Matrix Mafia Endgame, Town and Survivors win!

[betiko]

I heard MoB was going to make a big post, looking forward to it, considering his 'mispost' in which he claimed Everywhere to be scum.

I have to be more patient in structuring my posts.

Ok so i guess you have the same 2 guys as me on your suspect list.. And jak, sorry i get confused between watcher and tracker sometimes..

[thechuck51]

Early on somebody ahd a theory that natural born zion would be VTs and anybody that can enter the matrix would be some type of power role. Here is a list of those who have died...

Dead
12. Eldario - Commander Locke, Vanilla Townie lynched Day 1
1. freezie - Morpheus, Town Watcher killed Night 1
9. skillfusniper33 - Link, Vanilla Townie lynched Day 2
20. cowboyz - Captain Mifune, Town Vigilante killed Night 2
19. Roussallier replaced by Some7hingClever - Agent Brown, Mafia Ninja lynched Day 3
16. Nebuchadnezer - Tank, Vanilla Townie killed Night 3

locke, link, and tank are all natural born zion and were VTs
morpheus, mifune, and agent brown were able to enter the matrix and were PR's

so far the theory has been accurate

vodean claimed mouse (who can enter the matrix) as a VT. This does not fit the theory. A theory which has not been wrong yet. clever claimed the kid (who was a red pill and was saved from the matrix) as VT and turned up scum which adds weight to the theory. Barring any info from jak or another investigative role I think we should test vodean's claim. A claim that was made under no pressure and a claim that vodean admits was made to keep pressure off of her.

So until new information comes forth vote vodean

[Iron Butterfly]

Apparently Jak wants to wait for something, good luck with that.

UNVOTE

Awwww! I came too late! Anyway, nice case S7C. I'll look more into it tomorrow in D4.

-SG7 ( )

FoS.

I understand and saw that there was a vote count. I would think the logistics would show his name but no vote/hammer. THAT is my point. Was that the proper way it is done or are people assuming he voted and did not hammer?

Still interested in this theory, what exactly were you trying to say in this post?

I heard MoB was going to make a big post, looking forward to it, considering

If your asking me about my post the short answer is that it was a huge brain fart. I completely overlooked Everywhere activate his nonhammer, which I looked so confused.

Anyways we most definately have a recruiter. In the movie didnt Smith become a virus and go rouge? He was able to replicate. If people are suggesting that because there was no SK kill but a recruitment that it implies that the sk can kill and recruit...I beleive they are wrong.

A sk kills a recruiter recruits. Why would you do both?

[edocsil]

A sk kills a recruiter recruits. Why would you do both?

Flavor. I bet Smith can only recruit redpills (and perhaps not them) and programs. Everywhere is the only confirmed program out there. Small FoS.

However, with Trinity's track I will not suggest any moves until we see what she brings into the light.

[jak111]

Like I said, I'm giving the person a chance to come out into the open. If he/she does not, it will only raise my suspicion. Right now I've given who he/she targeted, so he/she knows who they are. It's a random target.. so there better be some answering as to why choose Ghostly last night..

[Iron Butterfly]

Early on somebody ahd a theory that natural born zion would be VTs and anybody that can enter the matrix would be some type of power role. Here is a list of those who have died...

Dead
12. Eldario - Commander Locke, Vanilla Townie lynched Day 1
1. freezie - Morpheus, Town Watcher killed Night 1
9. skillfusniper33 - Link, Vanilla Townie lynched Day 2
20. cowboyz - Captain Mifune, Town Vigilante killed Night 2
19. Roussallier replaced by Some7hingClever - Agent Brown, Mafia Ninja lynched Day 3
16. Nebuchadnezer - Tank, Vanilla Townie killed Night 3

locke, link, and tank are all natural born zion and were VTs
morpheus, mifune, and agent brown were able to enter the matrix and were PR's

so far the theory has been accurate

vodean claimed mouse (who can enter the matrix) as a VT. This does not fit the theory. A theory which has not been wrong yet. clever claimed the kid (who was a red pill and was saved from the matrix) as VT and turned up scum which adds weight to the theory. Barring any info from jak or another investigative role I think we should test vodean's claim. A claim that was made under no pressure and a claim that vodean admits was made to keep pressure off of her.

So until new information comes forth vote vodean

So far the "THEORY" has been accurate but that does not mean it is true.
People argued that Tank would not/ should not be a VT because it did not fit the flavor.
Having three VTs dead, who happened to be from Zion does not prove that all charachters from Zion most be VTs or that all who can go or live in the matrix are PRs.

I have my own WIFOM theory. We have a recruiter. I have played two games with recruiters. In one the recruited had to be a VT to join the club.

[edocsil]

Like I said, I'm giving the person a chance to come out into the open. If he/she does not, it will only raise my suspicion. Right now I've given who he/she targeted, so he/she knows who they are. It's a random target.. so there better be some answering as to why choose Ghostly last night..

Ah wait up here. Ghostly is alive, so unless you have flavor of some sort you are likely just going to out a power role... Unless they are a claimed VT or happen to be vodean, then they are really toast.

Also IB, Plausible for balance reasons, although it does contradict flavor.

[jak111]

Like I said, I'm giving the person a chance to come out into the open. If he/she does not, it will only raise my suspicion. Right now I've given who he/she targeted, so he/she knows who they are. It's a random target.. so there better be some answering as to why choose Ghostly last night..

Ah wait up here. Ghostly is alive, so unless you have flavor of some sort you are likely just going to out a power role... Unless they are a claimed VT or happen to be vodean, then they are really toast.

Also IB, Plausible for balance reasons, although it does contradict flavor.

Remember, right now from flavor speculation, there's a high chance it was a recruiter.. The target was random, the person has been suspicious.. Believe me, unless they had a VERY good reason for doing whatever they did to Ghostly who is more off than on atm they may be the recruiter. (Which we can't deny, the speculation around the scene very much seems like it).

If it wasn't for that, then I'd be keeping my mouth shut saying the information was no use to town at the time, however under the circumstances a no kill does not mean they are safe.

[edocsil]

Like I said, I'm giving the person a chance to come out into the open. If he/she does not, it will only raise my suspicion. Right now I've given who he/she targeted, so he/she knows who they are. It's a random target.. so there better be some answering as to why choose Ghostly last night..

Ah wait up here. Ghostly is alive, so unless you have flavor of some sort you are likely just going to out a power role... Unless they are a claimed VT or happen to be vodean, then they are really toast.

Also IB, Plausible for balance reasons, although it does contradict flavor.

Remember, right now from flavor speculation, there's a high chance it was a recruiter.. The target was random, the person has been suspicious.. Believe me, unless they had a VERY good reason for doing whatever they did to Ghostly who is more off than on atm they may be the recruiter. (Which we can't deny, the speculation around the scene very much seems like it).

If it wasn't for that, then I'd be keeping my mouth shut saying the information was no use to town at the time, however under the circumstances a no kill does not mean they are safe.

Sorry, how the f*ck do we get most likely action is a recruit? I completely agree with your concept that there was A recruit but how could you know that your action targeted the recruit target?. There are likely a few non killing town PRs out there that I expect to see at some point, namely busdriver, doc and roleblocker. From my point of view you are making a terrible assumption that you saw the recruit, and without some flavor from the track I don't possibly see how you could make that assumption in the first place. And for everyone else, no I am not the one who targeted ghostly.

[thechuck51]

So far the "THEORY" has been accurate but that does not mean it is true.
People argued that Tank would not/ should not be a VT because it did not fit the flavor.
Having three VTs dead, who happened to be from Zion does not prove that all charachters from Zion most be VTs or that all who can go or live in the matrix are PRs.

Until evidence to the contrary arises I will continue to believe that the theory is accurate

I have my own WIFOM theory. We have a recruiter. I have played two games with recruiters. In one the recruited had to be a VT to join the club.

I think that either smith has a choice each night to kill or recruit or the result depends on who he targets. If he targets a PR he kills them if he targets a VT he recruits them?

[jak111]

Like I said, I'm giving the person a chance to come out into the open. If he/she does not, it will only raise my suspicion. Right now I've given who he/she targeted, so he/she knows who they are. It's a random target.. so there better be some answering as to why choose Ghostly last night..

Ah wait up here. Ghostly is alive, so unless you have flavor of some sort you are likely just going to out a power role... Unless they are a claimed VT or happen to be vodean, then they are really toast.

Also IB, Plausible for balance reasons, although it does contradict flavor.

Remember, right now from flavor speculation, there's a high chance it was a recruiter.. The target was random, the person has been suspicious.. Believe me, unless they had a VERY good reason for doing whatever they did to Ghostly who is more off than on atm they may be the recruiter. (Which we can't deny, the speculation around the scene very much seems like it).

If it wasn't for that, then I'd be keeping my mouth shut saying the information was no use to town at the time, however under the circumstances a no kill does not mean they are safe.

Sorry, how the f*ck do we get most likely action is a recruit? I completely agree with your concept that there was A recruit but how could you know that your action targeted the recruit target?. There are likely a few non killing town PRs out there that I expect to see at some point, namely busdriver, doc and roleblocker. From my point of view you are making a terrible assumption that you saw the recruit, and without some flavor from the track I don't possibly see how you could make that assumption in the first place. And for everyone else, no I am not the one who targeted ghostly.

There are non killing PR's Edoc, but what you're overlooking is WHO was targeted, plus you don't know yet who I targeted. He'll either come forth by tomorrow night or be revealed, but he has been suspicious by a few different people. His choice of target is the questionable part. If it was a Busdriver, I assume I'd see two targets instead of one, so that is crossed off the list. A protection role? Not likely. Ghostly hasn't contributed much to the game, he's far under the radar with his inactivity, so who would bother targeting him?

Now, let's go into a bit of WIFOM here. If you were a recruiter, who would you pick to recruit? I wouldn't pick a person who was high on the radar, that's for sure.

Really, the only reasonable town roles I can think anyone would touch Ghostly on is either a cop or roleblocker. Which both can be counter claimed with ease. Also, whatever his info is if he is a cop, helps us out. If he's a cop there's 3 nights worth of inspections he can give us. If he's a roleblocker then maybe someone else has a lead that he can help us with tonight.

Either way, with what happened last night, and the fact we're running out of investigator roles (watcher is gone, so we really only have me and maybe a cop?) Which now brings us to having to either CLEAR townies, or bring forth targets. D4 is a long time to survive and we should be able to have some information by now.

Between Doom and I (which I believe we are cleared) we can CLEAR 100% a single person so far. With my track last night I presume we can either clear or bring forth a target today (Perhaps 2, depending on what happened).

With that all said and done we have 18 players left. Between Doom and I we know only 15 possible people remain. if the person I tracked can give us information that clears people, we can clear down to a possible of 11 people left (7 being cleared).

With this 11 left, and going into possible wifom of the numbers and how this game seems to be set up, we can assume 5-6 out of the original 24 are mafia. 2 people are now possible 3rd party.

With 1 mafia out of the way it'd be down to 4-5 mafia left + 2 3rd party.

Which gives us 6-7 out of 11 (if the person I tracked can clear 3 people) left.

Now I have a question for you Edoc. With the game this size, and VT's falling left right and center, do you think it's time we start putting the pieces together and start clearing off people as to make our investigative and protection roles better targets? We're pushing luck so far.. We've lost 2 PR's and 3 VT's. With probably only 2-3 more VT's out there.. it's only a matter of time before our power roles are hit EVERY night.

Fasposted, he may only have a recruiter role every so and so nights. It'd be too easy if he could choose EVERY night because then he'd just recruit and recruit, gaining numbers and power in day time quickly.

[everywhere116]

Early on somebody ahd a theory that natural born zion would be VTs and anybody that can enter the matrix would be some type of power role. Here is a list of those who have died...

Dead
12. Eldario - Commander Locke, Vanilla Townie lynched Day 1
1. freezie - Morpheus, Town Watcher killed Night 1
9. skillfusniper33 - Link, Vanilla Townie lynched Day 2
20. cowboyz - Captain Mifune, Town Vigilante killed Night 2
19. Roussallier replaced by Some7hingClever - Agent Brown, Mafia Ninja lynched Day 3
16. Nebuchadnezer - Tank, Vanilla Townie killed Night 3

locke, link, and tank are all natural born zion and were VTs
morpheus, mifune, and agent brown were able to enter the matrix and were PR's

so far the theory has been accurate

vodean claimed mouse (who can enter the matrix) as a VT. This does not fit the theory. A theory which has not been wrong yet. clever claimed the kid (who was a red pill and was saved from the matrix) as VT and turned up scum which adds weight to the theory. Barring any info from jak or another investigative role I think we should test vodean's claim. A claim that was made under no pressure and a claim that vodean admits was made to keep pressure off of her.

So until new information comes forth vote vodean

This makes sense. I would vote for him, too, but I want to see what comes of jak's watch.

[edocsil]

Now, let's go into a bit of WIFOM here. If you were a recruiter, who would you pick to recruit? I wouldn't pick a person who was high on the radar, that's for sure.

If there are no limitations to my power, town power roles. You. Doom. Unclaimed people due to the number of claimed VTs

With this 11 left, and going into possible wifom of the numbers and how this game seems to be set up, we can assume 5-6 out of the original 24 are mafia. 2 people are now possible 3rd party.

With 1 mafia out of the way it'd be down to 4-5 mafia left + 2 3rd party.

Which gives us 6-7 out of 11 (if the person I tracked can clear 3 people) left.

Now I have a question for you Edoc. With the game this size, and VT's falling left right and center, do you think it's time we start putting the pieces together and start clearing off people as to make our investigative and protection roles better targets? We're pushing luck so far.. We've lost 2 PR's and 3 VT's. With probably only 2-3 more VT's out there.. it's only a matter of time before our power roles are hit EVERY night.

If you could name 3 TOWNIES, I could likely name 3 people, 2 of which would be scum. I am not convinced you can really clear people however. You are a simple tracker, and you are giving you power too much credit. Many scum do not target every night, so your power means very little unless you are very lucky. If you have concrete info spill it now before you are killed. It is totally unimportant if it blows Neo's cover for your "100%" clear, he is already a target. In fact if you do not spill your info before the day ends I am going to assume that you or Neo have been recruited.

Also there were not 5-6 mafia when this game started. 3-4 mafia and smith. I will bet it all on that.

[thehippo8]

Well I was dead set against attacking avowed vt's and look where that ended up! So, for all the very valid reasons that we've had, particulalry in day three, vote vodean

[vodean]

HAHAHAHAHAA!!!!!!!

Yes, chuck, edoc, hippo, and everywhere!!!
Lets all vote vodean, who led us to a mafia lynch yesterday, and then try to discredit Jak and Doom who are confirmed town!!!! THAT MAKES SOOO MUCH SENSE!!!!

i think its worth looking into. For example, who were not on the Clever wagon? chuck, edoc, hippo, and everywhere!
way to point yourselves out, guys.

im going to vote hippo first, since he actually defended clever, but chuck, wouldnt you say that leading the lynch of a mafia member would make me pretty town?

[vodean]

Well I was dead set against attacking avowed vt's and look where that ended up! So, for all the very valid reasons that we've had, particulalry in day three, vote vodean

lol, since i joined the game day 3, when else would you have valid reasons? surely not day 4, where i have only pointed out the four people who are fingering myself, jak, and doom.

[DoomYoshi]

Hmm. It is interesting that edoc brought up a point that I was contemplating. However, anyone who can piece together info will now know this, so I must disclose all.

There is one role that jak didn't include in his analysis. Since he didn't include, one must conclude that he already knows who has that role (assuming he didn't target me). This role is hider. I have hid behind hippo every night. I can assume the mafia is aware of that, as there is no other reason (except busdriver) to target a VT. Luckily, hippo is town, since if I hide behind a mafia, I die.

Luckily they targetted neb and not hippo, so I am still alive.

Is ghostly recruited? Difficult to say without input for all players.

Right now strong fos on edoc. You know jak can often jump to irrational conclusions. Yet you use this evidence to jump to your own irrational conclusion. That jak or Neo has been recruited. How would jak even know if I was recruited?

Second major fos on vodean. A WIFOM defense is not a good one, and in this case, the flavor spec is pretty good. I would like to ask Aage, as our resident flavor master, if that case makes sense (is mouse from Zion)?

To summarize: hippo is 100% clear, as of night 3.

[edocsil]

Hmm. It is interesting that edoc brought up a point that I was contemplating. However, anyone who can piece together info will now know this, so I must disclose all.

There is one role that jak didn't include in his analysis. Since he didn't include, one must conclude that he already knows who has that role (assuming he didn't target me). This role is hider. I have hid behind hippo every night. I can assume the mafia is aware of that, as there is no other reason (except busdriver) to target a VT. Luckily, hippo is town, since if I hide behind a mafia, I die.

Luckily they targetted neb and not hippo, so I am still alive.

Is ghostly recruited? Difficult to say without input for all players.

Right now strong fos on edoc. You know jak can often jump to irrational conclusions. Yet you use this evidence to jump to your own irrational conclusion. That jak or Neo has been recruited. How would jak even know if I was recruited?

Second major fos on vodean. A WIFOM defense is not a good one, and in this case, the flavor spec is pretty good. I would like to ask Aage, as our resident flavor master, if that case makes sense (is mouse from Zion)?

To summarize: hippo is 100% clear, as of night 3.

I thought as much. Anyhow, everyone seems to think that I want to lynch you guys or something. I was understandably confused as to why claimed power roles were withholding night info. Yes it paints a target on the confirm, but the scum already have most our power roles by a process of elimination anyhow. Also, you are lovers if I understand this properly. A cult recruitment may not change that, or remove your ability to speak with each other.

However, Doom you must admit if there was a cult out there and it was able to recruit you, you would be a prime target yes? That is where my wariness comes from, especially if clears are withheld.

Mouse is a redpill, he was bread by the machines. He is from Zion, but he was not born there.

[jak111]

Now, let's go into a bit of WIFOM here. If you were a recruiter, who would you pick to recruit? I wouldn't pick a person who was high on the radar, that's for sure.

If there are no limitations to my power, town power roles. You. Doom. Unclaimed people due to the number of claimed VTs

With this 11 left, and going into possible wifom of the numbers and how this game seems to be set up, we can assume 5-6 out of the original 24 are mafia. 2 people are now possible 3rd party.

With 1 mafia out of the way it'd be down to 4-5 mafia left + 2 3rd party.

Which gives us 6-7 out of 11 (if the person I tracked can clear 3 people) left.

Now I have a question for you Edoc. With the game this size, and VT's falling left right and center, do you think it's time we start putting the pieces together and start clearing off people as to make our investigative and protection roles better targets? We're pushing luck so far.. We've lost 2 PR's and 3 VT's. With probably only 2-3 more VT's out there.. it's only a matter of time before our power roles are hit EVERY night.

If you could name 3 TOWNIES, I could likely name 3 people, 2 of which would be scum. I am not convinced you can really clear people however. You are a simple tracker, and you are giving you power too much credit. Many scum do not target every night, so your power means very little unless you are very lucky. If you have concrete info spill it now before you are killed. It is totally unimportant if it blows Neo's cover for your "100%" clear, he is already a target. In fact if you do not spill your info before the day ends I am going to assume that you or Neo have been recruited.

Also there were not 5-6 mafia when this game started. 3-4 mafia and smith. I will bet it all on that.

The main body of this Doom just wasted away with his claim (Sorry bud, it was sooner or later mafia knew what was up) which is a reason I can 'protect' Doom. If I don't die, he doesn't die. Though when he said he hid behind Hippo the other night, I knew Hippo has been 100% confirmed, otherwise Doom would be dead right now.

But take a look at your first line in this quote. "Unclaimed people due to the number of claimed VTs". Ghost is unclaimed. He's under the radar. He's barely even mentioned in our talks. So why pick him for a night action? My guess, is we may have found the recruiter. Not 100% confirmed but it's logical. Especially when you see who did it.

He has until tonight to come forward with any information he may of gotten and WHY Ghost.

I was sorta hoping he'd pop in and try to fake claim hider before Doom and I had to spill the beans, but you know Edoc, a pain in the ass when you got a plan

Though speaking about Edoc again. Does threatening two claimed power name and roles going to make you feel better for the day? "In fact if you do not spill your info before the day ends I am going to assume that you or Neo have been recruited." Yea, that's going to get you real far. With Doom being the Hider. I'm not exactly sure how he'd be 'recruited' The scene makes no mention to two people being recruited so I doubt it was Hippo neither.

Doom knows who I tracked and I hope he and everyone else here respects giving the tracked a chance to put a word in for themselves before being revealed.

As far as your numbers go, I think we can settle on 4-5 mafia in total. (It's a Saf game.. There's VT's and usually 20-25% mafia:Town roles, although it is questionable, I do not have experience with Saf's balances with a recruiter in game).

Going back to the recruiter (This is why my posts are long, I usually run off of one idea to the next), I think we can assume he can only recruit every x nights or only be able to recruit certain kinds of people, whether it be their role or where in the movie they're from. Otherwise I doubt he'd be killing anyone (why would someone kill if they have the ability to recruit every night, right?)

Any other ideas for the day?

[pmchugh]

I'm actually quite suspicious of the claimed players, because that is who I would recruit not ghostly. Either that or I would go for a vet like edoc (or myself from someone elses POV).

I think that information is important though at this stage in the game so I can agree with jak about ghostly. Although I have to say that I don't think doom should have claimed the hide action (it makes you vulnerable and gives the mafia more to work with) and it doesn't clear hippo given the high chance of him being recruited.

[DoomYoshi]

I'm actually quite suspicious of the claimed players, because that is who I would recruit not ghostly. Either that or I would go for a vet like edoc (or myself from someone elses POV).

I think that information is important though at this stage in the game so I can agree with jak about ghostly. Although I have to say that I don't think doom should have claimed the hide action (it makes you vulnerable and gives the mafia more to work with) and it doesn't clear hippo given the high chance of him being recruited.

I would say nil chance of recruitment. Why would anyone recruit a mostly inexperienced VT?

[vodean]

he would be recruited because no one would suspect him. He is on nobody's radar. It seems like there are some serious disagreements between doom and jak. I dont think doom could have been recruited because jak would know if his masonic pair was disrupted. (i.e. they would no longer be able to talk).

Hippo, since you are clear, please explain your actions regarding clever (why you defended him so adamantly).

[vodean]

also, my defense may be WIFOM, but its still valid. No mafia would want a mafia to be lynched, and would therefore not pressure it.

[aage]

Okay...
In regard to the claims of Neo and Trinity, and I suspect Neo will especially appreciate this...

Bullshit.

Trinity a tracker, okay. Trinity and Neo a couple, okay. Neo bulletproof, okay. Neo a hider? What the actual f*ck.

Vote Doom

I suspect you've been lying to us. I suspect you switched around your claims, Neo is the tracker and Trin is the hider. Lovely little strategy, but you're forgetting that whatever you two don't disclose, town can't use. Stop playing SK and start playing town, for heaven's sake. I completely understand why Edoc'sil would now suspect a recruit between the two of you.

[aage]

Now that I've vented that, I suppose I could respond to the theories.


I had two theories in my mind when I first read the recruit. First, Smith kills PR's and recruits VT's. Second, Smith only gets a recruit every other two nights. It seems both theories have been coined already, good.

Mouse is a character from Matrix 1. He is part of the crew of the Nebuchadnezzar, Morpheus' ship, but he dies in the first film. Edoc'sil pretty much got everything right about him, he was freed from the matrix so not originally from Zion. Otherwise he couldn't possibly enter the matrix and get shot while Morpheus gets captured. If all Nebuchadnezzar crew had a power role, him being a VT wouldn't make sense, but he is not very significant in the film. Remember the part where they're in a building and Neo gets that deja-vu? Brick walls turn up where there should be mirrors? That scene.

Basically, he does in no way support the VT theory that thechuck coined and can therefore be considered an odd-one-out.

Jak, I really don't understand why you are waiting for this suspect to come out and claim. If he had claimed hider, Doom could have counterclaimed and nothing would have been different except we would all already know who you were talking about. The vagueness is extremely annoying and disturbing, and I really would appreciate if you would stop playing your own game.