BREAKING NEWS : Auto Assault Intensity Levels Aren't Sticky.

[frickin00b]

My most recent experience was a 30 vs 2 loss against a neutral terit. It took me 12 rolls before I got one kill, then the cpu rolled 6's 3 times to kill off the 3v1s, then I lost the 2v1 and then the 1v1 out of spite. I mean, aren't the odds of getting at 'least' one defender about 60+% of the time? And then loose 3 times 3v1 after that? What are the odds? I think it would be more likely to have a meteor crash into my ho.....*poof*

[RADAGA]

I mean, aren't the odds of getting at 'least' one defender about 60+% of the time? And then loose 3 times 3v1 after that? What are the odds? I think it would be more likely to have a meteor crash into my ho.....*poof*

Those odds are true... for dice... Here, the odds are either you get perfect dice results, or you are one of the chosen to get only crappy ones. Welcome to my group.

[BaldAdonis]

I mean, aren't the odds of getting at 'least' one defender about 60+% of the time? And then loose 3 times 3v1 after that? What are the odds? I think it would be more likely to have a meteor crash into my ho.....*poof*

Those odds are true... for dice... Here, the odds are either you get perfect dice results, or you are one of the chosen to get only crappy ones. Welcome to my group.

I think you're losing more because you're willing to attack two defenders with 2 or 3 attackers, than because of bad dice. Everyone gets bad dice, but other players don't get mad about it and don't make bad moves after it happens.

If you've really got a problem, take it up with random.org. They'll sort you out.

[RADAGA]

If you've really got a problem, take it up with random.org. They'll sort you out.

Yep! They will say: suck it up, our dice are perfect. And we don´t know or have any responsibility over anything conquer club related. Even if we DO provide their data, we have no commitment whatsoever with them or their players.

Been there, done that.

I think you're losing more because you're willing to attack two defenders with 2 or 3 attackers, than because of bad dice. Everyone gets bad dice, but other players don't get mad about it and don't make bad moves after it happens.

And I think what he said is that he lost TWELVE 3x2 in a row, then killed 1 defender, maiking it a 3x1.

Then he lost 3 times in a row a 3x1 (15% odds each the "1" gets it)

and only then he decided, because he was mad (who would not be?) try a 2x1 (still a good chance) and lastly a 1x1.

In other words, in spite of you trying to imply he was attacking TWO defenders with two attackers, it have not happened at all... not a single time. Stop trying to try to picture people who complain about the dice as morons, we are not. If things are really honest here, we are, at the very least, unlucky. VERY unlucky. Like losing 30x2 (several times over, in a month) unlucky.

Also the falacy of "we roll millions of dice here, it is bound to happen" does not stick. Simply because I dont care how many dice are rolled in VEGAS each night, if I come up there and roll a streak of 12 snake eyes, no one will come to me and say: hey, this is perfectly normal, all cassinos here combined roll each nigiht a million dice, this will happen with all our costumers at least once.

In shorter words: to say that you get one-in-a-million results weekly happens because of the raw ammount of dice everyone rolls is pure BS. What matters is how many times YOU roll.

[e_i_pi]

Dammit, I thought RADAGA was simply a bot that auto-posted to All Dice Complaints Threads (Merged) topic once every 12 hours. Looks like someone's reconfigured him for this thread

[RADAGA]

Dammit, I thought RADAGA was simply a bot that auto-posted to All Dice Complaints Threads (Merged) topic once every 12 hours. Looks like someone's reconfigured him for this thread

I have not complained about any of mine dice rolls. Should then I infer that you´d rather not see me pósting at all? May I still post on topics like birthday threads and the like, or should I abide and be silent?

Better yet, should I be banned, once any comment on my part is not welcome?

[Timminz]

Radaga, have you installed the dice analyzer? If so, may we see your results?

[RADAGA]

Radaga, have you installed the dice analyzer? If so, may we see your results?

No, I have not. But I can tell you I just attacked (game 3506557, round 14)

2008-10-30 10:42:18 - RADAGA assaulted Province of Karbala from Province of Babil and conquered it from 8LimbWorrior

that was a 6x1 ... I won the province on the last 1x1.

I will install the dice analyzer, but I know it will be said: oh, those are not valid, you need a million rolls before you can even start to look at the results.


EDIT: installed it now

[RADAGA]

So far, a pretty consistent example of how my turns usually go:

Game name: 'conquerclub'

Attacker dice distribution Defender dice distribution
1s █████████████████████████ 4 / 14 (28.57%) █████████████████████████ 2 / 9 (22.22%)
2s █████████████████████████ 2 / 14 (14.29%) █████████████████████████ 1 / 9 (11.11%)
3s █████████████████████████ 2 / 14 (14.29%) █████████████████████████ 1 / 9 (11.11%)
4s █████████████████████████ 2 / 14 (14.29%) █████████████████████████ 0 / 9 (0%)
5s █████████████████████████ 2 / 14 (14.29%) █████████████████████████ 2 / 9 (22.22%)
6s █████████████████████████ 2 / 14 (14.29%) █████████████████████████ 3 / 9 (33.33%)

Battle Outcomes Actual Stats Ideal Stats
3v2 █████████████████████████ 0 / 1 / 2 (0% / 33.33% / 66.67%) (37.17% / 33.58% / 29.26%)
3v1 █████████████████████████ 1 / 0 (100% / 0%) (65.97% / 34.03%)
2v2 █████████████████████████ 0 / 1 / 0 (0% / 100% / 0%) (22.76% / 32.41% / 44.83%)
2v1 █████████████████████████ 0 / 0 (NaN% / NaN%) (57.87% / 42.13%)
1v2 █████████████████████████ 0 / 0 (NaN% / NaN%) (25.46% / 74.54%)
1v1 █████████████████████████ 0 / 0 (NaN% / NaN%) (41.67% / 58.33%)

33% of defense were sixes... and nearly 56% were fives+sixes.

attacks, of 14 dice, 4 were ones.

As for battles go, one tie, two losses.

[yeti_c]

You've attacked 5 times and you're convinced?

C.

[Frop]

(...) It is flawed, but it is still the best one free online we can get. So I wont bother complaining anymore.

[RADAGA]

Game name: 'conquerclub'

Attacker dice distribution Defender dice distribution
1s █████████████████████████ 24 / 125 (19.2%) █████████████████████████ 18 / 73 (24.66%)
2s █████████████████████████ 21 / 125 (16.8%) █████████████████████████ 9 / 73 (12.33%)
3s █████████████████████████ 25 / 125 (20%) █████████████████████████ 16 / 73 (21.92%)
4s █████████████████████████ 17 / 125 (13.6%) █████████████████████████ 6 / 73 (8.22%)
5s █████████████████████████ 18 / 125 (14.4%) █████████████████████████ 10 / 73 (13.7%)
6s █████████████████████████ 20 / 125 (16%) █████████████████████████ 14 / 73 (19.18%)

Battle Outcomes Actual Stats Ideal Stats
3v2 █████████████████████████ 10 / 7 / 12 (34.48% / 24.14% / 41.38%) (37.17% / 33.58% / 29.26%)
3v1 █████████████████████████ 9 / 2 (81.82% / 18.18%) (65.97% / 34.03%)
2v2 █████████████████████████ 0 / 1 / 0 (0% / 100% / 0%) (22.76% / 32.41% / 44.83%)
2v1 █████████████████████████ 0 / 1 (0% / 100%) (57.87% / 42.13%)
1v2 █████████████████████████ 0 / 0 (NaN% / NaN%) (25.46% / 74.54%)
1v1 █████████████████████████ 1 / 0 (100% / 0%) (41.67% / 58.33%)

Better now? 41.38% of total losses on 3x2 - almost 50% over the "expected"
10 wins, 7 draws, 12 losses ... should have been at least the other way around.

And frop: please go and be rude somewhere else, I have not attacked no one here personally, but I cannot say the other way around. So far I am being polite.

[Night Strike]

RADAGA, you have to have a LARGE sample to show anything statistical about the dice. Here's my dice stats (please notice the number of rolls that have been made):

Attacker dice distribution Defender dice distribution
1s █████████████████████████ 6724 / 40882 (16.45%) █████████████████████████ 3688 / 21464 (17.18%)
2s █████████████████████████ 6823 / 40882 (16.69%) █████████████████████████ 3534 / 21464 (16.46%)
3s █████████████████████████ 6825 / 40882 (16.69%) █████████████████████████ 3605 / 21464 (16.8%)
4s █████████████████████████ 6913 / 40882 (16.91%) █████████████████████████ 3553 / 21464 (16.55%)
5s █████████████████████████ 6889 / 40882 (16.85%) █████████████████████████ 3464 / 21464 (16.14%)
6s █████████████████████████ 6708 / 40882 (16.41%) █████████████████████████ 3620 / 21464 (16.87%)

Battle Outcomes Actual Stats Ideal Stats
3v2 █████████████████████████ 2725 / 2490 / 2102 (37.24% / 34.03% / 28.73%) (37.17% / 33.58% / 29.26%)
3v1 █████████████████████████ 3914 / 1944 (66.81% / 33.19%) (65.97% / 34.03%)
2v2 █████████████████████████ 26 / 52 / 39 (22.22% / 44.44% / 33.33%) (22.76% / 32.41% / 44.83%)
2v1 █████████████████████████ 227 / 194 (53.92% / 46.08%) (57.87% / 42.13%)
1v2 █████████████████████████ 6 / 30 (16.67% / 83.33%) (25.46% / 74.54%)
1v1 █████████████████████████ 98 / 147 (40% / 60%) (41.67% / 58.33%)

As you can see, my numbers are nearly ideal, and there have been over 40,000 and 21,000 dice thrown, respectively. Also, have you actually looked at the analysis thread (Clicky)?? If you think the dice are actually broken, run your own complete analysis on them or design your own program. If you want to keep complaining about them, take it to the venting thread or to flame wars.

[RADAGA]

Of course mr republican.

So you say you MUST have 1.000.000 rolls to have consistent statistical data on things that vary from 1 to 6.

Game name: 'conquerclub'

Attacker dice distribution Defender dice distribution
1s █████████████████████████ 62 / 331 (18.73%) █████████████████████████ 41 / 187 (21.93%)
2s █████████████████████████ 57 / 331 (17.22%) █████████████████████████ 26 / 187 (13.9%)
3s █████████████████████████ 62 / 331 (18.73%) █████████████████████████ 36 / 187 (19.25%)
4s █████████████████████████ 46 / 331 (13.9%) █████████████████████████ 28 / 187 (14.97%)
5s █████████████████████████ 52 / 331 (15.71%) █████████████████████████ 28 / 187 (14.97%)
6s █████████████████████████ 52 / 331 (15.71%) █████████████████████████ 28 / 187 (14.97%)

Battle Outcomes Actual Stats Ideal Stats
3v2 █████████████████████████ 25 / 17 / 26 (36.76% / 25% / 38.24%) (37.17% / 33.58% / 29.26%)
3v1 █████████████████████████ 28 / 8 (77.78% / 22.22%) (65.97% / 34.03%)
2v2 █████████████████████████ 1 / 2 / 0 (33.33% / 66.67% / 0%) (22.76% / 32.41% / 44.83%)
2v1 █████████████████████████ 3 / 2 (60% / 40%) (57.87% / 42.13%)
1v2 █████████████████████████ 0 / 1 (0% / 100%) (25.46% / 74.54%)
1v1 █████████████████████████ 1 / 1 (50% / 50%) (41.67% / 58.33%)

If you look at that, it shows what I have been hammering since the beginning: ALTHOUGH defense have a high number of ONES TWOS and THREES, the loss percentage is WAY above the expected. It is even above the win percentage. The combined factor that the NUMBERS ROLLED are close to ideal, but the WINxLOSS percentages are FAR OFF means it is STREAKY, since TIES favor defence.

And of COURSE, in 10.000.000 rolls things will even out. Because the streakness becomes camuflated on the sheer number of rolls.

But EVERY SINGLE small ammount of data I have seen favors defense much more than it should.

Are we just unlucky, or there is something more?

Defense threw 21% of their dice as ONES . that SHOULD have granted a high win percentage. BUT it did not. why? Because at the same time defense was rolling it´s ONE´s, attackers also got their share .. streaky streaky streaky

It does not happens every time, granted, but enough to unbalance things as we see here, with 40% (instead of 30%) favoring defence. That´s 30% off. One of each three rolles of mine show an unexpected value toward full defence.

In total, we average 0.026% difference from what we would expect if we had hand picked the dice to be perfectly distributed. 0.026% means that you will see a non-perfectly distributed (i.e. random) roll twice in every ten thousand rolls.

So I have a sample that is 346 times above the expected CC standards, since I have 9 percentage points over what is expected on a 3x2. that is about it.