[CL7] Premier Division (1. LHDD - MVPs: Donche64, Samdemars)

[Lindax]

oh crap I didn't see that!

Tie-Breaker Rules:

If 2 or more clans end up with same amount of points their placement will be based on (in order):

Game Difference (LHDD edge likely)
Difference in head-to-head results (LHDD edge likely)
Difference in head-to-head game wins (LHDD edge likely)
Difference in head-to-head away game wins (if still more than 2 clans tie)
Difference in total away wins
Difference in total away game wins

so they changed it from last year????
I know that TOFU had been complaining about it.... But I thought their complaint was illegitimate.
Head to head should win over overall wins!

It did NOT change. We had a poll in the CDF forum and the majority wanted it to stay like this.

Lx

[benga]

think you guys already saw it, but from my point of view fna goes osa so 0 pts for lhdd here
now we face tofu, so maybe we get something here too

time change so fast, close knit and long forged groups rules the scene at the moment

[betiko]

think you guys already saw it, but from my point of view fna goes osa so 0 pts for lhdd here
now we face tofu, so maybe we get something here too

time change so fast, close knit and long forged groups rules the scene at the moment

yeah i definitely counted our home games as a win for you guys!
honestly, I didn't really look at OSA's other results... since we are running behind fallen and it's already going to be complicated to catch up on them.
Fallen is on the driver's seat, we've called shotgun, so we're trying to take that wheel before looking at the screaming passengers in the back.

y the way benga; did you notice hthat each time we hface in a league we win your home games and you guys win our home games? We should consider playing only away games in our CC6 matchup.

[betiko]

oh crap I didn't see that!

Tie-Breaker Rules:

If 2 or more clans end up with same amount of points their placement will be based on (in order):

Game Difference (LHDD edge likely)
Difference in head-to-head results (LHDD edge likely)
Difference in head-to-head game wins (LHDD edge likely)
Difference in head-to-head away game wins (if still more than 2 clans tie)
Difference in total away wins
Difference in total away game wins

so they changed it from last year????
I know that TOFU had been complaining about it.... But I thought their complaint was illegitimate.
Head to head should win over overall wins!

It did NOT change. We had a poll in the CDF forum and the majority wanted it to stay like this.

Lx

oh yeah it was the other way around... tofu had the head to head against ace and ace had a better GD...

Honestly, this is a tricky question, as I think it mostly depends on gaps.
Say team A and B end up with the same amount of points; team A has a better GD by a landslide and loses the head to head by 1 game.... I think team A would deserve more the title.
Now team A wins the GD by 1 game difference, and loses the head to head by 1 game difference... I think team B would deserve it more.

[rockfist]

Ok I'll bite on this:

"Dead I am the rat feast upon the cat." - Rob Zombie

I don't think TOFU is as dead as some presume, we aren't in the driver's seat or even the front seat but we are in the middle of the back seat leaning forward sticking our head between the seats.

Presuming that LHDD takes 3 from Fallen after 8 rounds it will be Fallen 24, LHDD 24. We should have between 22 and 25 (there are a number of matches that hang on a knife edge for us). If we are on 22 we are likely through. 23 is tough. 24 we somewhat control our own destiny. 25 (which is unlikely) and we do control our own destiny. I haven't looked where the tie-breaker would come down to. I expect we will be at 23 or 24 after 8 rounds.

After 8 rounds S&M should have between 18-21 points. They have some chance. They need to win that last point against us from R7. To win the two points that are up for grabs in their R8 match to be at 21. The 3-1 LHDD, Fallen Split would put them 3 behind both. They play Fallen in R10. If they sweep their other matches they'd beat Fallen. I don't think they (or anyone) can with the tiebreaker with LHDD, but if LHDD takes only 8/12 points in their final three matches S&M would beat LHDD under this scenario. S&M would also need TOFU to stumble, but by taking that final point from TOFU, TOFU would have at most 24 points after 8 rounds...supposing a worst case scenario for TOFU after 8 rounds TOFU would sit at 22, with S&M at 21. With S&M winning out and TOFU only winning 10/12, under this scenario S&M wins the league.

After 8 rounds OSA should have between 18-19 points. They have some (more remote) chance. They need win that last point that is up for grabs. To sweep us in R9 and sweep R10 & R11, which give them 31. They'd need the 3-1 split between LHDD and Fallen and for the two of them to win no more than 5 points in the last three rounds. They'd also need S&M to beat us for one point, but not score points against FOED, giving S&M 19 after 8 rounds. They'd then need S&M to score no more than 11 points in the last three rounds (preferably 4 against Fallen).

No offense to the other clans, but they are too far back and would have to climb over too many people ahead of them to have a realistic chance.

I'd say our schedule is probably the hardest in the last three matches. Fallen's is probably the easiest and LHDD's is the middle.

[betiko]

Ok I'll bite on this:

"Dead I am the rat feast upon the cat." - Rob Zombie

I don't think TOFU is as dead as some presume, we aren't in the driver's seat or even the front seat but we are in the middle of the back seat leaning forward sticking our head between the seats.

Presuming that LHDD takes 3 from Fallen after 8 rounds it will be Fallen 24, LHDD 24. We should have between 22 and 25 (there are a number of matches that hang on a knife edge for us). If we are on 22 we are likely through. 23 is tough. 24 we somewhat control our own destiny. 25 (which is unlikely) and we do control our own destiny. I haven't looked where the tie-breaker would come down to. I expect we will be at 23 or 24 after 8 rounds.

After 8 rounds S&M should have between 18-21 points. They have some chance. They need to win that last point against us from R7. To win the two points that are up for grabs in their R8 match to be at 21. The 3-1 LHDD, Fallen Split would put them 3 behind both. They play Fallen in R10. If they sweep their other matches they'd beat Fallen. I don't think they (or anyone) can with the tiebreaker with LHDD, but if LHDD takes only 8/12 points in their final three matches S&M would beat LHDD under this scenario. S&M would also need TOFU to stumble, but by taking that final point from TOFU, TOFU would have at most 24 points after 8 rounds...supposing a worst case scenario for TOFU after 8 rounds TOFU would sit at 22, with S&M at 21. With S&M winning out and TOFU only winning 10/12, under this scenario S&M wins the league.

After 8 rounds OSA should have between 18-19 points. They have some (more remote) chance. They need win that last point that is up for grabs. To sweep us in R9 and sweep R10 & R11, which give them 31. They'd need the 3-1 split between LHDD and Fallen and for the two of them to win no more than 5 points in the last three rounds. They'd also need S&M to beat us for one point, but not score points against FOED, giving S&M 19 after 8 rounds. They'd then need S&M to score no more than 11 points in the last three rounds (preferably 4 against Fallen).

No offense to the other clans, but they are too far back and would have to climb over too many people ahead of them to have a realistic chance.

I'd say our schedule is probably the hardest in the last three matches. Fallen's is probably the easiest and LHDD's is the middle.

bottom line... if we don't 3-1 fallen, we're all screwed. come cheer us up in our games against them! lol

[rockfist]

I've been peaking in on those games, frequently. I just haven't said anything.

[IcePack]

Ok I'll bite on this:

"Dead I am the rat feast upon the cat." - Rob Zombie

I don't think TOFU is as dead as some presume, we aren't in the driver's seat or even the front seat but we are in the middle of the back seat leaning forward sticking our head between the seats.

Presuming that LHDD takes 3 from Fallen after 8 rounds it will be Fallen 24, LHDD 24. We should have between 22 and 25 (there are a number of matches that hang on a knife edge for us). If we are on 22 we are likely through. 23 is tough. 24 we somewhat control our own destiny. 25 (which is unlikely) and we do control our own destiny. I haven't looked where the tie-breaker would come down to. I expect we will be at 23 or 24 after 8 rounds.

After 8 rounds S&M should have between 18-21 points. They have some chance. They need to win that last point against us from R7. To win the two points that are up for grabs in their R8 match to be at 21. The 3-1 LHDD, Fallen Split would put them 3 behind both. They play Fallen in R10. If they sweep their other matches they'd beat Fallen. I don't think they (or anyone) can with the tiebreaker with LHDD, but if LHDD takes only 8/12 points in their final three matches S&M would beat LHDD under this scenario. S&M would also need TOFU to stumble, but by taking that final point from TOFU, TOFU would have at most 24 points after 8 rounds...supposing a worst case scenario for TOFU after 8 rounds TOFU would sit at 22, with S&M at 21. With S&M winning out and TOFU only winning 10/12, under this scenario S&M wins the league.

After 8 rounds OSA should have between 18-19 points. They have some (more remote) chance. They need win that last point that is up for grabs. To sweep us in R9 and sweep R10 & R11, which give them 31. They'd need the 3-1 split between LHDD and Fallen and for the two of them to win no more than 5 points in the last three rounds. They'd also need S&M to beat us for one point, but not score points against FOED, giving S&M 19 after 8 rounds. They'd then need S&M to score no more than 11 points in the last three rounds (preferably 4 against Fallen).

No offense to the other clans, but they are too far back and would have to climb over too many people ahead of them to have a realistic chance.

I'd say our schedule is probably the hardest in the last three matches. Fallen's is probably the easiest and LHDD's is the middle.

I didn't mean to imply TOFU was without chance. In fact in our private area it was mentioned TOFU has really been heating it up near the end.
I haven't tracked S&M's path, but glad to see it here. They just seemed a bit far back to be able to realistically make a late push.
I haven't done calculations based on who is mathematically eliminated, just "likely".

[rockfist]

I didn't take it that way. I just remember last year we were counted out of CL and everyone had all but handed the trophy to ACE then we came and claimed it.

We had a rash of players take breaks and an influx of new players. Those players are contributing very well, but it takes some games to get used to a person's style and the situation took some time to gel. I think it has. We should be even stronger when some of our star players come back from breaks.

I don't think we have a high probability here, our failure to secure at least a 2-2 tie with you (Fallen) hurts. However, it would be ironic if we were to tie for first and then beat you on goal differential after last year and our desire to see that rule changed. For the record I would still like to see it changed, but since we all knew the rules going in, we would not consider it a tainted victory should that occur.

Again, I haven't gone through GD's and probably won't until/unless it looks likely to come into play, but a cursory glance shows we'd at least have a possibility of having a higher GD than you.

[betiko]

I didn't take it that way. I just remember last year we were counted out of CL and everyone had all but handed the trophy to ACE then we came and claimed it.

We had a rash of players take breaks and an influx of new players. Those players are contributing very well, but it takes some games to get used to a person's style and the situation took some time to gel. I think it has. We should be even stronger when some of our star players come back from breaks.

I don't think we have a high probability here, our failure to secure at least a 2-2 tie with you (Fallen) hurts. However, it would be ironic if we were to tie for first and then beat you on goal differential after last year and our desire to see that rule changed. For the record I would still like to see it changed, but since we all knew the rules going in, we would not consider it a tainted victory should that occur.

Again, I haven't gone through GD's and probably won't until/unless it looks likely to come into play, but a cursory glance shows we'd at least have a possibility of having a higher GD than you.

yeah too early to look into those sort of things.
But I'd sign a paper today saying that our last round with that LHDD-TOFU leaves us both with options for the title. Oh, and S&M. Fall vs S&M and LHDD vs TOFU is a hell of a final round.

[IcePack]

I didn't take it that way. I just remember last year we were counted out of CL and everyone had all but handed the trophy to ACE then we came and claimed it.

Oh I remember, it all came down to one game and is winning meant TOFU wins, and our losing would mean ACE getting it. We were out of the running but interesting how close it came last time

[rockfist]

We beat them by two points. I'm sure it did come down to your beating them, but it must have been in two games.

[IcePack]

We beat them by two points. I'm sure it did come down to your beating them, but it must have been in two games.

Last years details @ the end

viewtopic.php?f=442&t=207949&start=400#p4665381

[rockfist]

Yup that's two games. They needed you to lose so they could win and us to lose.

[benga]

don't think osa has a chance, just love to mess up others chance

nice finish guys

[betiko]

don't think osa has a chance, just love to mess up others chance

nice finish guys

don't go easy on the tofu benga!

[benga]

don't think osa has a chance, just love to mess up others chance

nice finish guys

don't go easy on the tofu benga!

tofu, fuj!

who loves tofu

too bad they ain't some meat

[rockfist]

I wrote earlier that we would be at 22-25 points after 8 rounds. I can now say that unless we lose a game where we have a solid lead it will be at worst 23. In one of the other two matches where it hangs by a single game for one more point it has also moved (slightly) in our favor.

Note of caution: I am an outsider in the games that are up in the air.

As for round 9:

Some of our games against OSA are not going very well. It will be difficult to win both matches, which we believed it would be going in. We look stronger in our home games than away.

I've looked at the games that LHDD and Fallen.

LHDD does seem to be struggling a bit against RET particularly at home.

Of the three clans Fallen looks to be having the best start to round 9, although I do see some paths where they could lose points.

They've got a 2-1 lead in their away games but RET has some decent leads in a couple of games there. Fallen clearly leads in CR and will likely win that. NW Passage seems about even. Fallen has an elimination in WWI Gallip, but in spite of that, RET has a pretty substantial territory lead (which matters with auto deploy) and Fallen has some weak players they need to protect. If they can survive a few rounds they will likely win, but if RET gets an elimination soon I expect them to turn that game.

[betiko]

I wrote earlier that we would be at 22-25 points after 8 rounds. I can now say that unless we lose a game where we have a solid lead it will be at worst 23. In one of the other two matches where it hangs by a single game for one more point it has also moved (slightly) in our favor.

Note of caution: I am an outsider in the games that are up in the air.

As for round 9:

Some of our games against OSA are not going very well. It will be difficult to win both matches, which we believed it would be going in. We look stronger in our home games than away.

I've looked at the games that LHDD and Fallen.

LHDD does seem to be struggling a bit against RET particularly at home.

Of the three clans Fallen looks to be having the best start to round 9, although I do see some paths where they could lose points.

They've got a 2-1 lead in their away games but RET has some decent leads in a couple of games there. Fallen clearly leads in CR and will likely win that. NW Passage seems about even. Fallen has an elimination in WWI Gallip, but in spite of that, RET has a pretty substantial territory lead (which matters with auto deploy) and Fallen has some weak players they need to protect. If they can survive a few rounds they will likely win, but if RET gets an elimination soon I expect them to turn that game.

I supposed you meant GON not ret.

well, honestly, against fall there is a small chance we might double win.
Home we are leading 3-1, we aen't looking too bad on DS but it's escalating... andwe killed a guy on montreal. Both rail maps look tied.
So we basically need to pull 2/4 ins an none of the 4 is leading FALL right now.
Away it's a different story, we seem to have turned around poison rome that is now munimum a tie. I'm in eurasia and ww2 europe, both pretty much ties.
Conquer rome looks like a sure win for them though, so 2-3 fallen and the remaining 3 still ties. So anything could happen in this away set, both clans still have chances to win it.... or tie.

our home set against GON is a real catastrophy, I'd almost sign right now for a tie. the away is kind of ok, but not a sure win.

[rockfist]

Yup meant GoN

From the TOFU perspective we definitely want the 3-1 and not a 2-2...I'm not sure if we want the 4-0...maybe.

4-0 would put it at 23 Fall, 25 LHDD (23-25) TOFU, after that round. I suspect Fall will score 3 or 4 against RET. We are most likely to score 2 against OSA, our away games are looking bad, I could see it being anywhere from 1 to 4 but if I had to bet I'd put it at 2. If LHDD scores 2 against GoN that would put it at Fall 26-27, LHDD 27, TOFU 24-29 (most likely 26), with two rounds to go.

I know I am very wishy washy about what our score would be, but I'm in some of the unpredictable games and I've been following some of the others for weeks and I just can't give you a good answer. Some of them may come down to 1 or 2 rolls.

I guess I'd cheer for the 4-0 since we will have a shot at LHDD here so we have an opportunity to make up ground against you. We have no opportunity to make up ground on Fallen anymore.

[IcePack]

Don't talk to me about poison Rome

[betiko]

so just had a quick look:

after round 7:

-FALL 23pts
-LHDD 21pts (counting the last game vs osa as a loss)
-TOFU 20pts, maybe... (counted a win vs s&m, no doubt, and the away set against OLE looks like a draw... there is a sure win on route 66, and something that looks like a loss on cricket... 4-4 most likely)

round 8:

-lhdd and fallen face to face... still too early to call anything. On our home set it looks like the draw is pretty secured though... o the away set, 3-3, ww2 europe starts looking slightly fallen and eurasia is still pretty much a draw
-tofu has a secured win on the away set vs MMM, and is winning 3-2 on the. things are looking good on all 3 remaining games, that's another win, no doubt

-> fall 23 to 26
-> lhdd 22 to 25
->tofu 24

round 9:
-fall will win easy its home set against ret; and i'm pretty sure the away set is decided as a draw
-lhdd can get a draw if they're lucky on their home set against GON, and should get a draw on the worse case on away games
-tofu should draw at best on OSA's home set, and I think should get at least a draw on their home set

->FALL 26 to 29
->LHDD 23 to 28
->TOFU 25 to 27

[rockfist]

This is my update as I see things (others may see them differently):

After 8 rounds the score is likely to be:

LHDD 24 (presuming a 3-1 split with Fallen, which is not guaranteed however they should do no worse than 2-2)

Fallen 24 (presuming a 1-3 split with LHDD, best case for them is 2-2, it is possible that they could go 0-4)

TOFU 24 (we will win our remaining point against S&M, but will almost certainly tie our remaining match against OLE, 4 points is all but assured against MMM)

Round 9 is shaping up to be a tough one for LHDD & TOFU. I suspect both clans will secure 2 points in R9, while Fallen is likely to secure 3 points.

Round 10 matches for LHDD & TOFU are too early to tell. Fallen looks to be off to a good start in their home matches against S&M, but is struggling a bit in their away matches...still to early to tell a lot there, but I can see more about those games than I can about LHDD's or TOFU's (baring those that I am in which I won't speak about now).

Fallen has an easier match in R11 in that they play OLE and not another top contender, while LHDD & TOFU play each other in R11. LHDD and TOFU will clearly be pulling for OLE in that match, while Fallen will want a 2-2 split or at worst a 3-1 split in the R11 match between LHDD and TOFU. Presuming they do decently well in their R10 matches, either clan going 4-0 in that last match is likely to win, because:

A brief look at the goal differential has it somewhere around +36-40 for LHDD heading into the R10 games, +30-34 for TOFU, and +26-30 for Fallen. Fallen might catch TOFU for goal differential or TOFU might (in a bit of a stretch) catch LHDD, but Fallen will not catch LHDD in goal differential unless LHDD collapses, in which case it won't matter anyway. With the 3-1 LHDD-Fallen split it would likely be 38 to 30-34 to 28.

Fallen needs to run up the score as much as possible in their R11 match.

[rockfist]

Yeah I kinda have it right in the middle of Betiko's range after 9 rounds:

Fallen 27
LHDD 26
TOFU 26

[Lindax]

Results (R1 to R9) and standings (R1 to R8) are updated and posted on the first page:

Results

Standings

Lx