Non-VANILLA Game 3 *Game Over* 14 Winners

sheepofdumb · Post by **sheepofdumb** » Sun Apr 15, 2007 2:18 pm

Ya. I'm getting sick of these people who around for signups and then dissapear.

Aimless · Post by **Aimless** » Sun Apr 15, 2007 2:19 pm

Well, crap. There goes the vig, although considering it was Unit_2 it's probably better that he didn't send in a kill.

What about the SK? Do we have one? It's pretty clear both Mandy and Unriggable were mafia kills. So, either our doc is pretty good after all, or it's possible that there is no SK, and we just have one scum family. Which, in a game this size, would probably mean at least 5 scum, counting jnd.

everywhere116 · Post by **everywhere116** » Sun Apr 15, 2007 2:20 pm

[quote="Aimless"]Well, crap. There goes the vig, although considering it was Unit_2 it's probably better that he didn't send in a kill.

[quote]

Syzygy · Post by **Syzygy** » Sun Apr 15, 2007 2:25 pm

everywhere116 wrote:
Aimless wrote:Well, crap. There goes the vig, although considering it was Unit_2 it's probably better that he didn't send in a kill.

I couldn't agree more.

Fircoal · Post by **Fircoal** » Sun Apr 15, 2007 2:26 pm

Syzygy wrote:
everywhere116 wrote:
Aimless wrote:Well, crap. There goes the vig, although considering it was Unit_2 it's probably better that he didn't send in a kill.

I couldn't agree more.

I also agree.

pancakemix · Post by **pancakemix** » Sun Apr 15, 2007 2:26 pm

Fircoal wrote:
Syzygy wrote:
everywhere116 wrote:
Aimless wrote:Well, crap. There goes the vig, although considering it was Unit_2 it's probably better that he didn't send in a kill.

I couldn't agree more.
I also agree.

So do I.

The1exile · Post by **The1exile** » Sun Apr 15, 2007 2:27 pm

Aimless wrote:Well, crap. There goes the vig, although considering it was Unit_2 it's probably better that he didn't send in a kill.

What about the SK? Do we have one? It's pretty clear both Mandy and Unriggable were mafia kills. So, either our doc is pretty good after all, or it's possible that there is no SK, and we just have one scum family. Which, in a game this size, would probably mean at least 5 scum, counting jnd.

You being the statistician - what are the chances that the SK (if there is one) and the mafia targeted the same person?

everywhere116 · Post by **everywhere116** » Sun Apr 15, 2007 2:31 pm

The1exile wrote:
Aimless wrote:Well, crap. There goes the vig, although considering it was Unit_2 it's probably better that he didn't send in a kill.

What about the SK? Do we have one? It's pretty clear both Mandy and Unriggable were mafia kills. So, either our doc is pretty good after all, or it's possible that there is no SK, and we just have one scum family. Which, in a game this size, would probably mean at least 5 scum, counting jnd.
You being the statistician - what are the chances that the SK (if there is one) and the mafia targeted the same person?

This is impossibe to figure unless we know how many mafia there are.

Syzygy · Post by **Syzygy** » Sun Apr 15, 2007 2:32 pm

The1exile wrote:
Aimless wrote:Well, crap. There goes the vig, although considering it was Unit_2 it's probably better that he didn't send in a kill.

What about the SK? Do we have one? It's pretty clear both Mandy and Unriggable were mafia kills. So, either our doc is pretty good after all, or it's possible that there is no SK, and we just have one scum family. Which, in a game this size, would probably mean at least 5 scum, counting jnd.
You being the statistician - what are the chances that the SK (if there is one) and the mafia targeted the same person?

I think I can answer that, each person had 17 targets.

1 in 17 chance right?

5.8% chance.

Syzygy · Post by **Syzygy** » Sun Apr 15, 2007 2:33 pm

I think I can answer that, each person had 17 targets.

1 in 17 chance right?

5.8% chance.

That is for SK & Vig only.

sheepofdumb · Post by **sheepofdumb** » Sun Apr 15, 2007 2:34 pm

pancakemix wrote:
Fircoal wrote:
Syzygy wrote:
everywhere116 wrote:
Aimless wrote:Well, crap. There goes the vig, although considering it was Unit_2 it's probably better that he didn't send in a kill.

I couldn't agree more.
I also agree.
So do I.

Same here.

everywhere116 · Post by **everywhere116** » Sun Apr 15, 2007 2:34 pm

Syzygy wrote:
The1exile wrote:
Aimless wrote:Well, crap. There goes the vig, although considering it was Unit_2 it's probably better that he didn't send in a kill.

What about the SK? Do we have one? It's pretty clear both Mandy and Unriggable were mafia kills. So, either our doc is pretty good after all, or it's possible that there is no SK, and we just have one scum family. Which, in a game this size, would probably mean at least 5 scum, counting jnd.
You being the statistician - what are the chances that the SK (if there is one) and the mafia targeted the same person?
I think I can answer that, each person had 17 targets.

1 in 17 chance right?

5.8% chance.

You also have to facor that they are not just choosing targets randomly.

Syzygy · Post by **Syzygy** » Sun Apr 15, 2007 2:36 pm

everywhere116 wrote:
Syzygy wrote:
The1exile wrote:
Aimless wrote:Well, crap. There goes the vig, although considering it was Unit_2 it's probably better that he didn't send in a kill.

What about the SK? Do we have one? It's pretty clear both Mandy and Unriggable were mafia kills. So, either our doc is pretty good after all, or it's possible that there is no SK, and we just have one scum family. Which, in a game this size, would probably mean at least 5 scum, counting jnd.
You being the statistician - what are the chances that the SK (if there is one) and the mafia targeted the same person?
I think I can answer that, each person had 17 targets.

1 in 17 chance right?

5.8% chance.
You also have to facor that they are not just choosing targets randomly.

Hmm... you're right. Without knowing how many mafia there are I can't do that.

Anyway, the chances that all 3 chose the exact same target are VERY slim.

everywhere116 · Post by **everywhere116** » Sun Apr 15, 2007 2:37 pm

Syzygy wrote:
everywhere116 wrote:
Syzygy wrote:
The1exile wrote:
Aimless wrote:Well, crap. There goes the vig, although considering it was Unit_2 it's probably better that he didn't send in a kill.

What about the SK? Do we have one? It's pretty clear both Mandy and Unriggable were mafia kills. So, either our doc is pretty good after all, or it's possible that there is no SK, and we just have one scum family. Which, in a game this size, would probably mean at least 5 scum, counting jnd.
You being the statistician - what are the chances that the SK (if there is one) and the mafia targeted the same person?
I think I can answer that, each person had 17 targets.

1 in 17 chance right?

5.8% chance.
You also have to facor that they are not just choosing targets randomly.
Hmm... you're right. Without knowing how many mafia there are I can't do that.

Anyway, the chances that all 3 chose the exact same target are VERY slim.

Which is why I do not think there is one.

pancakemix · Post by **pancakemix** » Sun Apr 15, 2007 2:37 pm

No, only two. Fircoal said Unit_2 didn't send in his actions ever.

Aimless · Post by **Aimless** » Sun Apr 15, 2007 2:40 pm

The1exile wrote:You being the statistician - what are the chances that the SK (if there is one) and the mafia targeted the same person?

This is hard to answer, but generally "low." First, any statistical analysis would be based around the idea that the chance of any given player being targeted is identical. Secondly, I'd need to know how many mafia there are.

So, the following is based on the assumption that mafia and SK targets are random, and that there were 5 mafia to start the game. The chance of the mafia and the SK targeting the same person on night 1 (23 players remaining) is 17/18*1/22 = 4.29% (17/18 is the chance the mafia don't target the SK, and 1/22 is the chance the SK targets the mobs target). So, pretty low.

Likewise, on night 2, with 21 players and 4 mafia remaining, the odds are 16/17*1/20 = 4.7%. The odds of both events occurring is 0.0429*0.047 = 0.2%. Not low enough to rule out the possibility of it happening, but low enough to discount it in our considerations of the game.

However, that's assuming that night kill choices by the mafia and SK are random. Obviously, the aren't (completely) random, which would serve to increase the odds substantially. For instance, if we consider that there are only approximately 10 players with a likelihood of getting night-killed on any given night, then the probability of one player getting targeted by both groups jumps to either 9/10*1/10 = 9% (if the SK is a member of the group of possible targets), or 10% (if the SK is not). The chance of it happening two nights in a row is still less than 1% though.

sheepofdumb · Post by **sheepofdumb** » Sun Apr 15, 2007 2:42 pm

All figures. Numbers can't always predict what's going in the human mind.

pancakemix · Post by **pancakemix** » Sun Apr 15, 2007 2:44 pm

sheepofdumb wrote:All figures. Numbers can't always predict what's going in the human mind.

But sometimes they can.

Aimless · Post by **Aimless** » Sun Apr 15, 2007 2:44 pm

No, but numbers gives us a pretty good idea of the expectation value of the contents of all human minds. The answer is sex and food.

sheepofdumb · Post by **sheepofdumb** » Sun Apr 15, 2007 2:45 pm

I'm just trying to point out that the human mind is unpredictable.

The1exile · Post by **The1exile** » Sun Apr 15, 2007 2:46 pm

sheepofdumb wrote:All figures. Numbers can't always predict what's going in the human mind.

True, but it gives us a good startingpoint.

Also consider that while there's a 1% chance the mafia and Sk targeted the same person, there's oresumably also the chances that the doc protected the SK's kill at least one niht, or maybe the Sk was roleblocked. I'm assuming the Sk must be at least partly active since Fircoal didn't kill him.

Aimless · Post by **Aimless** » Sun Apr 15, 2007 2:47 pm

And I'm trying to point out that the human mind is more predictable that you think.

For instance, when I see your nom de plume, I get hungry. When I see Fircoal's avatar, I get hot and bothered. Stimulus and response, entirely predictable behaviors.

Aimless · Post by **Aimless** » Sun Apr 15, 2007 2:49 pm

The1exile wrote:True, but it gives us a good startingpoint.

Also consider that while there's a 1% chance the mafia and Sk targeted the same person, there's oresumably also the chances that the doc protected the SK's kill at least one niht, or maybe the Sk was roleblocked. I'm assuming the Sk must be at least partly active since Fircoal didn't kill him.

One more possibility - Fircoal killed Unit_2 for missing two night, but did not kill him for just missing one. Thus, it's possible that our SK missed one night, and got blocked, protected, or doubled the mafia on the other night.

Fircoal · Post by **Fircoal** » Sun Apr 15, 2007 2:53 pm

Aimless wrote:. When I see Fircoal's avatar, I get hot and bothered.

What type of hot?

Aimless · Post by **Aimless** » Sun Apr 15, 2007 2:53 pm

The sweaty kind.