Doc_Brown wrote:If I'm figuring out whether it's worth trying to take someone out or if I'm instead likely to weaken both him and myself to make us easy for someone else to kill, I generally shoot for >80% odds on any one string of attacks in escalating terminator games. If I have to split up my armies and I have at least one of those in the 50-60% range, I'll tend to give it a pass. On the other hand, if I can look at the board and say with reasonable certainty that someone else is going to take out the player in question anyway and I have a reasonable shot at him (>40%), I'm probably better off trying to take him out myself. As everyone else said, it really depends. Weigh the expected rewards against what happens if you fall a bit short and figure out what works for you. As I play more types of games, I'm finding that different levels of risk are more reasonable for different types of games. I think you just have to play enough games to figure out what works for you.
There are certain situations where only one course of action is 'correct'. For example, consider the 3 on 1 (2 attacking dice on 1 defending dice): Should you use it to break a bonus, re-take a bonus, complete a bonus, eliminate a player, take a card...?
I haven't got the energy to got into in detail (for it would take an essay to detail all the different situations) but, in general, there is a correct move for each situation...
The best way to learn is to try and hook up with a good player. Soon enough you'll be getting gamechat messages saying (for example) "Why didn't you deploy 3 to xxxxx and 4 to yyyyy and attack in this order d,e,f,g instead of e,f,g,d..you wasted a throw due to..." Painful though this is, it is the best way to improve at the exact element of Risk you are concerned with in this thread.