The SquirrelMasters' Quest (25/25) Night 1~A quick getaway

[TheGeneral2112]

Wow, that's an amazing way to skew the numbers. You increased the chance of killing scum by 3% because 3 townies died overnight. It's only "better odds" because scum just got a +3 jump on us in one night. Are you that certain that everything's going to come out in night information? With 25 players, what are the odds of the power roles actually getting good hits on N1 (especially when you're conceding that 3 of those 17 are going to die)? I'd say there's a better chance we end up in the same situation (maybe a couple WIFOM watcher/tracker results), but with a smaller town:scum ratio.

Nope.

Not very good, but it gets better as we proceed. But if we end up with ccs we have a 50% chance. Which is a hell of a lot better than any figures I posted earlier.

Hitting a PR with a RL is stupid.????
Hitting a post restriction with a real life is stupid? What do you mean?

You play mafia often? Power Role/Random Lynch

My question for you now, general, is how are you going to help town? By not attacking? By surrendering? If that is the case then you are a useless townie. If you are a useless townie, then we will kill you, because your life is worth the same as the scums.

Even if I was fool, there is no such this as a townie worth the same as scum. I explained how not voting for a D1 RL is helping the town. If you didn't understand/read, then fine.

You are totally wrong about discussion. The only way to know who scum are is discussion. Relying on cops is not only dangerous, but is a recipe for a boring game.

1. How am I wrong about discussion? I said a ML of a PR is NOT worth it for a little discussion. Also, mafia isn't about "boring" or not. It is a psych game to see if the uninformed majority can defeat the informed minority. It is largely a psych game and partly a math game.

Here is the thing. You are not going to convince many players here that a day 1 lynch is a bad thing. You are going to be lynched today unless you vote for someone or actually contribute to making cases. So you have 2 options: you can be stubborn, or you can play the game the way it is meant.

I'm not trying to convince anyone. I realize different players have different playing strategies. I see that you are threatening me with a lynch. Typical. Since you have nothing concrete to go on, you are advocating for a ML and proving my point.

If you are town, which I can assume you are, you are going to be lynched today. Many scum will easily hop on your BW. This will not help us at all. Basically, what I am saying is that if you are town, why can't you play along with town? Your attitude is one of stubborness. To put some words in your mouth: "Unless they agree that I am right, I don't want to play with them anyways and I hope town loses". That is the vibe you are sending. What we want is your vibe to be: "Ok, maybe they are wrong, but if working together with people is what I have to do to ensure a town victory, then I will do it".

Maybe we just have a case of miscommunication. I don't need anyone to agree with me. I have my own strategies. I don't lynch unless I see a scum slip. Haven't seen one, voting for NL. You are putting words in my mouth, maybe you should stop.

Attack jonty125 please help me commit suicide

And a serious FOS or WS (Warning Shot) at TheGeneral2112 for suggesting a no lynch or surrender so early in D1.

Eh, whatever.

Ah, the old nl debate. No there isn't any point in a no lynch. Yes it's likely we will mislynch. It's worth it as the point of the game is to create discussion.

Lol @ all of you. When I have time I will explain my nl opinions, but right now on on my phone. Just wanted to say, scummy bandwagon is scummy.

Calling people who disagree you scummy and leaving it at that is pretty scummy in itself.

Every game or so someone tries to argue in favour of a no lynch and is either rebuked or lynched. What's strange is the number of people wanting to go instantly to night.
Sully in particular doesn't seem interested in discussions, metagaming here, and is rushing to night.

I Wave a Chair in Sully's, general's and ghostly's direction.

Alrighty, what have we here? The point of the game is to create discussion? *Buzzer* WRONG! The point of the game is to lynch scum.

Discussion can help us to find some scum... you want to try finding scum by night actions only?

Never said that. I am only talking about a D1 NL. I don't advocate NL for every day until cop outs with guilty. I do think that D1 when there is nothing to go on, a NL is best IMO.

Unless you are scum, in which case the point is to act town. Is a ML worth some discussion? Well that depends on the ML. What happens when we hit a power role? Like a doctor or a tracker? What happens if we kill our vig? Or maybe we accidentally kill another PR. Here is the point, hitting a PR with a RL is stupid.

- hence why discussion is important. you give people chance to claim if necessary and if they are an important power role then you back your a** off and get someone else.

The reason I may look scummy is because IDGAF if I do. Why? Because I am not preoccupied with looking townie. I'm not playing a part. I'm preoccupied with lynching scum. -

that's a nice way to win friends and influence people.

I actually liked that book, but I did say earlier that I am not preoccupied with my appearance. Good townies will hunt scum, not bitch at other townies for not acting townie enough.

Actual point: Assuming a rather balanced setup, I could see 17 town/6 mafia/2 3rd party. Chances of lynching town today on RL are 68% Chances of hitting scum are 24%. Our chances of lynching scum tomorrow?
Assuming a no lynch today, mafia kills 1 townie overnight & Townie accidentally kills 1 townie overnight & 3rd party recruits 1 townie? 63% chance of random lynching town, 27% random lynching mafia.

We have just decreased our chance of killing a townie by 5% and increased our chance of killing mafia by 3%. I don't care what is "customary" here, you really can't argue with the math. I don't support a random lynch and I won't support a random lynch.

All of you feel free to finish your bandwagon now.

we would have decreased out chance of killing a townie by 5% by reducing our townies by (3/17) = 17.6%

You're right I can't really argue with the math.

I'm hoping you are trolling... Assuming 3rd party cults, Mafia kills town, Vig role kills town and we don't lynch. 25 total minus 2 3rd party minus 6 mafia equals 17. 3 minus 17 equals 14. 14/22 equals 63%. Original townie % is 17/25 or 68%. The difference is 5%. Your math is off.

Attack TheGeneral2112

oh and leaving that math behind - the party is 4 people

Our Heroes:

The SquirrelMasters are an adventuring party of four members.

... where did you come up with a figure of 6 for your mafia element? Do you know something we don't? Or are you just skimming? or trying to hide something else?

Stop skimming. I said assuming a typical setup. I was using these numbers for easy math.

[jonty125]

Hitting a post restriction with a real life is stupid? What do you mean?

That sounds pretty hilarious to me.

Actual point: Assuming a rather balanced setup, I could see 17 town/6 mafia/2 3rd party.

If you allow me to argue these numbers for a moment. This game is a little bit special when it comes to balance. The four man adventuring party is the mafia group. Accordingly I don't think that there are 6 mafia. I suppose there is a chance of a Spy, or a vampire that could bolster their numbers, but we don't know on that vector. As for third party, this game has unique endgame mechanics. It ends in a mafia victory if the VIP is killed. In a setup like that, I could see a significant amount of survivors, but I don't know how well any other third parties would actually fit in. An SK would find his win condition of killing everybody nearly impossible to achieve. Cult has similar issues, since they normally win by outnumbering the town after all scum all dead, it would be severely handicapped by the instant win condition. The cult could be going along, slipping by undetected, growing it's numbers, and then BAM scum killed the VIP, game over cult loses.

On a completely different note, I must express some measure of concern about the bandwagon building up on the General. I think that he has become too easy of a target here, and people are now hopping on it without thinking and hopping too avoid the consequences that will result. (Also, I fear a rage quit.)

See I wouldn't have thought about survivors been in this game until you just kindly brought them up which I think could possibly be you hinting that you are one. This is all WIFOM but when saf was bringing up possible set-ups in Mr.S' Sweeny Todd Mafia he kept forgetting the VT's (me being one) and I kept reminding him about them.

[TheGeneral2112]

1) in all mafia games i have played with you, you're rude to very rude, calm down, it's a game. ( i know i can be pretty aggressive too, but at least i'm trying not to be rude, i'm not sure if people think of me as rude, but really, i have even seen you yell at mods in a not really polite fashion.)

You've played how many games with me? None? You are currently playing two games with me? And what stage are those games in? Day 1 and Day 2? Mmmkaythen...

2) you claim to be trying to lynch people, 'preoccupied' being so even yet you surrender almost immediately.

Let me correct you before you begin. I don't claim to be trying to lynch people. I claim to be trying to lynch scum.

but let me quote you on something funny:

Is a ML worth some discussion? Well that depends on the ML.

how would you know the difference, if you don't allow for any discussion by hiding in a corner the first few seconds of a fight?

Hiding in corners doesn't help anyone, especially f everyone does it, that will not give us any information, and ultimatly will not prevent a misslynch, it will only delay the inevitable, and make it strike much harder when it hits. It's better to misslynch day 1 where we still have all options available and plenty of time to figure out what's going on, then to have a no lynch for the first few days until being forced to lynch someone while half of town is laying dead on the ground allready.

the best way to find scum (especially early game) is through discussion, some lies may not hold up against facts revealed later thoughout the game, someone might simply slip up, etc. if we don't discuss, the game will bleed to death and town will be confused.

Stop with this hiding in corners bullshit. I offered a simple mathematical explanation as to why I vote the way I do. I never said anything about a few days, I said D1 only.

The reason I may look scummy is because IDGAF if I do. Why? Because I am not preoccupied with looking townie. I'm not playing a part. I'm preoccupied with lynching scum.

3) if you "DGAF" if you look scum or not, you're probably not of much help to town, you'd care about it if you had a power role, since you don't care about it, i suppose you're not of much use since you'll not be a power role. Give me 1 good reason not to attack you right now.

I'm not of much help to town because of my appearances? So if I find scum, I'm not much help. You also know that I don't have a PR? Do you think about the things you type before you type them?

Let me move forward a tad. I didn't call anyone scummy for disagreeing with me. I called people scummy for jumping on a BW. That's what is scummy. As for your claim that I am "leaving it at that", I CLEARLY said I was on my phone. What's your deal, man? Are you trying to build a poor case for a lynch? Looking to thin the town a little bit?

4) it's only early Day 1, any and all cases will be weak at best, and most of the bandwagons are either jokes, or to see what happens when we apply some pressure, some people crack under pressure and that is exactly what we look for on day 1, this gives us much more information later in the game. Joining in the fights on day 1 is neccesary, even if you're not sure why you're fighting, it's just needed and fun too. If you randomly pick fights with people in later days it is likely scummy, but that's a whole 'nother subject.

I don't have any joke votes to make.

Actual point: Assuming a rather balanced setup, I could see 17 town/6 mafia/2 3rd party. Chances of lynching town today on RL are 68% Chances of hitting scum are 24%. Our chances of lynching scum tomorrow?

i don't know what made you think there's 6 mafia, while the opening post clearly desribed a party of 4 'heroes' FYI those 4 heroes need to die in order for 'town' to win. those 4 would be considered 'mafia'. As you pointed out by the sheer size of this game, having only 4 evil heroes would be imbalanced, however:

- We are not sure if there's any 3rd party yet (which is more then likely)
- It's even more likely those 'heroes' will have really powerfull abilities, making them more dangerous then 4 normal mafia members would be
- I may be missing some possible theories as well.

no matter what math you use to predict a townie or a scum lynch though, 1 townie is NOT equal to 1 scum, scum is always more powerfull then town, so trading 1 for 1 is ALWAYS a win for town, and often even trading 2 for 1 is a reasonable option.

I never said 1 townie is equal to 1 scum. I have no idea why you would imply I said that.

[TheGeneral2112]

Others have already jumped in and argued my point. However there is a very easy way to show how laughably wrong your argument is.

You're proposing that town do nothing, because once mafia makes up a greater proportion of the population it will be mathematically more probable to lynch them. So at what point does town stop twiddling their thumbs while mafia offs them at night, one by one? Mafia is a race, between mafia trying to whittle down town, while confusing and controlling them, and town trying to discover mafia. You're proposing that town gives mafia a nice headstart. Thanks, but no thanks.

More skimming? I advocated a D1 NL, not a forever and ever NL.

Attack general.
Either you're trying to hurt town's chances, in which case obviously you should be lynched, or you are refusing to participate in the game and therefore that would make you useless and only helping mafia.
You're like a football(socccer for dirty americans) player who refuses to pass, dribble or move because that isn't the point of the game. Sure the point of football is to get the ball into the goal, but you have to work to get it there.

Then I would be like a ball that refuses to do a header. It's flash, sometimes looks cool, sometimes bounces in the wrong direction, but I believe kicking and dribbling are better than trying to do a shitty header.

[TheGeneral2112]

On a completely different note, I must express some measure of concern about the bandwagon building up on the General. I think that he has become too easy of a target here, and people are now hopping on it without thinking and hopping too avoid the consequences that will result. (Also, I fear a rage quit.)

Finally someone steps up to try to bring the BW to a halt. Wondering if that would happen or not. Also, I'm not ragequitting. I'm only out if I am made to claim and lynched/NK'd.

[TheGeneral2112]

You're playing in Soundman's First Mafia. It's D2 there. I read all your D1 posts and you never suggested a no-lynch/surrender. Your point that by waiting we'll get more accurate lynches later on in the game could be used there as well (the more townies that die, the easier it gets to hit scum later on). The question is: why did your behaviour change 180º from one game to another?

My behavior hasn't changed. If you must know, Soundman PM'd me several times urging me to join in the joke votes. I told him no. I only began posting when I thought I had a scum lead. Then I jumped on it until I had a scumtell. Then I led the successful lynch of the mafia godfather. My behavior didn't change. I haven't seen anything to pique my scumdar in this game today. So I am voting NL until/if I do see anything.

[jonty125]

What's with the 4 posts

[DoomYoshi]

General, I could argue that the numbers you posted don't actually support your point (Iliad just explained why in his latest post), but instead I only have one question to you.

You're playing in Soundman's First Mafia. It's D2 there. I read all your D1 posts and you never suggested a no-lynch/surrender. Your point that by waiting we'll get more accurate lynches later on in the game could be used there as well (the more townies that die, the easier it gets to hit scum later on). The question is: why did your behaviour change 180º from one game to another?

Bringing current other games into this fold is totally unnecessary and rude. If he were to respond to your point, he would violate one of the rules of the other game.


[quote=general]Never said that. I am only talking about a D1 NL. I don't advocate NL for every day until cop outs with guilty. I do think that D1 when there is nothing to go on, a NL is best IMO.[/quote]

Ok, so night 1, nothing happens then day 2 what do we have to go on? What makes day 1 different than any other day. Until you can answer that, there is no chance of you making it past today.

[spiesr]

Stop skimming. I said assuming a typical setup. I was using these numbers for easy math.

Well, when you said "assuming a typical setup," it is understandable that some people would interpret that statement to mean that you are assuming that this game actually has a typical setup.
Anyhow, if we are going to use math to weigh the advantages of different possible courses of action we probably should make sure that the numbers used reflect our best knowledge of this game, so that the result can be more accurate.

[TheGeneral2112]

DoomYoshi, stop threatening me.

[drunkmonkey]

You're playing in Soundman's First Mafia. It's D2 there. I read all your D1 posts and you never suggested a no-lynch/surrender. Your point that by waiting we'll get more accurate lynches later on in the game could be used there as well (the more townies that die, the easier it gets to hit scum later on). The question is: why did your behaviour change 180º from one game to another?

My behavior hasn't changed. If you must know, Soundman PM'd me several times urging me to join in the joke votes. I told him no. I only began posting when I thought I had a scum lead. Then I jumped on it until I had a scumtell. Then I led the successful lynch of the mafia godfather. My behavior didn't change. I haven't seen anything to pique my scumdar in this game today. So I am voting NL until/if I do see anything.

Can I ask how you got a scum lead? Was it by everyone sitting around waiting for scum to give themselves up? Or through discussing possible scenarios?

[DoomYoshi]

DoomYoshi, stop threatening me.

Why?

[TheGeneral2112]

Stop skimming. I said assuming a typical setup. I was using these numbers for easy math.

Well, when you said "assuming a typical setup," it is understandable that some people would interpret that statement to mean that you are assuming that this game actually has a typical setup.
Anyhow, if we are going to use math to weigh the advantages of different possible courses of action we probably should make sure that the numbers used reflect our best knowledge of this game, so that the result can be more accurate.

True. If I really get bored I will crunch a bunch of numbers and outline results in a graph. I doubt I will get that bored.

[TheGeneral2112]

DoomYoshi, stop threatening me.

Why?

Because that isn't the way you find scum. By threatening a player with a different strategy than you? Seriously?

[TheGeneral2112]

You're playing in Soundman's First Mafia. It's D2 there. I read all your D1 posts and you never suggested a no-lynch/surrender. Your point that by waiting we'll get more accurate lynches later on in the game could be used there as well (the more townies that die, the easier it gets to hit scum later on). The question is: why did your behaviour change 180º from one game to another?

My behavior hasn't changed. If you must know, Soundman PM'd me several times urging me to join in the joke votes. I told him no. I only began posting when I thought I had a scum lead. Then I jumped on it until I had a scumtell. Then I led the successful lynch of the mafia godfather. My behavior didn't change. I haven't seen anything to pique my scumdar in this game today. So I am voting NL until/if I do see anything.

Can I ask how you got a scum lead? Was it by everyone sitting around waiting for scum to give themselves up? Or through discussing possible scenarios?

By reading and not voting.

[DoomYoshi]

DoomYoshi, stop threatening me.

Why?

Because that isn't the way you find scum. By threatening a player with a different strategy than you? Seriously?

How would you propose we find scum?

[TheGeneral2112]

DoomYoshi, stop threatening me.

Why?

Because that isn't the way you find scum. By threatening a player with a different strategy than you? Seriously?

How would you propose we find scum?

Reread the last few pages. Then we can talk.

[DoomYoshi]

All your arguments are the same and none of them follow. So, in your last post you say you find scum by reading and not voting. So, if everyone played like you, how would we find scum?

[zimmah]

(Also, I fear a rage quit.)

might be right, but seriously, i have started to think the selfproclaimed 'general' is either a child, or acting like one, and the gap between how awesome he thinks he is, and how awesome he really is, is like infinite. i don't reall ythink that type of player s any good to any mafia game. if he keeps playing like this, he'll be either lynched or NK'd in all his games until he either changes his behavior, or stops playing altogether, or people may even refuse to join any game he's participating in.

i don't like trash-talking about other people, but really, there's a line you shouldn't cross, and general is coming really close.

fastposted times 9 or so.

also, i will not comment on your past behavior again general, as you claimed you've changed (or trying to) so i'll give you the benefit of doubt here. (not saying i won't attack you though, as you still may be scum either way)

@DoomYoshi i think it's just natural to compare the STYLE of a certain player to the STYLE he is using in this and older (recent) games, this may give you an idea of how he plays in certain situations.

and

By reading and not voting.

there's not much to read, if noone votes and discusses.

fastposted 3 times extra again.

[drunkmonkey]

All your arguments are the same and none of them follow. So, in your last post you say you find scum by reading and not voting. So, if everyone played like you, how would we find scum?

This is what I was trying to find the words for. I'm not sure if General is playing scummy or just too stubborn to do anything unless we play the way he thinks mafia is supposed to be played.

[spiesr]

Can I ask how you got a scum lead? Was it by everyone sitting around waiting for scum to give themselves up? Or through discussing possible scenarios?

By reading and not voting.

The general vibe on this site is that such activities can be considered scummy. The idea behind it is that if people hang back cases won't be constructed, arguments won't be had, and scumslips won't be made. Since scum are usually those who have the most to fear from scumslips, the idea follows that those hanging back either have something to hide or don't want meaningful discussion to happen. The merits of this philosophy are debatable, but it is a fairly entrenched part of the local meta-game.

[DoomYoshi]

4. The game will not be discussed outside this thread, unless your role specifically says you can.

This is a rule from soundman's first mafia. Since the general discussed what he was doing in that game in this game, he is in direct violation. That will probably result in a modkill, with the lynch here means that gen is not going many places.

@drunk: It really is a matter of stubborness. Unfortunately, whether or not he is town, now he is going to die.

[jonty125]

General why do you keep triple posting

[spiesr]

@DoomYoshi i think it's just natural to compare the STYLE of a certain player to the STYLE he is using in this and older (recent) games, this may give you an idea of how he plays in certain situations.

DoomYoshi's point was that he shouldn't really be discussing other game that are currently active here. Discussing finished games which cannot be influenced by anything said here is more or less an acceptable mete-gaming tactic.

This is what I was trying to find the words for. I'm not sure if General is playing scummy or just too stubborn to do anything unless we play the way he thinks mafia is supposed to be played.

This raises some interesting questions. Is the way he plays the game wrong? It is different than the strategy used by the majority of players here, but the majority strategy is self reinforcing. By considering other game play styles to be wrongish and leading to clashes between those who use different styles, the majority style purges others from the forum by either forcing those who practices different ideologies to convert or simply driving them away. The effect of this on the mafia community is probably worth a discussion, but is beyond the scope of this thread. Maybe someone wants to start something up on the discussion board?

[trinicardinal]

Actual point: Assuming a rather balanced setup, I could see 17 town/6 mafia/2 3rd party. Chances of lynching town today on RL are 68% Chances of hitting scum are 24%. Our chances of lynching scum tomorrow?
Assuming a no lynch today, mafia kills 1 townie overnight & Townie accidentally kills 1 townie overnight & 3rd party recruits 1 townie? 63% chance of random lynching town, 27% random lynching mafia.

We have just decreased our chance of killing a townie by 5% and increased our chance of killing mafia by 3%. I don't care what is "customary" here, you really can't argue with the math. I don't support a random lynch and I won't support a random lynch.

All of you feel free to finish your bandwagon now.

we would have decreased out chance of killing a townie by 5% by reducing our townies by (3/17) = 17.6%

You're right I can't really argue with the math.

I'm hoping you are trolling... Assuming 3rd party cults, Mafia kills town, Vig role kills town and we don't lynch. 25 total minus 2 3rd party minus 6 mafia equals 17. 3 minus 17 equals 14. 14/22 equals 63%. Original townie % is 17/25 or 68%. The difference is 5%. Your math is off.

Attack TheGeneral2112

oh and leaving that math behind - the party is 4 people

Our Heroes:

The SquirrelMasters are an adventuring party of four members.

... where did you come up with a figure of 6 for your mafia element? Do you know something we don't? Or are you just skimming? or trying to hide something else?

Stop skimming. I said assuming a typical setup. I was using these numbers for easy math.[/quote]

a) I was not skimming - you seem to be the one doing that... Why use a make believe figure of 6 when you have been Given a FACT of 4 or did you skim that? You have been called out on this point by several people. How is it easier maths to say 6 instead of 4 unless you're deliberately trying to confuse the situation?

b) we start with 17 townies (using your flawed structure). Again using your flawed structure we lose 3 out of 17 townies therefore (3/17) * 100% is the percentage decrease in townies (again you are either skimming or deliberately misunderstanding my post)

Fact: your maths/structure is flawed on several levels.