Conquer Club

The Thing TOWN WINS!

Housing completed games. Come take a walk through a history of suspicion!

Moderator: Community Team

Forum rules
Please read the Community Guidelines before posting.

Re: The Thing Day 2

Postby Extreme Ways on Sat Dec 02, 2023 2:38 pm

degaston wrote:
Extreme Ways wrote:
degaston wrote:
Ragian wrote:unvote

@strike, who are you vigging tonight?


Unvote

This makes it sound like you think strike is our vig. Was that intentional?

My read on it was that regardless of whether Rag thought it was intentional, this makes it so that everyone can see strike with a clean sheet tomorrow given the likeliness of him being recruiter. It already was a bit high, now it's through the moon.

It could have just been a poor choice of words by Rag. strike didn't react to the word choice, and seemed to treat it as asking for his preference, not his action. I'm not sure why you think this changes the likelyhood of strike being recruiter. The only thing we do know is that Rag was not recruited.

*recruited.

Unfortunate typo.
TOFU, ex-REP, ex-VDLL, ex-KoRT.
User avatar
General Extreme Ways
 
Posts: 1723
Joined: Sun Nov 19, 2006 10:02 am
2

Re: The Thing Day 2

Postby SoN!c on Sat Dec 02, 2023 2:52 pm

So Ragian thinks Strike is the vig. Or he just was asking who Strike would vig..it sounds like Ragian to ask it like that...

I think the Vig is somebody else but sure Strike could be the Vig.. Anyways, im sure Ragian was just asking who Strike would vig (as in who would be his choice) because Ragian is still searching. Just dont be late for the deadline. Consider 12 hours in advance to vote is minimum because me and Deg are following

And EW saying "recruiter" was ment to be posted as "recruited" i say.

As in "Strike (as vig) getting the n1 spot to be recruited"

1 letter difference. Total different meaning..

Fp
Image
User avatar
Major SoN!c
 
Posts: 446
Joined: Tue May 11, 2021 10:23 am
Location: At the feast of Crispian.

Re: The Thing Day 2

Postby strike wolf on Sat Dec 02, 2023 3:06 pm

Extreme Ways wrote:
degaston wrote:
Ragian wrote:unvote

@strike, who are you vigging tonight?


Unvote

This makes it sound like you think strike is our vig. Was that intentional?

My read on it was that regardless of whether Rag thought it was intentional, this makes it so that everyone can see strike with a clean sheet tomorrow given the likeliness of him being recruiter. It already was a bit high, now it's through the moon.


What?
Extreme Ways wrote:
degaston wrote:
Extreme Ways wrote:
degaston wrote:
Ragian wrote:unvote

@strike, who are you vigging tonight?


Unvote

This makes it sound like you think strike is our vig. Was that intentional?

My read on it was that regardless of whether Rag thought it was intentional, this makes it so that everyone can see strike with a clean sheet tomorrow given the likeliness of him being recruiter. It already was a bit high, now it's through the moon.

It could have just been a poor choice of words by Rag. strike didn't react to the word choice, and seemed to treat it as asking for his preference, not his action. I'm not sure why you think this changes the likelyhood of strike being recruiter. The only thing we do know is that Rag was not recruited.

*recruited.

Unfortunate typo.


Oh. The chances of me being recruited is through the moon. That makes more sense. Honestly, I think me, you, Ragian and Deg are the shortlist to be recruited barring you and/or deg already being cult.
Iliad wrote:The upside of calling everyone scum and making 1000 predictions is that statistically you should get a few right.


Strike wolf need brain for smart making.
User avatar
Cadet strike wolf
 
Posts: 8343
Joined: Fri May 19, 2006 11:03 pm
Location: Sandy Springs, GA (just north of Atlanta)

Re: The Thing Day 2

Postby SoN!c on Sat Dec 02, 2023 3:14 pm

Well, i never wanted to bring the vig up because although im not an expert on mafia i feel like town should never want to search for the Vig.

But the truth is, the only thing im afraid for, is Traf being the Vig.

That is the only reason that can explain Traf not acting like town and wanting to hide his identity.

There i said it. Now Traf can respond in 20 minutes, like clockwork,.. and say "don't lynch me, im the Vig".

But im 99% sure Traf would not have vigged Pixar.???
Image
User avatar
Major SoN!c
 
Posts: 446
Joined: Tue May 11, 2021 10:23 am
Location: At the feast of Crispian.

Re: The Thing Day 2

Postby Extreme Ways on Sat Dec 02, 2023 3:21 pm

SoN!c wrote:Well, i never wanted to bring the vig up because although im not an expert on mafia i feel like town should never want to search for the Vig.

But the truth is, the only thing im afraid for, is Traf being the Vig.

That is the only reason that can explain Traf not acting like town and wanting to hide his identity.

There i said it. Now Traf can respond in 20 minutes, like clockwork,.. and say "don't lynch me, im the Vig".

But im 99% sure Traf would not have vigged Pixar.???

show
TOFU, ex-REP, ex-VDLL, ex-KoRT.
User avatar
General Extreme Ways
 
Posts: 1723
Joined: Sun Nov 19, 2006 10:02 am
2

Re: The Thing Day 2

Postby SoN!c on Sat Dec 02, 2023 3:25 pm

Extreme Ways wrote:
SoN!c wrote:Well, i never wanted to bring the vig up because although im not an expert on mafia i feel like town should never want to search for the Vig.

But the truth is, the only thing im afraid for, is Traf being the Vig.

That is the only reason that can explain Traf not acting like town and wanting to hide his identity.

There i said it. Now Traf can respond in 20 minutes, like clockwork,.. and say "don't lynch me, im the Vig".

But im 99% sure Traf would not have vigged Pixar.???

show


No the honest truth
Image
User avatar
Major SoN!c
 
Posts: 446
Joined: Tue May 11, 2021 10:23 am
Location: At the feast of Crispian.

Re: The Thing Day 2

Postby degaston on Sat Dec 02, 2023 3:27 pm

Extreme Ways wrote:
SoN!c wrote:Well, i never wanted to bring the vig up because although im not an expert on mafia i feel like town should never want to search for the Vig.

But the truth is, the only thing im afraid for, is Traf being the Vig.

That is the only reason that can explain Traf not acting like town and wanting to hide his identity.

There i said it. Now Traf can respond in 20 minutes, like clockwork,.. and say "don't lynch me, im the Vig".

But im 99% sure Traf would not have vigged Pixar.???


spoiler
is this another bait post?
/spoiler

Well, he is a master baiter! :lol:
User avatar
Brigadier degaston
 
Posts: 989
Joined: Fri Apr 01, 2011 10:12 am

Re: The Thing Day 2

Postby SoN!c on Sat Dec 02, 2023 3:34 pm

degaston wrote:
Extreme Ways wrote:
SoN!c wrote:Well, i never wanted to bring the vig up because although im not an expert on mafia i feel like town should never want to search for the Vig.

But the truth is, the only thing im afraid for, is Traf being the Vig.

That is the only reason that can explain Traf not acting like town and wanting to hide his identity.

There i said it. Now Traf can respond in 20 minutes, like clockwork,.. and say "don't lynch me, im the Vig".

But im 99% sure Traf would not have vigged Pixar.???


spoiler
is this another bait post?
/spoiler

Well, he is a master baiter! :lol:


I hope your not saying this with a heavy UK accent ;-)
Image
User avatar
Major SoN!c
 
Posts: 446
Joined: Tue May 11, 2021 10:23 am
Location: At the feast of Crispian.

Re: The Thing Day 2

Postby TrafalgarLaw01 on Sat Dec 02, 2023 3:37 pm

SoN!c wrote:Well, i never wanted to bring the vig up because although im not an expert on mafia i feel like town should never want to search for the Vig.

But the truth is, the only thing im afraid for, is Traf being the Vig.

That is the only reason that can explain Traf not acting like town and wanting to hide his identity.

There i said it. Now Traf can respond in 20 minutes, like clockwork,.. and say "don't lynch me, im the Vig".

But im 99% sure Traf would not have vigged Pixar.???


Sure I am the vig. Oh no wait i felt in another trap.

You are making even less sense now.

Was this 20 mins, right?
User avatar
General TrafalgarLaw01
 
Posts: 346
Joined: Tue Aug 20, 2013 5:43 pm
Location: Buenos Aires
324

Re: The Thing Day 2

Postby TrafalgarLaw01 on Sat Dec 02, 2023 3:38 pm

Just in Case anyone gets confused. Or Sonic twist whatever I said again.

I am not vig. I have said twice I am vanilla town - gary
User avatar
General TrafalgarLaw01
 
Posts: 346
Joined: Tue Aug 20, 2013 5:43 pm
Location: Buenos Aires
324

Re: The Thing Day 2

Postby SoN!c on Sat Dec 02, 2023 3:42 pm

Well i knew i get the 20 min part right ;-)

And if you said yes "im the vig" then the real vig - if still in play ofcourse - would know your lying being the Thing right..


But he said no. Like i said, the honest truth...too easy for bait..
Image
User avatar
Major SoN!c
 
Posts: 446
Joined: Tue May 11, 2021 10:23 am
Location: At the feast of Crispian.

Re: The Thing Day 2

Postby TrafalgarLaw01 on Sat Dec 02, 2023 3:46 pm

Honestly, this is how we should play it.

We lynch but no vig today.

I Still believe we lynch sonic, even if for some reason he flips town not helping town either.

Lets assume Sonic flips town, if not even better but worst case scenario to consider.

D3
Townies 5 - Bad guys 3

Fp by sonic but doesnt even matter

We BT strike or EW. I guess people would like to BT me fine with it as well.

But before the BT we make a massive claim of names and roles. And the vig should claim. So we can have a healthier debate.
There is chance vig is converted N2, but if we get the claim we know is not the recruiter.

So we have Deg, Rag, the Vig and BT as no recruiter - we lynch one of the remaining if the BT comes negative. We need to lynch abad guy, better case scenario the recruiter.

N3 its likely vig gets converted -

D4

4 townies - 3 Bad Guys.

But we now have 4 people plus the BT of this day as certain not recruiter. 50% chance to git the Thing.
User avatar
General TrafalgarLaw01
 
Posts: 346
Joined: Tue Aug 20, 2013 5:43 pm
Location: Buenos Aires
324

Re: The Thing Day 2

Postby SoN!c on Sat Dec 02, 2023 3:52 pm

Cmon Traf. If people eat this Thing pudding you serve them then you deserve to win.

Lynch me, no vig kill, BT not on you and the vig has to expose himself.. :lol:

What kind of mushrooms did you put in that Puddhing?
Image
User avatar
Major SoN!c
 
Posts: 446
Joined: Tue May 11, 2021 10:23 am
Location: At the feast of Crispian.

Re: The Thing Day 2

Postby SoN!c on Sat Dec 02, 2023 3:56 pm

TrafalgarLaw01 wrote:Honestly, this is how we should play it.

We lynch but no vig today.

I Still believe we lynch sonic, even if for some reason he flips town not helping town either.

Lets assume Sonic flips town, if not even better but worst case scenario to consider.

D3
Townies 5 - Bad guys 3

Fp by sonic but doesnt even matter

We BT strike or EW. I guess people would like to BT me fine with it as well.

But before the BT we make a massive claim of names and roles. And the vig should claim. So we can have a healthier debate.
There is chance vig is converted N2, but if we get the claim we know is not the recruiter.

So we have Deg, Rag, the Vig and BT as no recruiter - we lynch one of the remaining if the BT comes negative. We need to lynch abad guy, better case scenario the recruiter.

N3 its likely vig gets converted -

D4

4 townies - 3 Bad Guys.

But we now have 4 people plus the BT of this day as certain not recruiter. 50% chance to git the Thing.



Sorry, i have to quote this. Too funny to read.

D4

4 townies - 3 Bad Guys


3 bad guys on D4 huh
Image
User avatar
Major SoN!c
 
Posts: 446
Joined: Tue May 11, 2021 10:23 am
Location: At the feast of Crispian.

Re: The Thing Day 2

Postby Extreme Ways on Sat Dec 02, 2023 5:08 pm

TrafalgarLaw01 wrote:Honestly, this is how we should play it.

We lynch but no vig today.

I Still believe we lynch sonic, even if for some reason he flips town not helping town either.

Lets assume Sonic flips town, if not even better but worst case scenario to consider.

D3
Townies 5 - Bad guys 3

Fp by sonic but doesnt even matter

We BT strike or EW. I guess people would like to BT me fine with it as well.

But before the BT we make a massive claim of names and roles. And the vig should claim. So we can have a healthier debate.
There is chance vig is converted N2, but if we get the claim we know is not the recruiter.

So we have Deg, Rag, the Vig and BT as no recruiter - we lynch one of the remaining if the BT comes negative. We need to lynch abad guy, better case scenario the recruiter.

N3 its likely vig gets converted -

D4

4 townies - 3 Bad Guys.

But we now have 4 people plus the BT of this day as certain not recruiter. 50% chance to git the Thing.

if vig is recruited, the recruiter can claim vig.
TOFU, ex-REP, ex-VDLL, ex-KoRT.
User avatar
General Extreme Ways
 
Posts: 1723
Joined: Sun Nov 19, 2006 10:02 am
2

Re: The Thing Day 2

Postby TrafalgarLaw01 on Sat Dec 02, 2023 5:21 pm

Extreme Ways wrote:
TrafalgarLaw01 wrote:Honestly, this is how we should play it.

We lynch but no vig today.

I Still believe we lynch sonic, even if for some reason he flips town not helping town either.

Lets assume Sonic flips town, if not even better but worst case scenario to consider.

D3
Townies 5 - Bad guys 3

Fp by sonic but doesnt even matter

We BT strike or EW. I guess people would like to BT me fine with it as well.

But before the BT we make a massive claim of names and roles. And the vig should claim. So we can have a healthier debate.
There is chance vig is converted N2, but if we get the claim we know is not the recruiter.

So we have Deg, Rag, the Vig and BT as no recruiter - we lynch one of the remaining if the BT comes negative. We need to lynch abad guy, better case scenario the recruiter.

N3 its likely vig gets converted -

D4

4 townies - 3 Bad Guys.

But we now have 4 people plus the BT of this day as certain not recruiter. 50% chance to git the Thing.

if vig is recruited, the recruiter can claim vig.


Ugh this one is really good point, did not thought about it. You earned a lot of townie points in my mind
User avatar
General TrafalgarLaw01
 
Posts: 346
Joined: Tue Aug 20, 2013 5:43 pm
Location: Buenos Aires
324

Re: The Thing Day 2

Postby TrafalgarLaw01 on Sat Dec 02, 2023 5:25 pm

SoN!c wrote:
D4

4 townies - 3 Bad Guys


3 bad guys on D4 huh


I get it. U cant read. Please come with helpull posts like EW or stop flooding the forum.
User avatar
General TrafalgarLaw01
 
Posts: 346
Joined: Tue Aug 20, 2013 5:43 pm
Location: Buenos Aires
324

Re: The Thing Day 2

Postby SoN!c on Sat Dec 02, 2023 10:50 pm

TrafalgarLaw01 wrote:
SoN!c wrote:
D4

4 townies - 3 Bad Guys


3 bad guys on D4 huh


I get it. U cant read. Please come with helpull posts like EW or stop flooding the forum.


You know im town. So lynching me and no vig means 5 townies needing 5 votes (while 3 things are stearing them to BT EW or Strike).

If even 1 townie follows the wrong one The Thing and his 2 recruits have won the game..

And you say the vig needs to claim tomorrow... "a massive claim just before BT" well then one of the recruits just need to counterclaim and that is all... because then you have 2 players claiming the same role so 1 is lying.. and the false one to claim vig will be the N2 recruit...Strike or EW or Deg / Ragian for example (recruited tonight for exactly that reason)...that will confuse town so hard they wanna resolve it so the recruiter is safe..while the recruiter will know who to convert..(if his 2 recruits are not already the vig that is...) and even when town lynches the false vig the Thing will win. 2 recruits on D3 so 1 is expendable. A pawn offering..

This plan can only lead to town defeat. Vig claim tomorrow is getting a recruit counterclaim 100% with town win chance 0%

We need to focus on the recruiter. Not the recruits.
Image
User avatar
Major SoN!c
 
Posts: 446
Joined: Tue May 11, 2021 10:23 am
Location: At the feast of Crispian.

Re: The Thing Day 2

Postby Ragian on Sun Dec 03, 2023 3:36 am

@Traf, who is helping town? Who are your strongest town reads?
Image
User avatar
Captain Ragian
 
Posts: 120
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 7:39 am

Re: The Thing Day 2

Postby Votanic on Sun Dec 03, 2023 3:45 am

Just when I thought it couldn't get worse...

Now both Sonic and Traf are coming up with complicated hypothetical multi-day situations full of best-actions based on assumptions that I don't really follow...

(Though of course to some players these would not be assumptions... but scum-known facts.)
User avatar
Lieutenant Votanic
 
Posts: 937
Joined: Thu Aug 24, 2023 12:48 pm

Re: The Thing Day 2

Postby TrafalgarLaw01 on Sun Dec 03, 2023 5:58 am

Ragian wrote:@Traf, who is helping town? Who are your strongest town reads?


Town
Me and you

Town vives.
Deg, EW and Vot

Who is helping town? Me, you and EW trying to actually solve the situation. Maybe the others too but might be overwhelmed by the ammount of pages
User avatar
General TrafalgarLaw01
 
Posts: 346
Joined: Tue Aug 20, 2013 5:43 pm
Location: Buenos Aires
324

Re: The Thing Day 2

Postby TrafalgarLaw01 on Sun Dec 03, 2023 6:01 am

SoN!c wrote:
TrafalgarLaw01 wrote:
SoN!c wrote:
D4

4 townies - 3 Bad Guys


3 bad guys on D4 huh


I get it. U cant read. Please come with helpull posts like EW or stop flooding the forum.


You know im town. So lynching me and no vig means 5 townies needing 5 votes (while 3 things are stearing them to BT EW or Strike).

If even 1 townie follows the wrong one The Thing and his 2 recruits have won the game..

And you say the vig needs to claim tomorrow... "a massive claim just before BT" well then one of the recruits just need to counterclaim and that is all... because then you have 2 players claiming the same role so 1 is lying.. and the false one to claim vig will be the N2 recruit...Strike or EW or Deg / Ragian for example (recruited tonight for exactly that reason)...that will confuse town so hard they wanna resolve it so the recruiter is safe..while the recruiter will know who to convert..(if his 2 recruits are not already the vig that is...) and even when town lynches the false vig the Thing will win. 2 recruits on D3 so 1 is expendable. A pawn offering..

This plan can only lead to town defeat. Vig claim tomorrow is getting a recruit counterclaim 100% with town win chance 0%

We need to focus on the recruiter. Not the recruits.


Thtas the scenario if u lynch me 5v3.

And if u are town then even worse with no only the thing stirring town.

Actually having two people claiming the same I think its not bad imo, Better a 1 in 2 chances than a 3 in 8 or 3 in 7
User avatar
General TrafalgarLaw01
 
Posts: 346
Joined: Tue Aug 20, 2013 5:43 pm
Location: Buenos Aires
324

Re: The Thing Day 2

Postby Ragian on Sun Dec 03, 2023 2:47 pm

@Traf, what are your thoughts on Strike? (And how exactly has Vot been helpful?)
Image
User avatar
Captain Ragian
 
Posts: 120
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 7:39 am

Re: The Thing Day 2

Postby TrafalgarLaw01 on Sun Dec 03, 2023 3:00 pm

Ragian wrote:@Traf, what are your thoughts on Strike? (And how exactly has Vot been helpful?)


I find it really hard to trust strike at the moment.

he is so full on the Lynch and vig strat and hasn't even consider the scenario where that move could get kill 2 townies. (hopefully not but still should be considered).

Forcing a lynch or lose situation to hit the Recruiter on D3, hitting any other character is game over.

I' saidthe ones being helpfull trying to figure things out and finding things are Me, you and EW. I said vot seems townier to me than the others. I think trying to look into flavor of the games does not make him scum. Also he had the chance to hammer me and didn't.
User avatar
General TrafalgarLaw01
 
Posts: 346
Joined: Tue Aug 20, 2013 5:43 pm
Location: Buenos Aires
324

Re: The Thing Day 2

Postby strike wolf on Sun Dec 03, 2023 5:40 pm

We're basically at Lylo regardless tomorrow. 5v3. Mislynch 4 v. 3. Recruitment 3 v 4. Or no lynch 5 v.3. Then recruitment 4 v. 4. So we'd have to rely on Vig to kill cult N3 to stand a chance and each night is one more night where the vig may have been recruited. Based on multiple of you iclaiming when the only person here guaranteed to be who they said they are being MacReady our vig, the recruiter likely has a fairly short list of who could be vig already. For what its worth, I did try to say D1 that giving out claims in this game was useless and potentially bad for town but point is, I don't like our odds of the vig being town after N2. So yes, I'm in favor of using our vig kill while I still believe we have it to limit the numbers and give ourselves the better odds at picking out the cult.

I have 3 people who I can confidently say are not the recruiter. Myself, Dega and Ragian. Using our 4 remaining shots (lynch, vig, BT, Lynch) on 6 remaining people gives us a 2 in 3 chance of hitting the recruiter along the line + chance vig will still be town to hit them N3. From Ragian and Degas perspective it would be a 4 in 7 chance. I further commented on who I felt were highest on my list to increase those chances. In hindsight, it may have been a mistake to specify who should be BTed tomorrow and if you look back, you will see that I've backed off that position some but I will stick to the rest.
Iliad wrote:The upside of calling everyone scum and making 1000 predictions is that statistically you should get a few right.


Strike wolf need brain for smart making.
User avatar
Cadet strike wolf
 
Posts: 8343
Joined: Fri May 19, 2006 11:03 pm
Location: Sandy Springs, GA (just north of Atlanta)

PreviousNext

Return to Mafia Archives

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users