[Official] NBC Mafia Town Win MVP=trinicardinal

[Rodion]

Leitz, it's time you do your thing! Who's Jack?

@everyone else: do not speedlynch anyone after Leitz answers, let's proceed calmly!

[trinicardinal]

well if leitz confirms medefe is jack it pretty much tells us pcm is scum, no need to wait for his claim or counterclaim.. unless you don't trust leitz. no one counter claimed sally and it's impossible not to have sally in the game. that clears leitz and medefe and puts a guilty sign on pcm (if leitz confirms medefe of course).

Assume Leitz confirms Medefe as Jack.

Name the 4 players that you think are scum.

i think epitaph, trini pcm dazza, in order of likelyness.

If PCM is mafia non-godfather, MoB is mafia for clearing him, which would clear Trini.

lol - no kidding - which would also mean that since Mob "cleared" betiko in the same manner that he "cleared" PCM add betiko to the scum list. Add to that the fact that betiko cleared chap and you have my reasons for saying that chap is more suspect to me than dazza.

Leitz, it's time you do your thing! Who's Jack?

@everyone else: do not speedlynch anyone after Leitz answers, let's proceed calmly!

Agreed - I've been trying to avoid speed lynches from the very start. Once we have our scum list we need to decide on an action plan... we still have a good time before our deadline.

[Leitz]

I'll just quote (page 97) my list of who I believe is mafia as that should be enough:

Taking everything in account I believe dazza fake-claimed so that would mean Epitaph is cleared. So my scum list:

1. MoB
2. PCM
3. betiko
4. dazza

[dazza2008]

I'll just quote (page 97) my list of who I believe is mafia as that should be enough:

Taking everything in account I believe dazza fake-claimed so that would mean Epitaph is cleared. So my scum list:

1. MoB
2. PCM
3. betiko
4. dazza

I agree with most of that list. Number 4 is wrong though buddy.

Is this all because I never believed your claim to begin with?

[trinicardinal]

I'll just quote (page 97) my list of who I believe is mafia as that should be enough:

Taking everything in account I believe dazza fake-claimed so that would mean Epitaph is cleared. So my scum list:

1. MoB
2. PCM
3. betiko
4. dazza

I'd say that was clear enough anyway from Leitz - PCM is scum therefore MoB is scum, betiko is scum. From all that has happened I think that part is fairly clear. As I said before I'm not so sure about dazza being scum

If I had to choose an order of lynching I'd probably go with

1. MoB (since this will be absolute proof of his fakeclaim - and therefore absolutely clears me as well.)
2. betiko (also absolute proof of fakeclaim - thus clearing another member of town)
3. PCM - brings us down by 1 more mafia.
4. depends on what further information we get going down the road. - this may clear up the chap/dazza debate

Going back to my lists and updating where my thoughts are

Town:
jim (mayor - cop)
trinicardinal (skeletal reindeer - busdriver)
MeDeFe (jack - mason)
Leitz (sally - one way lover)

could be town or mafia - not as sure

Epitaph1 (igor - backup doctor) based on betiko's claim I'm inclined to accept the claim
dazza (behemoth - vt)
chapcrap vt

Scum:
MoB (claimed skeletal reindeer - busdriver)
PCM (no claim)
betiko (claimed igor - inventor)

that final spot is really between dazza and chap as I see it.

[Epitaph1]

Wow, some interesting developments going on. I hate to be like this at such a crucial juncture, but I'm in the process of moving this week/weekend on top of my normal workload, and therefore do not have much time to give a great analysis. I'll be without internet for a few days coming up soon and if I'm able to check CC at all it will be primarily to take turns.

In response to Rodion's call for lists based on the assumption that MeDeFe is Jack (which Leitz appears to have confirmed), here are my top 4--although #s 3 and 4 are admittedly shaky at this point:

1) betiko
2) PCM
3) MoB over trini - this is mainly based on the MeDeFe busdrive, although Trini could very well be making this up. If he is mafia, he would have known the NK went awry just as a busdriver would have.
4) Dazza over Chap - although I agree with trini here that we'll have to evaluate this more when we get there

[trinicardinal]

Wow, some interesting developments going on. I hate to be like this at such a crucial juncture, but I'm in the process of moving this week/weekend on top of my normal workload, and therefore do not have much time to give a great analysis. I'll be without internet for a few days coming up soon and if I'm able to check CC at all it will be primarily to take turns.

In response to Rodion's call for lists based on the assumption that MeDeFe is Jack (which Leitz appears to have confirmed), here are my top 4--although #s 3 and 4 are admittedly shaky at this point:

1) betiko
2) PCM
3) MoB over trini - this is mainly based on the MeDeFe busdrive, although Trini could very well be making this up. If he is mafia, he would have known the NK went awry just as a busdriver would have.
4) Dazza over Chap - although I agree with trini here that we'll have to evaluate this more when we get there

think about it though Epitaph - we all knew that the NK went awry due to the busdrive - the scene made it clear. but MoB claims to have switched Swifte with betiko

Night 2:
Switched Swifte and Betiko:

so which makes more sense there? My switch of MeDeFe who turns out to be important town or MoB's claimed switch of someone who has effectively shown that he is scum (top of your list)?

[chapcrap]

It is a little funny that PCM won't claim.

Also funny that Leitz wouldn't just come out and say that MeDeFe was Jack.

[Leitz]

It is a little funny that PCM won't claim.

Also funny that Leitz wouldn't just come out and say that MeDeFe was Jack.

I didn't say it explicitly, but I think it was clear enough for everybody to make the conclusion. FOS chap!

[Rodion]

lol - no kidding - which would also mean that since Mob "cleared" betiko in the same manner that he "cleared" PCM add betiko to the scum list. Add to that the fact that betiko cleared chap and you have my reasons for saying that chap is more suspect to me than dazza.

In case I die, town will have to be careful with this.

If mafia "clears" people, that doesn't mean everyone they cleared is also mafia. For instance, if MoB is mafia he could have purposefully cleared 1 town and 1 mafia to murk things up.

Here are the facts that can lead to safe conclusions and the conclusions that are safe due to these facts:

Fact: Trini claimed to clear Medefe as mafia's intended N2 target
Conclusion 1 : if Trini dies and flips town busdriver, Medefe is town
Conclusion 2: if Medefe dies and flips mafia, Trini is mafia

Fact: MoB claimed to clear Betiko as mafia's intended N2 target
Conclusion 1 : if MoB dies and flips town busdriver, Betiko is town
Conclusion 2: if Betiko dies and flips mafia, MoB is mafia

Fact: MoB claimed to clear PCM as the cop's actual N1 target
Conclusion 1: if MoB dies and flips town busdriver, PCM is town or mafia godfather
Conclusion 2: if PCM dies and flips any mafia role other than godfather, MoB is mafia

Fact: Betiko claimed to clear Chapcrap as his inventor N3 target
Conclusion 1 : if Betiko dies and flips town inventor, Chapcrap is town or mafia godfather
Conclusion 2: if Chapcrap dies and flips any mafia role other than godfather, Betiko is mafia

Fact: Leitz claimed to clear Medefe as Jack
Conclusion 1: if Leitz dies and flips town one-way lover, Medefe is town
Conclusion 2: if Medefe dies and flips mafia, Leitz is mafia

All conclusions other than those are not "safe".

[Rodion]

You can also try to "chain" some conclusions, such as:

"if Chap flips mafia non-godfather, Betiko is mafia, which means MoB is also mafia" (for instance)

[Leitz]

In case I die, town will have to be careful with this.

With everything on the table I really don't see how that could happen. Why are you scared you will be killed?

[chapcrap]

It is a little funny that PCM won't claim.

Also funny that Leitz wouldn't just come out and say that MeDeFe was Jack.

I didn't say it explicitly, but I think it was clear enough for everybody to make the conclusion. FOS chap!

That's what was funny, duh!

[chapcrap]

lol - no kidding - which would also mean that since Mob "cleared" betiko in the same manner that he "cleared" PCM add betiko to the scum list. Add to that the fact that betiko cleared chap and you have my reasons for saying that chap is more suspect to me than dazza.

In case I die, town will have to be careful with this.

If mafia "clears" people, that doesn't mean everyone they cleared is also mafia. For instance, if MoB is mafia he could have purposefully cleared 1 town and 1 mafia to murk things up.

Here are the facts that can lead to safe conclusions and the conclusions that are safe due to these facts:

Fact: Trini claimed to clear Medefe as mafia's intended N2 target
Conclusion 1 : if Trini dies and flips town busdriver, Medefe is town
Conclusion 2: if Medefe dies and flips mafia, Trini is mafia

Fact: MoB claimed to clear Betiko as mafia's intended N2 target
Conclusion 1 : if MoB dies and flips town busdriver, Betiko is town
Conclusion 2: if Betiko dies and flips mafia, MoB is mafia

Fact: MoB claimed to clear PCM as the cop's actual N1 target
Conclusion 1: if MoB dies and flips town busdriver, PCM is town or mafia godfather
Conclusion 2: if PCM dies and flips any mafia role other than godfather, MoB is mafia

Fact: Betiko claimed to clear Chapcrap as his inventor N3 target
Conclusion 1 : if Betiko dies and flips town inventor, Chapcrap is town or mafia godfather
Conclusion 2: if Chapcrap dies and flips any mafia role other than godfather, Betiko is mafia

Fact: Leitz claimed to clear Medefe as Jack
Conclusion 1: if Leitz dies and flips town one-way lover, Medefe is town
Conclusion 2: if Medefe dies and flips mafia, Leitz is mafia

All conclusions other than those are not "safe".

Fact: Betiko and Epitaph1 claimed Igor
Conclusion 1 : if Betiko dies and flips Igor, Epitaph1 is mafia
Conclusion 2: if Epitaph1 dies and flips Igor, betiko is mafia

[chapcrap]

Fact: Betiko and Epitaph1 claimed Igor
Conclusion 1 : if Betiko dies and flips Igor, Epitaph1 is mafia
Conclusion 2: if Epitaph1 dies and flips Igor, betiko is mafia

Also:

Fact: trinicardinal and MoB Deadly claimed town busdriver
Conclusion 1 : if trinicardinal dies and flips town busdriver, MoB Deadly is mafia
Conclusion 2: if MoB Deadly dies and flips town busdriver, trinicardinal is mafia

[Rodion]

Yes, I didn't add the counterclaims, but they are also there.

And I'm considering PCM counterclaimed Medefe, because otherwise there is no purpose to vote a flavour-confirmed character.

This means we have:

Trini/MoB - 1 town and 1 mafia
Medefe/PCM - 1 town and 1 mafia
Epitaph/Betiko - at least 1 mafia, perhaps both

4th mafia could be anyone between Dazza, Chap, Leitz or Epitaph/Betiko

[safariguy5]

Vote Count

Mob(2)- dazza, MeDeFe
Epitaph(2)-betiko, MoB,
betiko(3)- epitaph, jim, trini
MeDeFe(1)- PCM


With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.

Day ends midnight March 1st PST. If a lynch is not reached by then, a no lynch will be declared.

[Rodion]

Unvote.

Alright, I think we should lynch PCM.

1 - Back in D1, Shield didn't understand what was wrong with BG's light blue after Jonty questioned it. It is reasonable to assume townies would at least understand Jonty's question, since their role PMs had a different blue. That makes me speculate that Shield did not know the proper blue because he did not get a town role PM. Rodion 1.0 had a post implying Jonty was probably town and Shield was suspicious because of that very reason.

2 - In friggin' MYLO, PCM voted Epitaph because "his wagon had more votes already". Really? That is so weak I can't even begin to explain.

3 - The vote on Medefe after he claimed Jack is unexcusable (unless he wanted to counterclaim Jack, but why didn't he?).

Even if you disregard the scuminess this slot inherited from Shield, PCM has been making some questionable moves.

I'll take some time now detailing what has to be done by town depending on what PCM flips.

Scenario 1: PCM flips Jack

Bad news: town needs to block mafia's NK or we lose.

Good news: assuming it is blocked, we have most of our work done. Medefe/Leitz/Trini are obviously liars. The 4th scum would be between Epitaph and Betiko.

Epitaph(5)-betiko, leitz, MoB, PCM, chap

If Epitaph was town, either Trini or Medefe would have hammered at this point and closed the game by roleblocking MoB and guaranteeing a mafia NK. This means that Epitaph can't be town, so the scum team if PCM flips Jack is Medefe, Leitz, Trini and Epitaph.

Come to think of it, if that is the case I don't think we'll be able to stop mafia's NK, unless Betiko did not disclose one of his inventor powers (he could prevent the loss by killing one of the 4 mafia).

Scenario 2: PCM flips town, but not Jack

Wow, just wow! You've ruined the game for town, PCM.

We'd need a miracle to win if we have the corret power roles. It's hard to predict what we have because we wouldn't even have a starting point (Medefe would still be innocent, meaning we can't know for sure whether Trini and Leitz are lying). If PCM flipped town miller, we'd at least know MoB lied, but that is not going to happen.

The goods news are this is the least likely scenario out there.

Scenario 3: PCM flips mafia godfather

MoB is not necessarily mafia as the innocent result was expected. This is a tricky scenario that will take longer to be analysed.

Scenario 4: PCM flips mafia, but not godfather

PCM is the 1st mafia.
MoB is the 2nd mafia.
Trini is confirmed town busdriver.
Medefe is confirmed town mason.
Epitaph/Betiko is the 3rd mafia.
4th mafia can be anyone between Epitaph/Betiko/Chap/Dazza/Leitz.

Basically.

Scenario 1 - one of Betiko/MoB will be roleblocked and the other will have to strike gold in order to give town the win
Scenario 2 - don't even know how to begin strategizing

I'll take some time to think on what should be done for scenarios 3 and 4. Scenario 4 will further be divided into 4a (PCM flips mafia roleblocker) and 4b (PCM flips mafia, but not godfather nor roleblocker).

4a is the best possible thing that can happen for town. *crosses fingers*

[betiko]

i just thought tha shield was really playing weird all game and now that pcm is playing really weird... and just thought of a last scenario: pcm is santa claws the survivor and doesn't want to claim... in that case, is it really a loss for town? not really but it would be a chance lost to kill a mafia. based on my assumptions, pcm should be one of the mafias though..
for me chap, leitz and medefe are cleared, only leaves me with 4... so pcm can only be mafia. i don't care lynching epi, trini, pcm or dazza first. no other combo that these 4 fits based on what I know.

[Rodion]

i just thought tha shield was really playing weird all game and now that pcm is playing really weird... and just thought of a last scenario: pcm is santa claws the survivor and doesn't want to claim... in that case, is it really a loss for town? not really but it would be a chance lost to kill a mafia. based on my assumptions, pcm should be one of the mafias though..
for me chap, leitz and medefe are cleared, only leaves me with 4... so pcm can only be mafia. i don't care lynching epi, trini, pcm or dazza first. no other combo that these 4 fits based on what I know.

If we lynch PCM and he is mafia, MoB is most likely mafia as well. Don't you agree?

[chapcrap]

Epitaph(5)-betiko, leitz, MoB, PCM, chap

I think looking into this vote should tell us a lot.

The fact that he wasn't hammered when the opportunity was there leads me to believe that he is scum and his scum buddies didn't want to lynch him or he's town and all the scum had already voted. So, with those 2 options in mind...

First of all, I know that I'm town. So, if it were to be the second of my options, that means all 4 of those players would have to be scum for the scum not to hammer on that. I find that to be VERY unlikely because Leitz and MeDeFe are now linked. So, the 4 of them can not all be scum because that would mean that MeDeFe and Leitz aren't actually linked.

So, if we think more about the first option, Epitaph has to be scum. Various others could be with him, but that vote, along with the linkage of Leitz and MeDeFe means that Epitaph almost assuredly is.

Rodion, if you believe that I am town, am I looking at that right?

[Rodion]

Epitaph(5)-betiko, leitz, MoB, PCM, chap

I think looking into this vote should tell us a lot.

The fact that he wasn't hammered when the opportunity was there leads me to believe that he is scum and his scum buddies didn't want to lynch him or he's town and all the scum had already voted. So, with those 2 options in mind...

I agree.

First of all, I know that I'm town. So, if it were to be the second of my options, that means all 4 of those players would have to be scum for the scum not to hammer on that. I find that to be VERY unlikely because Leitz and MeDeFe are now linked. So, the 4 of them can not all be scum because that would mean that MeDeFe and Leitz aren't actually linked.

The Medefe/Leitz link only proves that Leitz is a liar if Medefe ends up not being Jack. That does not clear Leitz.

So, if we think more about the first option, Epitaph has to be scum. Various others could be with him, but that vote, along with the linkage of Leitz and MeDeFe means that Epitaph almost assuredly is.

Rodion, if you believe that I am town, am I looking at that right?

No, because even if I were to believe that you are town, Leitz can still be mafia. It is possible that Epitaph had 4 scum in his wagon when he was L-1ed.

[betiko]

i just thought tha shield was really playing weird all game and now that pcm is playing really weird... and just thought of a last scenario: pcm is santa claws the survivor and doesn't want to claim... in that case, is it really a loss for town? not really but it would be a chance lost to kill a mafia. based on my assumptions, pcm should be one of the mafias though..
for me chap, leitz and medefe are cleared, only leaves me with 4... so pcm can only be mafia. i don't care lynching epi, trini, pcm or dazza first. no other combo that these 4 fits based on what I know.

If we lynch PCM and he is mafia, MoB is most likely mafia as well. Don't you agree?

possibly; my problem is why would trini say that i got role blocked last night. that makes me see him as scummy, unless he missinterpretated something in the night actions, and maybe they don't have just a role blocker...

fastposted and going to bed, 3am here

[Rodion]

i just thought tha shield was really playing weird all game and now that pcm is playing really weird... and just thought of a last scenario: pcm is santa claws the survivor and doesn't want to claim... in that case, is it really a loss for town? not really but it would be a chance lost to kill a mafia. based on my assumptions, pcm should be one of the mafias though..
for me chap, leitz and medefe are cleared, only leaves me with 4... so pcm can only be mafia. i don't care lynching epi, trini, pcm or dazza first. no other combo that these 4 fits based on what I know.

If we lynch PCM and he is mafia, MoB is most likely mafia as well. Don't you agree?

possibly; my problem is why would trini say that i got role blocked last night. that makes me see him as scummy, unless he missinterpretated something in the night actions, and maybe they don't have just a role blocker...

fastposted and going to bed, 3am here

I had overlooked that, thank you!!!

According to Trini, you should have been roleblocked.

Since you claim you were not, if PCM is mafia non-godfather, MoB is mafia, which makes Trini town and forces us to conclude you are also mafia.

This means we'd have:
PCM
MoB
Betiko
Epitaph/Chap/Leitz/Dazza (and Dazza is probably cleared because he did not hammer Epitaph when he was given the chance)

[Rodion]

What I said on my last post starts from the assumption that mafia tried to block Jim, so it's not 100% guaranteed, but a reasonable guess nonetheless.

PCM, do you care to make a proper claim/defense?