Streaky Dice Question

[donkeymile]

Why are the dice so streaky?

A simple question ..... almost EVERYONE talks about how streaky the dice are ... falling 500 points in a day or 2 is not unheard of and pretty much common place ... NOTHING to do with bad strategy ... just streaky dice ... so ......

WHY??? A simple question -

[Woodruff]

Why are the dice so streaky?

The nature of "random" means that streaks will (or will not) happen.

[natty dread]

Oh like there already wasn't at least 3 threads about the dice? You couldn't have posted in some of them instead of starting another one?

Anyway, Woodruff is right. Streaks are something that is inherent to randomness. You can't have one without the other. If you want dice that are random, they will have streaks.

[donkeymile]

I wasn't complaining about the dice - thus the reason I didn't post in the other threads.

I agree that randomness = streaks .... if you were the only one rolling consistently

What I don't get is why they are so streaky when so many are throwing at the same time ... thats the part that defies the logic behind this argument.

[Woodruff]

I wasn't complaining about the dice - thus the reason I didn't post in the other threads.

I agree that randomness = streaks .... if you were the only one rolling consistently

What I don't get is why they are so streaky when so many are throwing at the same time ... thats the part that defies the logic behind this argument.

Actually, how many are throwing at the same time is irrelevant. Let me try to explain:

Case 1: One person is rolling the dice only, and that person would pull the next numbers in the sequence ("the sequence" being the random selection of points in the file, of course).
Case 2: Hundreds of people are rolling the dice at the same time. They are pulling numbers in the sequence as they need them, meaning that nobody is grabbing many numbers "sequentially in the sequence" (gads, I hated to write that).

In either case, it is just as possible to have a streak. Neither of those cases is going to be more or less prone to streakiness.

[JelleR]

Woodruff,

you are my hero. You should be a teacher, your patience is outstanding. And I mean this in a very positive way.

[Woodruff]

Woodruff,
you are my hero. You should be a teacher, your patience is outstanding. And I mean this in a very positive way.

First of all, thank you. Secondly, it's interesting that you should say that (have a look at my profile).

[JelleR]

Haha wow. Well, it does make alot of sense.

[JoshyBoy]

Why are the dice so streaky?

The nature of "random" means that streaks will (or will not) happen.

Amen brother, amen.

[donkeymile]

So 'random' huh - okay then .... why do the long bad dice streaks last so long and the good ones don't? And I'm not talking about single events or even single games or even for that matter, single days of playing. I have experienced numerous times bad streaks lasting weeks and have NEVER experienced good dice streaks lasting anywhere near that long.

I'm currently in a 700-800 point dump and I have generally brutal dice while my opponents are experiencing odd defying dice on a consisitent basis.

To say that I just don't remember the good dice streaks is erroneous, because I actually do and can name the better ones I've had - and it in no way compares to the bad streaks.

There is absolutely something wrong with the system (and part of it is the rank point system) and the fact that a number of old-timers have announced they are leaving because of it, and a number of others have privately told me so means a lot. I have never experienced so much difficulty taking a single troop than I have since the new dice system was implemented. It in no way mirrors what you would see in real life.

[Commander62890]

Maybe streaky dice aren't all bad.

If the dice are streakier than they should be, then you have achieved a higher score than you would have had the dice been random.

So maybe there's some benefits to streaky dice... some would find it fun to fluctuate 500 points in a day.

My score has stayed about the same for the past month or two, and I've been in 30-50 games the whole time. It's boring!

For the record, I have no issues with the dice and am not concerned with figuring out whether or not they are more streaky than real dice.

As for your theory that bad dice streaks last longer than good ones... that's bullshit, and the fact that you think that will result in no one taking your complaints seriously.

[donkeymile]

I'm not the only one who KNOWS the bad streaks outlast the good ones - some of the others have already posted long threads and left - and others have just left

call it bullshit - call it what you want - this is about maybe the 10th time in 2-3 years that my dice have been this drastic resulting in major drops so I DO KNOW that it is true.

I don't really care if you believe it or not to be honest. My experience has been about 10 percent great dice - about 60 percent fair dice and 30 percent bad. I don't buy the random thing (and many others don't either) because realistically you'd have long 'good' dice streaks as well as bad and I haven't talked to anyone yet who proposes that they're good dice have ever lasted that long.

It is what it is .... and its the reason many have been leaving ...

[donkeymile]

By Chariot of Fire - couldn't have said it better myself
"He keeps his hat because we simply avoid giving him any troops in team games in case he gets tempted to try a roll.

lol, this was f'in priceless. The sad thing is it's not far from the truth. I've known Pedro for years and I've never known anyone come even close to the consistent failures that he encounters with the dice - to the extent where in a lot of games he plays the role of deployer whilst hiding in a safe corner.

And for sure the dice have changed - the past six or seven months have been a mockery in so many games that I've lost count. For those of you who have lives and just make the occasional roll you may not notice it, but when one is on 24/7 and sees the outcome of every roll in every game then it becomes very, very apparent. Strategy simply flies out the window.

So Pedro's not alone in his disdain for how things have gone (I'm reluctant to use the word 'progressed' here) and when seasoned stalwarts such as he start to leave the site then I'm sure it'll be just the thin end of the wedge. I actually quit myself at the beginning of Jan until some inconsiderate bastard paid my premium!"

[natty dread]

I'm not the only one who KNOWS the bad streaks outlast the good ones - some of the others have already posted long threads and left - and others have just left

call it bullshit - call it what you want - this is about maybe the 10th time in 2-3 years that my dice have been this drastic resulting in major drops so I DO KNOW that it is true.

I don't really care if you believe it or not to be honest. My experience has been about 10 percent great dice - about 60 percent fair dice and 30 percent bad. I don't buy the random thing (and many others don't either) because realistically you'd have long 'good' dice streaks as well as bad and I haven't talked to anyone yet who proposes that they're good dice have ever lasted that long.

It is what it is .... and its the reason many have been leaving ...

You are the only one who is claiming to have more bad dice than good dice. If you're so sure of it, let's see some dice analyzer results.

[Woodruff]

So 'random' huh - okay then .... why do the long bad dice streaks last so long and the good ones don't? And I'm not talking about single events or even single games or even for that matter, single days of playing. I have experienced numerous times bad streaks lasting weeks and have NEVER experienced good dice streaks lasting anywhere near that long.

Interesting...I can honestly say that I have not once experienced a good or bad streak that even lasted one full login, never mind days or weeks long. And no offense, but I also find it unlikely that anyone else has experienced such a thing for weeks at a time.

[jpreno]

I love reading these discussions.


Three discussion points for those that "know" there is a streakiness that screws them:

1. If you know this, you should be able to use it to your advantage.
2. Are you willing to put money on your claim? I'll bet you find a lot of takers.
3. Prove it scientifically. A simple experiment could be as follows:
a. State your hypothesis, such as "I am more likely to lose 3 rolls in a row, than win 3 in a row"
b. Define how long you'll measure for--say all of your own 3v2 attacks in the next 10 games
c. Record every single attack for those 10 games, and the results, in order
d. at the end of those 10 games, find all the "streaks" of 3 wins/losses and count them
e. How much are they off by?
f. You should account for some statistical error--if the results are close, do it again (and again, and again). If you get a 10:1 ratio of losses to wins, then I think you have proven your point.
Science is wonderful.

[donkeymile]

there are a number of players who DO use this to their advantage .... they stop playing when the streak begins to hurt them ...

I'm just not willing to do that because I want to play a game and there are only certain times I can play them .... at any given time, mathematically, I am just as likely to lose as I am to win - this is obvious ....

it's also obvious that there is a streakiness (indicative of true random) that somehow defies the 'odds' and concentrates on bad streaks. Lots of people see this - and lots of higher ranks see it too.

Even when I'm playing a game and my dice are crazy good and I'm winning 6v13's and crap like that I apologize when my opponent is losing 7v3'3 and 10v2's etc., because it really sucks when strategy has so little to do with what you play.

Anyway - it matters not to me if some of you don't see it or debate it - because it's obviously there - and its only been relatively recently because things were actually better when I first joined.

[ben79]

Why are the dice so streaky?

A simple question ..... almost EVERYONE talks about how streaky the dice are ... falling 500 points in a day or 2 is not unheard of and pretty much common place ... NOTHING to do with bad strategy ... just streaky dice ... so ......

WHY??? A simple question -

i drop from 2350 to 1400 in 4 days playing the same old games as usual, losing about 90 % of all my games in the past 4 days .... random ... maybe, not

[pascalleke]

Why are the dice so streaky?

A simple question ..... almost EVERYONE talks about how streaky the dice are ... falling 500 points in a day or 2 is not unheard of and pretty much common place ... NOTHING to do with bad strategy ... just streaky dice ... so ......

WHY??? A simple question -

i drop from 2350 to 1400 in 4 days playing the same old games as usual, losing about 90 % of all my games in the past 4 days .... random ... maybe, not

whats random at dropping from 2950 to 2350 in 1,5 week and after this ...hope soon i will go again to about 2700 ?! ....so is it random that most players here get bad dice and good dice streaks ?


ah this will be and endless discussion after all

[donkeymile]

woodruffe - take a look at some of the other posts on this thread alone and you will see that what I am talking about happens to others too ... so believe it or not IT DOES happen - and not just to me ...

natty dread - I didn't say I have more bad than good - what I said was that the bad dice STREAKS last longer than the good ones - there is a difference.

[Woodruff]

woodruffe - take a look at some of the other posts on this thread alone and you will see that what I am talking about happens to others too ... so believe it or not IT DOES happen - and not just to me ...

I completely agree that those posting BELIEVE week-long losing streaks happen to them. I just don't agree that they actually do. I've remarked fairly often that I believe most of the complaints are caused by perception.

[Commander62890]

the bad dice streaks last longer than the good ones.

I'd like you to elaborate further on this idea.

If you believe that your overall dice are near-average (and you would be a fool not to), then what you're suggesting with the statement above is more than a little far-fetched.

The only way it makes sense to me is that in order to make up for the really long streaks of bad dice, your good dice come in medium-sized streaks interrupted by very small bad dice streaks.

It's all just a little too outrageous.

Please explain to us exactly how your dice work.

[jpreno]

Here's a streak:
Just started a game, and I placed my guys so that I would have four 3v3 attacks against one territory. I "expect" to win the territory, and I also "expect" to lose 2 or 3 armies in the process.
Don't you know, I had four consecutive 3v2 rolls where I LOST 2 ARMIES (8 total with NO opponent loss). Did not take one opponent army! I am screwed, and I doubt I'll even be able to recover.
I'm not sure of the exact odds for this (feel free to correct me), but I think it's something like 250:1.
But SO WHAT? Stuff happens. Luck is part of this game. This is absolutely NOT evidence that the dice are "streaky". In Vegas, people get streaks of 10 craps passes in a row (1000:1) or 12 Blackjack hand losses in a row (4000:1), or lose poker hands on a bad draw of the last card (40:1) but it does not mean that there is some force beyond luck at play.
As I said before--if you think there's a non-random "streakiness" to the game, you can easily prove it by making your hypothesis (prediction) and then testing it. Had I predicted before my turn that I would lose 8-0, I would have an argument for there being a problem. But I didn't. It is simply just an anecdote.

[PenalCode]

It's obvious the original poster has never been to a casino and sat at the tables before. You ever wonder why in black jack they always have min and max bets and why the max is always proportional to the minimum no matter what size the min is set at? It's to remove the strategy of doubling down when ever you lose. If you sit long enough, you will invariably run into a sequence of 7 or more losses in a row. It's not a coincidence that you will be capped by the max bet and can't recoup your prior string of losses. Let's just say the odds are close to 50/50, losing 7 in a row would seem pretty streaky, but it happens quite a bit in this 'real' situation, than you might think it would. So this system (martingale) doesn't work becuase A) even without a cap you probably don't have infinite wealth, and the casino has deeper pockets than you to ride out bad streaks, and B) the max cap prevents you from employing this strategy as you will likely hit a lengthy bad streak.

So, no, losing 17vs9 from time to time doesn't indicate the dice is broken.

[JelleR]

I love reading these discussions.


Three discussion points for those that "know" there is a streakiness that screws them:

1. If you know this, you should be able to use it to your advantage.
2. Are you willing to put money on your claim? I'll bet you find a lot of takers.
3. Prove it scientifically. A simple experiment could be as follows:
a. State your hypothesis, such as "I am more likely to lose 3 rolls in a row, than win 3 in a row"
b. Define how long you'll measure for--say all of your own 3v2 attacks in the next 10 games
c. Record every single attack for those 10 games, and the results, in order
d. at the end of those 10 games, find all the "streaks" of 3 wins/losses and count them
e. How much are they off by?
f. You should account for some statistical error--if the results are close, do it again (and again, and again). If you get a 10:1 ratio of losses to wins, then I think you have proven your point.
Science is wonderful.

I like you. And yes, players can PM re: point 2. We can always talk about that if people are willing to bet on their bad dice. I'm sure we can work something out.