[Official] Team CC Mafia [Finished]

[Metsfanmax]

Or we could discuss a deal in which one townie helps the cult today and is rewarded with a recruitment (and a win) tonight. I think PCM is the perfect candidate, as his busdrive could frustrate a deal with anyone else. Being the only 100% confirmed cult member, I'll be handling all aspects of the negotiation.

Town still has good chances to win without anyone making any deals. We've got two roles (at least) that can preclude a recruitment. If we lynch you today, it'll be 5 vs. 3. Tonight pcm and I will target two suspected cult and we'll have a pretty good chance of shutting down the recruitment. Plus there's still a chance that you're the recruiter either way.

All PCM does is switch people. Recruiter still hits his target, won't affect anything. Maybe if he manages to switch the recruitee with the recruiter, but odds are small of that happening.

Let's not mince words here. The only way for them to guarantee a win is to recruit Commander9. If they have the DK, there's no way for them to lose; if we retain C9 tomorrow we can still pull this off. That means if pcm busdrives C9 with anyone, they can't get him tonight. Let's say pcm busdrives C9 and, say, AOG or jimfinn; even if they're town already, it becomes 4-4. During the day we have both a DK and a lynch, making it 4-2. pcm busdrives C9 again that night, it becomes 3-3, We again get a DK and a lynch making it 3-1 and it's ours. So the town can certainly win if pcm plays along.

[Rodion]

If you'd like to make a deal and win, just vote on Commander and I'll worry about the rest.

Also, disable your "hide online status" option. The 4 culties need to know you're offline when we decide to speedlynch so we're sure you won't interfere.

[jimfinn]

vote:Commander9

[pancakemix]

All PCM does is switch people. Recruiter still hits his target, won't affect anything. Maybe if he manages to switch the recruitee with the recruiter, but odds are small of that happening.

I just have to switch a cult into the recruited spot. Still slim odds, but not terrible.

If you'd like to make a deal and win, just vote on Commander and I'll worry about the rest.

Ah, but that could result in an automatic endgame. I'd rather not take THAT risk.

Although I think a compromise can be reached here. If I vote no lynch, it opens it up to either side.

1. Lynching the recruiter is necessary for our victory. That must happen today.
2. I firmly believe there is no way to determine the recruiter today.
3. No lynch means town hasn't wasted its only chance, it just moves that chance into the night phase. It also mostly removes the WIFOM element.
4. If Mets succeeds in blocking the recruiter, town has basically won because all of the cult were on the speed lynch. If he misses, cult wins.

Vote no lynch

[Metsfanmax]

It's true that a win is still possible without a cult kill today, but offing a cult member narrows down the list of possible recruiters, which will be vital information in the next day or two, and it drastically constrains the number of possible ending scenarios.

[jimfinn]

unvote vote:nolynch

[Metsfanmax]

Rodion is most likely bluffing here. Cult can obviously not organize themselves into getting a speed lynch or else they would have done so during the approximately 68 hours where pcm had voted for me. This also means that Rodion has no way of organizing this guaranteed recruitment for the town traitor unless he himself is the recruiter.

[Rodion]

Rodion is most likely bluffing here. Cult can obviously not organize themselves into getting a speed lynch or else they would have done so during the approximately 68 hours where pcm had voted for me. This also means that Rodion has no way of organizing this guaranteed recruitment for the town traitor unless he himself is the recruiter.

The offer I made to PCM has 2 key differences, so, yes, I can organize it. One of them is obvious:

"hey, cult, be here at 4 PM EST to get __________ lynched" (I couldn't do that before, now I can because I partially revealed my identity, so there's no need to hide under the townie mask anymore)

PCM - I'm not 100% sure about taking you on the "no lynch" offer because I'm not entirely sure yet of how the Commander/Jeraado mechanics was designed. If Commander has a weird power, cult's win odds drop from 100% to something below that. Getting Commander lynched is safer than a no lynch, although I do understand your concern of an endgame. In the end, I think you'll have to take my original offer (but I'm still thinking if something better for you could be done).

Jimfinn - you must claim your power before I'm willing to deal with you

[Metsfanmax]

Rodion is most likely bluffing here. Cult can obviously not organize themselves into getting a speed lynch or else they would have done so during the approximately 68 hours where pcm had voted for me. This also means that Rodion has no way of organizing this guaranteed recruitment for the town traitor unless he himself is the recruiter.

The offer I made to PCM has 2 key differences, so, yes, I can organize it. One of them is obvious:

"hey, cult, be here at 4 PM EST to get __________ lynched" (I couldn't do that before, now I can because I partially revealed my identity, so there's no need to hide under the townie mask anymore)

This is a tenuous idea for the cult and you know it. First of all there's no guarantee that everyone will actually see that post before the appointed time (unless you know who they are and -- illegally -- communicate with them outside the thread about it), and second all it takes is one person running a bit late or not actually being available at that time, to ruin the whole plan.

[Metsfanmax]

Also, frankly, there's just no proof that Rodion is cult. This could all simply be an elaborate ploy to convince them to pick him as tonight's recruit so that he ends up on the winning side.

You're going to need to do a lot better to convince anyone you can pull off what you've said you can.

[Rodion]

I just need to establish the appointed time 5 days from now (should be more than enough even for AoG to get a read here, if he is cult).

And I would not ok them to post if one of them were "not available", I'd just reschedule (I'll be online to orchestrate it, don't worry, we got this).

[Metsfanmax]

I just need to establish the appointed time 5 days from now (should be more than enough even for AoG to get a read here, if he is cult).

And I would not ok them to post if one of them were "not available", I'd just reschedule (I'll be online to orchestrate it, don't worry, we got this).

Still fishing here and it's not working. How are you going to know that everyone can actually make that time 5 days from now if you can't talk to them and don't even know who's cult? What if somebody works at the time you chose?

[Rodion]

Reschedule until I find the correct time. We got no deadline.

[Metsfanmax]

And when TSL comes in here tomorrow or the next day and actually does post the deadline? What then? You'll probably have maybe one shot, and if AoG is cult, you'll never have a chance at this rate (he's said privately that he's basically not got any time for CC right now, and doesn't even seem to be aware he's still in this game). As I said, not exactly a compelling reason for any townie to turn traitor. And all of that still doesn't answer the fact that the actual recruiter may not agree with your plan and might just recruit someone entirely different after the speedlynch if you can pull it off (which I doubt, obviously).

[Mr. Squirrel]

I'm so confused and I don't understand what the hell rodion is saying. Or why mets seems to be negotiating with him.

Why should town cooperate whatsoever with the cult? First of all, only one of us is going to win with the cult so the rest of us are just screwed. Second, to just give up seems to be a terrible way for the town to end this.

I say we make our best guess at the recruiter and lynch. If we fail, we have to hope for some lucky night actions to either block or redirect the recruitment onto another cult member.

[safariguy5]

I agree with PCM here, looking at the big picture, we have a good idea who is cleared and who might be cult, but we basically have 1 shot today for lynching someone and I think the night odds of roleblock + bus drive are better than the 1 lynch chance we have today.

I personally would like to find a lynch, but if everyone is set on going with pcm and straight no lynching, then I'm willing to go along with it.

[Mr. Squirrel]

I'm so confused and I don't understand what the hell rodion is saying. Or why mets seems to be negotiating with him.

EBWOP. Wait... I think I get it now. It's still retarded though. And mets has the right of it with his post just above mine. Town will inevitably lose if we negotiate.

[Rodion]

Unvote

Vote no lynch.

Mets, Squirrel - whoever votes no lynch NOW will be recruited and win.

[Metsfanmax]

I'm not negotiating with him, I'm pointing out all the holes in his plan so that it's clear that it's not worth it for any town member to cooperate with cult. Besides, we still have no confirmation that he's actually cult. He's obviously not pro-town, but still could possibly be a third party jester or simply a townie looking to be recruited for his service to the cult.

Fastposted by safari: I don't understand, why can't we lynch and roleblock+busdrive?

[Metsfanmax]

jim, if you're here, please unvote in case the cult is trying to speednolynch or something

[Rodion]

Unvote.

Deal's temporarily off. Useless if I can't be here to have the last word before the hammer.

[safariguy5]

I'm not negotiating with him, I'm pointing out all the holes in his plan so that it's clear that it's not worth it for any town member to cooperate with cult. Besides, we still have no confirmation that he's actually cult. He's obviously not pro-town, but still could possibly be a third party jester or simply a townie looking to be recruited for his service to the cult.

Fastposted by safari: I don't understand, why can't we lynch and roleblock+busdrive?

Depending on cult win conditions, sometimes cult wins if they equal the number of town remaining and sometimes cult wins if they outnumber the town. I'm not sure which Sax uses, but if we mislynch and hit town, then cult might win before we get a chance to go to night phase.

Ironically enough, if there's mafia left in the game, cult doesn't usually endgame as mafia can still NK the recruiter and tip balance away from cult. So we actually got rid of mafia too early in a sense.

[TheSaxlad]

Deadline is the 19th of June.

This is getting tasty. VC coming now.

[TheSaxlad]

Vote Count

# Metsfanmax
# Jimfinn
# commander9
# Rodion (1-rodion)
# Mr. Squirrel (1-com)
# safariguy5
# Army of God
# Pancakemix
# jeraado
#No lynch (2-pc,jimfinn,)

9 Alive , 5 to lynch

AoG will be replaced soon.

[jeraado]

ergh, I can't believe some people are willing to throw away a 1 in 4 (approx) chance in winning for a 1 in 4 chance of winning. Assuming it really is lylo then it's possible cult wont even get a last recruitment if you lynch a claimed townie, and even if they do, I'm guessing it really won't help your chances - if it is lylo then cult have no incentive to live up to their bargain. That's before we even get into just how scummy (in the non-mafia sense of the word) it is to be scrambling to be the one to sell out your side.

Town still have a good chance here. In fact, the fact that cult are willing to deal suggests they aren't totally convinced that they'll win. The prosecutor of a case doesn't put a deal in front of the defendant just before the jury comes back if they're certain of victory.

In the hopes that we still have a town who aren't a bunch of cowards, I'll have a decent read through tonight and post my thoughts. I can only hope that the remaining townies do the same.

Oh and Rodion, in case my post isn't clear, there's no way I'll be your sell-out