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Powerless mafia, Day Two

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Re: Powerless mafia, Day One

Postby dgz345 on Wed Aug 14, 2019 1:23 am

@blacky.

What I wanted to say with my post was that if one of em flips scum. There is a raise in fos for those who's does not want to vote no lynch right now.

Only mafia knows who their scum buddy is.

But as someone said above. You get voting patterns from no lynch votes aswell.
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Re: Powerless mafia, Day One

Postby Ragian on Wed Aug 14, 2019 2:26 am

So, should we prod them? I PM'ed jfm before this game started, but he hasn't replied. I might have pushed a button or something...inadvertently...
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Re: Powerless mafia, Day One

Postby DirtyDishSoap on Wed Aug 14, 2019 6:28 am

Shorty post but id be happy with prodding the afks. Nor sure on the allotted window about mod killing but given there's 2 scum and this is a relatively small game, I'd be happier with getting a lynch in. Scum have night kill so good chance we'll lose on day 2 from losing 3 in one night and not guessing correctly. Im suspicious of the reasoning behind no lynching.
Symmetry wrote:
The ram wrote:
Symmetry wrote:Ok, so some stuff goes over your head?


No not here anyway. He never said they were forced.


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Re: Powerless mafia, Day One

Postby Pikanchion on Wed Aug 14, 2019 6:43 am

No Lynch right now is like getting two lynches in...

DirtyDishSoap wrote:Im suspicious of the reasoning behind no lynching.

Why?
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Re: Powerless mafia, Day One

Postby DirtyDishSoap on Wed Aug 14, 2019 6:53 am

10 players, 2 lynches with a 3rd night kill, and those 2 are likely town to begin with. We're essentially doing nothing and likely to lose. We're left with 7 players with no roles and the most we can get out of the day is basically reactions from voting.
I don't see a town win if we do nothing. More upsetty spaghetti that we'd lose because of having AFKs.
Symmetry wrote:
The ram wrote:
Symmetry wrote:Ok, so some stuff goes over your head?


No not here anyway. He never said they were forced.


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Re: Powerless mafia, Day One

Postby Pikanchion on Wed Aug 14, 2019 7:52 am

1. Every player has an 80% likelihood of being Town, those two aren't special in this.
2. How can it be doing nothing if we're effectively lynching two people?
3. If we were to officially lynch somebody what do we get out of the day but reactions from voting?

aage wrote:***I doubt there will be a lot of reserves here so the deal is as follows. You must post every single game day. If the day ends and you haven't posted, I will modkill you. If someone isn't posting enough to your liking just fckin lynch em.

We're probably not going to get replacements and they've had over 96 hours to post something already, let's just get rid of them and end this day.
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Re: Powerless mafia, Day One

Postby aage on Wed Aug 14, 2019 12:16 pm

I'm currently approaching our absentee players as well as some potential replacements.

Again, if you guys vote them out before I get back from them, they die. It's up to you. It seems fair to let you guys know I'm trying to do something about it as well, though.
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Re: Powerless mafia, Day One

Postby BuJaber on Thu Aug 15, 2019 5:28 am

It's day 1 and the mod is on top of things and we've just started the game. We can afford to wait for them.
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Re: Powerless mafia, Day One

Postby DirtyDishSoap on Thu Aug 15, 2019 5:57 am

Pikanchion wrote:1. Every player has an 80% likelihood of being Town, those two aren't special in this.
2. How can it be doing nothing if we're effectively lynching two people?
3. If we were to officially lynch somebody what do we get out of the day but reactions from voting?

aage wrote:***I doubt there will be a lot of reserves here so the deal is as follows. You must post every single game day. If the day ends and you haven't posted, I will modkill you. If someone isn't posting enough to your liking just fckin lynch em.

We're probably not going to get replacements and they've had over 96 hours to post something already, let's just get rid of them and end this day.

Notice how i said likely town? Not 100% confirmed. We don't need math for probability. In any case, we're lynching two afks and practically learning nothing other than what their role is the next day. Back to square one.
At least by putting pressure on people who are active here, you gain some kind of sense of who is who the next day, or best case scenario, we lynch scum and have a better chance of winning.
Symmetry wrote:
The ram wrote:
Symmetry wrote:Ok, so some stuff goes over your head?


No not here anyway. He never said they were forced.


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Re: Powerless mafia, Day One

Postby dgz345 on Thu Aug 15, 2019 8:17 am

I've just got a hunch that one of the afk people is scum.

But it's just a hunch.
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Re: Powerless mafia, Day One

Postby Pikanchion on Thu Aug 15, 2019 8:29 am

Our options right now, the minimum number of lynches (not including No Lynches) Town will get to perform (more lynches means more scumhunting), and the chance of Town winning from each:

35.75% — 2 Lynches — Don't wait, No Lynch today, Lynch every further day
35.75% — 3 Lynches — Wait for one player, Lynch somebody today, Lynch every further day
34.67% — 2 Lynches — Don't wait, Lynch somebody today, No Lynch tomorrow, Lynch every further day
29.84% — 3 Lynches — Wait for both players, No Lynch today, Lynch every further day
29.14% — 3 Lynches — Wait for both players, Lynch today, No Lynch tomorrow, Lynch every further day
29.14% — 2 Lynches — Wait for one player, No Lynch today, No Lynch tomorow, Lynch every further day
28.06% — 3 Lynches — Don't wait, Lynch somebody today, Lynch every further day
21.56% — 3 Lynches — Wait for both players, Lynch somebody today, Lynch every further day

If you want to maximise scumhunting the optimal strategy is to get somebody (other than either of the missing players) to L-1 before those last two players post or are replaced and demand that in their first post the joining player throws the hammer, killing both the final missing player and the player chosen by the Town. Town will still get an additional two lynches after this even if we fail to hit Mafia every time. Failing that the option with the most scumhunting is to wait for both players and then No Lynch, but this is significantly worse for our chances than doing as described above, No Lynching right now, or Lynching right now and No Lynching tomorrow.
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Re: Powerless mafia, Day One

Postby blacky365 on Thu Aug 15, 2019 10:04 am

dgz345 wrote:I've just got a hunch that one of the afk people is scum.

But it's just a hunch.


Care to expand on this hunch?
And if you think one of the afk's are scum then are you suggesting we vote no lynch now and let 2 die?
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Re: Powerless mafia, Day One

Postby blacky365 on Thu Aug 15, 2019 10:07 am

Pikanchion wrote:Our options right now, the minimum number of lynches (not including No Lynches) Town will get to perform (more lynches means more scumhunting), and the chance of Town winning from each:

35.75% — 2 Lynches — Don't wait, No Lynch today, Lynch every further day
35.75% — 3 Lynches — Wait for one player, Lynch somebody today, Lynch every further day
34.67% — 2 Lynches — Don't wait, Lynch somebody today, No Lynch tomorrow, Lynch every further day
29.84% — 3 Lynches — Wait for both players, No Lynch today, Lynch every further day
29.14% — 3 Lynches — Wait for both players, Lynch today, No Lynch tomorrow, Lynch every further day
29.14% — 2 Lynches — Wait for one player, No Lynch today, No Lynch tomorow, Lynch every further day
28.06% — 3 Lynches — Don't wait, Lynch somebody today, Lynch every further day
21.56% — 3 Lynches — Wait for both players, Lynch somebody today, Lynch every further day

If you want to maximise scumhunting the optimal strategy is to get somebody (other than either of the missing players) to L-1 before those last two players post or are replaced and demand that in their first post the joining player throws the hammer, killing both the final missing player and the player chosen by the Town. Town will still get an additional two lynches after this even if we fail to hit Mafia every time. Failing that the option with the most scumhunting is to wait for both players and then No Lynch, but this is significantly worse for our chances than doing as described above, No Lynching right now, or Lynching right now and No Lynching tomorrow.


My issue with this math and the stats is that it may work in theory but not in the real world.
When we will be lynching, the scum will be having a say and influence who we lynch.
So if scum are persuasive they could just steer conversation away from themselves and the stats would be 0% town win!
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Re: Powerless mafia, Day One

Postby dgz345 on Thu Aug 15, 2019 12:34 pm

I'll just put this out. if one of them shows up as scum. their scum buddy is blacky, strike or DDS.
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Re: Powerless mafia, Day One

Postby blacky365 on Thu Aug 15, 2019 1:00 pm

dgz345 wrote:I'll just put this out. if one of them shows up as scum. their scum buddy is blacky, strike or DDS.


By extension, if neither are scum then you are.
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Re: Powerless mafia, Day One

Postby Pikanchion on Thu Aug 15, 2019 2:05 pm

blacky365 wrote:My issue with this math and the stats is that it may work in theory but not in the real world.
When we will be lynching, the scum will be having a say and influence who we lynch.
So if scum are persuasive they could just steer conversation away from themselves and the stats would be 0% town win!

If you genuinely held that concern surely you would be all in favour for killing the two afk players, they were self-selected by happenstance not steered towards by the players.
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Re: Powerless mafia, Day One

Postby dgz345 on Thu Aug 15, 2019 2:20 pm

blacky365 wrote:
dgz345 wrote:I'll just put this out. if one of them shows up as scum. their scum buddy is blacky, strike or DDS.


By extension, if neither are scum then you are.


Sorry your logic is faulty and very defensive.

A cat is an animal but an animal is not a cat.
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Re: Powerless mafia, Day One

Postby dgz345 on Thu Aug 15, 2019 2:22 pm

dgz345 wrote:
A cat is an animal but an animal is not necessarily a cat.
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Re: Powerless mafia, Day One

Postby blacky365 on Thu Aug 15, 2019 2:27 pm

Pikanchion wrote:
blacky365 wrote:My issue with this math and the stats is that it may work in theory but not in the real world.
When we will be lynching, the scum will be having a say and influence who we lynch.
So if scum are persuasive they could just steer conversation away from themselves and the stats would be 0% town win!

If you genuinely held that concern surely you would be all in favour for killing the two afk players, they were self-selected by happenstance not steered towards by the players.

This is true, however as I stated earlier, I think it unlikely that either are scum.
Jfm is active in games so unlikely he hasn’t read emails. If he were scum he would not want to leave it this long and risk being modkilled. I don’t know the other afk but my thought process is the same soI think it’s highly unlikely to be scum.

Dgz said he has a hunch that one of the afk’s are scum... is that a ploy from scum to try to get us to lynch two townies?

Also, pika mentioned before about taking a player to L-1... what is the point? There are no power roles here so what do you expect them to say?
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Re: Powerless mafia, Day One

Postby blacky365 on Thu Aug 15, 2019 2:34 pm

dgz345 wrote:
blacky365 wrote:
dgz345 wrote:I'll just put this out. if one of them shows up as scum. their scum buddy is blacky, strike or DDS.


By extension, if neither are scum then you are.


Sorry your logic is faulty and very defensive.

A cat is an animal but an animal is not a cat.


Lol ure a funny guy... you were the one who started throwing around accusations...

dgz345 wrote:just note that the FoS on you raises with the potential that you might be delaying for a scum buddy.

right now if jfm or bernie flips scum. blacky and strike is a little bit higher on the scum list than the rest of us. (just a bit)
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Re: Powerless mafia, Day One

Postby Ragian on Thu Aug 15, 2019 3:50 pm

Wellp, I don't know what to do in this game if we aren't going to discuss anything. I will say, though, that discussing whether to discuss also seems productive.

I wonder where Strike went...
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Re: Powerless mafia, Day One

Postby strike wolf on Thu Aug 15, 2019 4:52 pm

Okay yeah. Does that count as a slippery slope argument, a red herring or somwthing else? What if all the bad players are scum and theyre guaranteed to lose? Using the most extreme example does not alter the stats. Theyre outliers and there are reasons scientists tend to exclude the most extreme outliers.

@DDS: havent you generally been pro-no lynchijg day 1 in the past? Or am I thinking of someone else?

dgz345 wrote:I'll just put this out. if one of them shows up as scum. their scum buddy is blacky, strike or DDS.


Is it really that difficult to believe that I didnt want to effectively lynch two players when at the time they had only missed ~48 hours over a weekend?

I'd say if one flips scum, DDS sticks out to me more than blacky. Blacky's last comment is kinda scummy but he seems interested in the game and figuring things out. DDS kept saying he was going,to catch up which to me amounts to fluff. He did make some sense in his explanations but his position goes against previously held positions.

In terms of both flipping town, I think Pika is town. Hes giving me similar vibes to the Customer service game. Youve said a couple things that have thrown me off a bit but I dont read you as particularly scummy overall. Cant say anyone stands out in particular. Maybe Skoffin? Shes been fairly quiet and,popped up only to agree and then vote no lynch.

@@Rage: well thats simple Ive...*Gets dragged off by work*
Iliad wrote:The upside of calling everyone scum and making 1000 predictions is that statistically you should get a few right.


Strike wolf need brain for smart making.
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Re: Powerless mafia, Day One

Postby dgz345 on Thu Aug 15, 2019 5:11 pm

blacky365 wrote:
dgz345 wrote:
blacky365 wrote:
dgz345 wrote:I'll just put this out. if one of them shows up as scum. their scum buddy is blacky, strike or DDS.


By extension, if neither are scum then you are.


Sorry your logic is faulty and very defensive.

A cat is an animal but an animal is not a cat.


Lol ure a funny guy... you were the one who started throwing around accusations...

dgz345 wrote:just note that the FoS on you raises with the potential that you might be delaying for a scum buddy.

right now if jfm or bernie flips scum. blacky and strike is a little bit higher on the scum list than the rest of us. (just a bit)


Yes I started throwing around accusation not only at you but 2 others aswell. Only in the case if one of em flips scum. which I think is a good assumption if one of them flips scum. And I think a lot of the others agree.

But then you went back with an defensive direct accusation against me that won't even float a bit.

A better defense would be to say if they both flip town those three are less likely to be scum I would say by now.

So right now lynching those 2 would give good information about 3 players out of the 7 that will live. (almost 50%)

It's not solid evidence but it's a good bias.

So I think lynching them really really are a good thing for town. It gives a huge amount of information.

This is just my opinion. Feel free to change my mind and come with a better alternative.
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Re: Powerless mafia, Day One

Postby dgz345 on Thu Aug 15, 2019 5:15 pm

Bias might be the wrong wording.

Replace it with start or base.
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Re: Powerless mafia, Day One

Postby Pikanchion on Thu Aug 15, 2019 5:35 pm

blacky365 wrote:If he were scum he would not want to leave it this long and risk being modkilled. I don’t know the other afk but my thought process is the same soI think it’s highly unlikely to be scum.

But if he's Town he would have no problem being modkilled?

blacky365 wrote:Also, pika mentioned before about taking a player to L-1... what is the point? There are no power roles here so what do you expect them to say?
Pikanchion wrote:If you want to maximise scumhunting the optimal strategy is to get somebody (other than either of the missing players) to L-1 before those last two players post or are replaced and demand that in their first post the joining player throws the hammer, killing both the final missing player and the player chosen by the Town.

The person being lynched isn't expected to say anything, this is so the first of the two afk players to post can lynch in their first post, killing the other afk player and the lynchee immediately. Otherwise we run the risk of the second afk player also posting which would be ~6% worse for our chances of winning.
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