Ok...sorry in advance for the long post, but this is where I'm currently at. It seems like we are entering the height of the game where each day there is going to be a lot of information to synthesize. If you don't feel like reading my essay, skip to the bottom for my current vote.

#1) I think Town has enough leads and suspicious targets that we should definitely lynch again before our Day 3 timeframe closes. I just rechecked, and we had a 7-day cap on Day 1. Day 3 started at midnight of the 26th. So we have roughly 5 days to get our sh*t together on the votes.

#2) Pixar has been the focal point and I personally have found him to be...confusing.

degaston wrote:

Ragian wrote:How are you on Pixar, Deg?

He's about in the middle for me. I give him some credit for being on both halrob votes. (though not too much, because it was pretty obvious that he was a lost cause, and could try to get some town credit by voting for him) I'm also generally happy with his activity level, and want to hear what else he has to say.

While I tend to agree, I think it's important to consider the target of the vote and his/her status amongst the group. Pixar's Day 2 vote is indeed not informative or telling because Halrob was a lost cause by that point. But, I do think Day 1 actions are telling because I have a hard time believing that any player, regardless of their capability for deception, would vote for a member of their coalition that fast:

*Pixar* wrote:LETS PRESSURE THIS FOOL.

Unvote Dunk

Vote Halrob

Halrob was pretty much a lost cause by Day 2, but I think the situation was still salvageable for his Mafia company Day 1, so I find it hard to believe that Pixar would be that quick to turn on a member of his coalition. If you go back and read through the meat of Day 1, Pixar's allegiance to Mafia just...doesn't make the most sense.

Now, I agree that he is probably not town given the useful information Maxleod and pershy have shared. This leads me to concur that Pixar is third party. Andrei, I agree that Pixar has been caught in a web of confusing statements and lies, but this may be the result of him panicking under the pressure a bit and sharing half-truths and incriminating himself.

I don't know how to interpret all this silencing going on. Perhaps he has a third party accomplice accompanying him on night actions (cult?) responsible for the silencing. His silencing of players who, to me, seem Town is anti-Town, but his activity level and willingness to contribute to votes is pro-Town, which leaves me at a completely neutral stance on him.

#3) I think Pepe is Town's safest choice for a lynch Day 3, but also struggle with this:

degaston wrote:Pepe is high on my scum list, mostly for his refusal to switch his vote yesterday, but trying to lynch him while he can't claim or defend himself seems scummy as well.

He stood out like a sore thumb on Day 2 and is always a "fallback" option, so if time is really running out, I'd vote him in a heartbeat. I also don't consider Pepe a deceptive or complicated player, so if Town can get a more dangerous player's number down, I'd tend to favor that.

#4) So then we get to "The Quiet Group". Something I'm learning as I go through my first Mafia game is that Town's strongest tool to win the game is information sharing, being investigative, contributing, and voting. Players who are Town and don't vote are as good as Mafia. Through your inactivity, you allow your fellow Townies to die each night and essentially work for the opposing team. These are the 4 players who did not meaningfully contribute to the Day 2 Lynch:

1) cdbridges -> Defense Attorney/Warden (suggested to "search the premises for existing players" immediately Day 1 when it has now been revealed we have a Ghost...that seems oddly knowledgeable and quick. Also peculiarly disinterested in contributing to votes which seems non-Town).
2) Dukasaur -> Pershy's ability seems incredibly useful for Town, if each day a player is "brainwashed" and has to say how they view themselves in the public thread for collective knowledge. If Dukasaur's post is indeed how he views himself, to me is cleared for the time being.
3) General Bax
4) TheJMac -> Bandwagon on an already-lynched player is SUPER suspicious as others have pointed out, but prior to that I thought his posts came across as honest. He posted a full "brain dump" on his Day 2 thoughts and I found most of his conclusions to be reasonable and insightful.

#5) And then we have Bax. Let's look collectively at what he has contributed to the group:

Day 1 contribution:

General Bax wrote:well, know i'm innocent, but i'm willing to make an offer no one can refuse...

Did not vote at all. Low-grade suspicion for me.

Day 2 contribution:

General Bax wrote:having a power does not meant you HAVE to use it.

sometimes restraint is no less powerful.

the information i learned last night is already out in the thread.

Still no voting. Actively suspicious in my book.

Day 3 contribution:

General Bax wrote:I did not vote for the lynch because it was just no-sense brut force, as the late lynched participant could have been town or scum - no one knows.

I don't think the present data can support any intelligent informed decision as of yet, and therefore unless some substantive evidence miraculously appear, I believe it would be wiser to wait for day 4 prior to any more lynch parades.

Continues to show zero interest in voting. DEFINITELY suspicious in my book. This player is lying through his teeth or has no clue what's going on if he thinks there was no evidence to support the vote on Halrob. Even if he flipped Town after a town lynch, he's not a loss toward Town's efforts to win.

I would prefer to get out one of "The Quiet Group" as I consider them more indirectly dangerous to Town. But, if we can't come together on a vote, I think a last-ditch effort to get out Pepe is also in order.
Vote General Bax.

Okay finally got time to respond to joshzam's questions, which should help some...

joshzam wrote:

*Pixar* wrote:

joshzam wrote:

*Pixar* wrote:I will share that I do have a message ability and during the day2 I sent one to Halrob saying "Any last words SCUM? Better start coming up with your fake identity now before it's too late..." And he did not post a thing even with that threat. But yeah of course he can't share that because the SCUM is dead now.

Pix, according to your role, who are you allowed to write messages to?
Is there a limit to the number of messages you may write?
Have you written to anyone else? (hopefully someone who is still alive)

I can write to anyone, I am limited to 1 day/1 night. I wrote you the silly one about the soap on Night 1. Halrob on day 2. Forgot to use my day ability on Day 1 lol

1. Who did you write to on N2?
2. Who have you written to on D3?
3. Why did you choose to write that "silly"/threatening message to me on N1? ("Now you are vulnerable and should be scared for your life tomorrow")
4. Now that you've already claimed your abilities, what is the actual TITLE of your role?

If you want to be trusted, you will need to provide verifiable info.

1. Night 2 I wrote to Pepe "I've been watching you and your anxiety level rise as you sit in the corner of your cell watching your brother Halrob get thrown off the 1st floor. You're looking pretty guilty, I hope you have good reasoning in the morning. " Of course, he was silenced and cannot respond now.

2. Today I have written to Dukasaur which seems someone messed with his mind overnight or something? Not sure if he received my message or not?

3. Being day 1 not having any info/no lynch that day I had nothing to go off of other than the minor dunk comment. I was basically just seeing if you were going to come forward with the message or not, nothin too serious.

4. You want to know my title? This may help you guys go AHHHHHH I get it now.

Razorvich wrote:

i-andrei wrote:Wait, who's the 25th?

My appologies, wile did drop out before the game started, I have fixed this error.

23 have been dropped off

24 remain alive

13 for a lynch

Notice how 23 were dropped off and 24 remain alive? You guys thought there might be some type of "Warden" role? Not as far as I know no. I have the title of "Ghost" living in the cells since you all arrived. That's the reason why whoever visits me is getting silenced and I cannot be night killed.

fusibaseball wrote:

i-andrei wrote:Your vote just shows i'm right
I will hold on more comments for now. And i would have something to share about night 1, but i don't think it would help town, but rather mafia, so i won't do it.

Right about what? Please make clear accusations to give me the opportunity to prove you wrong.

How could you obtain info overnight that would help Mafia more than Town? Do you have some sort of lookup ability (thinking of Detective) and used It on a Townie? Can't think of much else that would fall into this basket. Perhaps if you are Warden you have knowledge of a Town-on-Town misdirected kill (Jonah)...that would be damaging knowledge I guess. Also, if you were Warden you wouldn't have gotten much from Night 2 given the results are minimal.

And if you're so bothered by me, you can use your lookup ability on me Night 3, and get your peace of mind. That way we can stop going at each other's throats.

My only observations were that there were things that didn't add up in your story.
Regarding the info i got, i think most of the people here that are town are not revealing abilities to not get targeted by Mafia. And i will just leave it at that.

i-andrei wrote:Your vote just shows i'm right
I will hold on more comments for now. And i would have something to share about night 1, but i don't think it would help town, but rather mafia, so i won't do it.

Right about what? Please make clear accusations to give me the opportunity to prove you wrong.

How could you obtain info overnight that would help Mafia more than Town? Do you have some sort of lookup ability (thinking of Detective) and used It on a Townie? Can't think of much else that would fall into this basket. Perhaps if you are Warden you have knowledge of a Town-on-Town misdirected kill (Jonah)...that would be damaging knowledge I guess. Also, if you were Warden you wouldn't have gotten much from Night 2 given the results are minimal.

And if you're so bothered by me, you can use your lookup ability on me Night 3, and get your peace of mind. That way we can stop going at each other's throats.

fusibaseball wrote:

i-andrei wrote:
And how could you overlook that specific comment?
You seem like a very structured person and it doesn't seem like a comment that you would just pass over.
This plus that loose canon killing night 1 makes me wonder.

I wonder a lot of things about you. This is the second time you have been VERY quick to point the finger at me, the only player who was forthcoming about their Night 1 action and who led the vote to kill a player who flipped Mafia day 2. And I am trying to keep Town on track for Day 3 with all of these other conversations going on.

Why did Halrob name you as the Informant? He was clearly a terrible liar and basically gave up his role in his first post. So there is some connection there on his mind. I'm starting to think you are actually the Warden now as he mentioned "I have access to the Warden".
This would make a lot of sense considering you were even faster than me considering that Loose Canon could have killed someone prior Night 1. A Warden I believe has knowledge of all events, so you would definitely know that.
And coming from you who has shared nothing about either of your 2 night actions?

We can lead the witch hunts against each other, and if you win and I flip Town, everyone will know to go after you? How's that sound? Vote I-andrei.

Your vote just shows i'm right
I will hold on more comments for now. And i would have something to share about night 1, but i don't think it would help town, but rather mafia, so i won't do it.

i-andrei wrote:
And how could you overlook that specific comment?
You seem like a very structured person and it doesn't seem like a comment that you would just pass over.
This plus that loose canon killing night 1 makes me wonder.

I wonder a lot of things about you. This is the second time you have been VERY quick to point the finger at me, the only player who was forthcoming about their Night 1 action and who led the vote to kill a player who flipped Mafia day 2. And I am trying to keep Town on track for Day 3 with all of these other conversations going on.

Why did Halrob name you as the Informant? He was clearly a terrible liar and basically gave up his role in his first post. So there is some connection there on his mind. I'm starting to think you are actually the Warden now as he mentioned "I have access to the Warden".
This would make a lot of sense considering you were even faster than me considering that Loose Canon could have killed someone prior Night 1. A Warden I believe has knowledge of all events, so you would definitely know that.
And coming from you who has shared nothing about either of your 2 night actions?

We can lead the witch hunts against each other, and if you win and I flip Town, everyone will know to go after you? How's that sound? Vote I-andrei.

I agree with joshzam, I logged in to see if there was any halrob64 post, there isn't and following through with my vote as stated.

Double sealing the decision I received a note in my inbox, it looks that it was sent to me directly from MOD Raz in that blue text. Looks similar to the day1 message someone posted, I am choosing to share it and don't want to discourage sender.

"In the corner of your cell you see a folded paper

You have recieved a message.

WaLk WiTh Me,,,,,,,,ItChY eVeRyOnE iS iTcHy YoU cAn SeE iT aNd I cAn SeE iT pEoPlE aRe UnPrEdIcTaBlE aNd ThAt CaNnOt Be LeFt To ChAnCeS fAt Or SlIm HaL iS oN tHe BlOcK jUsT dO tHe ChOp ChOp OfF wItH HeAd I hAvE dEtAiLs AnD wArDeN wAnTs ThE cElLs PaInTeD rEd If YoU dElAy YoU aRe ThE oNe WhO wIlL bE cUtTeD

YOU MAY SHARE THIS MESSAGE WITH THE GROUP IF YOU CHOOSE
"

Vote halrob64

fusibaseball wrote:

Razorvich wrote:
You are all being watched and shall be judged accordingly.
Actions speak louder than words. Action is what is required.
...
The Warden is not happy."[/i]

At this stage the Mod is basically outright telling us to take action and vote someone, which to me is actually pretty concerning for Town.

I don't have to address everything right now, but that is a voice from the cell block. I don't think that is Razor saying that, so don't necessarily trust it.

Though I do think everyone needs to vote.

Razorvich wrote:
You are all being watched and shall be judged accordingly.
Actions speak louder than words. Action is what is required.
...
The Warden is not happy."[/i]

At this stage the Mod is basically outright telling us to take action and vote someone, which to me is actually pretty concerning for Town.

We have 19 players left, 16 of whom are eligible to vote. 8 have voted Halrob, we have 1 basically declaring his allegiance to Halrob through a stubborn distractor vote, and Halrob cannot vote for himself = 10. So we have 6 players who have not voted:

1) actorday
2) cdbridges
3) Dukasaur
4) General Bax
5) joshzam
6) TheJMac

We can surmise a few things from this group...this will form the majority/entirety of his 3rd party/Mafia coalition with Pepe if we are able to reveal his allegiance. We may have an advanced player or two who is intentionally voting for his own "tribe' to maintain his appearance but, this early, I think that is a niche case. Other than Pepe, the rest of them have been forced into a sort of inactivity from not wanting to stick their neck out and declare themselves.

I wonder if we can also place the Warden in this group if the Warden is unable to vote (or I suppose could still be Halrob himself but every day I move further and further away from this thought process).

By this point I think Town should also assume that, most likely, chanakam, pershy, and Maxleod are somehow collectively/individually responsible for the kill onto traffic and are thus, at the very least, not ANTI-town. There is still a possibility that one of the active 16 was responsible and is prevented from divulging their knowledge but I think the former is more likely.

Most importantly, I think we have 1 or 2 straggler Townies left in the above group at most who have not voted. Not more than that. So we will need 100% participation from town to get this vote through.

fusibaseball wrote:Ok...I think the most important first question is who killed traffic, what was your basis, and who else do you think/know to be Mafia? I have a suspicion that this "hushed" group perhaps has knowledge and is now silenced as they have used up their powerful ability?

I will say that I am responsible for Loose Canon's death. This kill was "viewed" by another player in the darkness but I do have knowledge of who. I'm town but had the ability to kill one player across the entire game, and I was positive that he was scum. Given that Raz had also dropped hints that this would be a "fast-paced game" and the Doctor was our no-show further hindering Town's power, I figured it best to use my role early and hope it worked. And if he was, I knew the other 4 or 5 on my list that I had grouped with him were scum too. But now I'm thinking they are all a 3rd party coalition and know I'm being fooled by another group.

Lots to unpack in Raz's post...but notice Bax AND Cdbridges are grouped together. So I don't believe either of them are the 24th "god"/warden role (Bax was my second choice). I now believe them to be third party and/or a second "silenced" group for their kill on traffic. That leads me to think halrob is still the 24th player.

Note also pershy and I-andrei have been separated, even though I had them clumped together as "note-bringers" Day 1. Why would pershy be in a silenced group while I-andrei continues unhindered?

Regardless, I think town has to go for someone on Day 2 as my suspicion is our numbers are dwindling fast and by day 3, I'm not even sure a majority vote on a Mafia player will be possible. We need A) more information, B) to get on a same thread, and C) try something.

I don't think that if you're town and you have 1 kill for the whole game you kill night 1.
Why? I
I think you either killed someone else and you lie to cover up a town kill, or you might be the 24th role.

About the 24th role, and knowing Raz, we might all have to work together against that one.

Regarding Pershy, chanakram and Maxleod, it's a bit polarised, I think they either killed or saw the kill.

Ok...I think the most important first question is who killed traffic, what was your basis, and who else do you think/know to be Mafia? I have a suspicion that this "hushed" group perhaps has knowledge and is now silenced as they have used up their powerful ability?

I will say that I am responsible for Loose Canon's death. This kill was "viewed" by another player in the darkness but I do have knowledge of who. I'm town but had the ability to kill one player across the entire game, and I was positive that he was scum. Given that Raz had also dropped hints that this would be a "fast-paced game" and the Doctor was our no-show further hindering Town's power, I figured it best to use my role early and hope it worked. And if he was, I knew the other 4 or 5 on my list that I had grouped with him were scum too. But now I'm thinking they are all a 3rd party coalition and know I'm being fooled by another group.

Lots to unpack in Raz's post...but notice Bax AND Cdbridges are grouped together. So I don't believe either of them are the 24th "god"/warden role (Bax was my second choice). I now believe them to be third party and/or a second "silenced" group for their kill on traffic. That leads me to think halrob is still the 24th player.

Note also pershy and I-andrei have been separated, even though I had them clumped together as "note-bringers" Day 1. Why would pershy be in a silenced group while I-andrei continues unhindered?

Regardless, I think town has to go for someone on Day 2 as my suspicion is our numbers are dwindling fast and by day 3, I'm not even sure a majority vote on a Mafia player will be possible. We need A) more information, B) to get on a same thread, and C) try something.

For the record, while I was the first to theorize that a "warden"-type role might be in play, I'm super proud that Razor has since used this term in his cryptic messages. Point for me! It wasn't a huge leap of logic, honestly. We're in a prison and one person apparently stands apart from the rest. I couldn't think what else it could be. But then halrob confirmed it before Razor made it official.

The Warden role is a rare one that doesn't appear in Mafia often, but it totally exists. Two different flavors can be found here:
https://creatures-of-sonaria-official.f ... 0000464349
https://wikimafia.fandom.com/wiki/Warden

I'm thinking we might have something akin to the first one. The second one sounds a bit too generic, whereas this game has already set the role up to be something special.

I'd also like halrob to answer degaston's questions as specifically as possible. And I'd remind everyone (especially those unfamiliar with Mafia) that voting to pressure is effective but hammering before info is shared is scummy as hell. Just don't let it get too close to a lynch unless you really mean to kill.

degaston wrote:

halrob64 wrote:There is an informant who has access to the warden be very careful what you say. I have strong intelligence on who it is

1. This was the only time you mentioned a warden. Was that part of the message, or did you just add that on your own?

Just noticed this. It seems halrob mentioned the warden before Razor sent the last message mentioning him also.
So he might know something. But for sure I am not an informant lol.
And if we search the thread, joshzam mentioned the warden first on the 11th of April. https://www.conquerclub.com/forum/search.php?keywords=warden&t=239406&sf=msgonly

I'm gonna unvote for now, just to see what the night brings.

Unvote

halrob64 wrote:Well make up your own mind Dungestan is full of shit, nothing is impossible and who is making the most of trying to silence me??

If you're town, you should be trying to convince people of that. The best way to do that is to respond to questions. Here are a few:

halrob64 wrote:There is an informant who has access to the warden be very careful what you say. I have strong intelligence on who it is

1. This was the only time you mentioned a warden. Was that part of the message, or did you just add that on your own?
   
   

   halrob64 wrote:where you getting your info from Dunk, the informer?

2. Was there a connection between this and the message, or was there some other reason you named Dunk?
   
   

   halrob64 wrote:This is the point I'm making, this was a message that was removed before I saw it, another appeared which was clearly not meant for me as it named a Mafia informant and when I went back the message all trace if it was gone.

3. Did the message say that the informant was Mafia, or did you add that?
   
   
4. When, exactly, did you get the emails that there were messages in your inbox?

Razorvich wrote:The same voice is heard once again bellowing from the cells

His message:

"The prison walls are talking but you all are just not on the same frequency.
The warden sees and knows all that happens within his walls. His reach runs deep.
Those in the dark are fearing the light.
Loose lips abound and there will be a reckoning."

YOU, the first 23 inmates are now in you new home for the duration of your sentance

Ok so based on this 2, the 24th role might be a Warden, which should be Town alligned and I'm guessing it has access to all messages sent/ received by the other 23.
I don't think halrob is that cause it would be stupid of him to disclose that. Also guessing that role would want to remain incognito for a while.

Thanks for everyone writing out their conclusions, I didn't pick up on half the stuff others did. One thing that I can say is halrob64 made no fucking sense whatsoever, at any point in time. Direct questions dodged, every post just seemed like you had a seizure on thread or something.

Sorry halrob64, I just can't see your thought process here. Beyond suspicious.
VOTE halrob64


As for the mod's note, suggests Warden role is alive and sounds like they are privy to anything happening in private. Any idea what power they have to kill or save etc, Or just passive observer ?

Those in the dark are fearing the light.

Dark hasn't come yet, I read this as people pointing fingers at more Mafia than Town thus far in chat?

Loose lips abound and there will be a reckoning.

Someone gave info they shouldn't have already? Warning to that person not to do it again?

There is an informant who has access to the warden be very careful what you say. I have strong intelligence on who it is

i-andrei wrote:

TrafalgarLaw01 wrote:

cdbridges wrote:

joshzam wrote:It's hard to apply any calculation you may have found to our game because we don't know how many Town and how many Scum there are here. Also, calculations just don't usually hold up in Mafia, as it's more of a game of intuition, vibe, and trust. I've never seen a convincing argument to always or never lynch on day 1.

I do find it interesting that there are 23 inmates and 24 in the game. Some sort of special "warden" or "God" role maybe? Could it be third-party? Any thoughts?

Someone must have been here already when we were dropped. Who was that? Let's search the place if no one volunteers. We should know that person's story.

Is someone sentenced for life? Like maybe there we could find a reason for someone killing the other inmates

What do you mean?

Dunk said he has 15 years sentence for Arson, I got 20 years sentence for Blackmail, but I haven't killed anyone, and still hope to go back to my family

TrafalgarLaw01 wrote:

cdbridges wrote:

joshzam wrote:It's hard to apply any calculation you may have found to our game because we don't know how many Town and how many Scum there are here. Also, calculations just don't usually hold up in Mafia, as it's more of a game of intuition, vibe, and trust. I've never seen a convincing argument to always or never lynch on day 1.

I do find it interesting that there are 23 inmates and 24 in the game. Some sort of special "warden" or "God" role maybe? Could it be third-party? Any thoughts?

Someone must have been here already when we were dropped. Who was that? Let's search the place if no one volunteers. We should know that person's story.

Is someone sentenced for life? Like maybe there we could find a reason for someone killing the other inmates

What do you mean?

cdbridges wrote:

joshzam wrote:It's hard to apply any calculation you may have found to our game because we don't know how many Town and how many Scum there are here. Also, calculations just don't usually hold up in Mafia, as it's more of a game of intuition, vibe, and trust. I've never seen a convincing argument to always or never lynch on day 1.

I do find it interesting that there are 23 inmates and 24 in the game. Some sort of special "warden" or "God" role maybe? Could it be third-party? Any thoughts?

Someone must have been here already when we were dropped. Who was that? Let's search the place if no one volunteers. We should know that person's story.

Is someone sentenced for life? Like maybe there we could find a reason for someone killing the other inmates

joshzam wrote:It's hard to apply any calculation you may have found to our game because we don't know how many Town and how many Scum there are here. Also, calculations just don't usually hold up in Mafia, as it's more of a game of intuition, vibe, and trust. I've never seen a convincing argument to always or never lynch on day 1.

I do find it interesting that there are 23 inmates and 24 in the game. Some sort of special "warden" or "God" role maybe? Could it be third-party? Any thoughts?

Someone must have been here already when we were dropped. Who was that? Let's search the place if no one volunteers. We should know that person's story.

joshzam wrote:It's hard to apply any calculation you may have found to our game because we don't know how many Town and how many Scum there are here. Also, calculations just don't usually hold up in Mafia, as it's more of a game of intuition, vibe, and trust. I've never seen a convincing argument to always or never lynch on day 1.

I do find it interesting that there are 23 inmates and 24 in the game. Some sort of special "warden" or "God" role maybe? Could it be third-party? Any thoughts?

There are certainly third-party, some has special win objectives that's stated in the post.

*Pixar* wrote:The only sorta clue I have to go off of is Dunk90 saying "(I don't mind being scum btw)" after roles were released on April 8th. He posted that in signups on April 9th...

In that case I got Vote Dunk90

I Usually wound't like to lynch in day 1. But I was about to say the same thing, he gave himself away.

Vote Dunk90