Here's the post I promised. As I said before, it's a post of doubts, not certainties.
1 - Don't hold your breath while waiting for Miss Peach's claim. Daze has already incriminated her enough for the player to know he can't claim. Besides, now that Commander's and Mass' characters are known (David Bill, Debra Hill - wtf?), fake claiming becomes extremely easy, much like Edocsil predicted (props to you, sir).
edocsil wrote:DoomYoshi wrote:There are less than 30 characters in the clue universe. How is making fakeclaims easy at all?
If I understand properly there are more players then roles. Some must be made up. Makes fakes easy if they can be pulled out of ass.
Now, I don't know if there are more characters or players (Yoshi disputed this), but the fact is that claims can indeed be made up with ease.
"But, Rodion, if we can claim all 20 cards we'll eventually know which characters are in the game and which were made up."There's just one problem. We will NEVER get to know all 20 cards. Pyrhhus' card is lost forever. Commander's too. Besides, the mafia(s) must have a decent ammount of cards and they can refuse to confirm "weird" names just to make the person look like a liar (
"but I really AM Winston Churchill, town, how come nobody is going to confirm by showing my card?!")
The light in the end of the tunnel here is that we can get names through regular investigations, so hopefully we can still tell a fake claim from a correct one, but that's not granted.
For all that I said until now,
FOS Tonka for the speed hammer.
2 - 2 NKs last night (and 2 NK attempts the night before) means we're dealing with:
a) 2 mafias
b) mafia + dumb vigilante
c) mafia + SK
N1 flavour says Miss Scarlet did not kill Mr. Black. The flavour sort of acquits her.
"Who framed Miss Scarlet" is a question in the flavour.
So, do we accept that she was framed?
Let's see: I don't believe that the mod/flavour would downright lie to us. If they said Miss Scarlet didn't kill Mr. Black, I'll believe it.
Does that mean that she was not mafia, though?
There can possibly be 2 mafias. If she didn't kill Mr. Black, it's possible that she's part of the second mafia (the one that attempted to kill Wadsworth). That means she would still be guilty. She could, in fact, be part of the very mafia that killed Mr. Black, since only 1 member actually makes the kill and it's possible that she wasn't the one chosen by the godfather (if there is one). That means she would still be guilty.
Accepting the possibility that Miss Scarlet was framed means we accept the possibility that the cellar cards are not entirely accurate (and that's a shitfest) OR the possibility that Victor (The Chief) lied about her cellar card and got pretty lucky that she indeed flipped mafia (or both: perhaps he took her innocent card on N0 and then decided to frame her, knowing that nobody else would be able to assert her innocence as he was the one holding her card).
That considered, I'd LIKE to think that she wasn't framed (or that whoever framed her happened to frame someone that was already guilty) and indeed is mafia, but I can't be completely sure about that. There can be, however, a framer out there (there were 3 fingerprints on the candlestick according to Daze). I'd LIKE to think, however, that he's not powerful enough to alter the result of the cards.
Yesterday, I thought that those cellar cards would lead us to an easy victory through massclaiming; today, not so sure anymore.

If anyone has information that can shed some light on any of the doubts I've mentioned, I'd be extremely glad to hear them.