The Hobbit Mafia [Town win]

[Thorthoth]

No-lynching is anti-town because it disadvantages town, not scum. Unless we believe that town has a stronger night game than scum does then we must lynch, and as it stands we have no reason to believe that town is stronger at night than scum. So pika is not scummy on that particular basis.

Wait... I'm talking about a blind lynch. Obviously the Town is a large majority at the beginning of the game (I would guess 75-80%, right?). That means if we randomly/blindly lynch somebody it's that same 75-80% chance that we lynch a townie. Of course it's different if we have a legitimately scummy lynch candidate.

Okay, so far, We've just heard from Skoffin, I want to hear from other (all?) players on this subject. If you really think on Day 1 that 'No lynch' is more anti-town than a blind lynch please explain your reasoning. I can be convinced by sound reasoning but we all need to hear from enough player to know that this is not just a scum misdirection conspiracy.

[Pikanchion]

No-lynching is anti-town because it disadvantages town, not scum. Unless we believe that town has a stronger night game than scum does then we must lynch, and as it stands we have no reason to believe that town is stronger at night than scum. So pika is not scummy on that particular basis.

Wait... I'm talking about a blind lynch. Obviously the Town is a large majority at the beginning of the game (I would guess 75-80%, right?). That means if we randomly/blindly lynch somebody it's that same 75-80% chance that we lynch a townie. Of course it's different if we have a legitimately scummy lynch candidate.

Because then we put ourselves entirely at the mercy of the setup, and the luck of the town's relevant power roles should they exist. Say we have one standard investigative role in this game and only one scum team with a single kill between them, the investigator has almost the same chance of investigating a townie as the town would have had of lynching a townie, chances are therefore that we go into day 2 with one less town member and no more information than we had day 1. This means you are still left with a choice between a blind lynch or no lynch the following day, and under your reasoning we should, in that case, simply no lynch as the risk of lynching town would still be up around the amount it was on day 1. This is why the joke vote stage and a day one lynch are important, it forces people to debate (albeit often silly or mundane things), to join or not join the lynching of the specific individual, giving clues for later once we know the alignment of the day 1 lynchee.

It is also the only time at which the mafia haven't had a chance to communicate, to organise. Sometimes this is useful, especially during theme games, and is the reason I wish to know if anybody is playing multiple dwarves for instance.

[Ragian]

Having voting history on people is of major importance for town later in the game. No lynching D1 impedes this. If we no lynch D1, we go blindly into the night not knowing on whom to use any town power roles.

[DirtyDishSoap]

God damnit, not this debate again...

Listen, I created a topic on it in the sub forum, go hunt it down and argue the logistics behind the pro's and con's if you feel as passionate about it as I have.

Back on the former topic.

That being said, just want to mainly rebuttal those two underlined points up there.
Saruman and his spies were influencing the weather and conditions around the mountain passes, so I'm not convinced the Fellowship could've avoided Moria. Even if they had, we then might not have gotten Super Gandalf.
And I'm pretty certain the only beings aware of the secret Ungol pass were Gollum, Shelob and the few orcs up there. Certainly no-one on the forces of good knew about it.

And correct me if I'm wrong, but Gondor was very much still standing at the time of the war. Weak-ish yes, but that was overwhelmingly more to do with the Great Plague and Easterling attacks than Sauron's orcs.

It is true that Saruman was integral to the weather conditions in the pass, but again this is somewhat dependant on Gollum's torture and Sauron's early advance, with the Nazgûl having chased the Hobbits right up to Rivendell it was clear that The Fellowship would be forced through the mountains somewhere in that general region. Without this knowledge, or even having gotten this knowledge a little later it may have given the time necessary to traverse the mountains before Saruman blocked it. To my knowledge Gandalf's new colour was merely a display of his new heirachical position within the Istari upon his resurrection, rather than an increase in his powers, although I may be wrong on that.

It is true that few others knew the pass Gollum used, however among that number were both Faramir and Gandalf. Meanwhile with both Aragorn and Legolas capable rangers, they may well have been capable of finding another (albeit much slower, and likely just as dangerous) route through the mountains if required.

This whole discussion is irrelevant. The story follows The Hobbit, not the LOTR trilogy.

As for lynching inactives...It doesn't make sense. If they were lurking, sure, lynch them, but they haven't even posted yet.

[BuJaber]

How would playing two characters work? Also the first time you asked if there are any single dwarves and now you ask about multiple; if someone answers either of those questions, what will that tell us about dwarves? Not sure I understand your line of thinking.. unless you mean some sort of mason role where two dwarves are playing individual characters but they are aware of each other.

I feel that defensiveness is indeed a scum tell but ultra defensiveness is often a town tell. So thor I don't know why you're mad because I'm saying you're town. For the record pika voting for you is not 'blind'.

Between completely random lynch and no lynch obviously no lynch is better. But day 1 lynches are not random they're just based on somewhat weak evidence and gut feelings. They also give us patterns on who sided with whom. So I'm against no lynch for that reason.

Dakky if you always suspect me in every game then you must have a tell on me. The problem is I've always been town in every mafia game here except one time I was wolf in one night which is honestly a different game. So maybe your scum tell is just a town tell.

[madmitch]

I don't know where this ideal of someone playing more than 1 dwarf .how is this even possible ? I also believe we need to lynch someone ,this no-lynch is bad business and I see 2 good choices Pika and MM if they don't stop that shit about LOTR's, enough already ,you both know the story

[HotShot53]

PIka, I think your last post just gave off a majorly scummy stench... but I want to hear what everybody else thinks.

I'm asking, folks: Which is scummier: suggesting a 'No Lynch' on Day 1 or trying to lynch the guy that suggested the 'No Lynch'?

If the consensus is that Pika is being scummy, we don't need to worry about a blind lynch. We can just lynch Pika.

Right now, I''ll just say FOS @ Pika but I may switch that to a vote if enough experienced players concur.

btw, read Pika's fine print too. What is he talking about?? Gollum died at the end of LOTR.

On this forum, advocating for no-lynch is usually considered scummy, and can result in that person being the lynchee. Usually it's newer players who do it, not realizing that no-lynching isn't commonly accepted here... to be honest, my first few games here I suggested it, and probably got lynched for it lol. The thing is it's not a no-lynch compered to a completely random lynch.... it's a no-lynch compared to a lynch based on hunches, accusations, defenses, seeing who supports who, etc. Even if a town is lynched (which often happens), power roles go into night 1 with at least some information based on how everyone responded to the lynch. And occasionally we even lynch a scum day 1.

Pika jumping on the easy case of "vote the newbie who suggested no-lynch" seems a bit suspicious though, as Thorthoth wasn't even the first to suggest it. Why him over one of the other no-lynchers?

[Pikanchion]

Pika jumping on the easy case of "vote the newbie who suggested no-lynch" seems a bit suspicious though, as Thorthoth wasn't even the first to suggest it. Why him over one of the other no-lynchers?

DirtyDishSoap advocates a No Lynch in every single game, for me to vote them based off of that alone would mean I vote for DirtyDishSoap day 1 of every single game, effectively no different than picking a player to vote for by rolling a die.

[Pikanchion]

How would playing two characters work? Also the first time you asked if there are any single dwarves and now you ask about multiple; if someone answers either of those questions, what will that tell us about dwarves? Not sure I understand your line of thinking.. unless you mean some sort of mason role where two dwarves are playing individual characters but they are aware of each other.

I never asked if there are any single dwarves, as there plainly is at least one (Thorin). Claiming that I did is somewhat suspect. Earlier I gave an example of what I meant but I will explain further if there is some confusion, I'm asking if any one player has the role of "Kíli & Fíli" for instance, or any of the other logical pairings, a single role in terms of game mechanics, but two characters from a purely thematic perspective. I guess I should also state that this is not some sort of ploy trick Gollum into revealing themselves in case somebody with two characters was worried by that, after all Gollum is merely a single character with two distinct personalities, and not in fact two characters. I will answer why I wish to know this once I have enough responses to satisfy the need to ask this question.

[DirtyDishSoap]

So let's assume that Gollum's sanity is in play here. Would it be far fetched to think he could have a role of an insane/paranoid cop?

[Pikanchion]

So let's assume that Gollum's sanity is in play here. Would it be far fetched to think he could have a role of an insane/paranoid cop?

Thematically that would work but mechanically it doesn't fit well, Gollum is at best a neutral third party, and scum generally have no need for a cop. Maybe if this were a game about the trilogy that could be made to work, but not here.

[BuJaber]

Meanwhile, as I have said before, I think it is important to know if anybody is playing more than one Dwarf, could anybody who is not doing so please state as much?

"Not doing so" = not "playing more than one Dwarf" = playing only one dwarf. That is how I understood this line, my apologies if I misunderstood but that's what I was referring to.

[Pikanchion]

Meanwhile, as I have said before, I think it is important to know if anybody is playing more than one Dwarf, could anybody who is not doing so please state as much?

"Not doing so" = not "playing more than one Dwarf" = playing only one dwarf. That is how I understood this line, my apologies if I misunderstood but that's what I was referring to.

Ah, but [not "playing more than one Dwarf"] =/= [playing only one dwarf]; If you were playing a human for instance you would [not be playing more than one Dwarf], but would not [be playing only one Dwarf]. Sorry for the confusion.

[DirtyDishSoap]

So let's assume that Gollum's sanity is in play here. Would it be far fetched to think he could have a role of an insane/paranoid cop?

Thematically that would work but mechanically it doesn't fit well, Gollum is at best a neutral third party, and scum generally have no need for a cop. Maybe if this were a game about the trilogy that could be made to work, but not here.

Never said he'd have to be town/scum aligned to make it work. He could be just a third party, ready to pit everyone against everyone, if that were to make sense. That's the only thing that's coming to mind at the moment that could fit Gollum's modus operandi in The Hobbit, even then, I agree it'd fit more thematically in the trilogy rather than the hobbit.

If we're lucky, maybe he's just a survivor. Lol.

[Thorthoth]

Three issues to bring up and/or resolve:

1.

So thor I don't know why you're mad because I'm saying you're town.

I wasn't mad at you for saying I'm town, if that was what you really said. You said a lot of thing. I am town and I'm not mad about it.

2. I will revert to neutrality on the no lynch vs. blind lynch debate. I may even join in a lynch on Day 1, if it doesn't feel scummy. I will admit in the interest of maintaining movement and intrigue, a lynch is better than a no lynch. I also retract my FOS: unFOS Pika.

3. In The Hobbit, all of the adversarial characters basically acted independently. However, that doesn't mean they must all be separate teams in this game. Putting Gollum, Smaug, Mirkwood elves, trolls and giant spiders all on the same team doesn't make sense story-wise, but it may make a lot of sense with game dynamics. This could also be evidence for Sauron/Necromancer as a character, as the malign influence of the one ring could possibly underlie all 'evil' in Middle-Earth.

[Samlen]

My stance on day 1 is typically no lynch. Why? We talk and joke and talk some more until some random unfortunate person is 'suspicious' for a normal trait of their playstyle. You can argue that day 1 lynches go for the people that seem scummy but anything can be seen as scummy when you have nothing to go on. And what happens if you force an important power role to claim day 1 just to save themselves? Or worse, ignore their defense and lynch them? You can argue that we can lynch someone the next day based off of who voted for/against that person but it was essentially a random lynch and the scum could be anywhere on or off of that wagon.

However day 2 is typically different for a couple of reasons.
1. Someone is dead (this is typically mostly random for the first night so not much information can be gathered from this other than their role).
2. Power roles have a small amount of information (vs none).
In pretty much all themed setups with this many people, we are going to have more than one power role. Chances are, most of them will learn something. Even a tracker tracking a vanilla learns something purely because they didn't do anything. If we're lucky, they find scum. If they don't find scum, they still gain information that helps guide town to a better lynch, regardless if they claim or not.
On that note: Vote No Lynch

Onto other thoughts. Thor's remark on how all of the adversaries in the Hobbit were mostly independent is interesting. It'd be weird but the idea of a large amount of scum but each working independently from each other instead of one localized scum group might be a possibility.

[ZaBeast]

Onto other thoughts. Thor's remark on how all of the adversaries in the Hobbit were mostly independent is interesting. It'd be weird but the idea of a large amount of scum but each working independently from each other instead of one localized scum group might be a possibility.

So you're thinking along the lines of rotating the kill between the different scums without letting them talk to each other? Sounds like a broken mechanic (or at the very least, unconventionnal), but who knows?
I don't think that's what thort meant though.

3. In The Hobbit, all of the adversarial characters basically acted independently. However, that doesn't mean they must all be separate teams in this game. Putting Gollum, Smaug, Mirkwood elves, trolls and giant spiders all on the same team doesn't make sense story-wise, but it may make a lot of sense with game dynamics. This could also be evidence for Sauron/Necromancer as a character, as the malign influence of the one ring could possibly underlie all 'evil' in Middle-Earth.

How I understand it is having incompatible characters in the same scum team for the sake of the dynamic at the expense of the logic of the story. IMO, whether the scum team is composed of orcs, spiders, or evil kittens doesn't change a thing, unless it helps to guess the setup.

Ah, but [not "playing more than one Dwarf"] =/= [playing only one dwarf]; If you were playing a human for instance you would [not be playing more than one Dwarf], but would not [be playing only one Dwarf]. Sorry for the confusion.

From the speculation we made about the setup, I remember non-dwarves characters were presumed to be power roles (except Thorin I guess). I think claiming you are not a dwarf would be making yourself a lovely candidate for the night kill.

And about the inactivity issue, on second thought, I think nickthesticks may be a vanilla townie. Since he read his role but didn't bother posting, maybe he got disappointed by it. Obviously there are other explanations, but I think it may be the one most likely. Therefore, lynching him won't probably do much harm to town, but I don't think it will advance our cause much.

[nagerous]

I am hunting a replacement for Iron Butterfly, he still hasnt read him pm for role and hasnt posted on the website since the start of August.

Would love to replace but too busy irl unless people don't mind me coasting and scumarining my way to victory as usual.

[IcePack]

I'm available to replace as well (if needed)

[lord voldemort]

Icepack is replacing Iron Butterfly

[lord voldemort]

Vote Count


No Lynch (2): Thorthoth, Samlen
DirtyDishSoap (1): Ragian
BuJaber(1): dakky21
Minister Masket (1): FloresDelMal
Thorthoth1): Pikanchion

Not Voting (10): DirtyDishSoap, madmitch, MudPuppy, BuJaber, Icepack, Hotshot53, skoffin, nickthesticks, Minister Masket, ZaBeast

With 16 alive it takes 9 to lynch.

There is no current deadline in place.

[lord voldemort]

nickthesticks has been prodded

[IcePack]

Give me tonight to read the pm and catch up on thread I'll start posting for real tomorrow, ty

[Samlen]

Onto other thoughts. Thor's remark on how all of the adversaries in the Hobbit were mostly independent is interesting. It'd be weird but the idea of a large amount of scum but each working independently from each other instead of one localized scum group might be a possibility.

So you're thinking along the lines of rotating the kill between the different scums without letting them talk to each other? Sounds like a broken mechanic (or at the very least, unconventionnal), but who knows?
I don't think that's what thort meant though.

I was thinking more separate scum groups with different abilities/agendas. Would be quite unconventional and pretty hard to balance so probably not.

[Ragian]

unvote my joke vote.

At this point, I'm keeping my eye on whoever says a lot without saying anything. There are a few candidates already. Also, I'd like to add that I'm out of town till tomorrow, so my activity might dwindle a bit till Thursday evening.