Best At Beta: All Your Base [Winner: M.K.C88-90]

[agentcom]

I definitely still have not received all my invites. I've played 7 of my 15 games for this round. And I think I would have noticed dropping 8 invites.

[Serreski]

White Buffalo didn't accept his invites. i have resent them and added the scoreboard to the 2nd post.

You need to get a couple of reserves

[crazymilkshake5]

in as replacement.

[agentcom]

I just got a bunch of invites for games that don't have another player.

[greenoaks]

I just got a bunch of invites for games that don't have another player.

that's called red wine.

invites for the rest of the round 1 games have now been sent.

[agentcom]

Thanks

You still need another player, right? To fill up the tourney? I saw that you had a couple drops and thought I remember reading something about a 16-player minimum for tournaments.

[greenoaks]

Thanks

You still need another player, right? To fill up the tourney? I saw that you had a couple drops and thought I remember reading something about a 16-player minimum for tournaments.

it needs to start with 16, which this did.

[crazymilkshake5]

I'm not in the scoreboard? or just havnt put me up there yet?

[greenoaks]

everyone is now on the scoreboard and it has been updated.

[crazymilkshake5]

Missing a player in Game 10950898

[Willo.Kings]

Missing a player in Game 10950898

I am also missing an opponent in Game 10950899

[agentcom]

I am too, so there's probably another player who dropped out.

In other news, I am getting some of the worst dice I have ever seen this round. I'm 0 for 5 so far this round, as I could barely get off my base in some of the games, so they turned very quickly into blow-outs. I think this round is going to be enough to ensure that I'm not going to win this tourney.

[woopintroysbutt]

I think we had the same issue is Round 1. I too have a left over game.

When will the totals for Round 2 be updated and when do you think Round 3 will come out.

[greenoaks]

with only 2 games left from round 2 i have started round 3.
+
Serreski has dropped out

[agentcom]

I doubt I'm in contention anymore, but I don't think the games of Serreski and ScootChina should count toward leaderboard rankings. This is causing players to play an uneven amount of games. When the criteria for winning the tournament is supposed to be best score among the tournament players, I don't think you should count games with players that drop out of the tournament.

[DiM]

i think this is probably my unluckiest tourney ever.
games where after 2 turns my opponents have all level 1 tech pairs and i have none have become a common thing.
and if the start is good then surely something wrong must happen along the way. like failing a 13v3 when attacking my opponent's base.

but that's nothing compared to what just happened.
i'm in a game where by round 5 i have a comfortable lead. double the amount of troops than my opponent. i also deploy 4 times more troops than him and it's pretty much my game.
but check this out. i begin round 5 with 4 cards. i play my turn as usual, getting more bonuses, preparing for the win in the next few rounds and guess what card i get at the end on my turn?
my base, and on top of that,i have to use it cause it's the only possible way of making a set )
so at the start of round 6 i'll be nuking my base in a game where i was controlling the situation with ease )

[greenoaks]

i think this is probably my unluckiest tourney ever.
games where after 2 turns my opponents have all level 1 tech pairs and i have none have become a common thing.
and if the start is good then surely something wrong must happen along the way. like failing a 13v3 when attacking my opponent's base.

but that's nothing compared to what just happened.
i'm in a game where by round 5 i have a comfortable lead. double the amount of troops than my opponent. i also deploy 4 times more troops than him and it's pretty much my game.
but check this out. i begin round 5 with 4 cards. i play my turn as usual, getting more bonuses, preparing for the win in the next few rounds and guess what card i get at the end on my turn?
my base, and on top of that,i have to use it cause it's the only possible way of making a set )
so at the start of round 6 i'll be nuking my base in a game where i was controlling the situation with ease )

[DiM]

forgot the game number: Game 11005192

[agentcom]

i think this is probably my unluckiest tourney ever.
games where after 2 turns my opponents have all level 1 tech pairs and i have none have become a common thing.
and if the start is good then surely something wrong must happen along the way. like failing a 13v3 when attacking my opponent's base.

but that's nothing compared to what just happened.
i'm in a game where by round 5 i have a comfortable lead. double the amount of troops than my opponent. i also deploy 4 times more troops than him and it's pretty much my game.
but check this out. i begin round 5 with 4 cards. i play my turn as usual, getting more bonuses, preparing for the win in the next few rounds and guess what card i get at the end on my turn?
my base, and on top of that,i have to use it cause it's the only possible way of making a set )
so at the start of round 6 i'll be nuking my base in a game where i was controlling the situation with ease )

That is amazingly bad luck. Are the odds really .003% like you said in the game?

I had both incredibly bad luck and incredibly good luck in a way last round. The bad luck was that I probably had some of the worst dice overall in any round of any tournament that I've ever been in. The good luck was that the bad dice were absolutely jam packed into my five losses allowing me to pull out an astonishing (considering the dice) 8 wins in that round.

To give you an idea: My 5 losses last round happened in an average of 4.2 rounds. That's 4 4-round losses and 1 5-round loss. That means that my opponent got such good dice he only needed 1 or maybe 0 card sets to beat me.

To compare, my wins took an average of 7.9 rounds, including one of the craziest games (in terms of back-and-forth swings) that I've played on this map. Probably in the top 5 in that category in all the games that I've ever played. I'm sure the game log doesn't do it justice, but you can get the idea from chat that it was a wild one.

That was Game 10950700 against J_Indr

[DiM]

if my math is right then indeed the chance of getting a blue card with my base's name on it is 0.0038759686%

also one thing i noticed and i'm actually surprised is how many people completely disregard mathematical odds and simply roll the dice and win.

for example i recently lost a game where my opponent had a 12 stack and on a nuke/dna and proceeded to climb the tech tree and then attack my base.
we were both of the same alignment so had he failed i would have had a clear path to take him out.
so with a 13 stack he had to kill 4,2,8 neutrals and then 3 on my base. the odds of making it were 16.6%. i'd never dare take this chance knowing that if i fail i leave the trail wide open for my opponent to kill me. yet he did and not only did he succeed by he made it with 7 troops left. that's a 10.5% chance of happening.

on multiple occasions i've had 25+ troops on a nuke/dna and failed to climb the tech tree.

i don't know, maybe i should not think about odds and chances and simply roll the dice and pray.


PS: one more thing. greenoaks said some time ago that i do well against him. since he uttered those words i've had nothing but rotten dice against him. on rorke's drift i had 10v1 and i lost 8 troops trying to take him out of an area and secure a bonus, the next turn he got perfect dice and secured that area of the map and got the win.
now on aybabtu after the first 2 rounds i lost 9 troops and killed 1. it's pointless to say where the game is heading now.

[DiM]

for example i recently lost a game where my opponent had a 12 stack and on a nuke/dna and proceeded to climb the tech tree and then attack my base.
we were both of the same alignment so had he failed i would have had a clear path to take him out.
so with a 13 stack he had to kill 4,2,8 neutrals and then 3 on my base. the odds of making it were 16.6%. i'd never dare take this chance knowing that if i fail i leave the trail wide open for my opponent to kill me. yet he did and not only did he succeed by he made it with 7 troops left. that's a 10.5% chance of happening.

on multiple occasions i've had 25+ troops on a nuke/dna and failed to climb the tech tree.

i don't know, maybe i should not think about odds and chances and simply roll the dice and pray.

rolling and praying doesn't work
21 stack on a nuke. lost 10 troops and killed just 2 so i could not even get the first terit that has 4 neutrals.
21 vs 4,2,8 and 1 on the enemy base has a 65.9% chance of success. losing 10 troops in a row has a less than 1% chance of happening.

[agentcom]

Yeah, I've seen people make moves like that before. All I can do is say "thank you" if they don't succeed (as should happen) and "F you" if they do succeed.

I doubt I'm in contention anymore, but I don't think the games of Serreski and ScootChina should count toward leaderboard rankings. This is causing players to play an uneven amount of games. When the criteria for winning the tournament is supposed to be best score among the tournament players, I don't think you should count games with players that drop out of the tournament.

Still awaiting a response on this ...

[greenoaks]

if games against them mattered they will be replaced.

the scoreboard has been updated. a winner will be declarded once the final 2 games are completed.

[greenoaks]

and the winner is

M.K.C88-90