PYP~Mafia [05/21] end game

[mtamburini]

DJ seems more towny then me? Can you quote his last post?
I CAN HELP YOU WITH THAT

Streaker: It was 1,2. I figured id try it but definately didnt think it would land me where it did

As for all the fishing I can pick where I believe all the top roles are. I didnt get the hot role that everyone is on since it isnt any fun. In that aspect though, with SW coming out and saying lynch whoever claims NRA will drastically stop anyone from claiming it.

Charm since the mafia got to pick their own roles to ban I would have to assume they could talk and plotted it all out and its obvious the roles they banned. Beyond that point its all speculation. At least there are enough roles out there which should prove to be benefical

fp legion

Only posted once this game since getting the #1 spot.

Now you tell me how this is more towny then what Ive down this past 2 hours and I wont lynch you

[mtamburini]

So Hotshot claims that either mtam or djfireside has to be NRA member. They both deny being the NRA member. One of the 3 is lying.

I'm not saying that lying in this situation is reason in-itself to lynch, but we need to be suspicious of the motives of all 3.

I'm most likely to believe Hotshot; coming forward with a bold statement like he did would only invite attention if he were lying.

FP hotshot, mtam with similar comments.

Hotshot or DJ is lying. They can still be both town. I didnt want to lynch either or until hotshots last post about DJ being more towny when he has only contributed one post towards the game that has no relevance at all to anything game related besides him claiming not to have NRA

[jonty125]

So between Hotshot, mtam & DJ one of them is lying.

Either DJ or mtam is NRA and is lying
OR
Hotshot didn't try and draft NRA.

I believe it is likely that Hotshot is telling the truth, as if the scenario was that neither DJ nor mtam picked NRA, it would be likely someone else further down the draft would of picked it, and therefore they would call Hotshot out for saying he attempted to draft NRA (because the person lower down the draft would of got NRA). We also have a claim from Hotshot so I don't see the value in pressuring him. I asked random.org to pick a liar to pressure between mtam & DJ. It picked mtam, so my vote goes on mtam.

FASTPOSTED x6

[jonty125]

To clarify I've used random.org, because I don't have any strong reads on mtam or DJ.

[mtamburini]

So between Hotshot, mtam & DJ one of them is lying.

Either DJ or mtam is NRA and is lying
OR
Hotshot didn't try and draft NRA.

I believe it is likely that Hotshot is telling the truth, as if the scenario was that neither DJ nor mtam picked NRA, it would be likely someone else further down the draft would of picked it, and therefore they would call Hotshot out for saying he attempted to draft NRA (because the person lower down the draft would of got NRA). We also have a claim from Hotshot so I don't see the value in pressuring him. I asked random.org to pick a liar to pressure between mtam & DJ. It picked mtam, so my vote goes on mtam.

FASTPOSTED x6

WTF you have no reads on either of us? Look at my posts look at his POST. You see what I did there?

[mtamburini]

Also you say hot shot could be lying and drafted someone else, if he is mafia and gets me and DJ lynched he just sacced himself for two towns that had top 2 pick. I suggest you go look for your brain and use it logically.

[mtamburini]

My question to everyone, is the life of a VT worth finding out if DJ is the NRA? Or is it better that a vanilla mafia tries to out the NRA so they know not to kill it in the night?

[Djfireside]

Everything overall is meta over certain roles at this point since we are playing against the draft order. As for getting more of a town vibe on me versus Mtam I dunno on that and it may your content that is leading to that and running in circles at times. I have nothing against what you have said, and you choice of an against the grain role as you state it is your choice.

I concur with your statement mtam and find that your logic is concise that I have read thus far. I am reading back through everything again as I am finding myself questioning a few things but wanted to at least finish this train of thought.

FP mtam

[Killuminati19]

Hotshot's unsolicited claim is not sustainable over the long haul if he were lying. Between mtam and dj I am now inclined to believe mtam. Very possible dj doesn't want to out himself as townie NRA though. By the way, where is the vote thread?

We need to decide quickly if we want to keep pursuing the dj vs mtam vs hotspot thing or if we want to go in another direction. I'm leaning towards going another direction and wouldn't mind pressuring someone further down the draft list.

[Metsfanmax]

I think it's hard to have a town read on either mtam or Dj at this point. It is possible that Hotshot would have made his claim as mafia -- but not likely, it draws too much attention to him. At most we would lynch mtam and Dj and then lynch Hotshot. But if he's a vanilla mafia (say) then it's possible one could conclude that's a good trade, under very certain circumstances -- it means that the first two days are spent lynching people he knows are townies, and then when he dies on D3 it could have been a worthwhile trade. Still, I don't think I would have made that trade unless I was really really certain it made sense in the long run, so I'm guessing he didn't either.

OK, so then the question comes down to whether we believe that mtam/Dj are lying because they are town, or because they are mafia. The problem is, now that we can assume one of the two is NRA member, the mafia knows that too (assuming they're both town). Which means that even if the original intention was to stay hidden so that the mafia accidentally stumbles over you and dies, that is gone now. So I actually don't see the point in hiding anymore -- whichever one of them is NRA member should just claim so that we can move on. I don't think that this lie would be a lynch-worthy offense -- see my earlier comments about how the NRA member may want to stay hidden if he's town, so if they do confess, it won't tell us much unless we have a read for another reason.

[dd515087]

Hotshot being vanilla mafia makes sense to me. Dj and mtam both haven't said they were vanilla and with the top 2 picks they probably each ended up with power roles. If mafia is trading a vanilla player for lynches on the top 2 picks who are townies AND they also have 2 night kills between now and D3, we would be down 4 townies to 1 mafia who isn't even a power role. That is of course assuming we do lynch Dj and/or mtam
On the other hand if we do want to lynch one of them mtam seems more scummy to me, he comes in and adds a lot within a couple hours and then defends himself based on the fact that he's posted more than Dj

[dd515087]

@streaker I thought metsfan made a good point in that we didn't have leads earlier and I feel like charm didn't deserve to be attacked so strongly

[Streaker]

OK, so then the question comes down to whether we believe that mtam/Dj are lying because they are town, or because they are mafia. The problem is, now that we can assume one of the two is NRA member, the mafia knows that too (assuming they're both town). Which means that even if the original intention was to stay hidden so that the mafia accidentally stumbles over you and dies, that is gone now. So I actually don't see the point in hiding anymore -- whichever one of them is NRA member should just claim so that we can move on. I don't think that this lie would be a lynch-worthy offense -- see my earlier comments about how the NRA member may want to stay hidden if he's town, so if they do confess, it won't tell us much unless we have a read for another reason.

See, the problem that arises now is that we HAVE to find out. NRA is too dangerous for town, be it in mafia or town hands. I would be inclined to go after mtam or DJ, and would choose DJ myself between those two.
At the very least it gives us a lead where we can all find some comfort in for D1.

FP'd by dd515087

And you, my friend, come in with that post... Why do you think Hotshot is mafia? Ofcourse DJ and mtam don't claim vanilla, that would be absurd. With these amount of power roles, losing 2 to 1 is not even a bad trade off.
I am bothered by your statement that mtam 'comes in and adds a lot within a couple hours'.

What have you contributed, except for a few (two?) vague posts where you are all over the place.
FoS dd

[Streaker]

Ok FP'd again lol...

I can see you think that my case was too strong, but I felt something so I persued. However, the NRA discussion is MUCH more important and I will unvote charm tomorrow and see what happens.

[dd515087]

I don't absolutely think he's mafia, I just meant I would believe it if he was. One of Dj, mtam, and hotshot have to be lying and I was only answering mtam's 2nd question

My question to everyone, is the life of a VT worth finding out if DJ is the NRA? Or is it better that a vanilla mafia tries to out the NRA so they know not to kill it in the night?

Also mtam can you elaborate on the first question. Are you saying you believe Hotshot here?

[mtamburini]

My reads say I think Hotshot is town, but logically I think he would be the lynch for today. If he flips VT then I know DJ is NRA, but wont know his alignment. Odds are he is mafia more time then he is town. The thing people are harping on is that someone is lying but what if DJ is town and is NRA and does not want to reveal himself?

I say f*ck it and lynch hotshot, its by far the safest and we find out if DJ is lying or not.

[mtamburini]

Lynching hotshot CONFIRMS DJ is lying FMPOV. Lynching me or DJ from a town perspective is bad because

1) Lynching a PR
2) Doesnt confirm that hotshot is telling the truth about not having a roll AND being town

[mtamburini]

The basis of lynching inbetween me and DJ is useless if hotshot is lying and/or scum which is a point Ive already mentioned before.

[grt]

Hotshot's unsolicited claim is not sustainable over the long haul if he were lying. Between mtam and dj I am now inclined to believe mtam. Very possible dj doesn't want to out himself as townie NRA though. By the way, where is the vote thread?

viewtopic.php?f=213&t=208086

Don't forget "Votes not done in the correct fashion will not be counted." Crasp you have voted but not correct format

1) Who are you?
2) Who is your daddy and what does he do?
3) Define a "good" role

1. I'm town
2. He was town too
3. Maybe good was the wrong word - maybe just role would have done.

mtamburini I'm happy with your response and makes for some interesting discussion around the top 3. I'm inclined to steer clear of top few on the draw initially as statistically we are unlikely to lynch mafia first go and assuming majority of these top places got a role we could do without losing too many at the start.

I don't think we found out why some people didn't vote on which roles to ban or come to think of it I can't remember seeing anything from Some7hingCLEVER or Iron Butterfly. As they are bottom they are unlikely to have roles which could be of benefit to us and their actions (or lack of) seem a little scummy to me. I played with Iron Butterfly before and he was quite vocal if I remember correctly. I'm leaning in that direction for the moment.

[mtamburini]

Hotshot's unsolicited claim is not sustainable over the long haul if he were lying. Between mtam and dj I am now inclined to believe mtam. Very possible dj doesn't want to out himself as townie NRA though. By the way, where is the vote thread?

viewtopic.php?f=213&t=208086

Don't forget "Votes not done in the correct fashion will not be counted." Crasp you have voted but not correct format

1) Who are you?
2) Who is your daddy and what does he do?
3) Define a "good" role

1. I'm town
2. He was town too
3. Maybe good was the wrong word - maybe just role would have done.

mtamburini I'm happy with your response and makes for some interesting discussion around the top 3. I'm inclined to steer clear of top few on the draw initially as statistically we are unlikely to lynch mafia first go and assuming majority of these top places got a role we could do without losing too many at the start.

I don't think we found out why some people didn't vote on which roles to ban or come to think of it I can't remember seeing anything from Some7hingCLEVER or Iron Butterfly. As they are bottom they are unlikely to have roles which could be of benefit to us and their actions (or lack of) seem a little scummy to me. I played with Iron Butterfly before and he was quite vocal if I remember correctly. I'm leaning in that direction for the moment.

How do you feel about lynching hot shot since he claims (VT) do you think a VT is a good trade instead of lynching a potential town PR? And if he is VT then town well know that either myself or DJ is NRA (It would be DJ) Hotshot makes the assumption that one of me and DJ is mafia and is super convinced we all cant be town.

VOTE HOTSHOT TRUTH WILL SET YOU FREE

Also if hotshot does flip over VT if you dont understand the mechanics that would mean one of me and DJ are the NRA (again not me) so you shouldnt use a night action on us. Some people are herp derp and will forget that. I was thinking that someone with a night action should claim to visit me or DJ but then mafia can just meta it so thats a bad idea.

[Whatsausage]

@Whatsausage

I posted on page 6 voting for CPR Doctor. Maybe it wasn't posted correctly? I don't know, but that was my vote.

No it wasn't posted correctly, but that's been covered and I believe you have learned now

But as to what you did vote... Why? (Ignoring that the deadline had passed) It was already far and ahead with the most votes, so why not choose between NRA and Godfather, whichever you believed to be a greater threat? Instead of just rolling along with the top consensus

The deadline had not past and I think you are overstating just how far ahead it was. I believe it had 3 votes at the time.

You're right, I was confusing you with mtam's vote on the top of page 7. My Bad everyone. Although my point holds true, that at that point there was no need for a vote on it, it was going to be banned unless there was either a sudden outburst of votes for other things (unlikely) or someone flipped from it (also unlikely, because that would be a huge scum tell). So I am still suspicious here, because that vote was not really trying to be beneficial to the town imo.

But yes. Mtam did the same thing. And then disappeared. And then hotshot says either he or dj must have picked NRA because it was unavailable at three. While this doesn't clear hotshot as town either way, I tend to believe him. Otherwise a big power play for D1 (but maybe this is the game for that). I am 50/50 on his motives for waiting; while it is easy to say he wanted you to say it wasn't you beforehand, he couldn't have honestly expected a different reaction than he got from you.
Then you claim to have chosen an "against the grain" role. The only ones I can think of for that are: NRA, Emperor, traitor, and kingmaker. It has already been said that emperor probably would have popped by now, I doubt it. The earlier in the day it would have been, the more it would have just come off as a random kill. So I don't emperor is any more off the table than it was when the day began. (Though I don't believe anyone would have picked it at all.) But these are all generally negative roles for the town.

So hotshot's claim, along with your ban "vote", along with your claim the have chosen an against the grain role make me lean heavily toward lynching you right now.

One thing that's bugging me though... If mtam is scum and NRA (or just scum at all), I would think he would just claim NRA and hope we forgive him since NRA is less of a threat to everyone out in the open. Maybe he just doesn't have enough pressure yet. This train of thinking leads to a rabbit hole of why doesn't dj do the same thing however....

Also something I noticed that I think we should keep in our back pockets when we find out about this situation: it seemed like we went almost a page before it was really acknowledged that hotshot said what he did (albeit it was hidden in the middle of his post) so we either have some skimmers, or some people didn't want this conversation to happen at all (though I'm probably reading too much into that, since there was no way to really bury that)

FP'd by mtam
Well I suppose it has reached the you or him point...

[mtamburini]

Logically he would be voted out before me or DJ. If you cannot figure that out then god help you all its the most logical play

[mtamburini]

We lynch hotshot today and find out if hes telling the truth. He claims to be not a fucking role so hes VT or Vanilla Mafia. Get your head out of your asses and begin to play logically. The information from this flip is super helpful for towns game.

[mtamburini]

The only reason why I use against the grain is because 95% of you would never pick this role if you were top 2 picks because you are not confident in your reads to figure shit out on your own and need either roles that will give you information or protect yourself from lynches cause your bad at the game.

[Killuminati19]

Thanks grt, got it. Mtam, your plan isn't helpful to town if we lynch hotshot, find out he was telling the truth, then lynch dj to find that he was townie NRA. I'd like to hear more from dj.