jackal31 wrote:
(and dont bother giving a numerical calculation, use common sense!)




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jackal31 wrote:
(and dont bother giving a numerical calculation, use common sense!)
jackal31 wrote:Woodruff wrote:jackal31 wrote:Woodruff wrote:jackal31 wrote:I am not complaining about losing my eagle, or my hat, or my rank, ....... I am talking about losing my ass on a great strategy on being dice screwed.
But that happens to all of us. Because the dice behave the way they should. That's my point. You've still got a tremendous rank, which clearly shows that your dice quite simply can't be THAT bad.
NO....what it shows is that in most cases my strategy is very good to have such a great rank. So when the dice dont "work out", then my rank goes down!
Ah yes, of course! When you win, it is because your strategy is very good and when you lose, it is because of the dice. Your strategies are so superior that it's just beyond the pale that you could lose for a reason other than the dice and it's beyond the pale that you could possibly win because YOU GOT GOOD DICE. As I said way back early in this thread...get the dice analyzer and use it instead of your general recollection, and you'll amazingly find that the dice you get simply aren't that consistently bad because you WOULD NOT have the rank that you do if they were. It would not be possible.
Woodruff.....thanks for misunderstanding most of what I said.....I am selecting this in particular to show your ignorance. And yes, I am taking a shot at you because you seem to twist what people say. Just as you twisted the analogy I gave.
jackal31 wrote:I have currently finished a game where the strategy was to take a bonus and push the opponent under 12 terr. Now, when I have 18 and the opponent has 11, the odds of him taking 2 terr with only 3 deployed are slim, but to have him take 3 terr, then take 4 terr, and me lose 10 guys to a defense of 1 all while not having a cash, then there is no strategy to that. So my strategy went out the window because of the "one-sidedness." Again, what are the odds of that happening? (and dont bother giving a numerical calculation, use common sense!)
jackal31 wrote:I never said my strategy ALWAYS brings victory, but when in EVERY game I am facing choices of killing someone and having to second guess a 20v1v1v1v1, thats when its time to hang it up. When I face that in every freaking game because there are "so many people playing and everything must balance eventually," thats when something needs to happen. I should not be the "dice balancer." That just proves there are threads and I have fallen victim to the "balancing" of the dice.
jackal31 wrote:Again, CC probably wont care if I stay or go, but I can tell you, my argument is strong if you actually read it.
jackal31 wrote:Dont argue the pettyness of each statement as you seem fit.
jackal31 wrote:I dont come here to argue every little dice roll I dont get. I have been a member for nearly 4 years, so I know what to expect out of the dice when they arent "fair" and I have had my fair share of poor dice too. I think that speaks for my experience. But that is no reason to accept the question of attacking 20v1v1v1v1 and not winning because though the odds of it actually happening exist, they just dont happen.
Community Guidelines wrote:Be nice or leave
It's fine if you don't like this site or the way it is run...find another one with better rules, start another one and make your own rules, abuse another one and try to get them to change their rules, but don't complain about the rules here.
Commander9 wrote:I won't start to complain about how some people are unlucky with the dice, but I can definitely say that after the change, the dice started to act not exactly as they're supposed to (In my humble opinion anyways). The dice now can go much more extreme and you will very rarely find your "average" dice. Instead, dice go to extremities - now I don't take for a granted a 14 v 2 or 8 v 1 as win as it's a quite often loss, but also you sometimes just get insanely good dice.
In reality, from what I've seen (and know about the mathematical odds), the dice usually don't go to extremities all that often, but it seems like that's not the case anymore. Right now, it seems like the best way to still win some points once in a while is to either play team games with a good bunch of player, or play fs/big esc/farming games. If you don't play those games all that often, it's quite hard to move up. Anyways, just my 2 cents.
trinicardinal wrote:what are the odds of winning the lottery? Yet on a regular basis someone who has faced those same odd wins... Ppl seem to forget that just because it is extremely unlikely for something to happen doesn't mean that it cannot happen... I get horrible dice runs... I change strategy to suit. Think about it....
trinicardinal wrote:what are the odds of winning the lottery? Yet on a regular basis someone who has faced those same odd wins... Ppl seem to forget that just because it is extremely unlikely for something to happen doesn't mean that it cannot happen... I get horrible dice runs... I change strategy to suit. Think about it....
tdans wrote:trinicardinal wrote:what are the odds of winning the lottery? Yet on a regular basis someone who has faced those same odd wins... Ppl seem to forget that just because it is extremely unlikely for something to happen doesn't mean that it cannot happen... I get horrible dice runs... I change strategy to suit. Think about it....
say's the gray man........ you an only change strategy so much man..
InsomniaRed wrote:trinicardinal wrote:what are the odds of winning the lottery? Yet on a regular basis someone who has faced those same odd wins... Ppl seem to forget that just because it is extremely unlikely for something to happen doesn't mean that it cannot happen... I get horrible dice runs... I change strategy to suit. Think about it....
Oh geez don't go and compare our lovely intensity cube system to the lottery...that's just ridiculous. Plus as long as you're playing a game that requires skill and not dice, then you should be fine. Do I complain when I get bad dice on Doodle Earth and end up losing? Of course I do, but I know it was a 50/50 shot and I took that chance because that map doesn't need skill to be won (plus it was the only speed game up, and I am too lazy to make my own)
Commander9 wrote:I won't start to complain about how some people are unlucky with the dice, but I can definitely say that after the change, the dice started to act not exactly as they're supposed to (In my humble opinion anyways). The dice now can go much more extreme and you will very rarely find your "average" dice. Instead, dice go to extremities - now I don't take for a granted a 14 v 2 or 8 v 1 as win as it's a quite often loss, but also you sometimes just get insanely good dice.
In reality, from what I've seen (and know about the mathematical odds), the dice usually don't go to extremities all that often, but it seems like that's not the case anymore. Right now, it seems like the best way to still win some points once in a while is to either play team games with a good bunch of player, or play fs/big esc/farming games. If you don't play those games all that often, it's quite hard to move up. Anyways, just my 2 cents.
trinicardinal wrote:tdans wrote:trinicardinal wrote:what are the odds of winning the lottery? Yet on a regular basis someone who has faced those same odd wins... Ppl seem to forget that just because it is extremely unlikely for something to happen doesn't mean that it cannot happen... I get horrible dice runs... I change strategy to suit. Think about it....
say's the gray man........ you an only change strategy so much man..
True. But don't leave you strategy the same (which is what the OP seems to have done) and blame the dice for everything (oh wait that's easier nvm)
Master Fenrir wrote:trinicardinal wrote:tdans wrote:trinicardinal wrote:what are the odds of winning the lottery? Yet on a regular basis someone who has faced those same odd wins... Ppl seem to forget that just because it is extremely unlikely for something to happen doesn't mean that it cannot happen... I get horrible dice runs... I change strategy to suit. Think about it....
say's the gray man........ you an only change strategy so much man..
True. But don't leave you strategy the same (which is what the OP seems to have done) and blame the dice for everything (oh wait that's easier nvm)
There is no way to change the strategy in no spoil team games. It's not like esc where you're dropping a cash and it occurs to you, "Hmm, 8 vs. 2 fails 80% of the time now. I had better make that a 10." You have very few troops to use, so there is no adjustment that can be made besides the "stack an extra round or two strategy," which I have tried and I assume Jackal has tried, and more often than not, the enemy goes 6 vs. 9 to trim your stack, and conquers advancing a 4 or something ridiculous. You should probably ask Jackal how he's tried to compensate for the seeming dice shift before making foolish assumptions. (oh wait that's easier nvm)
trinicardinal wrote:just because it is extremely unlikely for something to happen doesn't mean that it cannot happen.
...every once in a great while, “when pure luck occasionally leads to a lopsided preponderance of hits from some particular direction ... a noticeable jiggle occurs.” We notice the improbable directional jiggle but ignore the zillions of meaningless and counteracting collisions.
In the Middle Land of our ancient evolutionary environment, which I introduced in Part 1 of this column last month, our brains never evolved a probability network, and thus our folk intuitions are ill equipped to deal with many aspects of the modern world. Although our intuitions can be useful in dealing with other people and social relationships (which evolved as common and important for a social primate species such as ours when we were struggling to survive in the harsh environs of the Paleolithic), they are misleading when it comes to such probabilistic problems as gambling...
...Extraordinary events do not always require extraordinary causes. Given enough time, they can happen by chance. Knowing this, Mlodinow says, “we can improve our skill at decision making and tame some of the biases that lead us to make poor judgments and poor choices ... and we can learn to judge decisions by the spectrum of potential outcomes they might have produced rather than by the particular result that actually occurred.” Embrace the random. Find the pattern. Know the difference.
ljex wrote:wait so to increase score you have to play games that have more skill (opponents have lower skill)? Who would have ever guessed that...
Leehar wrote:trinicardinal wrote:just because it is extremely unlikely for something to happen doesn't mean that it cannot happen.
Agreed, however, I think what everyone is saying is that those occurrences seem to be occurring more often.
Obviously we can say that the dice even out over time, but you also tend to notice an 8v2 loss or a 4v12 win in the earlier stages of the game when those rolls have a large say in the progress on the game, and the significance decreases at the end of the game where you're just clearing up.
Obviously a lot of this is just opinion, but I feel that sometimes even the defensive dice are better than should be expected when you have 20/30 stacks only taking 3 or 4 territories of 1/2/3 troops both for yourself and the opponent, and it seems even with 20v15 odds it's rare to be able to guarantee victory. I think this just comes back to what everyone says that they can no longer be comfortable with 8v2's 14v1's etc. They should occur very rarely, but they seem to be occurring often enough as to be noticeable by most, which is a concern, whether it is based on factual evidence or not.
Darwins_Bane wrote:Welcome to the world of Mod dice, my friend.
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