed SK'. As you have already skimmed in the post that you're quoting, it doesn't matter what you are now, it matters what you will be in the endgame and that is >75% SK. You are Schrodinger's Serial Killer Cat, except the chances that you turn bad are way more then 50%.
The logic is completely sound, but he isn't a ticking time bomb and doesn't explode. Besides, you're not treating him like a Schrodinger's SK, you act like you opened the box already. If he is town right now, town can control who he targets. If you believe what he's saying about his role, which I think you do, you'd presumably agree he would not claim this role if he flipped sk already. So for tonight, let him shoot. If he's town he'll try to aim for scum. If he's SK he'll probably want to keep up appearances and aim for scum. Either way it benefits town and we get +1 kill power for one night. If he shoots town again I'm happy to lynch him tomorrow, and if he flipped SK at any point he'll have lost the game. He's a good enough player to make his own reads even if he was off on Rish. Let mafia kill him if they think he's dangerous to them - I don't consider his role a threat to town right now. It's kill power we can enlist.
Since the worst thing that could happen is he shoots another town, I suggest we limit those chances. Help him find a target if you must. All we need to do is narrow down the suspects. I would suggest he doesn't shoot me, Mitch or AoG, anyone else is fair game; if you have additions or think me/Mitch/AoG should be viable targets, give your reasons.
You guys are thinking inside the box too hard. You all say you don't think he's mafia but still want him dead. Mandy, you know better than that.
dakky21 wrote:So, again, you'd rather lynch a confirmed town who may or may not go rouge, than real scum? I just don't see the logic. Mitch is a detective, he can investigate me again tonight to see if my alignment changed, and there you can have my lynch tomorrow. But for today, there are better choices.
Mitch never said he could see alignment, he just spewed some flavour. Plus, baiting a cop off other targets to investigate you
again is an utter waste of resources.
Marashu kinda stands out to me, his reasoning for voting Mitch is off. It's basically "the flavour guy gets flavour role? illuminati!", and I don't really see a reason for Mitch to fake claim flavour cop. He's claimed results on a dead guy and Dakky, and since Marashu doesn't believe Dakky to be scum (you only want to kill him cuz "he might kill a townie!") he has no basis to assume Mitch would protect Dakky with a fake claim. The wagoning vote can be argued for several people. Why do you want to lynch on a known poor player who claimed detective?
FP'd by Strike
I reached a slightly different conclusion on those posts, do you think Dakky is mafia? That would mean the mafia targeted Tim in the night which I strongly do not believe. You think Dakky's claim is an elaborate piece of wool being pulled over our eyes? That his plan was to claim something so utterly ridiculous? He's getting killed this game anyway, regardless of his role, because of his claim. Do you think Dakky would try to shift suspicion to Tim D2 only to kill him during the night as mafia?
It's a bit too tinfoil for me.
(Croatian joke)) and 3) if both of his targets are alive but someone else gets NKed, we lynch him on the next Day - no ifs no buts no coconuts.
