[SPECIAL] Surprise Mafia - Over - Mafia Wins - MVP Aladdin

[AladdinSane]

No, I get wot you are saying, TWR.

At eny rate, we need to heer frum both Mets and / about there overnite activities, if eny.

[Iron Butterfly]

If / is really town he is killing us with his lack of participation.

I agree with the list TWR made.

Keep in mind that mafia meticulously killed Town power roles. Left the choice between killing a proven Town VT vs a PR that could catch scum there would be no reason not to kill the PR.

[Metsfanmax]

Keep in mind that mafia meticulously killed Town power roles. Left the choice between killing a proven Town VT vs a PR that could catch scum there would be no reason not to kill the PR.

Calling me a power role is actually pretty rich. It's already been established that I don't have a power role, I have a chance to play the lottery once a night. Last night, there were 10 players alive other than me. Of those, maybe three or four were true confirmed town. So let's say my chance of investigating a mafia to begin with is 1 out of 6. If there are two mafia left as TWR says, then the chance that the one I investigate is the one that does the kill is 50%. So my overall odds of catching scum in the act last night were 1 in 12 -- less than 10%. I don't yet pose a particularly serious threat to scum. (My target last night was CM14, who came up as not having carried a gun.) There is a time and place to be suspicious of me, but it'll take at least one more night phase before that really becomes justified.

On the other hand, killing deg actually seems like a pretty brilliant move from where I stand. He was a confirmed townie, of course. Now, it still seems possible to me that we could have some sort of protection left -- we don't have full claims from everyone yet. If we do, this protection likely would not have been placed on deg (possibly it was on me, if the person who has it thinks I am town). So he was a wide open target. Most importantly, deg is actually pretty good at this game. When you take good player and confirmed town and add them together, you always get a reasonable mafia kill target. Only a dumb mafia would have targeted me last night over someone like deg; a smart mafia is playing the long game and knows that he was a more serious threat to them in the future than I am now. The town circle is rapidly closing and they don't want to be trapped outside of it, so their best play is to shoot at the town circle. Thinking of it purely in terms of power role versus non power role is a pretty naive way to play this game, and I expect a little more from you, IB.

Furthermore, as TWR says from the WIFOM angle, I admit it does look a little suspicious that I am still alive. Surely this is part of the same strategy -- kill all the confirmed town, let the remainder eat each other alive. They're hoping you'll lynch me and take care of both of their problems in one stroke. Do not fall for it.

[Metsfanmax]

Of course had i have claimed earlier i would not have been targetted and another poor old townie would have died.....I did consider false claiming a protective role such as doc or bodyguard, but felt that i would have wasted time by misleading town and maybe you guys would have tried to lynch me resulting of course in a nolynch day.

Did you ask the mod about that? If I were modding, I wouldn't have the day end with a no lynch in this case, I would just have the day continue with no lynch having occurred. So it seems like this might have been a good move for you to have made back then... at any rate it's water under the bridge.

[Iron Butterfly]

Keep in mind that mafia meticulously killed Town power roles. Left the choice between killing a proven Town VT vs a PR that could catch scum there would be no reason not to kill the PR.

Calling me a power role is actually pretty rich. It's already been established that I don't have a power role, I have a chance to play the lottery once a night. Last night, there were 10 players alive other than me. Of those, maybe three or four were true confirmed town. So let's say my chance of investigating a mafia to begin with is 1 out of 6. If there are two mafia left as TWR says, then the chance that the one I investigate is the one that does the kill is 50%. So my overall odds of catching scum in the act last night were 1 in 12 -- less than 10%. I don't yet pose a particularly serious threat to scum. (My target last night was CM14, who came up as not having carried a gun.) There is a time and place to be suspicious of me, but it'll take at least one more night phase before that really becomes justified.

On the other hand, killing deg actually seems like a pretty brilliant move from where I stand. He was a confirmed townie, of course. Now, it still seems possible to me that we could have some sort of protection left -- we don't have full claims from everyone yet. If we do, this protection likely would not have been placed on deg (possibly it was on me, if the person who has it thinks I am town). So he was a wide open target. Most importantly, deg is actually pretty good at this game. When you take good player and confirmed town and add them together, you always get a reasonable mafia kill target. Only a dumb mafia would have targeted me last night over someone like deg; a smart mafia is playing the long game and knows that he was a more serious threat to them in the future than I am now. The town circle is rapidly closing and they don't want to be trapped outside of it, so their best play is to shoot at the town circle. Thinking of it purely in terms of power role versus non power role is a pretty naive way to play this game, and I expect a little more from you, IB.

Furthermore, as TWR says from the WIFOM angle, I admit it does look a little suspicious that I am still alive. Surely this is part of the same strategy -- kill all the confirmed town, let the remainder eat each other alive. They're hoping you'll lynch me and take care of both of their problems in one stroke. Do not fall for it.

[Iron Butterfly]

Your role is what it is. It can supposedly catch someone.

[madmitch]

HANG ME if not vote mets What happens if I am not a jester ?

[the white rose]

HANG ME if not vote mets What happens if I am not a jester ?

if you are jester than stop voting for scum suspects and you might get lynched.

in fact, no, i doubt you will be lynched in any case.

any chance of a proper claim from you mitch?

[the white rose]

No, I get wot you are saying, TWR.

good. then i suggest we leave mets until we have got the other scum, if we get scum tonight and mets is scum, then we win the game tomorrow.

there is still a chance that mets is not scum and might get lucky and deliver us good lynch

[AladdinSane]

No, I get wot you are saying, TWR.

good. then i suggest we leave mets until we have got the other scum, if we get scum tonight and mets is scum, then we win the game tomorrow.

there is still a chance that mets is not scum and might get lucky and deliver us good lynch

Yeh, that makes sense. So, who do you suggest fer today?

[AladdinSane]

Re: Mets investimagating CM

Mets knows he is facing a linch today or tomorow. So wot can we conclude frum his stated resolt frum last nite?

If Mets is Town, we can take dis at face value, and it's not a bad choise fer an investimagashun - tho I wood have liked to have seen Player or / insted. Orso, it cleers CM slitely, or at leest dozent incriminate him.

If Mets is Mafia, den teh most obvius play fer him wood have been to (a) falsely incriminate a Town. If beleeved, dis wood have teh efeckt of not only buying him a day, but taking down a Town wit him. But Mets dident incriminate CM, so did isent wot hapened.

Teh next most obvius play wood be too (b) falsely cleer a scum buddy. But dis wood be epicly stupid, becorse not only wood it not buy Mets a day, but teh scum buddy wood be dammed by associashun when Mets flipped. It's obvius Mets woodent make sutch a stupid play, so dis isent wot hapened ither.

So maybe scum-Mets (c) "cleered" a Town? He mite have thort we wood linch him today, and then teh Town he "cleered" (i.e. CM) wood be dammed by associashun and linched tomorow. Dis is posibul, but not optimal fer scum-Mets. His best strategy wood have been to go wit teh firt opshun (a), i.e. incriminate a Town, thus buying a day fer himself if beleeved AND taking down a Town wit him.

So, wether Mets is Town or Mafia, CM comes out of dis looking slitely beter. Orso, becorse teh strategy Mets employed is sub-optimal fer scum-Mets, it mite make him look a littul less scummy too. UNLESS, of corse, he was antisipating we wood reeson along dese lines and geting orl WIFOMy on us.

[AladdinSane]

if we get scum tonight and mets is scum, then we win the game tomorrow.

Wun ting I am wundering is why you beleeve der is only two Mafia left? I beleeve their is at leest teh posibility of tree.

[AladdinSane]

by keeping quiet, it allowed town a murder free night on night 3 when i do believe i was targetted. Alas, since then mafia have left me alone, no doubt suspecting i was bulletproof. Last night I was hoping they might have taken another shot at me as i would have thought being a confirmed townie i would have been a better kill than poor old deg.

I inishally thort dis was plorsibul, but now I am not so shore. Wen der was no NK on N3, I orijinally thort teh NK fer dat nite had been thworted by a hidden Doc and, sinse you were refusing (wisely, I tink) to go along wit Storr's massclaim corl, dat you mite have been dat Doc. Nachurally I dident say enyting and encourajed eny hidden Doc to stay hidden. Now I am tinking agin dat maybe der was a Doc save on N3.

Consider teh patern of NKs over teh first four nites:

N1: Marashu (cop)
N2: PTLowe (cop)
N3: no kill
N4 Marashu agin (cop)

Obviusly Mafia was intent on taking out our cops. So why wood dey target you in teh middul of dat? Marashu was awreddy revived on D3, so he wood have been teh obvius target for N3. And we know dat Mafia did want him ded, sinse dey killed him agin N4. I'm tinking dat dey tried to kill Marashu agin N3, but it dident hapen fer sum reeson. Marashu cood have been very damaging and in fact it was becorse he dident die N3 and lived to report a resolt on TWR dat TWR got efectively cleered when Marashu was killed agin and flipped Town Insane Cop.

IF dis is wot hapened, den Mafia must have been wundering wot went rong, and teh obvius conclusion was dat dere was a Doc save. Wing had claimed CPR Doc, so dat was a posibility, but no way wood Wing have risked "saving" Marashu, for feer of killing him insted. Storr was orso making various claims about having Doc saves, and he wood have been motivated to pertect Marashu, whom he had just revived. I'm gonna have to go back and check if Storr did in fact make a claim fer saving on N3. I tink he did, becorse their were demands fer him to eggsplain how he cood have revived Marashu AND done Doc saves on teh same nite.

But if Mafia concluded Storr wasent behind teh save on Marashu, dey mite have concluded their is still a Doc among us, and are hunting for him (or her). In a feeld of 28, it woodent be supprising to have a backup doc. Sinse TWR softclaimed bulletproof, dey mite well have left him alone post-N3.

Orso, having taken out teh cops, dey terned there atenshuns to teh inventers. Now dat the inventers are ded, there choises seems to be: confermed / neerly confermed Town (Benga, RB - not TWR sinse he seems to be impervius to atack); Mets (asuming fer teh moment he is Town) wit his so-far neerly useless claimed power; / (asuming fer teh moment he is Town) wit his claimed power dat prob is useless now dat teh Mafia rollblokker is ded, me wit my now-useless power; and random other Town, whoever dey mite be ( ???). Who wood be teh best choise? I dunno. Both Mets' claimed power and a hidden Doc wood becum moor powerful as teh pool shrinks. On teh other hand, chipping away at teh twusted cirkul makes it harder fer Town to vote as a coheesive hole.

If Mafia ARE hunting a hidden Doc, dey prob wont look firt amung those of us with claimed PRs (Mets, /, Aladdin), and dis mite be another reeson why Deg. Not only neerly confermed Town, but maybe a hidden Doc.

[Iron Butterfly]

if we get scum tonight and mets is scum, then we win the game tomorrow.

Wun ting I am wundering is why you beleeve der is only two Mafia left? I beleeve their is at leest teh posibility of tree.

I agree. 5 mafia in a 28 player game is still a low number.

[AladdinSane]

Okay, ferther to my erlier post on N3 activities:

Storr either sed he was eggsperiensing consipashun, or he dident do enyting (including saves) on N3, prob teh latter, Hear he is erly D4:

I didn't do shit last night

So, if Mafia tried to kill Marashu N3 as I suspect, Storr had ruled hisself out as Marashu's savior.

Their were qwestjuns been asked after LSU TJ died on N5 why him and not Ragian. If Mafia beleeved their is a hidden Doc, it cood eggsplain dat - dey wood have feered going fer teh most obvius target, antisipating a save. I'm not shore why Ragian wozent saved N6 tho - he wood seem to have been teh obvius target, unless a hidden Doc saved Mets insted. Targeting Deg on N7 mite have been teh resolt of similar tinking. Maybe Mafia feered dat Mets wood be perteckted and chose to go after Deg insted. It cood be dat a hidden Doc and Mafia have been playing a game of cat-and-mouse under our noses fer a few days now. Sum of dis is a bit spekulative of corse, but I reely dont see why Mafia wood have targeted TWR on N3 - he wasent confermed Town at dat point (dat hapened wen Marashu died teh secund time, on N4), and hadent claimed a roll, so how cood he have presented a more valubul target than Marashu?

Enyway, if their IS a hidden Doc out their, stay hidden!

[the white rose]

Aladdin, you are quite right, on N3 i was not confirmed town, however, mafia knew i was town and that i was refusing to claim, giving strong inferences that i could indeed have been a doc.

It is quite possible that i was not targetted that night and the kill failed cos of a hidden doc as you say, however, I would have thought between that time and this, mafia would have tried to kill me, especially if as you say they are looking for a hidden doc, i would have thought i would have been the prime suspect for that.

Certainly last night who would you have wanted to kill? a townie who had not yet been totally confirmed or a confirmed townie with a hidden PR, who may well have been a backup doc?

the fact that they did not try to kill me last night leads me to believe that they had already tried to kill me (on N3) and found me bulletproof,

as both you and ib have stated, most likely will be 3 more scum to find, and yes, i agree if we do have a doc left, please stay hidden.

Still cannot understand Storr and WCG for advocating a mass claim and getting our cop killed. thats why i went after Storr as much as I did, cannot believe that was anything but scum motivated.

[the white rose]

as to which of the 4 i have highlighted would i vote for.....on the face of it may well be that 3 are scum, but there is not much to choose between them, i think on balance i would go for player but due to the flimsiest of evidence, based upon her slip the other day.

[AladdinSane]

@TWR:

I fermly beleeve revived marashu was teh lojikal NK fer N3. Simerly teh inventers on N4 and N5 - only qwestjun, as you yerself pointed out, was teh order in witch dey were killed. You wundered why LSU TJ was NKed firt. And on D5, dis eggschange took place between us:

Wile where on teh topic of scum misteries, hear is another I dont tink we ever cleered up: Why was their no NK on N3? Evry nite before and sinse their has been an NK. It mite be coinsidense, but dat was teh nite Rish says he jailed IB, I beleeve. Ackording to Storr, his saves were eggsausted by dat point and we dont know of eny other saving powers.

I wouldn't stress over that if i were you.

I believe that i was responsible for a no night kill on n3.

By refusing to tell mafia my role, it caused them to guess wrong and resulted in a no kill....had i revealed my role i am sure somebody would have died

At dis point, I took it dat you were softclaiming buletproof - i.e. you thort Mafia targeted you N3 and if you had reveeled yer roll, Mafia wood have left you alone and killed sumwun else. I'm pritty shore I wasent alone in asuming you were claiming buletproof, so dat wood eggsplain why Mafia did not target you N6.

To me, Mafia's NK program looks pritty lojikal: kill teh cops, then kill teh inventers (who were inventing copcheck stuff sutch as teh glases and alinement definer), then others (but not TWR). Sinse N3, they've been playing wit teh order of teh kills, to avoid been blokked by a hidden Doc.

But qwestjuns remain about teh hidden Doc's saving choises: Why not pertect Marashu agin on N4? Well, maybe teh hidden Doc gessed (rongly) dat Mafia woodent target Marashu agin rite after been blokked. And why not pertect Ragian on N6? Agin, maybe a rong gess. Maybe Mets, as teh last investimagative power, got pertected.

So, TWR, I dont tink Mafia has targeted you fer NK, and I don't eggspect them to in teh future. Mets, as teh only known power roll, seems like teh obvius candidate fer perteckshun, so Mafia mite well leeve him alone too, and insted NK neerly-confermed Town in teh hope of hitting teh hidden Doc.

[AladdinSane]

Slite change to teh last para:

"Mets, as teh only known power roll potenshally danjerus to Mafia"

[PLAYER57832]

A question, what exactly does a doc do? I don't think I understood it correctly.

[AladdinSane]

A question, what exactly does a doc do? I don't think I understood it correctly.

A Doctor is a role that targets a player at Night to protect that player from a single kill made during that Night. They are not told if their protection was successful. Protection from a single kill means that if multiple players try to kill someone, they will not be saved by one Doctor's protection.

Doctors are usually not allowed to self-target.

http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Doctor

[/]

I agree that Mets is very likely scum, for the reasons I had said in previous days.
Though I do wonder why IB is saying vote mets, rather than, you know, voting Mets...

Vote Mets

I didn't use my power, like folks have said, it's basically useless at this point... Unless there's a busdriver or something?

[the white rose]

I agree that Mets is very likely scum, for the reasons I had said in previous days.
Though I do wonder why IB is saying vote mets, rather than, you know, voting Mets...

Vote Mets

I didn't use my power, like folks have said, it's basically useless at this point... Unless there's a busdriver or something?

remind me, what power

[the white rose]

Consider teh patern of NKs over teh first four nites:

N1: Marashu (cop)
N2: PTLowe (cop)
N3: no kill
N4 Marashu agin (cop)

Obviusly Mafia was intent on taking out our cops.

so that begs the question, why not take out our cop enabler and neutralize all the cops in one go?

[Metsfanmax]

Enyway, if their IS a hidden Doc out their, stay hidden!

If this is a possibility it might also help to explain why mafia targeted a VT.