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When are the dice going to be fixed?

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Re: When are the dice going to be fixed?

Postby e_i_pi on Sun Jul 05, 2009 9:58 pm

Georgerx7di wrote:
jammyjames wrote:yeah i will admit to all of the admin staff, the dice kill the overall experience of conquerclub, no way in hell would you lose some of the rolls we do, simultaneously in real life, and whats it with 3 vs 3, its almost impossible to win... i mean wtf!!

Run the numbers buddy, 3v3 is less than 50%, don't roll 3v3, its a stupid decision. You only have 2 attacking armies trying to kill 3. Plus the odds are less than 50% for you to kill 2 of them. It's the same way in real life. Break out some dice and a piece of paper and try it 50 or 60 times, you'll see that you don't win very often.

No, he's talking about the bogus suggestion in Sugs and Bugs - some guy wants an option for 3v3 battles instead of 3v2, adding that it would be great for the site because there would be more build games. Don't ask, I don't know either man...

Anyhow, in regards to jammyjames' comment "you wouldn't get this in real life" - no, you wouldn't get it in real life, because you don't roll 200 dice a day in real life. I dunno, maybe you do, perhaps you head Hasbro's Dice Randomness Testing Division, and you sit there rolling dice all day, or better still, you sit in your cushy office telling your underlings to roll dice all day. In that case, you'd have a point. Otherwise, get out your baking tray and a straw.
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Re: When are the dice going to be fixed?

Postby tryagain on Mon Jul 06, 2009 12:15 am

In a 7 vs 1 situation, the chances of losing the first four rolls to reduce it to a 3 vs 1 situation are 0.3403 to the power 4 = 0.0134 or in laymen's terms 1 in 74. Seems to happen a lot more often than that.

The dice analyser needs to be more of a precision tool.

e.g. Do the dice come in streaks more often than is statistically possible? Do the dice favour the defender when the defender only has one troop?

I'm still suspicious.
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Re: When are the dice going to be fixed?

Postby mmjones on Wed Aug 05, 2009 11:58 pm

Personally I think these dice are a nice bit fairer than dice in the real world. I was playing RISK with some friends and friends of friends the other day, and I swear this one girl had special dice-rolling powers. I mean, I defeated her anyway, but she wiped out 12 of my armies with I think 2 of hers or something like that. And she had lucky dice for most of the game, actually, though it didn't save her.

It's probably just me being paranoid, though. It wouldn't be *too* difficult to sneak trick dice into a casual RISK game, but then if she'd been serious enough to do that she should have prepared a halfway decent strategy. Incidentally, the person she attacked for most of the game (with her frighteningly good dice) ended up winning the game. Luck of the dice can turn a game, but I think a good player can win in spite of being unlucky, if they know what they're doing. Or if they're just lucky with cards later...
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Re: When are the dice going to be fixed?

Postby Jace22 on Sat Aug 08, 2009 5:33 pm

Serbia wrote:People, please! Let's stay on topic. The question is quoted below...

diverclint wrote:The dice ruin the game!
When are you going to fix them ?


And the answer is, as always, "Tomorrow."

and as we all know, tomorrow never comes
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Re: When are the dice going to be fixed?

Postby oVo on Sat Aug 08, 2009 6:06 pm

Maybe spaying the dice can solve this escalating problem.
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Re: When are the dice going to be fixed?

Postby Timminz on Sun Aug 09, 2009 12:14 am

The question still remains. When will we finally get the fixed dice we so desperately deserve?
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Re: When are the dice going to be fixed?

Postby rliles on Sun Aug 09, 2009 3:31 pm

diverclint wrote:The dice ruin the game!
When are you going to fix them ?

the dice need to be better especally for the speed assassin players im not saying perfect 1 day i am capt the next corp
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Re: When are the dice going to be fixed?

Postby captainwalrus on Sun Aug 09, 2009 4:31 pm

Why is this in the strategy sub-forum?
We need a "General Complaints" sub-forum in general descussion just for threads like these.
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Re: When are the dice going to be fixed?

Postby PLAYER57832 on Sun Aug 09, 2009 6:47 pm

diverclint wrote:The dice ruin the game!
When are you going to fix them ?

They already are, didn't you know .... they are fixed so that everyone except you get fair and reasonable dice.
8-)


Of course, Georgerx7di already beat me to the real answer
Georgerx7di wrote:Let this be the last word on dice. Everyone who plays more than 40 or 50 games, ends up getting the same dice. People who complain that they get bad dice all the time are full of shit. We all get the same dice. Some people are just too arrogant to see it. Why do I say arrogant? Because they think that they should have done better, or that they're current accomplishments are despite bad dice, and that they are much better than their record shows.

This is total bullshit. Anyone with a dice analyzer, or an understanding of probability, or even an understanding of human nature can understand people think they get worse dice than others. They are lying to themselves.


p.s. If you want a game with no luck, you can play chess. In which case can spend the rest of your life studying the game, and never win 1 game against a grand master. Why we like a little probability in our game, makes us feel we are a little bit better than we really are. : )
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Re: When are the dice going to be fixed?

Postby Paddy The Cat on Mon Aug 10, 2009 12:42 am

lolz

dice are even

though i find it annoying when i lose 10v3 at a critical point in a game (like an esc. elimination), and then in a 1v1 vs a cook i was every single roll for the first 5 rounds =(

timing is everything ;) :P
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Re: When are the dice going to be fixed?

Postby Royal Panda on Mon Aug 10, 2009 6:57 am

rliles wrote:
diverclint wrote:The dice ruin the game!
When are you going to fix them ?

the dice need to be better especally for the speed assassin players im not saying perfect 1 day i am capt the next corp


If this had been a question, you just answered it yourself. One day you're a captain, the next a corp...that is BECAUSE you play speed assassin, on doodle earth even, which is almost completely reliant on luck.
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Re: When are the dice going to be fixed?

Postby owyn999 on Mon Aug 10, 2009 10:01 am

As much as I have seen here, games where dice seem to rule the game, that is what happens from time to time in any game of this sort. In fact I played a live strategy game recently where for the first 5 full rounds I couldn't get a roll to save my self.

although I wouldn't mind seeing Conquer club use Dice-O-Matic, as if that would be used people would still whine but we can point them to this video to show that the dice tossing is as random as you will ever get... Or maybe to create our own version as was done at a competing site. It could. at least of a little while shut the folks up about "the dice are not random, blarg" I have complained in the past but I have noticed that as everyone here I go through good spells and bad spells and when I've hit a bad spell I usually end my turn and hope I survive to a good spell
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Re: When are the dice going to be fixed?

Postby deutsches risk on Mon Aug 10, 2009 6:04 pm

Have no idea whether there is something wrong with the dice, but when you loose (which I did) 17 armies and your opponent 0, you tend to question the "randomness" of it all...
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Re: When are the dice going to be fixed?

Postby PLAYER57832 on Mon Aug 10, 2009 7:10 pm

deutsches risk wrote:Have no idea whether there is something wrong with the dice, but when you loose (which I did) 17 armies and your opponent 0, you tend to question the "randomness" of it all...

You might try reviewing what a random curve is, then.

When there are over 1,000,000 dice rolls a day ... such "strange anomolies" become pretty common.
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Re: When are the dice going to be fixed?

Postby Georgerx7di on Tue Aug 11, 2009 1:50 am

When is this going to be moved. There are 20 threads bitching about dice in GD. This is the strategy forum, whinning has no place in here.
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Re: When are the dice going to be fixed?

Postby EvilCookie on Tue Aug 11, 2009 10:21 am

Statistically, anything is possible, even losing 1000 armies to one. Despite the small chance, it CAN happen. When there's so many people playing this game, and rolling dice, some are going to get unbelievable rolls.

And with every horrible roll YOU get, the other person just got an amazingly good roll. How come we don't see those posted here?

Don't expect to win your rolls. Expect randomness.
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Re: When are the dice going to be fixed?

Postby stahrgazer on Tue Aug 11, 2009 12:46 pm

e_i_pi wrote:
1v2 is pointless in every situation.



*scratches head*
Pointless? Try, impossible, as in the site does not allow attacks when the attacker has no dice that could sit on the terr IF the dice roll went his way. (You've been on CC how long, pi? :lol: )
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Re: When are the dice going to be fixed?

Postby barterer2002 on Tue Aug 11, 2009 4:41 pm

pi is talking dice not armies
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Re: When are the dice going to be fixed?

Postby EvilCookie on Thu Aug 13, 2009 8:56 am

the chances of winning 1v2 is slightly over 1 in 10. GL :D
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Re: When are the dice going to be fixed?

Postby Bellman1010 on Thu Aug 13, 2009 4:03 pm

diverclint wrote:The dice ruin the game!
When are you going to fix them ?



I agree. I just lost 11 times in a row. In the 30 years of playing Risk I have never lost that many times in a row. This is not a random thing It happens more times then it should.
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Re: When are the dice going to be fixed?

Postby Timminz on Thu Aug 13, 2009 4:24 pm

Bellman1010 wrote:This is not a random thing


Yes it is.

Edit to include- Why was this moved to GD? Shouldn't it have been merged with the other complaint thread?
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Re: When are the dice going to be fixed?

Postby kanunisultaneren on Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:12 am

Yes there is something really but really wrong with that dice program. Most of the times the dices come really unbelievable and f*ck the game. Even in two player games when dices decide who the winner is, it would not please the winner also. Most of us have been playing the game RISK for a long time(years), and we know lucky dice, unlucky dice; but ive never seen dices like this in my whole life. If people of cc is not fucking with us, there is a serious problem and it should be fixed.
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Re: When are the dice going to be fixed?

Postby Timminz on Fri Aug 14, 2009 9:11 am

kanunisultaneren wrote:there is a serious problem and it should be fixed.

I agree completely. The problem is that no one can come up with a sure-fire way to fix the faulty perceptions that some people have.
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Re: When are the dice going to be fixed?

Postby wcaclimbing on Fri Aug 14, 2009 9:24 am

Just thought this quote would help this discussion a bit:

Twill wrote:Tests that have been run on random.org data:
* Frequency Test: Monobit
* Frequency Test: Block
* Runs Test
* Test for the Longest Runs of Ones in a Block
* Binary Matrix Rank Test
* Discrete Fourier Transform (Spectral Test)
* Non-Overlapping Template Matching Test
* Overlapping Template Matching Test
* Maurer's Universal Statistical Test
* Linear Complexity Test
* Serial Test
* Approximate Entropy Test
* Cumulative Sums Test
* Random Excursions Test
* Random Excursions Variant Test
* A chi-square test
* A test of runs above and below the median
* A reverse arrangements test
* An overlapping sums test
* A binary rank test for 32×32 matrices

The document pluto linked to is 107 pages of graduate level mathematician thesis work proving the randomness of random.org

I personally started running Magdoogles battery of tests but our dice file was too big and crashed my computer so I didn't try again [-X

And the M guy isn't THE DEFINITIVE SOURCE for random stuff...the NIST battery of tests (provided by the ever so efficient US gov't) is just as highly respected and incorporates some of Mdoodle's tests.

Random.org passed all of those tests.

If you need visual aids:

Random but not "realistically random" should be debunked by this:
Image which shows the output of all the files are relatively evenly distributed within expected random variation. If the dice weren't "realistically" random, the tops of the different colour bars wouldn't come so close to matching.

If you'd rather us use a pseudo-random number generator, without spending millions of dollars (because we all know we're ROLLING in cash charging what we do) we could always use the built in rand () function in PHP...but then we'd get something like the image on the right...
Image
On the left is random.org...one seems a little more random than the other, no?

Granted, these have been provided by random.org...but I have personally watched some of the dice's most ardent critics (who are actually mathematicians) run analyses on the dice and come up with the same conclusion.

You roll thousands and thousands of dice here. Hulmey, you have personally probably rolled more than 50,000 dice here (762 games, assuming 10 rounds per game, 3 rolls per round, 2 dice per roll...at a conservative guess). How many do you think you have rolled in real life?

Yes, you WILL see odd combinations and streaks here but you also play a LOT more games and roll a LOT more dice meaning you a re a LOT more likely to see them.

Again, if anyone can give me a test they want me to run on the file, please, do send it to me, I'd be happy to run it for you to prove once and for all that the dice are random.
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Re: When are the dice going to be fixed?

Postby PLAYER57832 on Mon Aug 17, 2009 1:40 pm

The real problem is that some people's definition of random is they never, ever lose more than 1/2 of any rolls.
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