[Official] Breaking Bad Mafia 4/18 Blue. Town&DEA+rug win

[virus90]

Oh and i do agree with betiko on the jonty case. think jonty should read a bit more carefull or be more clear in his reasoning cause i dont get it

[Iron Butterfly]

I still don't see why you WOULD want a name claim from me. I KNOW the mafia were given fake claims, but how strong could they be?
There are quite a few "big names" out there, I would rather catch someone in a fake claim. I would rather keep it WIFOM to the mafia as well whether or not I am a big name like Walter White

You missed the part where MOB says that he will vote to lynch Rugbirn if three people die tonight. So if someone dies its on Rugbirn? The last I recall Rugbirn cant protect mafia and he has no idea who mafia are.

*** If there is poison in the flavor and 3 people die.

Explain how you know fake claims were given out.

If you are who you say you are you can easily switch yourself so you have a way to protect yourself.

You can just as easily be mafia as Town which is why I want a name. There is a stronger chance now for a counter claim as there is only a finite list of believable choices. You claim you want to catch someone in a trap but time is running out. We could very easily be down to 7 players tomorrow.

this has been one of the weirdest games I have been in, in what is suddenly excepted by players.

OMGUS votes with ensuing bandwagons, players who screw up there claim by with holding, misstating and changing their claims. You have been allowed to claim your the busdriver without a full claim.

[betiko]

Huh.... Something just crossed my mind. Heisenberg is a JOAT. Night 1 he investigated super and ended with a guilty result.
Night 2 he viged super and ended up killing CD
The cartel targeted CD
Gus targeted xstor

Just there can t be a SK... There can t be a third full time killer... Or this game is meant to end way too quickly

Fp

[TheForgivenOne]

@Iron Butterfly

Since I was asked about it in PM and I don't really have a problem announcing it, mafia do have fake claims.

Edit: His name is Mob Deadly

Perhaps you shouldn't skim... Loljk that was a long time ago he said that.

@Betiko. Huh, plausible, I guess. Seems like a longshot though.

[betiko]

I still don't see why you WOULD want a name claim from me. I KNOW the mafia were given fake claims, but how strong could they be?
There are quite a few "big names" out there, I would rather catch someone in a fake claim. I would rather keep it WIFOM to the mafia as well whether or not I am a big name like Walter White

You missed the part where MOB says that he will vote to lynch Rugbirn if three people die tonight. So if someone dies its on Rugbirn? The last I recall Rugbirn cant protect mafia and he has no idea who mafia are.

*** If there is poison in the flavor and 3 people die.

Explain how you know fake claims were given out.

If you are who you say you are you can easily switch yourself so you have a way to protect yourself.

You can just as easily be mafia as Town which is why I want a name. There is a stronger chance now for a counter claim as there is only a finite list of believable choices. You claim you want to catch someone in a trap but time is running out. We could very easily be down to 7 players tomorrow.

this has been one of the weirdest games I have been in, in what is suddenly excepted by players.

OMGUS votes with ensuing bandwagons, players who screw up there claim by with holding, misstating and changing their claims. You have been allowed to claim your the busdriver without a full claim.

There is a bus driver from what was said in the scene. Strike said he gave fake claims to mafia in the thread on day 1 if i remember well. This is common knowledge.
To be fair, given that there are fake claims the usefulness of holding the character name is questionable. I m more interested to know what information he got from the meth, because if he dies tonight this information will be gone forever... But at least we ll know the name of his corpse lol.

Fp

[Iron Butterfly]

@Iron Butterfly

Since I was asked about it in PM and I don't really have a problem announcing it, mafia do have fake claims.

Edit: His name is Mob Deadly

Perhaps you shouldn't skim... Loljk that was a long time ago he said that.

@Betiko. Huh, plausible, I guess. Seems like a longshot though.

Yup sorry i missed that.

Never mind.

[Rugbirn]

Betty,
Those numbers are just my gut feeling (nothing mathematical) as to the balance of the game up to this point. I not sure of Super's explaination of N1 (see below). N2, however, seems pretty cut and dried to me. I protected Hank. MoB swapped Hank with Super, my protection on Super went away cause he was cartel. Cartel targeted Hank and killed Super (their own Don). Town vig (who I believe to be Walt) targeted Super and killed Hank. Mafia (Gus) targeted Xstor and NKed him.

N1 could have three scenarios:
Scenario #1 Town vig does NOT take action cause he is not sure who to target. In which case Super's explanation (or something real similar) is likely.

Scenario #2 Town vig NKs PCM. Cartel/Mafia (don't know which one) targets XStor but my protection saves him (which implcates TFO as scum)
Cartel/mafia (opposite faction) kills Neb (Town Doc). Neb and PCM killers could be switched (i.e. vig could have killed Neb & Cartel killing PCM). If this was the case (switched), this would make TFO = Gus

Scenario #3 Cartel/Mafia target same individual (Neb) Vig kills PCM

Scenario #3 is the most unlikely due to 17 players at the time (we lynched Anark D1). Cartel/Mafia targeting the same player odds-wise seems to be a stretch.

[Rugbirn]

Betty,
Those numbers are just my gut feeling (nothing mathematical) as to the balance of the game up to this point. I not sure of Super's explaination of N1 (see below). N2, however, seems pretty cut and dried to me. I protected Hank. MoB swapped Hank with Super, my protection on Super went away cause he was cartel. Cartel targeted Hank and killed Super (their own Don). Town vig (who I believe to be Walt) targeted Super and killed Hank. Mafia (Gus) targeted Xstor and NKed him.

N1 could have three scenarios:
Scenario #1 Town vig does NOT take action cause he is not sure who to target. In which case Super's explanation (or something real similar) is likely.

Scenario #2 Town vig NKs PCM. Cartel/Mafia (don't know which one) targets XStor but my protection saves him (which implcates TFO as scum)
Cartel/mafia (opposite faction) kills Neb (Town Doc). Neb and PCM killers could be switched (i.e. vig could have killed Neb & Cartel killing PCM). If this was the case (switched), this would make TFO = Gus

Scenario #3 Cartel/Mafia target same individual (Neb) Vig kills PCM

Scenario #3 is the most unlikely due to 17 players at the time (we lynched Anark D1). Cartel/Mafia targeting the same player odds-wise seems to be a stretch.

[Metsfanmax]

OMGUS votes with ensuing bandwagons, players who screw up there claim by with holding, misstating and changing their claims. You have been allowed to claim your the busdriver without a full claim.

I'm inclined to agree here. If mafia have fakeclaims, I don't think town loses a later play by having your claim your name now -- since if they're smart they'll stick to what they're given.

I'm also not ready to let greg off the hook here -- I just really can't decide who to go after today. Combo would be an obvious fakeclaim to give to mafia if Vanco was the other one.

[betiko]

OMGUS votes with ensuing bandwagons, players who screw up there claim by with holding, misstating and changing their claims. You have been allowed to claim your the busdriver without a full claim.

I'm inclined to agree here. If mafia have fakeclaims, I don't think town loses a later play by having your claim your name now -- since if they're smart they'll stick to what they're given.

I'm also not ready to let greg off the hook here -- I just really can't decide who to go after today. Combo would be an obvious fakeclaim to give to mafia if Vanco was the other one.

hum yup kind of. badger was much more important, i barely remember combo. but combo, badger, and the pete guy being vt could fit... and could be a good fakeclaim. As i said before, I don't think it's necesairy to hold the nameclaim with thefakeclaims, but mostly it's not necesairy to hold the meth result as it could be good information for later. if you die, and I think you are a top target for mafia along with rug, we'll never know about your action that costed you not to vote today.

[gregwolf121]

Huh.... Something just crossed my mind. Heisenberg is a JOAT. Night 1 he investigated super and ended with a guilty result.
Night 2 he viged super and ended up killing CD
The cartel targeted CD
Gus targeted xstor

Just there can t be a SK... There can t be a third full time killer... Or this game is meant to end way too quickly

Fp

my only problem with this theory is that super was a godfather, any investigation against him would show innocent. other than that its a sound theory, i would agree with what others have said before, in no way is a vt more valuable than a protective role, even a third party one. about the only use of a vt is to be NK in place of a power role, unfortuneately now that i have claimed my usefulness to town is nearly zero, all i got now is my vote, and my insights, which so far haven't amounted to much.

[betiko]

Huh.... Something just crossed my mind. Heisenberg is a JOAT. Night 1 he investigated super and ended with a guilty result.
Night 2 he viged super and ended up killing CD
The cartel targeted CD
Gus targeted xstor

Just there can t be a SK... There can t be a third full time killer... Or this game is meant to end way too quickly

Fp

my only problem with this theory is that super was a godfather, any investigation against him would show innocent. other than that its a sound theory, i would agree with what others have said before, in no way is a vt more valuable than a protective role, even a third party one. about the only use of a vt is to be NK in place of a power role, unfortuneately now that i have claimed my usefulness to town is nearly zero, all i got now is my vote, and my insights, which so far haven't amounted to much.

Oh yes you are totally right about the GF. I m just trying to convince myself that 1 of the 3 killers is a good guy, otherwise we re screwed. I wonder if the cartel s WC is to eliminate the mafia instead of town? Or mafia to eliminate the cartel?? Both factions against town + an evil killer...?
Or could hank and gomez work together, one investigates the other kills on the same night?
This 3 kills thing really bugs me. Come on, we are day 3, 3 scum are dead and it s still looking bad for town.. Scums get killed each night but it looks like pure luck. This would be pretty much over without that insane luck... Yet it s an official game and balance checked. I really don t get it.

[Metsfanmax]

Oh yes you are totally right about the GF. I m just trying to convince myself that 1 of the 3 killers is a good guy, otherwise we re screwed. I wonder if the cartel s WC is to eliminate the mafia instead of town? Or mafia to eliminate the cartel??

To engage in some flavor spec, this would fit in with the idea of the show. The cartel and Gus need the 'town' to sell their meth to, so perhaps their goal is to eliminate each other.

[virus90]

i think both the cartel and the mob are supposed to kill all non-members. cant picture them winning together.

[betiko]

Well xstor was a deliberate kill from gus from what I understand, and I guess he thought he was town.. And town needs enemies. At the very least one of those factions has to kill town, most likely the red mafia? I doubt town and cartel could both win killing all the red mafia.

[Iron Butterfly]

In theory we have 5 factions.

2 mafia factions, Town, DEA and Survivor.

First who would get to kill? Both mafia factions of course.

Is there a poisoner in the game? I highly doubt there is a poisoner as an active role as that would make everything badly imbalanced. Three killing factions against Town? again I think not.

I will agree that there is most likely a JOAT or Vig. While there are many sociopaths in the series I find it highly unlikely there is a serial killer.

With that said I believe we only have two faction kills to worry about.

[Rugbirn]

Rodion, you said:
From my interpretation of the flavour, Keener got vigged. The interpretation starts with Gus killing Hank (because the guy who killed Hank was tasting "bitter sorrow"), which means the Cartel killed Stor (makes sense since Stor suspected Keener and all eyes would probably be busy looking at CD) and Keener was killed by someone else (a town vig perhaps). Anyway, MoB, If you're swapping with the intention of keeping someone alive, you need to make sure you are swapping them with the least likely players to get NKed. Anyone who's suspected could be vigged. I think I'd have swapped CD with Mets or Jonty last night, but it's too late to talk about that now.

I re-read the N2 scene and I was wrong (huh - imagine that), and yes Gus (mafia) killed Hank. We now know that my protection was negated by the bus. If MoB is telling the truth about the bus, then Mafia would have had to target Super in order to kill Hank. Now Super got killed as well due to the bus. So someone would have had to target Hank to kill Super. Town vig would NOT have done this (target Hank), so it must have been Cartel. This leaves XStor being killer by town vig, and I'm not buying this. Everyone seemed to know that XStor was town. So do we have another busser? or is MoB telling the truth?

[Rugbirn]

I guess I have to ask MoB: Who did you bus N1? Who is your role? Answering these questions should not matter to you at this point, as the only way you stay alive is with my protection (if you are town), or by bussing yourself - and your bussing partner needs to be a better pick next time!!

[betiko]

Rodion, you said:
From my interpretation of the flavour, Keener got vigged. The interpretation starts with Gus killing Hank (because the guy who killed Hank was tasting "bitter sorrow"), which means the Cartel killed Stor (makes sense since Stor suspected Keener and all eyes would probably be busy looking at CD) and Keener was killed by someone else (a town vig perhaps). Anyway, MoB, If you're swapping with the intention of keeping someone alive, you need to make sure you are swapping them with the least likely players to get NKed. Anyone who's suspected could be vigged. I think I'd have swapped CD with Mets or Jonty last night, but it's too late to talk about that now.

I re-read the N2 scene and I was wrong (huh - imagine that), and yes Gus (mafia) killed Hank. We now know that my protection was negated by the bus. If MoB is telling the truth about the bus, then Mafia would have had to target Super in order to kill Hank. Now Super got killed as well due to the bus. So someone would have had to target Hank to kill Super. Town vig would NOT have done this (target Hank), so it must have been Cartel. This leaves XStor being killer by town vig, and I'm not buying this. Everyone seemed to know that XStor was town. So do we have another busser? or is MoB telling the truth?

On what grounds do you assume that gus went for hank???
Did you even follow today s conversation??
Xstor/walt jr got poisoned from the scene. So we assumed from that flavour that gus and walt are the 2 characters from the show that use poison.

Try to make sense with stuff you ve said before will you.. It s like you have a brain reset every now and then.

[Rugbirn]

Or, as IB mentions there is a JOAT or SK. If there are three kills N3, it must be a SK (cause town vig would NOT have targeted XStor N2). If it was a JOAT targeting XStor N2 he must be mafia/cartel aligned. There is no poisoner because Strike said my role (unless I was role-blocked N1 -unlikely) would have protected XStor from poison N1.

[Rugbirn]

Betty,
Go back to page 53 and re-read the N2 scene. It says: "The town toasted their victory over the day while the mafia retreated to lick its wounds. Two down so early, they had not anticipated this happening so quickly." So it definately implys Mafia, and assuming only one left, it has to be Gus. "Town was toasting" cause we had just lynched IAC - mafia watcher. "Two down so early" means PCM and IAC killed. WhAT PART OF THIS DO YOU NOT UNDERSTAND?

[Rugbirn]

If what you are saying about Walt Jr and the poisoning being Gus, then we have 4 mafia, or Gus killing two people in one night.

[Rugbirn]

Betty just re-read my lasy three posts, (over and over if you have to)...you will eventually get it. Don't feel bad, it took me awhile to figure it out. But based on the N2 scene read, and believing MoB bussing Hank w/ Super:

1. Mafia had to target Super in order to kill Hank (from scene description), I said Gus based on three mafia members
2. Cartel had to target Hank to kill Super (could NOT be Town vig), or could be Mafia/Cartel aligned JOAT, or lone SK
3. This leaves Walt Jr's death. We know it wasn't poison (from what I said above) although the scene indicated it for flavor. Again, this would NOT be a Town vig killing XStor.
4. So this leaves these theories on who killed Walt Jr.: Mafia/Cartel aligned JOAT (this would require a 4th mafia member), lone SK, or Cartel (depending on who killed in #2) OR, XStor got bussed and Town vig killed him by mistake, OR maybe he was poisoned FIGURATIVELY by the Meth Dealer (remember Jesse's girlfriend died of Meth OD).

Unless XStor got bussed N2, I do NOT think we have a Town vig.

[betiko]

Reread the xstor death scene please.

Other than this the whole cab story is quite confusing.
I m really wondering if what rug and mob have been saying makes any sense...
Particularly mob as from the scene do you guys think that CD and super could ve been switched with one another??

Night 2 End Scene

The town toasted their victory over the day while the mafia retreated to lick its wounds. Two down so early, they had not anticipated this happening so quickly. Yet the game was still young and everyone was about figure out just how much could happen in one night.

As the drinks went down, a few of the men their only tasted bitter sorrow. Excusing himself from the festivities earlier, he got in the cab with the driver who had brought him there to take off. Before the night was through, he planned to go out for some quick "business". As the cab turned right, one of the revelers was there, the man in back had to focus but he quickly recognized this man as the DEA agent who had brought in Mike the night before.

Outside the cab, Hank toasted his victory with his fellow agents, the captain even mentioned a possible promotions for the big bust. Hank excused himself from the group to go look for his wife, separated from the rest, he did not notice as the cab came barreling down on him until he was flipping over it's front window. Everyone turned to get to the body as the cab sped off but it was too late for Hank.

Cooldeals-Hank Schrader-DEA Cop has been killed.



Unfortunately for everyone, the night was only just beginning. Elsewhere, a teenage boy on crutches was drinking non-alcoholic champagne to celebrate the occasion. He never noticed as the poison tablet had been slipped into one of the glasses. As he began to feel sick, he staggered to the bathroom but only made it half way at first. Thinking he had just stumbled a party goer went to pick him up but backed up when they saw the dead look in his eyes.

x-stor-x-Walter "Flynn" White Jr-Town Tracker (and yes Mets, I'm aware this one doesn't make much flavor sense ).



Meanwhile, back in a Mexican villa, a drug lord was sipping on tequila when he had heard the news of the death. Feeling content, he went out for a leisurely walk when he noticed a car in the driveway. He was curious at first but his curiosity turned to fear as the man rushed him. He attempted to flee and call for guards but he tripped and was quickly pummeled to death by the assailant.

Superkeener-Don Eladio-Cartel Godfather has been killed.



The town surveyed the damage, three dead in total and one a definitive enemy. How will they react?

It is now Day 3. With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch. Deadline will be Friday the 28th.

[Rugbirn]

Maybe there is an "instant poisoner" which really is the same as a night killer? But XStor could not have been poisoned N+1 unless I was role blocked N1. This is a role confirmation from Strike.

I think the cab vehicle kill of Hank is to indicate Gus' stature in the Mafia with him sitting in the back of the cab; nothing more/nothing less. The statement " Before the night was through, he planned to go out for some quick "business". seems to indicate to me that Gus had two night actions N2? Then this night business would be the poisoning of Walt Jr.