Ragian WINS The Mafiosi Vincent Vega Vengeful game

[Ragian]

The thing is... If we have a cop, Traf is most certainly scum. That's a decent trade. And a cop may also have two innocent checks. A cop revealing puts us on the road to winning. I don't see why the cop shouldn't come forward of it gives us one scum and two townies. Especially if it's on top of other townies like Max.

[SoN!c]

Official vote count


Traf (3) : Charle, Kongming, homer_jay
Charle (2) : Traf, Maxleod
Kingm (1) : Loose Canon



With 9 alive it takes 5 votes to lynch.
In case no majority is reached at the end of the day: the player with most votes is autolynched. And in case of a tie the first vote of the tie (decided by timestamp) counts double.

[Loose Canon]

Just checking in - not that I think it will matter much - because my best guess is Traf as Arsonist will be lynched today.

[Ragian]

Yeah, Traf looks like he'll be lynched. I'm waiting to hear from those voting Traf what their next move is if Traf flips scum or town. If he flips arsonist, fair enough.

Charle, kong, homer? What's the post lynch plan?

[Charle]

Yeah, Traf looks like he'll be lynched. I'm waiting to hear from those voting Traf what their next move is if Traf flips scum or town. If he flips arsonist, fair enough.

Charle, kong, homer? What's the post lynch plan?

Personally I have no plan yet, first we will need to see whether Traf is Arsonist or Scum, or Town and then go back and see who protected and for what reasons.

[Loose Canon]

Well a town Charle should have a plan for if Traf flips Arsonist or Town.
Particularly as Charle is looking to me and I'm sure to some others as one of the more suspicious players.
The line of at least it won't cost town too much if they mislynch me won't cut it tomorrow.

Whether a town Charle should disclose what his planning ahead is, is perhaps another matter.

[homer_jay]

i doubt traf is arsonist. if he is, that's a huge shock but really, with so many people auto-primed, likely good for us anyways. but i doubt it would come to that.

if he's scum, that's what we expect and we go from there. there has been no defense of him and very few attempts to get the vote to others.. so him being mafia doesn't really tell us much about others. but it does get one scum out of the way,

if he's town... well.. then it means everything we've thought is wrong and we're starting at square one with almost no info

but that's not a reason not to vote for him. because knowing we're wrong is better than trying to work other angles assuming we're right and building off of that

[Ragian]

I don't Luke either of those answers...

[Kingm]

So I'm finally back home, and I have used the last couple of hours reading everything, would love to say EUREKA, and I have solved it, but that would be a lie, and from what I gather here, there is a bunch of great liars here.

So I have made a list, and just made 2 categories:

Sus:
Charle, Trafalgarlaw01, homer_jay, Ragian, Devante

Not sus:
Kingm, Loose Canon, Kongming3, Maxleod

Vote Charle

My first thought was that I wanted to go back to max, but when I checked up on friendly neighbor, and then checked our available roles, and also having the neighbor telling us about the visit almost makes him 100% town to me, same with LC, and I also feel strongly that kong is town.

Of the 5 players I have listed as sus, I really do not have any specific things to point to and say "that's why I suspect you", its just everything combined, and the one player I really think is scum is Charle. I would be surprised if not the 2 mafia and the arsonist is in the list of my 5 suspects.

And I would also pledge that I will try my very best to be more active until this game is over.

[Ragian]

@Kingm, thank you very much. Lists are helpful. Especially in the long run. Even if there isn't too much of an argument behind them. A few questions: While I can appreciate the vague "it's the sum of everything" behind suspicion, but I would like something more substantial behind a vote that may ultimately condemn a player to the noose.

Why Charle? Whom would you see as his accomplish?

[SoN!c]

Official vote count


Traf (3) : Charle, Kongming, homer_jay
Charle (3) : Traf, Maxleod, Kingm
Kingm (1) : Loose Canon



With 9 alive it takes 5 votes to lynch.
In case no majority is reached at the end of the day: the player with most votes is autolynched. And in case of a tie the first vote of the tie (decided by timestamp) counts double.

Traf has the first vote (by Charle)

[Charle]

King I must be honest, just by mentioning the playing sounding the most suspect is me? Is there any reason apart from me voting Traf that makes you think I am scum? I must say, if Traf turns scum, then this will answer LC's question as to what my plan will be the following day.

[kongming3]

So currently it's just Dev and Ragian that haven't voted someone? King, I like the list and you should obviously prioritise your health so no need to overly worry about activity levels. I'd have a similar list for people on the towny-ish side of things (though still having some potential for some sort of mafia traitor/3p/other scum shenanigans mixed in) except for having you and Ragian swapped currently. With that said, I'm still far more comfortable lynching Traf than Charle here, even if Charle could conceivably be some sort of scum. Town has had a number of setbacks recently, and needs an effective lynch today if we want to stay in the game. I think it makes more sense to lynch Traf as someone for whom we have a number of concrete reasons to suspect, rather than Charle as someone who it just feels like could be scum with limited evidence beyond that. The discussion is still useful though.

[Ragian]

I also feel that a Traf lynch gives us more than lynching Charle.

[SoN!c]

Reminder: Deadline timer D3 is SATURDAY MAY 17th

Just 4 days, 5 hours, 9 minutes, 0 seconds left

A 5 votes lynch will end the day immediately

show

[Loose Canon]

Charle has voted Traf D3 (quite early) - Homer & Dev were I think committed to a Traf lynch D2 - Charle could be with Traf figuring early D3 Traf is a dead duck anyway.
King has been quietest and has now voted Charle.
King could have voted Charle and both be mafia figuring (arsonist) Traf is going to be lynched.

I do suspect Charle and I do suspect King, and everyone suspects Traf.

Either King or vanilla claimees including Charle or most players could be Town Cop if Traf is lying.
So there'd be a bit of danger in voting King later than soon D3 now in case he's a town cop.

My tactical read is I still think King is a better alternative to Charle (as an alternative to lynching Traf).
King could be with Traf, Charle, Homer or Dev.

I think Traf could very likely be a baddun, but if so and if a mafia baddun King jumps out at me as his most likely buddy.
If Traf is an arsonist baddun, then we haven't really narrowed down the mafia badduns enough.

I also read Kong as strongly town - his irritation at my derailing the Traf lynch D2 is consistent with his post game irritation of a similar game where he figured out the direct vote to town victory and was correct.
So because of my tactical read that King is a better candidate than Charle, and because if I and Kong survive we need to work together D4 I'm at least not personally going to divert my vote from King to Charle.

So I'm leaving my vote on King as a tactical alternative to Traf.

[Maxleod]

Let's say Traf really is the Reporter. Who stands to gain the most from his death? SCUM.

Also, Rags outing me as the Friendly Neighbour makes me virtually unlynchable, which means Scum will NK me sooner than later. FOS Rags.

Loose didn't have to claim Vigilante, he was not at risk of being lynched. If he really is the Vig, Scum will kill him, he signed his own death warrant, that makes no sense, FOS Loose.

[Ragian]

Fos me all you want. I received town info and shared it because it's not (and never) as if a Max lynch is miles away. I prevented a mislynch, and I make scum waste a kill on a non PR. So pack that ego back in and get with the programme.

Who is scum on the Traf train, Max? In your opinion.

[Maxleod]

I also feel that a Traf lynch gives us more than lynching Charle.

You're pushing for a Traf lynch yet you haven't voted, please explain.

[Ragian]

I'm not pushing, I'm sharing. Firstly, deadline is Saturday. Secondly, we don't need a majority to lynch.

[Loose Canon]

Max, mafia will aim a night kill at a townie so why not me?
Also I'll own a vigkill that went bad for town.
It was pretty obvious I did it too.
I guess there are scenarios where I could be mafia sided nevertheless.

After all, I'm speculating that Jim "wild" Meeks, retired cop could be mafia sided because it's possible from the information I have available to me - which is nil - except the possible mafia traitor, that mafia had some cops on their books, and the back up vigkill gun went to strike who looked mafia to me D2 and handcuffs and bulletproof vest the other goodies could be equally useful to mafia as town - so maybe a mafia sided Jim has given or is giving these out to players he is assessing as mafia.

[TrafalgarLaw01]

I was gonna comment yesterday but prefered to wait the answers of Rag questions.

Anyway there are people that are certainly lying withing the "vanilla" players. So let's assume Charle is saying the truth and indeed is vanilla as was the first to claim. (I still think his behavior was really suspicious as as explained before).

So it would be between Kong, Homer, and Kingm (Maybe Dev as wella s he did not move but haven't confirmed the claim). As said I do believe Kong and I checked on Dev. But Homer and Kingm are different story.

Homer: 1) Claim with no preassure at all and never explained why. 2) Has casted votes without much explanation either. 3 Trying to push a lynch without much argument

Kingm: 1) has been mostly absent 2) Was the last to claim Vanila (but could be related to being absent). 3) Seems to be voting all over the place.

So if people believe Charle is town (Which again I'm not conviced at all) I'm willing to switch votes to Homer or Kingm

[Charle]

Wow, I am really confused now. My thinking was that Traf and King are a scum pair, but it changed now.

[Loose Canon]

I don't Luke either of those answers...

(I assume that was directed at Charle and HomerJ (not me)).
On that assumption I agree with Rags sentiments.

Trafs last post - the HomerJ bit plays into a maybe Rag can be persuaded and then influence other players onto someone else - Traf avoiding lynch.
The King bit of Trafs post - no Charle I don't read that as particularly persuasive that Traf and King are not a Mafia duo.
There remains a possibility to me at least that Traf is a valuable Town reporter

My probabilities on Traf are roughly;
Town Reporter 15%
Mafia 30% (25% of which is if with King most of remaining 5% is if with Charle)
Arsonist 55% (mainly because I can only really see him being with King)

King could be mafia with Traf, Homer, Dev, Charle.
Any 2 of King, Homer, Dev, Charle could be a mafia pair with a slightly lower probability that Homer and Dev are a pair (just don't think as likely if as a mafia pair they'd both have been so willing to be seen together pushing a lynch trigger on Traf D2)

Think about my analysis Charle, a town Charle should.
Then if you don't agree with my analysis Charle, argue with it, but I don't particularly like your extremely confused post just now, either now. (although I'm not going to switch my vote onto you today)

[Ragian]

We finally had Max in here and then he dodges my question and asks me one instead. Such an abusive relationship