Greek Government Already Showing Cracks

[MeDeFe]

I came across a nifty diagram that shows the percentage of votes that went to which party, and how many seats each party has.

http://ekloges.ypes.gr/v2012a/public/index.html#

And the system is fucked. ND has twice the seats of SYRIZA despite being only 2 percentage points ahead, I also read that even if SYRIZA had won they wouldn't have gotten the seats because they're a coalition of parties and not a single party. Is that correct? And 20% of the voters won't be represented at all because they parties they voted for received less than 3% each, 2 of them missed the mark by only a few hundred votes, those 20% are pretty much the bonus seats ND gets.

Elections are far from perfect here, too, but damn, that system is nearly as bad as the British way of winner taking it all.

[GreecePwns]

The system gives 50 seats to the winner so we don't ever end up in a Belgium-like situation without a government. The rest are proportionally given. Without it, ND would have 58 to SYRIZA's 52. It's not perfect, but it really didn't matter before this election. Ironically, it still isn't enough to help form any government. SYRIZA would have gotten the seats if they won, since they ran the election under one banner as they always do.

And 20%? How much would it be in a winner-take-all system? As many as 49% can be unrepresented and it usually is more than 20%. Throughout the opinion polling period, the number unrepresented was projected to be around 9-10%, so that was unexpected.

The Greens missed Parliament by ~4500 votes.

[GreecePwns]

ND leader Antonis Samaras has given up; he has passed the government formation mandate onto SYRIZA's Alexis Tsipras. Tsipras has outlined his foundation for coalition government.

* The immediate cancellation of all impending measures that will impoverish Greeks further, such as cuts to pensions and salaries.
* The immediate cancellation of all impending measures that undermine fundamental workers' rights, such as the abolition of collective labor agreements.
* The immediate abolition of a law granting MPs immunity from prosecution, reform of the electoral law and a general overhaul of the political system.
* An investigation into Greek banks, and the immediate publication of the audit performed on the Greek banking sector by BlackRock.
* The setting up of an international auditing committee to investigate the causes of Greece's public deficit, with a moratorium on all debt servicing until the findings of the audit are published.

Democratic Left has accepted and said they will join any coalition government SYRIZA proposes (me reading between the lines: possibly the parties will run as one in the new election next month as they had in every one before 2012, giving them the 50-seat bonus easily). KKE has refused to talk to SYRIZA.

[MeDeFe]

The system gives 50 seats to the winner so we don't ever end up in a Belgium-like situation without a government.

You are in a Belgium-like situation despite those 50 bonus seats, the winner of the election (or more accurately: The party that just barely got the most votes) failed to form a government.

[GreecePwns]

Well yeah, when the leading party gets 18% of the vote, you should expect that no matter what kind of system you have. In every other election (where 2 parties had a combined ~80% of the vote) it just gave the winner a clear majority.

Another rule that I actually did not know (since The Third Republic has not seen such fragmentation in Parliament): A minority government can be formed with 120 seats, as long as it passes a vote of confidence. ND said they would support a SYRIZA minority government in this way.

[Baron Von PWN]

So what will your gov look like? SYRZIA-DL- ????

How will Syria get to 120 seats?

[GreecePwns]

They will not. They have given up the formation mandate to PASOK, who will probably do nothing with it.

99.9% chance that there is a second election next month.

[GreecePwns]

9.26pm Here are the results of a Marc poll, conducted two days after the elections and aired by Alpha TV. Syriza are still growing in power it seems, while all other parties are losing voters. the breakdown is as follows:

Syriza - 27.7 (128 seats)
New Democracy - 20.3 (57 seats)
Pasok - 12.6 (36 seats)
Independent Greeks - 10.2 (29 seats)
KKE 7 (20 seats)
Golden Dawn 5.7 (16 seats)
Democratic Left 4.9 (14 seats)

My take: This election has always been about the establishment parties vs. some sort of alternative, and because of the emergence of several breakaway parties, finding an alternative to stand up to the establishment parties was difficult. Because SYRIZA performed so well in the first election, those who were in search of any alternative to the status quo have rallied around them. It also seems that this poll did not include parties like the Greens and others outside of Parliament, so I might be wrong.

[GreecePwns]

In a last ditch effort to avoid another election, President Papoulias has called all party leaders into his office for the weekend to forge a deal for a unity government himself. ND and PASOK are actively courting Democratic Left to join in coalition with them for a government to last 2 years at the most, according to PASOK chief Venizelos.

Meanwhile, the ECB and Merkel cabinet are backing off their stringent "complete austerity or no aid" position. Merkel's Finance Minister, after near-daily comments stating that Greece must accept the terms in the Memorandum to the letter, said he was open to including measures to incentivize growth (because as we know, growing the Greek economy was not priority #1 for the troika). Both major parties have changed their stances as well, saying they would want to renegotiate the Memorandum to include growth measures as well (because as we know, growing the Greek economy was no priority #1 for them either).

[GreecePwns]

Today President Papoulias continued his role as mediator today. He invited the leaders of ND, PASOK, DL and SYRIZA to meet in his office today, but SYRIZA refused to meet. Democratic Left refused to enter government with SYRIZA joining, and ND and PASOK agreed that it is necessary for SYRIZA to join in a government committed to the Euro if is to be a legitimate one. The goal is to create a unity government to last two years, the time where European elections will be held and all the Memorandum measures will have been implemented. Tsipras responded harshly, saying he "would not like to legitimize a Memorandum the Greek people have de-legitimized." Democratic Left leader Fotis Kouvelis said that because of this, he refuses to cooperate SYRIZA should another election occur, and that a government of the left that Tsipras wishes for is an arrogant idea.

My take on this: As you guys can see, Kouvelis has flip-flopped between supporting SYRIZA and the other two. Depending on who he's talking to he says different things. The other two parties are indeed arrogant if they believe that Tsipras will join government without even considering any of his positions. I predict that should another election take place and SYRIZA get the 50 seat bonus he will seriously consider entering a government of the left.

Papoulias then suggested to the three parties that met with him that a government of "personalities" be formed - one of technocrats and politicians with wide appeal, as Kathimerini newspaper described it.

He also met with the heads of Independent Greeks and the KKE, but no progress was made with them as expected.

Also today, Der Speigel editors switched their position from one of keeping Greece in the Eurozone, to a managed exit of Greece from it.

If nothing is resolved tomorrow we are guaranteed a second election. The most recent opinion polls averaged project the following Parliament:

SYRIZA 125
ND 59
PASOK 38
Independent Greeks 29
KKE 19
Golden Dawn 15
Democratic Left 15

SYRIZA is guaranteed at least a minority government if it can get a vote of confidence.

[saxitoxin]

Also today, Der Speigel editors switched their position from one of keeping Greece in the Eurozone, to a managed exit of Greece from it.

That would be a bargain hunters dream if Greece returned to the drachma! You'd be able to get more deals than during Labor Day at Kohl's. I could probably buy the Parthenon for the cost of a couple pairs of Dockers. It would be like Baja without the kidnappers.

[GreecePwns]

Meet Nikolaos Mihaloliakos, the head of Golden Dawn

[Fruitcake]

Also today, Der Speigel editors switched their position from one of keeping Greece in the Eurozone, to a managed exit of Greece from it.

That would be a bargain hunters dream if Greece returned to the drachma! You'd be able to get more deals than during Labor Day at Kohl's. I could probably buy the Parthenon for the cost of a couple pairs of Dockers. It would be like Baja without the kidnappers.

Betting on a Euro slide already has been a bargain hunters dream, Not only that, betting on the break up has been the same. Sold some sizeable market bets today to Paddy Power that I took out last year at at mind numbingly huge odds on the Euro breaking up ...the price then was quite breathtaking, I truly thought all my Christmases had come at once. Phoned my account Manager yesterday evening late and offered them to him at a tenth of the risk price (so ten times the cost price), he was on it first thing this morning and I see they are now offering severe odds on the Euro break up by 2015! Played the hedge by taking a position on Intrade but it's small potatoes now. The best the markets have to offer is even money a country will announce exit from the Euro by December 31 this year. They wont even take bets on Greece leaving the system any more, it has become what the betting population like to call a 'dead cert'.

To listen to the Eurocrats promising that this would never happen is amusing to any one with a smidgen of intelligence. Once again we are seeing the pygmy Political classes being well and truly crushed by the market forces and long may it last. Hopefully the momentum building in Europe will send this present bunch of smug, self opinionated, self satisfied wankers into oblivion once and for all. Greece should take the pain, get the hell out of Dodge and leave the Bondholders to pick up the pieces...the German/French axis can't abide that thought as most of those toxic bonds are held by their institutions now anyway with those nasty verminous Anglo Saxon bunch having dumped their exposures to the Euro zone banking groups some time ago. With a bit of luck Spain will stop creaking soon and start splitting wide open...then watch every one run for the hills.

Last year I started posting rates of sovereign bonds somewhere in this forum, can't be bothered to find them now, but if you go back there and see what was on offer back then compared to now it will shock you how bad things have become. Greece now has to pay an eye watering 24%+ on its ten year bonds...this ain't never going to happen so collapse is well and truly factored in.

[saxitoxin]

Also today, Der Speigel editors switched their position from one of keeping Greece in the Eurozone, to a managed exit of Greece from it.

That would be a bargain hunters dream if Greece returned to the drachma! You'd be able to get more deals than during Labor Day at Kohl's. I could probably buy the Parthenon for the cost of a couple pairs of Dockers. It would be like Baja without the kidnappers.

Betting on a Euro slide already has been a bargain hunters dream, Not only that, betting on the break up has been the same. Sold some sizeable market bets today to Paddy Power that I took out last year at at mind numbingly huge odds on the Euro breaking up ...the price then was quite breathtaking, I truly thought all my Christmases had come at once. Phoned my account Manager yesterday evening late and offered them to him at a tenth of the risk price (so ten times the cost price), he was on it first thing this morning and I see they are now offering severe odds on the Euro break up by 2015! Played the hedge by taking a position on Intrade but it's small potatoes now. The best the markets have to offer is even money a country will announce exit from the Euro by December 31 this year. They wont even take bets on Greece leaving the system any more, it has become what the betting population like to call a 'dead cert'.

To listen to the Eurocrats promising that this would never happen is amusing to any one with a smidgen of intelligence. Once again we are seeing the pygmy Political classes being well and truly crushed by the market forces and long may it last. Hopefully the momentum building in Europe will send this present bunch of smug, self opinionated, self satisfied wankers into oblivion once and for all. Greece should take the pain, get the hell out of Dodge and leave the Bondholders to pick up the pieces...the German/French axis can't abide that thought as most of those toxic bonds are held by their institutions now anyway with those nasty verminous Anglo Saxon bunch having dumped their exposures to the Euro zone banking groups some time ago. With a bit of luck Spain will stop creaking soon and start splitting wide open...then watch every one run for the hills.

Last year I started posting rates of sovereign bonds somewhere in this forum, can't be bothered to find them now, but if you go back there and see what was on offer back then compared to now it will shock you how bad things have become. Greece now has to pay an eye watering 24%+ on its ten year bonds...this ain't never going to happen so collapse is well and truly factored in.

Well, Mr. Doom & Gloom, "a senior executive at a large Greek bank told Reuters: 'There is no bank run, no queues or panic. The situation is better than I expected.'"
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/ ... me=topNews

[saxitoxin]

[GreecePwns]

600m Euros were withdrawn yesterday, compared to 8 billion the few days after Greece received its first bailout

[thegreekdog]

Meet Nikolaos Mihaloliakos, the head of Golden Dawn

I don't understand how a Greek person can not condemn Hitler, who not only invaded Greece but was instrumental in the killing of Greeks in concentration camps.

Also, the interviewer was awesome. I wish we had people like that here.

[Phatscotty]

Time to start printing money! "but but, we have to! It's an emergency!!!!!"

RUN ON THE BANKS IN GREECE!


Greece, we beg you! Embrace similar principles to the Tea Party in America and you can save your country. It's not going to be easy, but you know more than anyone else just how great the times were while the money was being spent and the debt was being racked up. Please do the responsible thing. The world is watching! Don't take any more bailouts! I wish yall didn't take the first one, and definitely not the second one! It's never to late too do the right thing.

The only thing we seem to be able to learn from history, is that we don't learn anything from our history.

This is just more evidence that America should be more like "the rest of the civilized world" especially concerning Universal Health Care.

[GreecePwns]

Actually there is no run on the banks in Greece, but thanks for your input. I'll keep it on file for the next 6 months in case any openings are available.

An opinion poll released this morning shows that a SYRIZA-Democratic Left anti-bailout coalition is almost possible, and that if that does not work, SYRIZA can rule as a minority government. The poll predicts the following parliament:

SYRIZA 124
ND 65
PASOK 47
Independent Greeks 25
KKE 19
Democratic Left 19
Golden Dawn 19

[saxitoxin]

Meet Nikolaos Mihaloliakos, the head of Golden Dawn

If I put my hand over the bottom of the screen so I can't see the sub-titles it sounds and looks like the men behind the counter at any Greek deli in NY yelling at each other as they are wont to do. I've always wondered what they were arguing so emphatically about. Now I know ... HITLER!

[thegreekdog]

Meet Nikolaos Mihaloliakos, the head of Golden Dawn

If I put my hand over the bottom of the screen so I can't see the sub-titles it sounds and looks like the men behind the counter at any Greek deli in NY yelling at each other as they are wont to do. I've always wondered what they were arguing so emphatically about. Now I know ... HITLER!

Yes, that is a fair analogy. I thought about my uncles and grandfather playing backgammon and yelling at each other.

Fun story - My grandfather taught me to play backgammon. We played 10 games. Not only did he not let me win, he criticized my playing the entire time. I was 8.

[GreecePwns]

The final opinion poll released before the June 17 election indicates a comfortable SYRIZA win and a possible two-party coalition between SYRIZA and Democratic Left. The poll predicts the following parliament:

SYRIZA 134
New Democracy 68
PASOK 36
Democratic Left 20
KKE 15
Independent Greeks 15
Golden Dawn 12

The only other party within striking distance of Parliament is the newly-formed liberal alliance called Creation, Again! (some translate as Recreate Greece). The greens and others have fallen to around 1 percent. Even if Creation Again were to make it into parliament, the two parties on the left would still have 151 seats.

[GreecePwns]

This poll follows the release of the two main parties economic plans, which highlight massive differences in their ideology.

New Democracy (source: Kathimerini, English Edition)

The ND leader said he would seek to scale back some taxes and replace others, such as a property tax introduced last fall, with “fairer” levies.

He also repeated a pledge to revoke cuts to low-level pensions and to the salaries of police and air force employees as well as to boost the languishing job market. Another priority was to help indebted households to repay their dues to banks, he said.

On the thorny issue of 11.7 billion euros in public spending cuts that Greece’s creditors have demanded by the end of 2013, Samaras said that these should be made gradually over the next four years.

SYRIZA (Source: Athens News)

Tsipras said he would also introduce measures to relieve the debt burden of overborrowed households and cut valued added tax (VAT), especially on basic food items.

He also said that the bailout memorandum should be abandoned, saying it had failed to take the country out of its economic crisis and would prevent it from having access to financial markets this decade.

"The first action of the government of the left will be the annulment of the memorandum and the implement[ed] laws," he said.

The memorandum, he continued, would be replaced "with a national recovery plan for economic and social growth and productive reconstruction".

In a speech replete with promises and commitments, he also promised to raise the minimum wage back to its original 751 euros and to unemployment benefit to 461.50 euros.

Moreover, unemployment benefits would be paid for two years, instead of the current twelve months.

The Syriza leader also said banks receiving recapitalisation from the Hellenic Financial Stability Fund could face nationalization.

[BigBallinStalin]

Meet Nikolaos Mihaloliakos, the head of Golden Dawn

If I put my hand over the bottom of the screen so I can't see the sub-titles it sounds and looks like the men behind the counter at any Greek deli in NY yelling at each other as they are wont to do. I've always wondered what they were arguing so emphatically about. Now I know ... HITLER!

Yes, that is a fair analogy. I thought about my uncles and grandfather playing backgammon and yelling at each other.

Fun story - My grandfather taught me to play backgammon. We played 10 games. Not only did he not let me win, he criticized my playing the entire time. I was 8.

How much money did he let you lose?

[Fruitcake]

Actually there is no run on the banks in Greece, but thanks for your input. I'll keep it on file for the next 6 months in case any openings are available.

An opinion poll released this morning shows that a SYRIZA-Democratic Left anti-bailout coalition is almost possible, and that if that does not work, SYRIZA can rule as a minority government. The poll predicts the following parliament:

SYRIZA 124
ND 65
PASOK 47
Independent Greeks 25
KKE 19
Democratic Left 19
Golden Dawn 19

This may be so, but the flight of capital from Greece is rising to dizzy heights.

Up to a few days ago it was steadily running at around EUR 100M a day....the best 'guess' in the markets this week is it is running at around 5 times that daily. This 'guess' isn't normally far from the reality of the situation as it is based on fund flows and FX transactions originating from that part of the world amongst other influences.

EUR 500M a day is a lot in any one's economy, especially one the size Greece.

I notice the 'great Euro rally' that was trumpeted by Eurozone based traders on Monday quickly reversed over the last 2 days wiping out any gains made after the Spailout.