Yes, another dice thread [Merged]

[sbuck143]

Okay i've been playing this game for a little over a week now........been playing Risk for about 30 yrs. I can count on two hands the number of times in 30 yrs playing with real dice the number of times a completely statistically improbable event occurred.

The 30 v 2 losing.... the 40 v 5 losing 20 armies... then the 20 v 3 battle in the next territory going down to 1 v 2. The bat-blank crazy stuff that makes you shake your head, and where your literal odds of losing are 1 in 2.4 million. The kind of stuff I can bring up and razz my brother about to this day, even tho it happend 20 yrs ago, because that kind of event stays with you. lol.


Now i've read alot on these forums the past few days about how the dice are truly and completely random, how random.org is infallible, and how it's just luck in the short term, hot and cold streaks.


But none of that explains to me how in just one week in the 9 games i have going or have finished, i've experienced (on both sides, as the victor and as the victim) at least 2 dozen, once in a million events?


How is it that when i use real dice, the one in million events are really one in a million. Yet on here the one in a million events are more like one in 500? And it seems to be skewed much more so to the defender's dice rolls than to the attackers.

Note i'm not complaining as a victim here. I'm not claiming it is only occuring to me, because it most definitely is not. I have fully taken advantage of this phenomenon, and cringed as it occurs to my opponents not always from me....

It removes a great deal of fun from the game, knowing that 66% of the time, my 20 armies in a region are more than enough to handle anything but 60+ at it. I'm pretty close to walking away, even though i quickly dropped the coin for the premium membership.

So whats the explanation for how in 10 games here, the dice do things that I never saw in the 1000+ real Risk games I've played (conservatively).....

[hwhrhett]

auto attack = death

stop using it, and youll feel more in control of your dice...

the reason you dont see it in real life games, is because instead of hitting auto attack, once you lose like 8 men in a row, you stop...

EDIT: you can also download the dizealyzer plugin from the plug-ins forum, and it will monitor your dice, and you will see very quickly that they are definately fair and balanced...

[Qwert]

You must understand that small number of players, get great dices and that large number of players get -well not so great dices.
If everybody manage to get same dices,then probably will have scoreboard without Fieldmarshals,Generals and other high ranks.
Random-means luck to be in good time in right place,to get great dices-some people have that, and probably you are not in this place.

[the.killing.44]

So whats the explanation for how in 10 games here, the dice do things that I never saw in the 1000+ real Risk games I've played (conservatively).....

Because only you and your personal opponents used the dice, and thus used the probability coming from that one source of the rolls, your physical dice, when you played in real life; on the site there are literally millions of rolls coming through every hour. You only see the 1-in-1,000,000 losses in years of playing by yourself, while here you don't see every single roll. The fact is that you, or your opponent, sometimes comes out with that 1-in-1,000,000th roll while you only see, say, 50 of them.

[sbuck143]

auto attack = death

stop using it, and youll feel more in control of your dice...

the reason you dont see it in real life games, is because instead of hitting auto attack, once you lose like 8 men in a row, you stop...

EDIT: you can also download the dizealyzer plugin from the plug-ins forum, and it will monitor your dice, and you will see very quickly that they are definately fair and balanced...

um....okay? Except I don't use auto-assault. I do hit the single assault button to analyze the battle as its going, and to bring several territories to the fight at one time.

I have d/l'ed the plug-in but how about you tell me how many total rolls I should have before the results start to look fair and balanced?

[Shatners Bassoon]

You must understand that small number of players, get great dices and that large number of players get -well not so great dices.
If everybody manage to get same dices,then probably will have scoreboard without Fieldmarshals,Generals and other high ranks.
Random-means luck to be in good time in right place,to get great dices-some people have that, and probably you are not in this place.

[sbuck143]

You must understand that small number of players, get great dices and that large number of players get -well not so great dices.
If everybody manage to get same dices,then probably will have scoreboard without Fieldmarshals,Generals and other high ranks.
Random-means luck to be in good time in right place,to get great dices-some people have that, and probably you are not in this place.

i guess people aren't reading my post, or maybe its not clear enough? I'm about ready to walk away from this game entirely because i see it happening everywhere. This isn't a "waaaaaaaaah i lost 40 v 3" post........check my profile I'm doing pretty well for myself so far.


No, this is a "I've been on the 3 side of that 40 v 3 and escaped too many times in JUST ONE week of playing this game" type of post. Its ruining the fun of some otherwise *kick-butt* maps here.

[sbuck143]

So whats the explanation for how in 10 games here, the dice do things that I never saw in the 1000+ real Risk games I've played (conservatively).....

Because only you and your personal opponents used the dice, and thus used the probability coming from that one source of the rolls, your physical dice, when you played in real life; on the site there are literally millions of rolls coming through every hour. You only see the 1-in-1,000,000 losses in years of playing by yourself, while here you don't see every single roll. The fact is that you, or your opponent, sometimes comes out with that 1-in-1,000,000th roll while you only see, say, 50 of them.

Well then that pretty much says that while the rolls are random, the odds are most definitely not.

if i'm only plucking say, every 100th die roll out for my results, the mechanism for achieving randomness has been completely removed from the die roll, and is entirely dependent on that "plucking" mechanism.

What assurances do we have that whatever it is that plucks the data from the random number generator is doing so without bias or without a skewed protocol driving it?

[hwhrhett]

I have d/l'ed the plug-in but how about you tell me how many total rolls I should have before the results start to look fair and balanced?

try 2 weeks then come back here and tell us what you found...

[the.killing.44]

Well then that pretty much says that while the rolls are random, the odds are most definitely not.

Nope. You've just been unlucky or lucky enough to grab out that crazy one from time to time. It happens to others, too.

if i'm only plucking say, every 100th die roll out for my results, the mechanism for achieving randomness has been completely removed from the die roll, and is entirely dependent on that "plucking" mechanism.

No sir, what if the dice always came out in a pattern of 6,1,6,1,6,etc.? Wouldn't that null the plucker (actually you clicking the button, and the time you do it)?

What assurances do we have that whatever it is that plucks the data from the random number generator is doing so without bias or without a skewed protocol driving it?

That of the administrators, and if you don't believe them, sorry bub…

[MrMoody]

6 completed, 5 (83%) won <--------- 5 out of 6 and the dice are crap? I guess the guys you beat should be the ones posting a thread like this.

[karelpietertje]

You must understand that small number of players, get great dices and that large number of players get -well not so great dices. As much as this may seem true with all the people complaining about their dice, and the relatively few who are positive about their dice, this is certainly not true. Everybody gets lucky, and everybody gets bad luck once in a while. The reason more people are negative than positive about dice, is because most people are expecting a lot from their dice.
If everybody manage to get same dices,then probably will have scoreboard without Fieldmarshals,Generals and other high ranks.
Actually, most Generals and Field Marshals know a lot more about luck than others, and have found a way to play with them to decrease the odds of losing and increase the odds of winning. If this game would be even less luck-based, scores would probably differ even more. Luck is actually the factor keeping the scores together.
Random-means luck to be in good time in right place,to get great dices- I don't know which University, High school or even elementary school you went to, but this is certainly not the definition of random.
some people have that, and probably you are not in this place. Again, dice don't depend on who they are rolling for. it's not about being in a lucky group or unlucky group. The dice are the same to everybody before they are rolled. after they are rolled, they are obviously different, but after a lot of dice-rolling, everybody should have had his fair share of winning.
If you ever hear somebody with more than 1000 games played say that he has been consistently unlucky in more than 90% of his games, odds are about 100% that he is just judging from a point of view in which he expects dice to be better than they are in average.

This wink you make here kind of annoyed me even more.

Really qwert, every statement you make in this post is false. Together with the crappy english and know-it-all tone, your posts are of great annoyance to me
This is the first time that that annoyance has overpowered my respect for your mapmaking, and I decided to finally say something about it

[72o]

6 completed, 5 (83%) won <--------- 5 out of 6 and the dice are crap? I guess the guys you beat should be the ones posting a thread like this.

i guess people aren't reading my post, or maybe its not clear enough? I'm about ready to walk away from this game entirely because i see it happening everywhere. This isn't a "waaaaaaaaah i lost 40 v 3" post........check my profile I'm doing pretty well for myself so far.


No, this is a "I've been on the 3 side of that 40 v 3 and escaped too many times in JUST ONE week of playing this game" type of post. Its ruining the fun of some otherwise *kick-butt* maps here.

[hwhrhett]

6 completed, 5 (83%) won <--------- 5 out of 6 and the dice are crap? I guess the guys you beat should be the ones posting a thread like this.

i guess people aren't reading my post, or maybe its not clear enough? I'm about ready to walk away from this game entirely because i see it happening everywhere. This isn't a "waaaaaaaaah i lost 40 v 3" post........check my profile I'm doing pretty well for myself so far.


No, this is a "I've been on the 3 side of that 40 v 3 and escaped too many times in JUST ONE week of playing this game" type of post. Its ruining the fun of some otherwise *kick-butt* maps here.

yes, this is a good point, how did you have such massive losses 3 different times and still only manage to lose 1 game? thats awe-inspiring. i mean, if youve only been here a week then they obviously we'rent build games or anything... exaggerating maybe?

[MrMoody]

i guess people aren't reading my post, or maybe its not clear enough? I'm about ready to walk away from this game entirely because i see it happening everywhere. This isn't a "waaaaaaaaah i lost 40 v 3" post........check my profile I'm doing pretty well for myself so far.


No, this is a "I've been on the 3 side of that 40 v 3 and escaped too many times in JUST ONE week of playing this game" type of post. Its ruining the fun of some otherwise *kick-butt* maps here.

I did read that the first time. But I just don't believe he would be to the point of walking away. Not after winning his first 5 out of 6. What the dice are to much to his advantage?

[JimRocky]

auto attack = death

stop using it, and youll feel more in control of your dice...

the reason you dont see it in real life games, is because instead of hitting auto attack, once you lose like 8 men in a row, you stop...

EDIT: you can also download the dizealyzer plugin from the plug-ins forum, and it will monitor your dice, and you will see very quickly that they are definately fair and balanced...

I dunno. I use auto often and while I have been on the bad end of the results at times, there have also been incredibly good outcomes like 70 vs 50 and I end up with 59 left after wiping the 50 away.

Maybe it's been suggested, I haven't checked; so I don't know, but an idea might be that when using auto the attacker would have the option to select the troop level that he wishes to stop the auto attacking, instead of it being a constant.

[sbuck143]

i guess people aren't reading my post, or maybe its not clear enough? I'm about ready to walk away from this game entirely because i see it happening everywhere. This isn't a "waaaaaaaaah i lost 40 v 3" post........check my profile I'm doing pretty well for myself so far.


No, this is a "I've been on the 3 side of that 40 v 3 and escaped too many times in JUST ONE week of playing this game" type of post. Its ruining the fun of some otherwise *kick-butt* maps here.

I did read that the first time. But I just don't believe he would be to the point of walking away. Not after winning his first 5 out of 6. What the dice are to much to his advantage?

It's not that they are too much to my advantage. What i'm discovering is that they are too much to the defenders advantage. No matter if I'm defending or if its one of my opponents. And of course, I'd walk away despite having success. Just because i'm able to use this skew to my advantage doesn't mean its particularly fun or nearly as fun as it would be with a proper random distribution for both offense and defense.

Are you saying that if you discovered a glitch that caused you to roll all 6's as a defender or force the attacker to roll all 1's that you wouldnt walk away from a game with that?

[Qwert]

Really qwert, every statement you make in this post is false. Together with the crappy english and know-it-all tone, your posts are of great annoyance to me
This is the first time that that annoyance has overpowered my respect for your mapmaking, and I decided to finally say something about it

Are you want to tell me that you get same dices like me?Lets play 5 games in normal maps(i mean maps who dont give big advantage to nobody).This experiment will show if im wrong or right.Mine oppinion is that you will get more lucky dices then me.
Mine english is bad,not crappy. Try to learn mine language,and you will see that its not easy.

[the.killing.44]

Really qwert, every statement you make in this post is false. Together with the crappy english and know-it-all tone, your posts are of great annoyance to me
This is the first time that that annoyance has overpowered my respect for your mapmaking, and I decided to finally say something about it

Are you want to tell me that you get same dices like me?Lets play 5 games in normal maps(i mean maps who dont give big advantage to nobody).This experiment will show if im wrong or right.Mine oppinion is that you will get more lucky dices then me.
Mine english is bad,not crappy. Try to learn mine language,and you will see that its not easy.

No offense, but kp is Dutch and his English is flawless…

[captainwalrus]

I played a game of real RISK yesterday with 3 other friends. I lost every attack and every dsefence except for one. No matter what I attacked, 7v2, 5v1 anything, I lost. I have worse luck in RL that I do on CC.

[Mr Changsha]

Really qwert, every statement you make in this post is false. Together with the crappy english and know-it-all tone, your posts are of great annoyance to me
This is the first time that that annoyance has overpowered my respect for your mapmaking, and I decided to finally say something about it

Are you want to tell me that you get same dices like me?Lets play 5 games in normal maps(i mean maps who dont give big advantage to nobody).This experiment will show if im wrong or right.Mine oppinion is that you will get more lucky dices then me.
Mine english is bad,not crappy. Try to learn mine language,and you will see that its not easy.

KP is not the first player to call you on this insane 'some players get great dice and that's why they have a high rank' belief of yours. It really does suck balls you know?

[Mr Changsha]

i guess people aren't reading my post, or maybe its not clear enough? I'm about ready to walk away from this game entirely because i see it happening everywhere. This isn't a "waaaaaaaaah i lost 40 v 3" post........check my profile I'm doing pretty well for myself so far.


No, this is a "I've been on the 3 side of that 40 v 3 and escaped too many times in JUST ONE week of playing this game" type of post. Its ruining the fun of some otherwise *kick-butt* maps here.

I did read that the first time. But I just don't believe he would be to the point of walking away. Not after winning his first 5 out of 6. What the dice are to much to his advantage?

It's not that they are too much to my advantage. What i'm discovering is that they are too much to the defenders advantage. No matter if I'm defending or if its one of my opponents. And of course, I'd walk away despite having success. Just because i'm able to use this skew to my advantage doesn't mean its particularly fun or nearly as fun as it would be with a proper random distribution for both offense and defense.

Are you saying that if you discovered a glitch that caused you to roll all 6's as a defender or force the attacker to roll all 1's that you wouldnt walk away from a game with that?

I've been playing here for a while and I've rolled countless CC Dice (sorry assault cubes). Maybe you'll find my perspective useful, but then again, maybe you won't!

1. Don't use the dice analyser download. That way leads to madness my friend, as devotees tend to find themselves posting their results in GD (or now sugs and bugs) to PROVE their dice are screwed...in a more than slightly obsessive fashion. The fact that if the dice truly were random then some players would get better dice than others (even over a long period) seem to pass them by...

2. Some games are more dice dependent than others, thus making the players of that style feel that dice are winning/losing games for them. 1vs1 would be the best example of this, but even dubs trips and quads can have that..."It's all about the dice" feeling. One of the reasons I play large multiplayer games is that I believe the dice are less of a factor.

3. I have to agree with you that it does SEEM that the defender rolls an uncommonly large number of 5's and 6's. Almost all players have found this, though whether this is a question of perception or actual fact is hard to say. However, we are all in the same boat and if one can accept that CC defenders seem to have that little bit of extra punch, then one can adjust their strategy accordingly.

4. To keep sane, if you are playing 1on1, 2on2, trips and quads consider the luck of starting order, position AND dice when analysing the game. Maybe your dice were horrific, but did you start first, how was your drop? I've found that games tend to even out on the luck factor if thought of in this way.

5. If you've played Risk as much as you say you have, then you'll know that 6 on 3 up to 10 on 3 rolls are actually pretty risky. For example, 8 on 3 often seems like it should be a cinch, but lose 2 then lose 2 (hardly unusual) = 4 on 3 and you should then, strategically, probably stop (not always but I'm sure you see my point). Have that happen to you three times in a game and the temptation to scream "the dice are screwed!!" is obviously pretty high. But in fact it is actually pretty normal.

[mibi]

Maybe CC can experiment with getting rolls from the Dice-O-Matic.

[sbuck143]

It's not that they are too much to my advantage. What i'm discovering is that they are too much to the defenders advantage. No matter if I'm defending or if its one of my opponents. And of course, I'd walk away despite having success. Just because i'm able to use this skew to my advantage doesn't mean its particularly fun or nearly as fun as it would be with a proper random distribution for both offense and defense.

Are you saying that if you discovered a glitch that caused you to roll all 6's as a defender or force the attacker to roll all 1's that you wouldnt walk away from a game with that?

I've been playing here for a while and I've rolled countless CC Dice (sorry assault cubes). Maybe you'll find my perspective useful, but then again, maybe you won't!

1. Don't use the dice analyser download. That way leads to madness my friend, as devotees tend to find themselves posting their results in GD (or now sugs and bugs) to PROVE their dice are screwed...in a more than slightly obsessive fashion. The fact that if the dice truly were random then some players would get better dice than others (even over a long period) seem to pass them by...

2. Some games are more dice dependent than others, thus making the players of that style feel that dice are winning/losing games for them. 1vs1 would be the best example of this, but even dubs trips and quads can have that..."It's all about the dice" feeling. One of the reasons I play large multiplayer games is that I believe the dice are less of a factor.

3. I have to agree with you that it does SEEM that the defender rolls an uncommonly large number of 5's and 6's. Almost all players have found this, though whether this is a question of perception or actual fact is hard to say. However, we are all in the same boat and if one can accept that CC defenders seem to have that little bit of extra punch, then one can adjust their strategy accordingly.

4. To keep sane, if you are playing 1on1, 2on2, trips and quads consider the luck of starting order, position AND dice when analysing the game. Maybe your dice were horrific, but did you start first, how was your drop? I've found that games tend to even out on the luck factor if thought of in this way.

5. If you've played Risk as much as you say you have, then you'll know that 6 on 3 up to 10 on 3 rolls are actually pretty risky. For example, 8 on 3 often seems like it should be a cinch, but lose 2 then lose 2 (hardly unusual) = 4 on 3 and you should then, strategically, probably stop (not always but I'm sure you see my point). Have that happen to you three times in a game and the temptation to scream "the dice are screwed!!" is obviously pretty high. But in fact it is actually pretty normal.

Thanks for this reply Mr. Changsha.

Yeah, I'm not stating at all that the dice are unfair to me.....its thats defender dice seem to be unfair to everyone. As you can tell from my record, I've developed some good strategies to take advantage of this, but it still is sapping some of the enjoyment of the game for me.

Yeah 8 v 3 , and 6 v 3 are by no means gimmes, but i've seen in one game alone 7 consecutive 6 v 3 assaults that end with the attacker calling it off, over the course of 3 turns. Some by me, some by my opponents.

Has it been put in suggestions that we need to have in the log, the failed assaults as well? It is pretty tedious to try backsolve what happened on opponents turns beyond just what they successfully conquered.

[Foxglove]

Yeah, I'm not stating at all that the dice are unfair to me.....its thats defender dice seem to be unfair to everyone. As you can tell from my record, I've developed some good strategies to take advantage of this, but it still is sapping some of the enjoyment of the game for me.

Yeah 8 v 3 , and 6 v 3 are by no means gimmes, but i've seen in one game alone 7 consecutive 6 v 3 assaults that end with the attacker calling it off, over the course of 3 turns. Some by me, some by my opponents.

The nature of random dice is to be without a predictable pattern, although some outcomes are statistically more likely than others. It's human nature to recall poor outcomes more often than good ones, and to remember events that support your own ideas and hypotheses. So it's quite probable that the defender's dice are not "unfair to everyone" (anymore than the probabilities indicate). Also, you can't take your sample group of one person (you) and assume that your memory of your experiences is reflective of the average CC player.