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Re: Terminator Mafia Game Thread Day 3 Where is John Connor?

Postby MeDeFe on Wed Apr 27, 2011 5:54 am

strike wolf wrote:Yeah people we can't support this game with just me, freezie and icon...that wouldn't even be enough for a lynch.

I guess we were all eagerly waiting for the analysis of various player's behaviour you promised to deliver.


I suppose we can start with the obvious candidate: 00iCon. If iCon was town Rodion was trying to cover his own arse or throw suspicion on him. Claiming Marcus Wright hinted at Miller without knowing it himself. Claim to have busdrivered one townie and the nightkill victim, if the townie gets lynched that claim would've seemed to be substantiated, if he gets lynched he's thrown suspicion on the townie. Especially after they put the last two votes on Blake.

With the way Rodion played and managed to argue in favour of himself I'd say he's easily capable of coming up with and pulling off something like that, even in one of his first games. Of course, it might have been a double bluff to make us think he was making a townie look suspicious in order to get us to ignore a scumbuddy. This is based on quite a bit of hypothesising, though:
It is noteworthy that Rodion unvoted Blake, then Naxus counterclaimed and quickly pulled two more votes against him (edocsil who clearly was town, and jeraado who voted without any comment), then Rodion didn't revote after Blake was at L-2 but chose to wait and hammer himself after iCon had put Blake at L-1. This could mean that Rodion was trying to draw as much attention to himself as he could in order to protect a scumbuddy. Naxus had blown his own cover no matter what, but there's a possibility that there was a third scum on the wagon against Blake. If the initial distribution was 9-3 we might have the entire surviving scum faction narrowed down to 4 possible players, and one of them (Naxus) is exposed already.
I realise that I'm one of the other three suspects, and as such biased but I think it may be worth it to look into iCon a bit further, and into jeraado as well. Me looking into myself is obviously futile since I'll come up with townie no matter what.
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Re: Terminator Mafia Game Thread Day 3 Where is John Connor?

Postby 00iCon on Wed Apr 27, 2011 7:55 am

naxus wrote:I am contributing. To help speed things along vote me

Not even gonna say, "i lied because i am a pro town X"? hmmmm

@MeDeFe you make the assumption that scum do the obvious thing and join the non-scum bandwagon...
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Re: Terminator Mafia Game Thread Day 3 Where is John Connor?

Postby strike wolf on Wed Apr 27, 2011 7:59 am

Don't think I ever promised a huge post analysis on everyone...I said I would look into the most likely next scum (which I did). I know I asked for discussion before we speed lynched on the third scum before we speed lynched...either way I am nitpicking.

Your post mostly covers what I am thinking...if icon isn't the third scum it is probably jeraado and rodion trying to use his fake claim to link himself witth a townie is possible and he did seem intelligent enough to attempt such a move but tthe scum tells appear to point to icon much more than anyone else.

1. Jeraado-active day 1 semi-active since...could be scum but more redeeming town qualities (attempts at legitimate discussion) than a couple other suspects. On blake wagon.

2. Naxus-claimed same role that was lynched yesterday. Role was only in one movie so no chance of multiple roles with same name obvious scum.

3. Icon-associated self with rodion and naxus. Both proven scum. Rodion associated himself with icon through fake claim. Most likely last scum.

4. Freezie-appears town. Among strongest believers of blake's initial claim. Good solid logic from what I have read.

5. Medefe-good logic throughout. Likely town.

6. Tails-mostly inactive in all games no scum tell there. Another supporter of blake's claim. Appears townie in nature but a possible person of interest just if for need of more information.

It also would be possible for the third scum to have hidden themselves who believed blake so we cannot rule out those who initially supported blake. Freezie and tails argued pretty hard against rodion for them to have actually been scummy but that is something scum could do to sell the fake out.
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Re: Terminator Mafia Game Thread Day 3 Where is John Connor?

Postby blakebowling on Wed Apr 27, 2011 8:57 am

Kill him already!
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Re: Terminator Mafia Game Thread Day 3 Where is John Connor?

Postby MeDeFe on Wed Apr 27, 2011 8:59 am

00iCon wrote:
naxus wrote:I am contributing. To help speed things along vote me

Not even gonna say, "i lied because i am a pro town X"? hmmmm

@MeDeFe you make the assumption that scum do the obvious thing and join the non-scum bandwagon...

It depends on what the initial distribution was. Two townies were dead already, and the fewer there are the harder it gets for the scum to instigate a lynch without more than one of them voting for it.

If we assume the initial distribution was 9-3 it was already down to 7-3 on day 2, with Rodion and Naxus exposed as scum that means 4 out of 7 townies would have had to be convinced. The lynchee could obviously not be convinced to kill themselves, so effectively that means 4 out of 6 townies had to be persuaded to vote for Blake. I admit it's a possibility, but it would take a bit of luck.

If the initial distribution was 8-4, it means 4 out of 5 townies would have had to be convinced on day 2, and that is highly unlikely.
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Re: Terminator Mafia Game Thread Day 3 Where is John Connor?

Postby strike wolf on Wed Apr 27, 2011 9:01 am

blakebowling wrote:Kill him already!


*calls the ghostbusters*

We're getting to it...
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Re: Terminator Mafia Game Thread Day 3 Where is John Connor?

Postby safariguy5 on Wed Apr 27, 2011 5:46 pm

Vote Count

naxus(3)- freezie, icon, naxus

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.
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Re: Terminator Mafia Game Thread Day 3 Where is John Connor?

Postby TA1LGUNN3R on Wed Apr 27, 2011 8:49 pm

:evil: If I hadn't gone dark I feel like I could've prevented blake's lynch. I blame myself for that one. I must say, congrats to Rodion for convincing you guys to lynch the cop. What total bull.

I, however, have some slight suspicions about MeDeFe. I mentioned earlier about his case on DoomYoshi, and while I admit that was merely an observation of mine, I think he's still acting very subtly, directing attention.

MeDeFe wrote:
00iCon wrote:
blakebowling wrote:Rodion is telling the truth about his role, he didn't get roleblocked, the mafia attempted to kill icon, and the John Connor part of the day scene has nothing to do with anything

This is most likely.

Considering that the T-800 in Terminator 2 was a bodyguard, it actually is likely.


I'm pretty sure that shield, as the bodyguard, protected someone and was killed in their stead. That would beg the question about who he protected, and I would say a n00b like him would protect a claimed role because that would be the easiest to do...

and lo and behold AoG/edocsil dies the next night.

-Tails
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Re: Terminator Mafia Game Thread Day 3 Where is John Connor?

Postby 00iCon on Wed Apr 27, 2011 9:11 pm

MeDeFe wrote:If the initial distribution was 8-4, it means 4 out of 5 townies would have had to be convinced on day 2, and that is highly unlikely.

I don't even want to think about that possibility...

I guess I might as well claim now so I don't get speed lynched tomorrow. I am Kyle Reese from Salvation. VT that is all.
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Re: Terminator Mafia Game Thread Day 3 Where is John Connor?

Postby naxus on Wed Apr 27, 2011 9:48 pm

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or if you dont want to kill me as icon so eloquently put it
00iCon wrote:"i lied because i am a pro town X"


And i can come up with a good defense off that if your bored
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Haggis_McMutton wrote:2. Anyone else find it kind of funny that naxus is NK'd right after insisting that we're all paranoid?
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Re: Terminator Mafia Game Thread Day 3 Where is John Connor?

Postby 00iCon on Thu Apr 28, 2011 3:39 am

why don't you post all of your scummy fakeclaims you got.
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Re: Terminator Mafia Game Thread Day 3 Where is John Connor?

Postby MeDeFe on Thu Apr 28, 2011 3:41 am

TA1LGUNN3R wrote::evil: If I hadn't gone dark I feel like I could've prevented blake's lynch. I blame myself for that one. I must say, congrats to Rodion for convincing you guys to lynch the cop. What total bull.

I, however, have some slight suspicions about MeDeFe. I mentioned earlier about his case on DoomYoshi, and while I admit that was merely an observation of mine, I think he's still acting very subtly, directing attention.

MeDeFe wrote:
00iCon wrote:
blakebowling wrote:Rodion is telling the truth about his role, he didn't get roleblocked, the mafia attempted to kill icon, and the John Connor part of the day scene has nothing to do with anything

This is most likely.

Considering that the T-800 in Terminator 2 was a bodyguard, it actually is likely.


I'm pretty sure that shield, as the bodyguard, protected someone and was killed in their stead. That would beg the question about who he protected, and I would say a n00b like him would protect a claimed role because that would be the easiest to do...

and lo and behold AoG/edocsil dies the next night.

-Tails

I'm not sure it's possible to be so noobish as to protect someone who's claimed vanilla townie in a themed game and hasn't had their character counter-claimed, especially if you die if the person you protect is targeted, which seems to be the kind of thing a bodyguard would be told about in advance. I'm more inclined to believe the part in the scene about protecting John Connor is only part of the movie that's become flavour in this game.

If I'm right the scum killed a person at random (shieldgen) on Night 1, I'm not sure why they would kill a claimed VT on Night 2, though. If you're right it means the scum targeted the same claimed VT on both Night 1 and Night 2, and I have absolutely no idea why the scum would do that.
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Re: Terminator Mafia Game Thread Day 3 Where is John Connor?

Postby 00iCon on Thu Apr 28, 2011 7:23 am

the mission of the terminators in the movie WAS to kill john connor... maybe it's related to their victory condition. Assuming there are 3 JC's, one for each movie (except t1). maybe they win if they kill all 3...
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Re: Terminator Mafia Game Thread Day 3 Where is John Connor?

Postby MeDeFe on Thu Apr 28, 2011 7:42 am

00iCon wrote:the mission of the terminators in the movie WAS to kill john connor... maybe it's related to their victory condition. Assuming there are 3 JC's, one for each movie (except t1). maybe they win if they kill all 3...

True. That is a realistic possibility.
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Re: Terminator Mafia Game Thread Day 3 Where is John Connor?

Postby jeraado on Thu Apr 28, 2011 11:23 am

MeDeFe wrote:
00iCon wrote:the mission of the terminators in the movie WAS to kill john connor... maybe it's related to their victory condition. Assuming there are 3 JC's, one for each movie (except t1). maybe they win if they kill all 3...

True. That is a realistic possibility.


It would make a really interesting victory condition. I was about to post how unlikely it was, given that there would be major balancing issues with having only three targets for scum, but then I realised that they had targetted a claimed VT. Now that tells me that either scum didnt believe the claim, they were dumb, or they had an ulterior motive. I still wouldnt bet on this victory condition but I guess if each JC had a bodyguard or some kind of protection it might make sense. It certainly is something not to take lightly in any case.

As for our current suspects, obviously Naxus must die. He's currently at l-1 (albeit due to his own vote). We just need to make sure that we only hammer when we're ready and dont let it hit deadline.

00icon obviously has to be the next most likely. He was the only one to defend Rodion from the start and Rodion was quick to back him up. If they were experienced players (or at least players I had played with a couple of times) I would say it was just too obvious, but as newer players (at least to me) ... well, its just possible that between the three of them they thought they could cover each other.
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Re: Terminator Mafia Game Thread Day 3 Where is John Connor?

Postby strike wolf on Thu Apr 28, 2011 2:19 pm

Honestly I was just going to wait until everyone had a chance to input their thoughts but the idea that machines have to find and eliminate john connor to win is intriguing...Overall though I think that I'd have to agree that would be hard to balance though if mafia did have a win condition like that it would probably be in a small game...
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Re: Terminator Mafia Game Thread Day 3 Where is John Connor?

Postby freezie on Thu Apr 28, 2011 6:21 pm

However, this kinda IS a small game...

12 players, 3 targets.,.3 nights minimum, means around 6 deaths...Then you consider the obviously possible mistargets.

However...I don't think that matters too much, well, except that claiming to be john connor would be completly stupid now.

We need to find the robots, whatever their win condition is.
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Re: Terminator Mafia Game Thread Day 3 Where is John Connor?

Postby strike wolf on Thu Apr 28, 2011 6:31 pm

Yeah that was my intention that this is a small game perhaps about the right size. I've never considered balancing a game where the mafia has multiple specific targets. Either way you are right discussing possible winning conditions as long as the last John Connor doesn't claim unless absolutely forced. So unless anyone has any objections I think we have a common mind towards the next target so I am ready to hammer.
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Re: Terminator Mafia Game Thread Day 3 Where is John Connor?

Postby 00iCon on Thu Apr 28, 2011 8:28 pm

So no-one believes my claim :(
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Re: Terminator Mafia Game Thread Day 3 Where is John Connor?

Postby freezie on Thu Apr 28, 2011 8:30 pm

As much as I trusted Rodion's and Naxus claim Icon...
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Re: Terminator Mafia Game Thread Day 3 Where is John Connor?

Postby strike wolf on Thu Apr 28, 2011 8:52 pm

Not enough to change my mind. I'm a gonna hammer.
vote naxus
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Re: Terminator Mafia Game Thread Day 3 Where is John Connor?

Postby safariguy5 on Thu Apr 28, 2011 9:02 pm

Vote Count

naxus(4)- freezie, icon, naxus, strike wolf

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

naxus has been lynched. Scene coming up.
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Re: Terminator Mafia Game Thread Day 3 Where is John Connor?

Postby safariguy5 on Thu Apr 28, 2011 9:05 pm

Scene

With the explosion that rocked the building yesterday still fresh in everyone's mind, they immediately fell on naxus. They strung him up and pulled the lever. However, he changed his body and slithered out of the rope. So they dumped a ton of liquid nitrogen on him, then threw his frozen form into liquid iron, finishing him off for good.

naxus, T-1000 from Terminator 2, Mafia Framer has been lynched!

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It is now Night 3! 48 hours to send in night actions.
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Re: Terminator Mafia Game Thread Night 3 Burn baby Burn!

Postby naxus on Thu Apr 28, 2011 10:06 pm

damn that took a long time. Good game guys, and Go mafia!!!
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Haggis_McMutton wrote:2. Anyone else find it kind of funny that naxus is NK'd right after insisting that we're all paranoid?
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Re: Terminator Mafia Game Thread Night 3 Burn baby Burn!

Postby safariguy5 on Sat Apr 30, 2011 2:06 am

Scene

Sarah Connor walked home from her waitress job. It wasn't a lot of money for a lot of work, but she had to make ends meet somehow. As she was relaxing on the couch, a knock came at the door. When she opened it, an attractive looking woman in a red suit pulled out a futuristic looking gun and shot her point blank with it. Her body was found in the foyer of her apartment the next day by a very surprised roommate.

TA1LGUNN3R, Sarah Connor from Terminator 1, Vanilla Townie has been killed!

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It is now Day 4! With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.
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