Greece to Collapse Monday Afternoon

[jonesthecurl]

A few Greek communist or anarchist protesters thought they would stick it to the man by setting a bank on fire.

They killed 3 people. Stuff like this makes me sick.

And as for tax evasion: Some news group did an aerial surveying of a rich neighborhood to check which houses had pools.

The neighborhood had 400 people claim pools. The surveying found over 16 000 pools. You are suppose to claim a pool if you have one because there's a tax on pools in Greece.

To qualify for retirement - the age was under 60 for men and it was lower for women. Public sector employees received bonuses - no, not performance bonuses for doing a good job, just a bonus for being an employee.

Just absolutely ridiculous. I am for social programs but that is excess to the max.

Great points, Delta - and welcome to the board!

I'm kind of the board "dad" around here, and the unofficial welcome wagon driver! I just want to let you know we are working to build an inclusive, diverse community here on ConquerClub and are thrilled you're a part of it!!!!!!!!!!!

Let's welcome, Delta, gang!
- Saxi!
Unofficial CC Happiness Ombudsman

Actually he's more like that embarrasing uncle that you always "forget" to invite.

[Phatscotty]

Communists take the Acropolis

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s87jTa8A-Gw

Greece, ancient symbol of the West

[Fruitcake]

The Uk has one huge advantage over any of the Eurozone countries presently suffering under the burden of debt. This advantage is simply because the UK Govt can indulge in fiscal easing (printing moolah) and let the £ drift down in value. The main ramifications of this are:

For:
(a) Reduction in 'real' value of debt.
(b) Inflationary spiral accelerates, causing more of (a)

Against:
(a) See (b) above. This would also cause living standards to reduce in the UK.
(b) UK loses some of its cachet as a safe haven currency.

Greece should exit the Euro double quick. Get the printing presses going and leave the bond holders with rapidly reducing values. Now let's see who Greece is into for most of the debt....oh...lookie lookie...its Germany and France who stand at the forefront. One doesn't suppose for one moment that this would be why the same two countries are the loudest in gathering cross Euro support in a bail out.

historically Italy, greece and a couple of other med countries have lived with declining currencies as a fact of life. It encourages exports, reduces imports and tends to be a natural panacea to Govt debt issues.

Monday will be a searing session in the markets. Euro politicians are now invoking article 122.2 of the Lisbon Treaty saying the council can help a member state of the 27-nation block in serious difficulties caused by circumstances beyond its control. This article was put there as a tool to deal with national (and natural crises) but as usual Barroso and his cronies are bending the rules to suit themselves.

Barroso today said ""We will defend the Euro whatever it takes". This means the Euro countries will be able to help themselves to UK sovereign debt to bolster Greece, Italy and whoever else they decide upon. However, I would still forecast that the markets will prove, as always, to be stronger than any Govt or group of same. The Euro zone politicians have chased, and will always chase, the utopian dream that they are able to control the natural force of greed in the traders and market makers. they forget that a single CDS market (in terms of currency) can exceed 1 trillion dollars and a few billion thrown at this problem, which ultimately is far bigger, wont make it go away, all it will do is cause the currency traders to short even more and rub their hands with glee at the cash they are going to make driving the Euro down.

On Friday the 10 year bond spread in basis points to Bunds closed at: Portugal 428, Italy 159, Greece 1038, Spain 181. My money is on those spreads increasing as the days go by, (yes, I shorted 3 of the above some months back and have already exited to cover my spread and am still left with bonds in hand...which of course I have hedged using CDS notes in.....dollars!)

[army of nobunaga]

Breaking Update: Germany Just Agreed to Lend to Greece at 5% instead of 22%

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-0 ... ate1-.html

Good News: Greece Will Survive

Bad News: Germany is Now in a Suicide Pact with Greece; if this doesn't work out both Greece and Germany will collapse into anarchy

The meetings are over,
The treaties suspended,
The armies start marching,
The EU is ended.

I read this about 4 times. I can't figure out if you were serious or not. In the history of the known world name me the country that has disintegrated into "anarchy" over their market?
Countries collapse when their people are starving or there is too much war.

Greece will cap their market likely and wait till all this paranoid fear stops a little. It will continue on as a poor broke country but a little poorer and broke.

Germany isnt "collapsing into anarchy" likely, ever.

People love drama. And when there isnt enough people make up more drama. We are a curious animal. Greece, EU, Germany... they are fine. They will continue.

[saxitoxin]

Breaking Update: Germany Just Agreed to Lend to Greece at 5% instead of 22%

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-0 ... ate1-.html

Good News: Greece Will Survive

Bad News: Germany is Now in a Suicide Pact with Greece; if this doesn't work out both Greece and Germany will collapse into anarchy

The meetings are over,
The treaties suspended,
The armies start marching,
The EU is ended.

I read this about 4 times. I can't figure out if you were serious or not. In the history of the known world name me the country that has disintegrated into "anarchy" over their market?

Zimbabwe

[army of nobunaga]

when I post stuff, I dont google up info. Its kind of cheating to me. You will have to enlighten me on zimbabwes sudden or historical anarchy -I believe they fall under the people starving catagory I mentioned anyway:-)

[saxitoxin]

when I post stuff, I dont google up info. Its kind of cheating to me. You will have to enlighten me on zimbabwes sudden or historical anarchy -I believe they fall under the people starving catagory I mentioned anyway:-)

Right.

So here's the thing. People starving didn't cause Zimbabwe's economy to collapse. The collapse of Zimbabwe's economy caused people to starve.

[saxitoxin]

Here's what life was like in Argentina from 2001 to 2006:

http://www.rapidtrends.com/surving-arge ... -part-1-3/

Mass gang rapes, looting, street violence, riots, unstable governments. All caused by a type of market instability that was a fraction of what is coming at Greece. And, I venture to note, the Argentine is much more stoic and capable of handling these events than the delicate and fragile Greeks.

I'm reminded of the U.S. Federal Marshal Wyatt Earp's warning to the Cowboys ... "You tell 'em the law is coming, ya' hear? You tell I'm coming and hell's coming with me! HELL'S COMING WITH ME!"

The fundamental laws of economics is coming at Europe. And hell's coming with it.

[DeltaFormation]

Zimbabwe has nothing to do with anarchy. They have a tyrant named Mugabe who basically does whatever he wants in his country. Kind of like that guy in North Korea.

Without google:

To put this into context you have to remember it's similar to South Africa with white farmers owning a lot of land and black farmers owning nothing. So there is real discrimination that went on into the late 20th century.

Mugabe gets elected democratically and Zimbabwe is fine for a while... then he gets more and more radical, he starts to ignore British law - the basis of capitalist society - so investors start getting out of that country. He basically becomes a dictator of his country for life.

So now there is only money leaving that country - Mugabe and his men start printing money to pay salaries of government employees. A billion Zimbabwe dollars is a bill that is actually in existence and it's practically worthless.

--- Maybe double check that summary because I didn't use google or anything but memory.

[army of nobunaga]

well I broke my rule and looked this up for you... looks like zimbabwes recent economic trouble is well recent.

looks like they have had famine since early 2000's

I dont trust wiki much, and I got this from there so there is a grain of salt.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Famine#Famine_in_Africa


"imbabwe in the early-2000s, famine can be caused as an unintentional result of government policy. Malawi ended its famine by subsidizing its farmers against the strictures of the World Bank.[6] During the 1973 Wollo Famine in Ethiopia, food was being shipped out of Wollo to the capital city of Addis Ababa where it could command higher prices. In contrast, at the same time that the citizens of the dictatorships of Ethiopia and Sudan had massive famines in the late-1970s and early-1980s, the democracies of Botswana and Zimbabwe avoided them, despite having worse drops in national food production. This was possible through the creating short-term employment for the worst-affected groups, thus ensuring a minimal amount of income to buy food, for the duration of the localized food disruption and was taken under criticism from opposition political parties and intense media coverage. In other cases, such as Somalia, famine is a consequence of a failed state. Despotism is a known cause of famine; in fact, there has never been a famine in an established liberal democracy.[9]"


pretty good reading.. I learned something. Would you call Greece an "established liberal democracy"? So basically tomorrow when they, germany, and the EU collapse into anarchy, they at least wont have to worry about starving if wiki and precedence is right =D

[Phatscotty]

The Uk has one huge advantage over any of the Eurozone countries presently suffering under the burden of debt. This advantage is simply because the UK Govt can indulge in fiscal easing (printing moolah) and let the £ drift down in value. The main ramifications of this are:

For:
(a) Reduction in 'real' value of debt.
(b) Inflationary spiral accelerates, causing more of (a)

Against:
(a) See (b) above. This would also cause living standards to reduce in the UK.
(b) UK loses some of its cachet as a safe haven currency.

Greece should exit the Euro double quick. Get the printing presses going and leave the bond holders with rapidly reducing values. Now let's see who Greece is into for most of the debt....oh...lookie lookie...its Germany and France who stand at the forefront. One doesn't suppose for one moment that this would be why the same two countries are the loudest in gathering cross Euro support in a bail out.

historically Italy, greece and a couple of other med countries have lived with declining currencies as a fact of life. It encourages exports, reduces imports and tends to be a natural panacea to Govt debt issues.

Monday will be a searing session in the markets. Euro politicians are now invoking article 122.2 of the Lisbon Treaty saying the council can help a member state of the 27-nation block in serious difficulties caused by circumstances beyond its control. This article was put there as a tool to deal with national (and natural crises) but as usual Barroso and his cronies are bending the rules to suit themselves.

Barroso today said ""We will defend the Euro whatever it takes". This means the Euro countries will be able to help themselves to UK sovereign debt to bolster Greece, Italy and whoever else they decide upon. However, I would still forecast that the markets will prove, as always, to be stronger than any Govt or group of same. The Euro zone politicians have chased, and will always chase, the utopian dream that they are able to control the natural force of greed in the traders and market makers. they forget that a single CDS market (in terms of currency) can exceed 1 trillion dollars and a few billion thrown at this problem, which ultimately is far bigger, wont make it go away, all it will do is cause the currency traders to short even more and rub their hands with glee at the cash they are going to make driving the Euro down.

On Friday the 10 year bond spread in basis points to Bunds closed at: Portugal 428, Italy 159, Greece 1038, Spain 181. My money is on those spreads increasing as the days go by, (yes, I shorted 3 of the above some months back and have already exited to cover my spread and am still left with bonds in hand...which of course I have hedged using CDS notes in.....dollars!)

Everyone shut the hell up when this man is talking! clear a path for the truth. CLEAR A PATH!

[Phatscotty]

Breaking Update: Germany Just Agreed to Lend to Greece at 5% instead of 22%

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-0 ... ate1-.html

Good News: Greece Will Survive

Bad News: Germany is Now in a Suicide Pact with Greece; if this doesn't work out both Greece and Germany will collapse into anarchy

The meetings are over,
The treaties suspended,
The armies start marching,
The EU is ended.

I read this about 4 times. I can't figure out if you were serious or not. In the history of the known world name me the country that has disintegrated into "anarchy" over their market?

Zimbabwe

you will notice these pictures were my avatars about a year ago here. you will notice this is zimbabwe

[Phatscotty]

Zimbabwe has nothing to do with anarchy. They have a tyrant named Mugabe who basically does whatever he wants in his country. Kind of like that guy in North Korea.

Without google:

To put this into context you have to remember it's similar to South Africa with white farmers owning a lot of land and black farmers owning nothing. So there is real discrimination that went on into the late 20th century.

Mugabe gets elected democratically and Zimbabwe is fine for a while... then he gets more and more radical, he starts to ignore British law - the basis of capitalist society - so investors start getting out of that country. He basically becomes a dictator of his country for life.

So now there is only money leaving that country - Mugabe and his men start printing money to pay salaries of government employees. A billion Zimbabwe dollars is a bill that is actually in existence and it's practically worthless.

--- Maybe double check that summary because I didn't use google or anything but memory.

the example (credit given) you used as "south africa" is exactly what happened in zimbabwe (white farmers...)

[saxitoxin]

Zimbabwe has nothing to do with anarchy. They have a tyrant named Mugabe who basically does whatever he wants in his country. Kind of like that guy in North Korea.

First, Mugabe is hardly the thug western whites make him out to be. This is the inherent smugness of the racist colony-makers in attempting to assert that white know-how is superior.

Second, Mugabe's thuggishness - or lack of thuggishness - is ultimately irrelevent. The question was - "has a financial calamity ever led to anarchy?" The use of the word "anarchy" in this sense being hyperbolic reference to "state of instability and suffering."

1. Zimbabwe suffered a financial calamity

2. Zimbabwe exists in a state of instability and suffering

[Phatscotty]

We can get into the details. I could be interested further in them, but the example of fiat is a powerful one.

Bottom line....This is what happens when you print money out of thin air.

[saxitoxin]

well I broke my rule and looked this up for you... looks like zimbabwes recent economic trouble is well recent.

looks like they have had famine since early 2000's

I dont trust wiki much, and I got this from there so there is a grain of salt.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Famine#Famine_in_Africa


"imbabwe in the early-2000s, famine can be caused as an unintentional result of government policy. Malawi ended its famine by subsidizing its farmers against the strictures of the World Bank.[6] During the 1973 Wollo Famine in Ethiopia, food was being shipped out of Wollo to the capital city of Addis Ababa where it could command higher prices. In contrast, at the same time that the citizens of the dictatorships of Ethiopia and Sudan had massive famines in the late-1970s and early-1980s, the democracies of Botswana and Zimbabwe avoided them, despite having worse drops in national food production. This was possible through the creating short-term employment for the worst-affected groups, thus ensuring a minimal amount of income to buy food, for the duration of the localized food disruption and was taken under criticism from opposition political parties and intense media coverage. In other cases, such as Somalia, famine is a consequence of a failed state. Despotism is a known cause of famine; in fact, there has never been a famine in an established liberal democracy.[9]"

\

I think this was intended to rebut what I said but I'm not sure, exactly, how it was supposed to accomplish that?

Greece is following in footsteps well worn ... the Danish Bankruptcy of 1813, the German Financial Crisis of 1923, the Argentine Market Collapse of 2001 ... the list goes on and always ends in bloodshed and tribulation.

When the bread lines get long enough, the power outages become frequent enough and the crime rate spirals high enough, Europeans will go back to doing what they do best: bombing the shit out of each other.

[jimboston]

Mostly the problem is massive state employment, as far as I understand it. Huge sections are employed by the government. When the government hit financial difficulties in the current crisis, there was no way to maintain the status quo.

That and Greece uses the Euro. Allowing it to fail would impact other Euro states and destabilise and delegitimise that part of the European economy.

The problem is that Greece needs to reform it's economy, but is too big to fail.

Sounds like Socialism to me... another failed socialist state.

Socialism = Liberalism = Democrats

[DeltaFormation]

750 Billion Euro rescue package announced late last night/early Monday morning depending on where you live.

500 Billion from the Eurozone and 250 Billion from the IMF.

[Phatscotty]

I simultaneously am pretty sure and hope your information is way off.

Last I heard 40b-IMF 100b-Europe

[DeltaFormation]

I simultaneously am pretty sure and hope your information is way off.

Last I heard 40b-IMF 100b-Europe

They probably won't use all of it but it's here:

"Crisis-hit Europe on Monday announced a monster rescue package running to 750 billion euros between euro countries and the IMF, sending the euro surging in Asian trade.
Leaders hope an unprecedented international intervention, worth just shy of one trillion dollars, will represent a game-changing European financial war chest, which will also be backed by European Central Bank action to nudge debt and currency markets.
European Union finance ministers agreed, after marathon talks lasting more than 11 hours, that 440 billion euros would come from the troubled eurozone plus another 60 billion euros from the European Commission coffers.
That would be backed by "at least half as much" again from the International Monetary Fund, Spanish finance minister Elena Salgado said, or another 250 billion euros."

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/ar ... YeVXydBGpA

[Phatscotty]

I simultaneously am pretty sure and hope your information is way off.

Last I heard 40b-IMF 100b-Europe

They probably won't use all of it but it's here:

"Crisis-hit Europe on Monday announced a monster rescue package running to 750 billion euros between euro countries and the IMF, sending the euro surging in Asian trade.
Leaders hope an unprecedented international intervention, worth just shy of one trillion dollars, will represent a game-changing European financial war chest, which will also be backed by European Central Bank action to nudge debt and currency markets.
European Union finance ministers agreed, after marathon talks lasting more than 11 hours, that 440 billion euros would come from the troubled eurozone plus another 60 billion euros from the European Commission coffers.
That would be backed by "at least half as much" again from the International Monetary Fund, Spanish finance minister Elena Salgado said, or another 250 billion euros."

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/ar ... YeVXydBGpA

I will be shocked upon confirmation from my sources. I have already checked. please stay in touch on this

[Fruitcake]

I am gven to understand that the 800 Billion is an EU package, with 720 coming from the Euro zone and 80 from EU, non Euro members. Of course, as always, they are light on details. However, added to this is a commitment by the ECB to purchase Eurozone debt in a sterilized manner plus an agreement by the major central banks to reinstitute currency swaps to help banks with liquidity difficulties in particular currencies mainly the dollar.

The purchase of PIGS bonds by the EU will be targeted at particular parts of the yield curve eg 2 year Greeks where rates hit 40% last week and there was no market in these bonds. There are a couple of other points, but I still cannot see how this will resolve the problems in the medium term. The Greeks will settle for the summer as the tourist season gets under way, but come September/Autumn, the streets will hear the rattle of riots once more. The main contributor to all this, the German people, gave Merkel a spectacular bloody nose yesterday in the Ruhr Westphalia local elections and Merkel lost control of the German upper house. The comments in the daily newspapers are starting to sound shrill as the papers push public opinion in the direction of hard working Germans bailing out idle, early retiring Greeks. The Bund / Greek 10 year bond spread has shrunk this morning, but I am holding steady, the markets take a longer term view than the Politicians and I still forecast that spread increasing again within a few months.

[saxitoxin]

I am gven to understand that the 800 Billion is an EU package, with 720 coming from the Euro zone and 80 from EU, non Euro members. Of course, as always, they are light on details. However, added to this is a commitment by the ECB to purchase Eurozone debt in a sterilized manner plus an agreement by the major central banks to reinstitute currency swaps to help banks with liquidity difficulties in particular currencies mainly the dollar.

The purchase of PIGS bonds by the EU will be targeted at particular parts of the yield curve eg 2 year Greeks where rates hit 40% last week and there was no market in these bonds. There are a couple of other points, but I still cannot see how this will resolve the problems in the medium term. The Greeks will settle for the summer as the tourist season gets under way, but come September/Autumn, the streets will hear the rattle of riots once more. The main contributor to all this, the German people, gave Merkel a spectacular bloody nose yesterday in the Ruhr Westphalia local elections and Merkel lost control of the German upper house. The comments in the daily newspapers are starting to sound shrill as the papers push public opinion in the direction of hard working Germans bailing out idle, early retiring Greeks. The Bund / Greek 10 year bond spread has shrunk this morning, but I am holding steady, the markets take a longer term view than the Politicians and I still forecast that spread increasing again within a few months.

Saxi nominates Fruitcake for POTTY (Poster Of The True Year) Mouth!

A quarter of the Lander are sitting on the edge of bankruptcy and Fat Angela is sending money to Athens so well-tanned Greek civil servants can keep getting a mint on their pillows and their footsy-wootsies rubbed before bed each night. The sinking of the SS EU is going to be more spectacular than the Titanic.

[Trephining]

Something similar will probably happen when states in the US go bankrupt.

[saxitoxin]

Something similar will probably happen when states in the US go bankrupt.

Good point! Though I will venture to say even California's financial troubles don't hold a candle to some parts of Germany.

In "Germany's California", the economic powerhouse of NRW - I am led to believe (I haven't been to DE in 20 years due to a legal misunderstanding, so this is only from friends and news reports) that they no longer activate the street lights at night, they're asking children to wear coats in class so they don't have to turn on the heat, they've started to gate and fence parks and so forth ... shades of 1921.