EW's Semi-Open Matrix Madness

[Extreme Ways]

Final votecount.
DDS (5) - Max, Ragian, pmc, Swang, Kongming
Swang (4) - fusi, charle, devante, votanic
No Lynch (4) - kingm, , Pixar, Traf, DDS
Devante (2) - Strike
Votanic (1) - Loose

DDS has died. They were: Vanilla Town.

As mentioned before, it is now night. 1

[Extreme Ways]

Trafalgarlaw has died. They were: Vanilla Town.

It is now Day 2. With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch

[*Pixar*]

Two vanillas dead, not the best start but better than PR's. Hopefully one of our PR's has some good info, if not do not come forward

[Charle]

I really do not understand why pmc and Ragian tried so hard to change the vote from Swang to DDS who we all know is a very good player for town, and he is fun as well. Or maybe i DO understand. If you go through the last posts you could see that it was scum talking to each other and convince people to change votes. Now town has lost 2 good players.

Anyway, it will need serious convincing to change my mind that the following three are not our obvious scum fellas.
1. Swang
2. PMC
3. Ragian

This is PMC's style like in the previous game when we were scum. He first voted for me (fellow scum) to put a decoy there, and then changed his vote later to make sure the train on me would not generate. In this game, when he realise that the train was on Swang, he quickly changed his vote to DDS and with Ragian's help, they could manage to get the vote away from their fellow scum mate, Swang.

I am happy to cast my vote to any of the three above, going to be an interesting day 2.

[TrafalgarLaw01]

Who would have tought I was right - you better work right to avenge me townies

[kongming3]

Not the absolute worst case scenario (no dead PRs), but definitely not ideal. Definitely a little hectic with how the last part of the day went, didn't realize that the day was ending which is a shame because more information would have been nice. Charle, I won't comment on the other two for now but I'd struggle to put Swang as obvious scum. Maintaining suspicions is fine but I'd say purely from a gameplay perspective if Swang is town it's completely logical for a 100% townsfolk (to him) to act in presumably both his and towns best interests by looking to lynch someone else instead who is less than 100% likely to be town according to information known.


For Max, why did you want DDS lynched over Swang? Both were viable lynch targets, but you went out of your way to coordinate voting on DDS. If you were purely just concerned about avoiding a tie/no-lynch scenario you could have just switched your own vote and avoided the whole last minute concern of Swang holding the voting hostage, so clearly you had a strong preference. Could you explain your reasoning for that?

[kongming3]

Took a look at the matrix, and I think it makes sense to me that even if a town PR uncovered useful information and wants to share it with town, they should still obscure their role if possible. If they know someone was up to no good during the night but don't state their exact role for instance, it limits the information mafia gets and how soon they figure out the configuration of the matrix. That lets us keep them in the dark about if there's a doctor they need to play around/when it's active, and neuter the threat on the exposed PR somewhat by getting in their head about a potential wasted shot. Obviously it then lies in the hands of our would be town saviours to figure out how to exploit that best, but it makes sense to give them as many advantages as possible in combatting our crime problem.

[swang918]

Yes- also it's completely logical for scum to leave me alive since I was getting lynch heat and may continue to get lynch heat today. There's no situation where scum would ever kill me last night.

[pmchugh]

I really do not understand why pmc and Ragian tried so hard to change the vote from Swang to DDS who we all know is a very good player for town, and he is fun as well. Or maybe i DO understand. If you go through the last posts you could see that it was scum talking to each other and convince people to change votes. Now town has lost 2 good players.

Anyway, it will need serious convincing to change my mind that the following three are not our obvious scum fellas.
1. Swang
2. PMC
3. Ragian

This is PMC's style like in the previous game when we were scum. He first voted for me (fellow scum) to put a decoy there, and then changed his vote later to make sure the train on me would not generate. In this game, when he realise that the train was on Swang, he quickly changed his vote to DDS and with Ragian's help, they could manage to get the vote away from their fellow scum mate, Swang.

I am happy to cast my vote to any of the three above, going to be an interesting day 2.

Yeah I am sus on you actually, coming out hard day 2 with a lynch plan was definitely your MO as scum. And last game you were so obviously town.

Your narrative makes no sense, I wasn't trying hard to get DDS lynched in fact swang should have been lynched because of when the deadline was set, EW never kept to it and allowed the votes after his initial deadline. Neither of which was me, and kong who actually was the one who pushed it never made your list some how.

I was happier with DDS than swang because the swang thing felt like activity, rather than scumminess, but I would have hit swang for sure if it was going to be no lynch and I noticed.

I do think the end of the day was very interesting and should probably review it more closely.

[pmchugh]

And is it just me or is traf a really odd kill choice. He said nothing and did nothing.

[Loose Canon]

Don't want to get too close to the deadline and miss a chance to save myself.

unvote dev, vote No Lynch

I'd rather lynch someone than no lynch, but I'd rather no lynch than get lynched.

Or you could vote DDS, that would save you too. Why no lynch?

I'm not taking the heat off of Votanic (he's a volcano and can deal with it)
I had Vot as 60% Town (55% Vanilla and 5%PR) 40% Scum pre the end of D1 and stick with that (albeit odds of everyone being scum have shortened now)

However in terms of the late movement that switched the D1 lynching off of Swang onto DDS the above from Max stands out as most suss to me.


He probably thought (as I did) that Swang had left it too late to save himself therefore suggesting Swang switch from no Lynch to DDS would be irrelevant to outcome of Swang being lynched but buy him some town cred whatever Swang flipped.
As it happened somehow the switch did work for Swang but everyone who switched plus Swang looks suss.

I however think the suggestion itself was suss.

And when I look at Maxs posts - they have said nothing.
Started with a joke post about DDS being suss for not taking the game seriously (in the joke phase) , and then reinforced/agreed with other players suss of DDS.
no more contributions than that really.

Back seating inching of other players to a mislynch - whilst avoiding sticking his head above the parapet.

Scum tell for me.

Would like to vote vot still - but that can wait because this is a strong tell for me end of D1 happenings.

However Vote Maxleod

[swang918]

And when I look at Maxs posts - they have said nothing.
Started with a joke post about DDS being suss for not taking the game seriously (in the joke phase) , and then reinforced/agreed with other players suss of DDS.
no more contributions than that really.

Back seating inching of other players to a mislynch - whilst avoiding sticking his head above the parapet.

Scum tell for me.

I mean Max stuck his head up pretty high though. He went hard against DDS.

[Loose Canon]

Max went against DDS with 1 or 2 sentences per post, none of which offered any new analytical insight as to why DDS might be scum.
I question whether he thought the vote swing would work, I thought it was too late and wouldn't.
Blending in with apparent action and posts, throughout D1, amounting to zilch.
Unless anything substantive from PRs revealed I most want to see max lynched D2

[Loose Canon]

For D2 voting strategy I'm going to suggest the following;

Put 2 players up for lynch vote and once those players are up we just lynch one or the other IF (until) Night Actions Do NOT (do) reveal a firm lynchee

First player to get 3 Votes D2 is the first candidate for lynching (could be the player Swang reveals he is most suss of)
The First candidate for lynching chooses the Second lynchee candidate.

Would make it a straight duke out between 2 players, could have later advantages, there's already been a lot of suspicions thrown around D1 already, mafia manipulation of votes is a possibility/probability whether we did this or not.

Does anyone want to argue this is a bad idea, or suggest something better?

Bad form to quote myself I admit, but above will probably be the best contribution I make for town this game

CAN'T EMPHASIZE IT ENOUGH.

Does anyone want to argue against or suggest an improvement to it?

[strike wolf]

Not the absolute worst case scenario (no dead PRs), but definitely not ideal. Definitely a little hectic with how the last part of the day went, didn't realize that the day was ending which is a shame because more information would have been nice. Charle, I won't comment on the other two for now but I'd struggle to put Swang as obvious scum. Maintaining suspicions is fine but I'd say purely from a gameplay perspective if Swang is town it's completely logical for a 100% townsfolk (to him) to act in presumably both his and towns best interests by looking to lynch someone else instead who is less than 100% likely to be town according to information known.

It's not so much that Swang voted DDS, it's the hard shift away from a Swang lynch at the end that makes it feel more than a little coordinated. I'm a little hesitant to believe that two scum would both switch the bandwagon on their scummate so blatantly but I could definitely see at least one of the people who switched the bandwagon at the last moment being scum. Especially if Swang himself flips that way. PMC is one that sticks out to me because he came up with the lynch pact but then didn't vote until the momentum had switched to Swang. He seemed to be active at the time. So he could have definitely voted Swang but commented against it.

@Charle: Why those three and not ones like Kong or even me since we also voted Swang late?

@Loose. Yes. Limiting our focus to two people and letting everyone else skirt is a bad idea.

@PMC: Traf just seems like a kill to make sure it went through to be honest. Unlikely to be protected but also not much heat on a lynch. That and/or mafia was hunting for a power role amongst the quieter townies.

[strike wolf]

Ebwop: Meant to say voted DDS late.

[Loose Canon]

Ok strike.

Having more than 2 players to vote for each lynch allows scum to either drive a mislynch easier.

Narrowing choice down to 2 players the way I suggest ensures if the first player suspected is town at least the 2nd player is the honest scummiest per a townie.

And you are only limiting choice for each day, and you are still getting reads on other players according to how they justify voting one player over another.

Do you seriously want to take me on in this argument Strike?

[Votanic]

Tonight's Votanic-Post® is brought to you by....
The Eye Roll Summing it up perfectly sever since orbital muscles evolved.

So,so, so much to analyze/criticize here, but first...
Yo! This next part isn't just words and vibes. This is 'REAL'. Look here.! Look here!

As much as I hate to admit it... PMC is 100% right here.

Your narrative makes no sense, I wasn't trying hard to get DDS lynched in fact swang should have been lynched because of when the deadline was set, EW never kept to it and allowed the votes after his initial deadline. Neither of which was me, and kong who actually was the one who pushed it never made your list some how.

Regarding dayphase end, it ends on Sunday the 19th 5pm CCT. Any posts after this will not be considered.
Check what this means in your local timezone: https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/g ... nt=cursive

This is a real curve-ball. First of all it changes who got lynched from swang to DDS, ...or are we going to just dismiss that as a minor detail?!?!?!
...and secondly it makes the last minute votes and vote changes harder to analyze. It is possible that a player could have show-voted a vote that they didn't really think would count, and were surprised as anyone when it did. I'm not sure there is much evidence for that but it is something to consider.

Actually, I'm going to post this as a stand-alone and then get back to writing a more typical 'Morning of Day 2' analysis. Stay tuned for the thrilling Part Two!!

[Votanic]

Part Two, as promised.

Okay, first of all, another general reminder that Town's investigate PRs are a long-shot at best this game...
The Tracker and/or Motion Detector (if they even exist?!) needs to find a needle in a haystack, and then correctly interpret and successfully communicate that intel to town. Not. Very. Likely.
Then add in superior Scum PRs and the way Town's PRs 'shut-off at the end when the odds finally get good and the whole situation becomes absurd.
Everyone who is Town is basically Vanilla this game.

On Day 2, I do like to give a list of Player Reads...
My lists are not absurdly comprehensive rundowns of who is town and who is scum, complete with even more absurd percentages and category designations...
Instead, I just analyze players words/actions, though I will say if a behavior is scummy or anti-town if I feel it deserves it.
I only rarely dare to suggest someone/something is Townish, because that's exactly what Scum is always trying to fake anyway.

1. Strike Wolf: The actual last player to vote for DDS, though way after the deadline, and uncounted that could be easily have been a fake-vote done for show... "Accidentally" voting for a townie can make some think oyu ar eTown, especially if the vote didn't do any 'real' damage.
2. Devante: Also a lete DDS vote, similar to strike. However he seems less involved in game details than strike... But he doesn't need to be this game where Scum have All-day Chat. It just takes is a PM from scum central for an absent player to show up for a vote change... Of course this would only be done for a townish look, Scum already knew by then that they had a noos around a townie. That being DDS, not swang, who luckily (or expertly) dodged his fate.
3. pmchugh: He is the only player, besides me, that pointed out EW went back on his word... He didn't have to do that, and therefore, that actually could be perceived as Town (might indeed be so) ...but on the other hand, he is also sophisticated enough to fabricate just such a 'townslip' (as he likes to call it).
4. Votanic: Cynical, hard-bitten Townie. Yet still somehow hoping against hope... He's walked the mean streets of Mafiaville long enough to see some really ugly things... You'll only get his trust if/when you deserve it.
5. Swang918: A lot of other players really seemed to care that would not be not lynched WHY??? As for his actual play, his posts have been minimal, at least until his own survival was at stake. Yes, I know, there are other minimal players out there too. Looking at you, Pixar.. and you as well, KingM.
6. Loose Cannon: Yes, I know he's tunneling on me. (Really trying to save Town can make you a lot of enemies in this game...) His play is full of ridicul distractions that are inarguably Anti-Town... but is he actually Scum?? I don't know, ...but if he has decided to intentionally Town-play like Sonic (i.e. 2 dumb 4 scum) just to amuse himself and save his own neck, well, that is actually much more despicable than scum...
7. DirtyDishSoap: Folks were saying he was playing differently this game. I didn't really get that. He seemed like the same 'too cool for school' jokester he usually is to me. However, I can see how that kind of flippant attitude might be perceived as a scum-taunt by some...
8. Kingm: He is a fairly new player and most of his posts seem to be commenting ona game mechanics. That alone ring alarm bells with me. I expect and hope new players will question everything. However, by that same token, all it takes for a new player to submarinew to victory is keep a low prfile and give of 'INNOCENT' vibes @ Kingm (& Kong) stay 'innocentish' as long as possible for it is the greatest weapon known in Mafia games! ...but don't kid yourself it will last. Eventually you will end up as dead-eyed and hate-filled as the rest of us.
9. kongming3:EW treated Kong's vote as the hammer (after the deadline) though Devante and strike continue to places uncounted voted after his. @EW: Why was that?
Yes, kong could have switched votes for scummy reason, but then again, Rag and Max can be very persuasive with their totally unsubstantiated arguments (That is until you get to know them...)
10. *Pixar*: He doesn't post much regardless of being Town or Scum... In some games that could attract attention/investigation, but with this game design he has a fairly good chance of just maintaing the status quo, ...at least in the early days.
11. Maxleod: He comes off as a tunneller to me and I still kind-of perceive his DDS campaign as justa tunnel. If he is scum it worked okay yesterday, but now he has to carry a town-lyncher reputation on his shoulders.
12. Ragian: Rags actually dedicated more, letters, words, and posts to getting DDS lynched than Max did... and I don't think of rags as a tunneler, I think of him as highly manipulative. He might not so much have cared that DDS died, but he did seem to really care that swang lived.
13. Charle: I don't have a strong opinion of Charle being townish or scummish,, but as I've said before his persona is like a friendly spokesman trying to sell us organic oatmeal or rat-poison... and if he is Scum, he could easily switch the two products around and we might not know until it is too late...
14. fusibaseball: O wow, I still have to review fusi. He' didn't post much until his last post, which is epic. A lot to process. He started the swang bandwagon. I'm not sure why, but that does not seem scummy to me... He's a good player, I hope he's town. Afterall, a power-reduced Town shouldn't have to deal with fusi as scum too. So Murphy's Law: fusi must be Scum.
15. Trafalgarlaw01: I didn't have an opinion one way or the other this game. Advocating 'No Lynch' might seem scummy, but only very slightly so. In truth, players constantly vote for no lynches all the time for any number of reasons. By itself, it doesn't mean much. Anyway, he was Town and now he's Dead... and so it goes.

Okay, enough. Just remember when you start saying mean things about me (sob...) at least you can't say that I just coast.

[Loose Canon]

Hey Vot.

I like that you are using EWs player list numbers to order your thoughts about players.

Regarding player 6, he thinks Ridicule is Nothing to be Scared of.

To answer more your and Strikes criticism of what I'm suggesting for D2 voting narrowing it down to 2 players.

Everyone is up for consideration early in a day.
Encourages players to post their suspicions early to influence who the first candidate is.
Takes 3 actual votes to make a player the first candidate.
First candidate chooses the alternative candidate.
Just limits later candidates being thrown into the mix later in that day as a distraction.
Focuses and Simplifies for Town
Scum will Hate It.

Come on argue seriously or concede.
Stand and Deliver!

[Votanic]

Hey Vot.

I like that you are using EWs player list numbers to order your thoughts about players.

Regarding player 6, he thinks Ridicule is Nothing to be Scared of.

To answer more your and Strikes criticism of what I'm suggesting for D2 voting narrowing it down to 2 players.

Everyone is up for consideration early in a day.
Encourages players to post their suspicions early to influence who the first candidate is.
Takes 3 actual votes to make a player the first candidate.
First candidate chooses the alternative candidate.
Just limits later candidates being thrown into the mix later in that day as a distraction.
Focuses and Simplifies for Town
Scum will Hate It.

Come on argue seriously or concede.
Stand and Deliver!

So...everone is up for consideration and then 'we' vote for a candidate?
Gee, that sounds similar to the game known as Mafia.
You should play it sometime...

[Votanic]

Here, I'll get the ball rolling... Vote LC.

[strike wolf]

Yea. LC you're big plan is basically how the days tend to go anyways just with a bit more commitment to lynching at the end. By the time the lynch happens we're pretty much down to two at most three candidates anyways.

[Loose Canon]

No Strike/Vot the final lynch is between 2 players with deviation away from that highly highly suspect.

And doing it systematically in the way I suggest ensures that 1 of the 2 players is at least put up for voting by a non-mafia player (if the player chosen by the first 3 votes) turns out to be not mafia.

There are big advantages in the final selection for lynching being narrowed systematically down to 2 players in this way.

Do you guys really want mafia to be able to drive a bus every day through the multiple suspicions that mafia want to either cultivate themselves or better still from their point of view just allow to grow like weeds?

Are you not thinking or are you trying to deliberately play against town?

[Loose Canon]

Why not just admit it - I've suggested a clearcut good lynching strategy for Town here.