dice matter more than skill.

[bugzbunny]

I am pretty new here and played lots of maps and find some days the dice are cruel and vindictive losing several 10V1s and other days the angels are all shining down on me no matter what the game.
i find it annoying most the time but fun nonetheless for the craic,

Im interested to see what you guys think who have been playing here longer than me,

===============================================================================
FULL POLL TITLE/QUESTION:
on basic maps, ie basic bonuses and all territories of equal value etc, the dice dictate 75% of games no matter the players level of skill.

==============================================================================

[sully800]

I am pretty new here and played lots of maps and find some days the dice are cruel and vindictive losing several 10V1s and other days the angels are all shining down on me no matter what the game.
i find it annoying most the time but fun nonetheless for the craic,

Im interested to see what you guys think who have been playing here longer than me,

===============================================================================
FULL POLL TITLE/QUESTION:
on basic maps, ie basic bonuses and all territories of equal value etc, the dice dictate 75% of games no matter the players level of skill.

==============================================================================

In the short term, dice and cards can be the sole factor for determining the outcome of a game, that is if the players are relatively equal in skill. Even the best dice in the world can't give a COMPLETE fool a game.

In the long run however, if you have more skill you will acquire more points than your opponents in a specific gametype. The caveat is that there are a large variety of games here, so it's possible to continually lose points in speed games and win points in escalating games or whatever variation. Generally, you can achieve the most points by only playing in your best game type, because you are obviously not losing points in your worse set ups.

[owenshooter]

The caveat is

sully goes green and busts out his thesaurus?!! ha!!!-0

[e_i_pi]

It's not just the dice, it's the drop as well.

In terms of a pseudo-case study, I consider myself pretty good at 1v1 American Civil War, No Spoils, Chained, Sunny. In my opinion, AmCivWar is reasonably basic - not the most basic map, but pretty basic (moreso than Waterloo, Supermax, Feudal, etc).

The only 'luck' factors in this setting are dice and drop - cards don't factor, and chained forts is the least drop-dependant fort type IMO.

I've played the map many times, am familiar with the attack routes, bonuses, what is easy to hold, what is hard to hold etc. I would say that strategy-wise, on that map, I'm better than about 80% of the people I play. My win rate is about 67% (I believe). So if dice/drop on average screws you as much as it helps you, then dice/drop importance is about:

(1-x) * 80% + x * 50% = 67%

Solving for x:

x = 0.43....

So, I reckon dice/drop have influence on about 40-45% of games on basic maps. So long as the map is basic, and there are no cards, a player with perfect strategy/skill will win about 75-80% of the time.

Anyone out there who plays No Spoils 1v1 on a basic map with a record greater than about 80%, to debunk my theory?

[owenshooter]

its the drop, it's your tactics, and if you aren't smart it is your dice. knowing when to stop attacking is just as important as knowing when to attack...-0

[e_i_pi]

its the drop, it's your tactics, and if you aren't smart it is your dice. knowing when to stop attacking is just as important as knowing when to attack...-0

Never have truer words been spoken. Except that time when my gf said how good I was in bed.

[a.sub]

Code: Select all

[quote="e_i_pi"]It's not just the dice, it's the drop as well.

In terms of a pseudo-case study, I consider myself pretty good at 1v1 American Civil War, No Spoils, Chained, Sunny.  In my opinion, AmCivWar is reasonably basic - not the most basic map, but pretty basic (moreso than Waterloo, Supermax, Feudal, etc).

The only 'luck' factors in this setting are dice and drop - cards don't factor, and chained forts is the least drop-dependant fort type IMO.

I've played the map many times, am familiar with the attack routes, bonuses, what is easy to hold, what is hard to hold etc.  I would say that strategy-wise, on that map, I'm better than about 80% of the people I play.  My win rate is about 67% (I believe).  So if dice/drop on average screws you as much as it helps you, then dice/drop importance is about:

(1-x) * 80% + x * 50% = 67%

Solving for x:

x = 0.43....

So, I reckon dice/drop have influence on about 40-45% of games on basic maps.  So long as the map is basic, and there are no cards, a player with perfect strategy/skill will win about 75-80% of the time.

Anyone out there who plays No Spoils 1v1 on a basic map with a record greater than about 80%, to debunk my theory? :)[/quote]


assuming you are better than 80%

lets say ur better than 75%

then it becomes
(1-x)75% + (x)50% = 67
then x = .32
dropping almost 10% simply by reducing the win factor by 5% which isnt much considering that you havent played more than 100 games and according to map-rank have actually lost more points than you have won on it.

[a.sub]

its the drop, it's your tactics, and if you aren't smart it is your dice. knowing when to stop attacking is just as important as knowing when to attack...-0

Never have truer words been spoken. Except that time when my gf said how good I was in bed.

[e_i_pi]

(1-x)75% + (x)50% = 67
then x = .32
dropping almost 10% simply by reducing the win factor by 5% which isnt much considering that you havent played more than 100 games and according to map-rank have actually lost more points than you have won on it.

Uh... okay, way to misinterpret. I never mentioned a 'win factor', I said that strategically, I'm better than about 80% of players. If me and 4 of my opponents, randomly selected, sat down and wrote out a 'how-to' guide, I'd assume there'd be one that would write better tips than myself. That's not 'win factor', that's understanding of the map.

As for the points loss, that's hardly relevant, and I assume you're trolling. I have to play opponents of about 1775 score to break even if I'm winning 2 out of 3 games (which I am). The fact that I've played opponents of lower score on average doesn't say anything about their strategic skill on that map. I've played stripes that have excellent strategy, and officers that suck. The fact that a players score is high doesn't say anything about their skill on a map - I thought you'd shown this already with the 5 games you won against KH?

[Mr Changsha]

I am pretty new here and played lots of maps and find some days the dice are cruel and vindictive losing several 10V1s and other days the angels are all shining down on me no matter what the game.
i find it annoying most the time but fun nonetheless for the craic,

Im interested to see what you guys think who have been playing here longer than me,

===============================================================================
FULL POLL TITLE/QUESTION:
on basic maps, ie basic bonuses and all territories of equal value etc, the dice dictate 75% of games no matter the players level of skill.

==============================================================================

Good first post (or at least first post I have seen)

While eipi and owen have been discussing the 1on1, 2on2 styles, I think this question also relates to multiplayer games as well. Now sadly I have no mathematical equations to illustrate my point (because I am a bit thick) but I would say that overall the better players rise up over a few games regardless of the dice in an individual game. However even in an individual game, if you think about what you need to win, you would add reading the board, reading the players, diplomacy, tactics, overall strategy...and dice. Looked at that way, dice are not a major part of even an individual multiplayer game and I certainly never win or lose a multiplayer singles game and think 'it was the dice wot won it' (British readers will understand).

Finally, if you want to really understand the minimal importance of dice go to sugs and bugs and begin reading through the dice complaints thread...all 40 odd pages of it. You'll notice that the vast majority of posters who complained about there dice, often repeatedly I'm sad to say, were/are fairly unsuccessful players. The point is they saw/see the dice as dominating their game (at least the 75% you mentioned) and the only players who see the dice as the most important factor are those that lack in the skills mentioned above.

Hope that helps and welcome to CC,

Mr C

[e_i_pi]

While eipi and owen have been discussing the 1on1, 2on2 styles, I think this question also relates to multiplayer games as well. Now sadly I have no mathematical equations to illustrate my point (because I am a bit thick) but I would say that overall the better players rise up over a few games regardless of the dice in an individual game. However even in an individual game, if you think about what you need to win, you would add reading the board, reading the players, diplomacy, tactics, overall strategy...and dice. Looked at that way, dice are not a major part of even an individual multiplayer game and I certainly never win or lose a multiplayer singles game and think 'it was the dice wot won it' (British readers will understand).

Yeah good reply Chang. I discussed 1v1 mainly to eliminate as many elements from the equation as possible - 1v1 has no diplomacy, less cashing in tactics, no elimination tactics, etc. You're dead right about multiplayer games. I consider the best players at the site to be those who have excelled at multiplayer games, and I don't think I'll ever be one of those players, as I enjoy 1v1 and team v team games. The diplomacy and tactics that go on in multiplayer games can get really intense, especially if every player plays a good game, and doesn't suicide etc. In those sorts of games, dice are not as important as positioning, tactics, diplomacy, and patience.

Finally, if you want to really understand the minimal importance of dice go to sugs and bugs and begin reading through the dice complaints thread...all 40 odd pages of it. You'll notice that the vast majority of posters who complained about there dice, often repeatedly I'm sad to say, were/are fairly unsuccessful players. The point is they saw/see the dice as dominating their game (at least the 75% you mentioned) and the only players who see the dice as the most important factor are those that lack in the skills mentioned above.

True true. Most players that complain about the dice should be looking at their style of play for faults, not the dice. I must admit, I have on occassion had a spat about the dice. Sometimes they roll with you, sometimes against you. Two memorable moments in the past few days are:
* Deploy of 8, took out 1 single, lost 7 rolls against other singles
* Deploy of 24, took out two 3s, lost all spare armies in the process
But let's not turn this into yet another dice complaint thread

If you think the dice have it in for you, just stop rolling. Losing a card is rarely as devastating as losing 3-6 armies gaining a card. Also, if you keep larger stacks, whats to say they won't defend successfully, and give you a nice attack point next round? Patience, and knowing when -not- to attack are key skills in this game, especially in multiplayer

[Mr Changsha]

While eipi and owen have been discussing the 1on1, 2on2 styles, I think this question also relates to multiplayer games as well. Now sadly I have no mathematical equations to illustrate my point (because I am a bit thick) but I would say that overall the better players rise up over a few games regardless of the dice in an individual game. However even in an individual game, if you think about what you need to win, you would add reading the board, reading the players, diplomacy, tactics, overall strategy...and dice. Looked at that way, dice are not a major part of even an individual multiplayer game and I certainly never win or lose a multiplayer singles game and think 'it was the dice wot won it' (British readers will understand).

Yeah good reply Chang. I discussed 1v1 mainly to eliminate as many elements from the equation as possible - 1v1 has no diplomacy, less cashing in tactics, no elimination tactics, etc. You're dead right about multiplayer games. I consider the best players at the site to be those who have excelled at multiplayer games, and I don't think I'll ever be one of those players, as I enjoy 1v1 and team v team games. The diplomacy and tactics that go on in multiplayer games can get really intense, especially if every player plays a good game, and doesn't suicide etc. In those sorts of games, dice are not as important as positioning, tactics, diplomacy, and patience.

Finally, if you want to really understand the minimal importance of dice go to sugs and bugs and begin reading through the dice complaints thread...all 40 odd pages of it. You'll notice that the vast majority of posters who complained about there dice, often repeatedly I'm sad to say, were/are fairly unsuccessful players. The point is they saw/see the dice as dominating their game (at least the 75% you mentioned) and the only players who see the dice as the most important factor are those that lack in the skills mentioned above.

True true. Most players that complain about the dice should be looking at their style of play for faults, not the dice. I must admit, I have on occassion had a spat about the dice. Sometimes they roll with you, sometimes against you. Two memorable moments in the past few days are:
* Deploy of 8, took out 1 single, lost 7 rolls against other singles
* Deploy of 24, took out two 3s, lost all spare armies in the process
But let's not turn this into yet another dice complaint thread

If you think the dice have it in for you, just stop rolling. Losing a card is rarely as devastating as losing 3-6 armies gaining a card. Also, if you keep larger stacks, whats to say they won't defend successfully, and give you a nice attack point next round? Patience, and knowing when -not- to attack are key skills in this game, especially in multiplayer

Oh the dice drive me nuts sometimes as well but I've always believed the maxim that 'if your position is inherently superior (i.e you've got your bonus and territories and broken all the others) you'll come through eventually even if your dice collapse for a round.' Just finishing off an 8 man dubs where my partner went 19 on 3 (to break a bonus that had to be broken and then grab six or seven territories hopefully) and he made it with two to advance. Disaster! Yet in the end his position was still inpregnable and they were all still broken so we would have another chance next round. Dice came back the next round and the game is over. Point is we slowly but surely broke all the other teams so that when we actually stretched out a little for the win we had saved up a few troops behind the lines in case of the sudden dice collapse that can always happen on CC. We would get two pops at the cherry. Those who do badly in multiplayer games are at best giving themselves one shot at it, often not even that for how many times have you seen players/teams going for a win or break/invasion which requires GREAT dice to pull off and then complaining about dice when they get beat?

I make a point of simply not going for the win/break unless average dice would do it comfortably and in general I like to be able to roll '10 down' and still make it. This requires the patience and forward planning you mentioned.

So to conclude (and then sod off for some lunch having giving you all the benefit of my considerable wisdom) if you truly have the skill in this game then the dice are your armies. Sometimes those armies completely screw up, get massaced in fact in attack and defence (and those dice complainers never think about their defence do they?) but the great general always has MORE ARMIES to send to the front. If you lack the skill in this game the dice are not your armies at all, but merely dice that you roll and hope for the best with. Your dice are a haphazard rabble without lines of communication and transport dependent merely on their own efforts to survive. Is it any wonder they always die? To my mind that's the great difference between those who can truly play well and those who scrabble around, get the stuffing kicked out of them, and then die.

However that point is as applicable to dubs, trips and quads as it is to multiplayer singles. In all cases the coordination of the armies is everything and if the armies are better coordinated then some minor battles may be lost but the overall war will be won. If a team's dice just truly died over seven rounds of a trips game, then the only conclusion can be collusion with enemy forces, mutiny or the depravations of disease. I suppose that can happen and must be accepted as just bad luck. But in my experience those cases are quite rare.

[niMic]

In the short term, dice and cards can be the sole factor for determining the outcome of a game, that is if the players are relatively equal in skill. Even the best dice in the world can't give a COMPLETE fool a game.

In the long run however, if you have more skill you will acquire more points than your opponents in a specific gametype. The caveat is that there are a large variety of games here, so it's possible to continually lose points in speed games and win points in escalating games or whatever variation. Generally, you can achieve the most points by only playing in your best game type, because you are obviously not losing points in your worse set ups.

This is the crux of the matter, as I see it. It's probably very true that dice can win or lose individual games (though I'd disagree with the notion that most of them are mostly decided by the luck of the roll), but the law of averages will still mean that over a long period it's entirely possible to see what any individual player is good at/not good at, and how good or bad he (or she) is at the modes in question. I could win any individual freestyle escalating game, but I know that it's far from my best mode of play. And over time that will shine through.
Exactly the same, I could lose against 4 cooks, even with my favoured sequential Quads team, but over time it will be clear that it's certainly my favoured style of play.

It's sort of the old sports cliche that anyone can beat anyone, but in CC it's most definitely true. Point is, though, that over time these blips won't matter as much.

Baring in mind that the vast majority of my CC-knowledge here comes from sequential team games, so things I haven't done a whole lot of (1v1, speed games, etc) could be a whole different issue that I'm not "qualified" to pass judgment on.

[Woodruff]

It's sort of like what Chris Ferguson says about Texas Hold'Em poker. How well a player does on any single given hand is about 90% luck. However, over the course of a year of poker, how well a player does is only about 15% luck because over time, people put themselves into positions where luck isn't going to have as much of an opportunity to have an impact.

He's a tremendous "math guy", so I'll take his word for it.

[a.sub]

(1-x)75% + (x)50% = 67
then x = .32
dropping almost 10% simply by reducing the win factor by 5% which isnt much considering that you havent played more than 100 games and according to map-rank have actually lost more points than you have won on it.

Uh... okay, way to misinterpret. I never mentioned a 'win factor', I said that strategically, I'm better than about 80% of players. If me and 4 of my opponents, randomly selected, sat down and wrote out a 'how-to' guide, I'd assume there'd be one that would write better tips than myself. That's not 'win factor', that's understanding of the map.

As for the points loss, that's hardly relevant, and I assume you're trolling. I have to play opponents of about 1775 score to break even if I'm winning 2 out of 3 games (which I am). The fact that I've played opponents of lower score on average doesn't say anything about their strategic skill on that map. I've played stripes that have excellent strategy, and officers that suck. The fact that a players score is high doesn't say anything about their skill on a map - I thought you'd shown this already with the 5 games you won against KH?

wow man way to be a troll eh?
all i was saying was that whether or not you are better than 80% is not a fact and thus you are basing it off of non empirical facts.
as for the games against KH ... f*ck yeah

[BoganGod]

I am pretty new here and played lots of maps and find some days the dice are cruel and vindictive losing several 10V1s and other days the angels are all shining down on me no matter what the game.
i find it annoying most the time but fun nonetheless for the craic,

Im interested to see what you guys think who have been playing here longer than me,

===============================================================================
FULL POLL TITLE/QUESTION:
on basic maps, ie basic bonuses and all territories of equal value etc, the dice dictate 75% of games no matter the players level of skill.

==============================================================================

In the short term, dice and cards can be the sole factor for determining the outcome of a game, that is if the players are relatively equal in skill. Even the best dice in the world can't give a COMPLETE fool a game.

In the long run however, if you have more skill you will acquire more points than your opponents in a specific gametype. The caveat is that there are a large variety of games here, so it's possible to continually lose points in speed games and win points in escalating games or whatever variation. Generally, you can achieve the most points by only playing in your best game type, because you are obviously not losing points in your worse set ups.

Amen and well said!

I have found that the smaller the map, the more of a major factor the dice become especially when playing 2player. Mostly the dice seem to even out for me, swings and round abouts one could say

[AAFitz]

I am pretty new here and played lots of maps and find some days the dice are cruel and vindictive losing several 10V1s and other days the angels are all shining down on me no matter what the game.
i find it annoying most the time but fun nonetheless for the craic,

Im interested to see what you guys think who have been playing here longer than me,

===============================================================================
FULL POLL TITLE/QUESTION:
on basic maps, ie basic bonuses and all territories of equal value etc, the dice dictate 75% of games no matter the players level of skill.

==============================================================================

[AAFitz]

I am pretty new here and played lots of maps and find some days the dice are cruel and vindictive losing several 10V1s and other days the angels are all shining down on me no matter what the game.
i find it annoying most the time but fun nonetheless for the craic,

Im interested to see what you guys think who have been playing here longer than me,

===============================================================================
FULL POLL TITLE/QUESTION:
on basic maps, ie basic bonuses and all territories of equal value etc, the dice dictate 75% of games no matter the players level of skill.

==============================================================================

I will be happy to prove it to you in a bought of say 15 games, just pm me. You have absolutely no chance of winning more than 7... despite drop, dice or cards.

They will not be doodle games, otherwise, I would mostly agree with your statement.

Skill matters most of the time in most games, and overall matters more than anything else, since everything else is a constant over time...

Let me know.

[luapie]

Haha lol what a poll!!! Off course they do!!

Man i played so many games, losing 20 vs 1 has nothing to do with strategy.
It would be prety dumb to suggest cc has anything to do with strategy at all.
Anyone who has played the amount of games i did should know it. If you dont agree with it, you probably havent had a bad streak at all.

So 100 % off luck

[luapie]

I am pretty new here and played lots of maps and find some days the dice are cruel and vindictive losing several 10V1s and other days the angels are all shining down on me no matter what the game.
i find it annoying most the time but fun nonetheless for the craic,

Im interested to see what you guys think who have been playing here longer than me,

===============================================================================
FULL POLL TITLE/QUESTION:
on basic maps, ie basic bonuses and all territories of equal value etc, the dice dictate 75% of games no matter the players level of skill.

==============================================================================

I will be happy to prove it to you in a bought of say 15 games, just pm me. You have absolutely no chance of winning more than 7... despite drop, dice or cards.

They will not be doodle games, otherwise, I would mostly agree with your statement.

Skill matters most of the time in most games, and overall matters more than anything else, since everything else is a constant over time...

Let me know.

Lol i would love too,

i will pm you when i have a good streak.

Man what a crap bullshit

[bugzbunny]

I am pretty new here and played lots of maps and find some days the dice are cruel and vindictive losing several 10V1s and other days the angels are all shining down on me no matter what the game.
i find it annoying most the time but fun nonetheless for the craic,

Im interested to see what you guys think who have been playing here longer than me,

===============================================================================
FULL POLL TITLE/QUESTION:
on basic maps, ie basic bonuses and all territories of equal value etc, the dice dictate 75% of games no matter the players level of skill.

==============================================================================

I will be happy to prove it to you in a bought of say 15 games, just pm me. You have absolutely no chance of winning more than 7... despite drop, dice or cards.

They will not be doodle games, otherwise, I would mostly agree with your statement.

Skill matters most of the time in most games, and overall matters more than anything else, since everything else is a constant over time...

Let me know.

Haha yeah but your assuming your definitly more skillful than me!

i could suprise you and end up rapeing your for 100s of points lol.

wait even if i won less than like 5 i would still rape you of lots of points lol.

[luapie]

Dear Commercial Club,

You moderators suck. When this site was a club it was nice to be here.
This site has been changing from a good one to a terrible one!!

[Woodruff]

Haha lol what a poll!!! Off course they do!!
Man i played so many games, losing 20 vs 1 has nothing to do with strategy.
It would be prety dumb to suggest cc has anything to do with strategy at all.
Anyone who has played the amount of games i did should know it. If you dont agree with it, you probably havent had a bad streak at all.
So 100 % off luck

You'd think a whiner with more than 11,000 games played would have realized long ago that they were wasting their time and just leave the site.

Dear Commercial Club,

You moderators suck. When this site was a club it was nice to be here.
This site has been changing from a good one to a terrible one!!

So then WHY are you still here?

[Woodruff]

I am pretty new here and played lots of maps and find some days the dice are cruel and vindictive losing several 10V1s and other days the angels are all shining down on me no matter what the game.
i find it annoying most the time but fun nonetheless for the craic,

Im interested to see what you guys think who have been playing here longer than me,

===============================================================================
FULL POLL TITLE/QUESTION:
on basic maps, ie basic bonuses and all territories of equal value etc, the dice dictate 75% of games no matter the players level of skill.

==============================================================================

I will be happy to prove it to you in a bought of say 15 games, just pm me. You have absolutely no chance of winning more than 7... despite drop, dice or cards.

They will not be doodle games, otherwise, I would mostly agree with your statement.

Skill matters most of the time in most games, and overall matters more than anything else, since everything else is a constant over time...

Let me know.

Haha yeah but your assuming your definitly more skillful than me!

Yes.

i could suprise you and end up rapeing your for 100s of points lol.
wait even if i won less than like 5 i would still rape you of lots of points lol.

You COULD surprise him, sure...anything's possible when random dice are involved, I suppose. But you wouldn't. But go ahead and prove me (and him) wrong.

[a.sub]

Haha lol what a poll!!! Off course they do!!
Man i played so many games, losing 20 vs 1 has nothing to do with strategy.
It would be prety dumb to suggest cc has anything to do with strategy at all.
Anyone who has played the amount of games i did should know it. If you dont agree with it, you probably havent had a bad streak at all.
So 100 % off luck

You'd think a whiner with more than 11,000 games played would have realized long ago that they were wasting their time and just leave the site.

@ luapie
as much as i dont like KH for foeing me, i will say that there is NO WAY he got to the top on lucky streaks alone
obviously he has some level of skill to get him up there
go check the top map ranks, people are 3500+ on maps, and you want me to believe they are just lucky?
brilliant