by strike wolf on Sun Dec 03, 2023 5:40 pm
We're basically at Lylo regardless tomorrow. 5v3. Mislynch 4 v. 3. Recruitment 3 v 4. Or no lynch 5 v.3. Then recruitment 4 v. 4. So we'd have to rely on Vig to kill cult N3 to stand a chance and each night is one more night where the vig may have been recruited. Based on multiple of you iclaiming when the only person here guaranteed to be who they said they are being MacReady our vig, the recruiter likely has a fairly short list of who could be vig already. For what its worth, I did try to say D1 that giving out claims in this game was useless and potentially bad for town but point is, I don't like our odds of the vig being town after N2. So yes, I'm in favor of using our vig kill while I still believe we have it to limit the numbers and give ourselves the better odds at picking out the cult.
I have 3 people who I can confidently say are not the recruiter. Myself, Dega and Ragian. Using our 4 remaining shots (lynch, vig, BT, Lynch) on 6 remaining people gives us a 2 in 3 chance of hitting the recruiter along the line + chance vig will still be town to hit them N3. From Ragian and Degas perspective it would be a 4 in 7 chance. I further commented on who I felt were highest on my list to increase those chances. In hindsight, it may have been a mistake to specify who should be BTed tomorrow and if you look back, you will see that I've backed off that position some but I will stick to the rest.
Iliad wrote:The upside of calling everyone scum and making 1000 predictions is that statistically you should get a few right.
Strike wolf need brain for smart making.