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Re: The Thing Day 2

Postby TrafalgarLaw01 on Thu Dec 07, 2023 7:56 am

Extreme Ways wrote:
TrafalgarLaw01 wrote:
Extreme Ways wrote:On Traf's side too. When you spend so much energy on defending yourself and are finally considered towny by some, why stop contributing?


Cause I said it was my last post for D2. But I also said I will answer questions if I don't find them stupid. So yeah I made my analysis have contributed way more than most here. But somehow people still say I am silent.

Btw. I do think looking at the BT votes is a good idea Raf

I figured it was your last post addressing accusations/fingerpointing toward you. I assume your vote is staying where it is, then?


I can still switch my vote, but only to Charle, Swang or Strike.

Reasons on vote for SoNic - I do think there was a slight change in his D1 to d2 accusations which could mean converted. But also even if town I dont find he is being really useful.
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Re: The Thing Day 2

Postby TrafalgarLaw01 on Thu Dec 07, 2023 11:22 am

Also you want to have some extra info for D3

People that voted:

Traf Lynch that put it at L-1: Swang, Charle, Ragian and Sonic
Ragian BT: Swang, Charle, EW, Votanic and Sonic
Degaston BT: Ragian, Strike, EW, Vot and Charle

I'm pretty sure a scum voted at least in 2 of those wagons. Not Ragian as he is cleared. Also look at Charle voting all 3. Not contributing but somehow calling me silent.
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Re: The Thing Day 2

Postby Ragian on Thu Dec 07, 2023 3:37 pm

WHy aren't you voting Charle, then?
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Re: The Thing Day 2

Postby Votanic on Thu Dec 07, 2023 4:44 pm

TrafalgarLaw01 wrote:Also you want to have some extra info for D3

People that voted:

Traf Lynch that put it at L-1: Swang, Charle, Ragian and Sonic
Ragian BT: Swang, Charle, EW, Votanic and Sonic
Degaston BT: Ragian, Strike, EW, Vot and Charle

I'm pretty sure a scum voted at least in 2 of those wagons. Not Ragian as he is cleared. Also look at Charle voting all 3. Not contributing but somehow calling me silent.


TrafalgarLaw01 wrote:Btw. I do think looking at the BT votes is a good idea Raf

Seriously, what is the logic behind this analysis?
If one is town, one's raison d'etre is to find ot who is scum... or, by process of elimination, who is town.
Of the two options available this game, BT is the 'kinder, gentler' choice ...albeit an impermenent one.

I get that there is only one BT a day and it shouldn't be wasted... but having the suspect turn out to be town does not automatically mean it was wasted.
Dega's vote was largely a 'randwagon', but that was the vibe Day 1 (Day 2 also, but that vibe is now buried underneath an immense mountain of forum-post verbage.)
Ragian's BT was significantly less random, because he wasn't making sense (Though of course, that should inspire us all to ask: "Then why not Sonic???")

On Day 1, I naively thought that our policy should be to never lynch without a positive BT first... but now, especially as I write this, I'm coming to believe that BTs are largely a sideshow distraction... Town might be better off with just two lynches. (Yes, I suppose the vig is sort-of a second lynch)

Ragian wrote:To be honest, I was baiting

btw, Rag, this would make such a great sig line for you. Seriously consider it.
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Re: The Thing Day 2

Postby TrafalgarLaw01 on Thu Dec 07, 2023 4:52 pm

Ragian wrote:WHy aren't you voting Charle, then?


I have point my finger at Charle more than once at this point. But not really any traction there even was defended by strike at first but he backed in that. So Sonic is the closer to not helping town I have right now. But as said I'm more than willing to vote for Charle

FP by Votanic

So here is my answer to that? Why is it worth the analysis - The thing and later on the recruits dont want to be tested. So getting test out of the way will move the game forward for them. I Agree the reasons for BT both Deg and Rag were there, but still Scum will use those to jump on board.

Another thing to say of the use of BT - was not sure to comment this as The bad guys might use it in their favor, but seeing as I wont make it that far - Inc ase people go by my plan of no Vig, and we get to D4 with 4v3 we want to get a negative Bt as positive Bt wont wnsure its the thing as it could be a recruit. so 1 in 2 to get the thing.

In case people go for the imo worse move of vig lynch and we kill 2 townies. We should also look for a negative BT on D3 we will only have 1 in 4 but more likely to get the Thing imo.

But I really see this suboptimal and really no one has pointed a strong point in favor of vig lynch other than "we might be lucky"
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Re: The Thing Day 2

Postby Extreme Ways on Thu Dec 07, 2023 6:18 pm

The thing about scum being on BTs/lynches kinda goes both ways. If the BT is between townie 1 and townie 2, they might just as well decide not to vote at all to 'preserve a clean slate'.

Taking a normal mafia game as example, if Traf gets 4 votes and Charle gets 5, Scum Sonic might be content to vote for fellow scum Swang - if Charle is scum though, Sonic is way more likely to vote Traf. This is with end-of-day lynch without majority btw.

So we can also argue the opposite, who has been too afraid to make a stand by means of voting? It's a bit of WIFOM for me but if you say a lot but never put your money where your mouth is, it adds up. So what is scummier, being wrong about your votes, or not having voted at all?

Also I was trying to understand Traf's play as I was questionig it and it's pretty bigbrain if I do understand it correctly.

Vote Charle
I'm putting a placeholder vote in. I want to vote Sonic, Swang, or Charle. Sonic is probably not happening and Swang is afk - I dont like voting AFKs. Though I'll vote with Ragian, this is where my mind is atm.
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Re: The Thing Day 2

Postby TrafalgarLaw01 on Thu Dec 07, 2023 6:26 pm

Extreme Ways wrote:
So we can also argue the opposite, who has been too afraid to make a stand by means of voting? It's a bit of WIFOM for me but if you say a lot but never put your money where your mouth is, it adds up. So what is scummier, being wrong about your votes, or not having voted at all?


Fair enough

Unvote Vote Charle
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Re: The Thing Day 2

Postby strike wolf on Thu Dec 07, 2023 6:45 pm

Here's why I was asking Charle about the vig point because Charle has made it clear he's interested in the vig. On my first read through. I thought he was the vig and his little insinuation about maybe Traf being the vig was his way of trying to catch Traf in a trap. He's since posted enough about the vig shot and in general, to be fairly sure he isn't the vig
The Thing about that other post is that he posted it before DDS confirmed that the vig would lose his ability if recruited and Charle phrased it as a loss of ability. Not as a 1 shot ability which suggests that he may have asked DDS this very question and knew this. Cult recruiter and another power role would be the ones most likely to do this and I'm not convinced we have other power roles. Plus, if this is true then he asked but didn't Share the info.

It's a bit on the speculative side but Vote Charle

Lol. I went away for a few hours with this post half finished and now others are voting Charle.
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Re: The Thing Day 2

Postby strike wolf on Thu Dec 07, 2023 6:47 pm

That said, also feel like FOSing Vot for even suggesting not using the BT.
Iliad wrote:The upside of calling everyone scum and making 1000 predictions is that statistically you should get a few right.


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Re: The Thing Day 2

Postby Votanic on Thu Dec 07, 2023 7:36 pm

strike wolf wrote:That said, also feel like FOSing Vot for even suggesting not using the BT.

Don't worry, strike. I'd be as shocked as anyone if we didn't BT every chance we could... but as we do so, let's remember its limitations, at least these three main ones.

1. We can't BT everybody before lynching and still win the game... so at least some of those kills are going to have to be blind.
2. A confirmed townie, is no less ignorant, confused, or predjuced than any other townie. A negative BT does not make one a cop.
3. A BT town confirmation is a temporary thing... and it might just make the tested one a target for the Thing that night.
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Re: The Thing Day 2

Postby SoN!c on Fri Dec 08, 2023 12:58 am

TrafalgarLaw01 wrote:
Extreme Ways wrote:
TrafalgarLaw01 wrote:
Extreme Ways wrote:On Traf's side too. When you spend so much energy on defending yourself and are finally considered towny by some, why stop contributing?


Cause I said it was my last post for D2. But I also said I will answer questions if I don't find them stupid. So yeah I made my analysis have contributed way more than most here. But somehow people still say I am silent.

Btw. I do think looking at the BT votes is a good idea Raf

I figured it was your last post addressing accusations/fingerpointing toward you. I assume your vote is staying where it is, then?


I can still switch my vote, but only to Charle, Swang or Strike.

Reasons on vote for SoNic - I do think there was a slight change in his D1 to d2 accusations which could mean converted. But also even if town I dont find he is being really useful.


Consider Traf is the Thing and EW his recruit (or somebody else but please keep in mind there is a recruit helping). Traf posted this just before last day of deadline started. If you read it he is almost admitting he knows im town. Hence the second post right after that to embellish his "town" alliance.

And even so he already posted i was town D1 so he can't sell this vote on me any other way then "a possible recruit D2". But this is not "town Traf" (as "town Traf"; would he be looking for the recruit, not The Thing??)..

Look there is 1 Thing and 1 recruit. And no i do not agree The Thing was on a bandwagon on D1 so saying Charle was on "the bandwagon to BT Dega", = well more proof he is town then he is the Thing. Traf is selling this as classic mafia game (there is gonna be scum on the bandwagon) but it's cult... You have to look at the people who were not on D1 votes is my idea. The Thing wanting to hide and not draw attention..

So "Degaston BT: Ragian, Strike, EW, Vot and Charle" are town (at least on D1) to me
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Re: The Thing Day 2

Postby Charle on Fri Dec 08, 2023 2:12 am

Guys, you were all wrong and this is going south for town. I will probably get converted tonight.

Not going to say more, but I am Mac and it is better for Town to know this before I get lynched. Now do with this what you think is best.

Reasons for the Pixar burn was:
I needed to get the message out that we have a Vig. There were no real clues at end of day 1. Pixar was busy in real life, did not contribute much and as town we needed votes and activity.

I am still very convinced that Traf is playing this brilliant, I think he waited for this post and knew I was vig, just needed the confirmation. I must say, I am disappointed in Strike's comments about me not being the Vig. I deliberately posted a few times as if I do not know any of the Vig's powers to try and keep the attention away from me.

So, you can lynch me and loose my power tonight, or we can use it one more time as the night actions happens first.

So, you can add me at this stage as a confirmed townie, probably will be converted tonight but in the same boat as Deg and Ragian. This makes the sums looks better and closer to getting the Thing. We need the Vig kill tonight to get the numbers down, and Traf's reasoning not to do so is very scummy to me.

I will vote what town decides, and please, if I still live, let's decide on the vig kill tonight. Time is running out though.
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Re: The Thing Day 2

Postby strike wolf on Fri Dec 08, 2023 2:41 am

Unvote He's either the Vig, will be killed tonight or the vig has been converted. Should have stuck to my first instinct that he was. I may have also been getting a bit anxious to push a lynch through as I didn't want today to end in a no lynch. Vig if you are anyone else and Charle is bluffing dont counter claim

Part of my turn around was that I didn't go out of my way to deny being the vig when others seemed to hint around it but you didn't seem to get suspicious of that so I thought you were honestly buying into the idea that I could be the vig. Truth is I just didn't deny it because it didn't seem to be in towns interest for me to spell out that I wasn't and limit the scope for cult.

Heres my follow up suggestion then. We no lynch today and Vig traf. Unless Charle isn't the vig then the vig hits Charle. If there's no vig then we have to assume the vig was recruited N1. Regardless in this scenario, we do not use the BT on charle but someone else and with luck, we might ID two cult in one day.
Iliad wrote:The upside of calling everyone scum and making 1000 predictions is that statistically you should get a few right.


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Re: The Thing Day 2

Postby strike wolf on Fri Dec 08, 2023 2:43 am

Vote No Lynch
Iliad wrote:The upside of calling everyone scum and making 1000 predictions is that statistically you should get a few right.


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Re: The Thing Day 2

Postby Charle on Fri Dec 08, 2023 3:01 am

Strike, I must say, I really liked your play to let people know that you are the Vig, only you and I knew that you weren't.

Anyway, we have the following players left:
Pixar - Not thing
Dega - Not thing
Ragian - Not thing
Charle - Not thing
Strike
Traf
Sonic
EW
Swang
Votan

If we lynch and vig today and missed the Thing, we will have 4 players left with 2 more shots (BT and lynch) plus a possible Vig Night 3 (we do not know).

If we do not lynch, we will have 5 players left with 2 or 3 more shots, therefore the chances to hit the Thing is better if we lynch today, in fact, we HAVE to lynch to get the numbers closer to the Thing.
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Re: The Thing Day 2

Postby SoN!c on Fri Dec 08, 2023 4:12 am

strike wolf wrote:Unvote He's either the Vig, will be killed tonight or the vig has been converted. Should have stuck to my first instinct that he was. I may have also been getting a bit anxious to push a lynch through as I didn't want today to end in a no lynch. Vig if you are anyone else and Charle is bluffing dont counter claim

Part of my turn around was that I didn't go out of my way to deny being the vig when others seemed to hint around it but you didn't seem to get suspicious of that so I thought you were honestly buying into the idea that I could be the vig. Truth is I just didn't deny it because it didn't seem to be in towns interest for me to spell out that I wasn't and limit the scope for cult.

Heres my follow up suggestion then. We no lynch today and Vig traf. Unless Charle isn't the vig then the vig hits Charle. If there's no vig then we have to assume the vig was recruited N1. Regardless in this scenario, we do not use the BT on charle but someone else and with luck, we might ID two cult in one day.



I love this part "Vig traf. Unless Charle isn't the vig then the vig hits Charle."

and this too: Vig if you are anyone else and Charle is bluffing dont counter claim (but Vig Charle)

Now i can't wait to hear the next escape plan from The Thing and his little helper recruit..
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Re: The Thing Day 2

Postby Ragian on Fri Dec 08, 2023 5:53 am

Uhh, I was totally under the assumption that Strike was the vig based on this from D1:

strike wolf wrote:Hello, I look forward to flaming up some aliens with you all.


I totally think that Charle is the vig, but this game has made me so paranoid that I fear that Strike is the vig who got converted last night, so when nothing happens to Charle and Traf, Charle gets it tomorrow. But no, that doesn't make sense, does it?

@Strike, why not lynch?
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Re: The Thing Day 2

Postby Extreme Ways on Fri Dec 08, 2023 7:18 am

Unvote

Not voting anyone else yet at this point because I dont want to panicvote...
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Re: The Thing Day 2

Postby TrafalgarLaw01 on Fri Dec 08, 2023 7:34 am

unvote

With no counterclaims. I take you are mac.

Charle I do insist no more vig. Unless there is no lynch (but I trust more lynches than a vig move as more people are involved). Please read my plan tell me any doubts you have about it. And what you think of possible scenarios
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Re: The Thing Day 2

Postby TrafalgarLaw01 on Fri Dec 08, 2023 7:38 am

Actually there could be a great way to prove a lot of things.

If we dont lynch but we vig.

1. We confirm Mac was still town D2 and with no counterclaims that Charles is Mac.

2. With the BT on D3 we have Deg, Rag, Charle and D3BTed as not the Thing. We need to get one bad guy from the other 4.

D4 witha negative BT we have the previous 4 plus the BTed as not the thing 1 in 2 to get it.
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Re: The Thing Day 2

Postby strike wolf on Fri Dec 08, 2023 7:48 am

Ragian wrote:Uhh, I was totally under the assumption that Strike was the vig based on this from D1:

strike wolf wrote:Hello, I look forward to flaming up some aliens with you all.


I totally think that Charle is the vig, but this game has made me so paranoid that I fear that Strike is the vig who got converted last night, so when nothing happens to Charle and Traf, Charle gets it tomorrow. But no, that doesn't make sense, does it?

@Strike, why not lynch?


To be fair, I still could be the vig and either now recruited to protect charle or just aware that I can kill him tonight and not have to worry about him either way. After all, in the Counterclaim scenario, Charle is definitely more likely the recruit then the recruiter.

I was sleepy and I was still thinking of it as a 4v 3 situation. I suppose rather than No Lynch we could go lynch traf. If town, vig Son!c; if cult vig Vot. If both traf and Son!c flip town then the remaining list would be me, Vot, Swang and EW as possible recruiter since Charle would be cleared.

Still disagree Traf. With Charles claim, it's more important now to test his allegiance tonight than it was before and take as many shots at getting the recruiter before hes no longer town than it was before.
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Re: The Thing Day 2

Postby TrafalgarLaw01 on Fri Dec 08, 2023 7:56 am

strike wolf wrote:Still disagree Traf. With Charles claim, it's more important now to test his allegiance tonight than it was before and take as many shots at getting the recruiter before hes no longer town than it was before.


I agree its better to test his allegiance. Thats why my second post said actually better vig no lynch.

We can make a vote to see who is vigged or let charle take his shot with his best call(most likely will be me, but oh well Hope just losing a townie will make it better for town) and not the chance of losing 2
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Re: The Thing Day 2

Postby TrafalgarLaw01 on Fri Dec 08, 2023 8:00 am

But if we go vig lynch we want a negative BTd3. 1 in 3 to get the thing better than 1 in 4 without the mac reveal. So might work.


Oh btw I forgot to adress I had no clue Charle was the vig as he suggetsed. Orherwise would have note voted him
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Re: The Thing Day 2

Postby Charle on Fri Dec 08, 2023 8:01 am

Traf, I honestly like your post and it confirms town for me, but there is another kink.

There is a very good chance that D3 will have a Vig as well, even if I am converted. Therefore, with a lynch and a vig today, will leave us with 4 players and 3 shots on D3 (BT, lynch and Vig). It is better than 3 shots at 5 players. Don't you agree?

I mention this as I will probably be converted tonight and be part of the other team tomorrow :D
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Re: The Thing Day 2

Postby Ragian on Fri Dec 08, 2023 8:10 am

I would rather lynch Swang or Votanic than Traf at this point. Or maybe EW...

@Strike, why does it have to be Traf or Sonic?
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