[SPECIAL] Surprise Mafia - Over - Mafia Wins - MVP Aladdin

[degaston]

... B) removed the possibility mafia could be killed at night by him.

Is there something in "Third Party Delusional Escapee from Esylum (3rd party survivor)" that indicates he had a killing power?

I don't understand the delusional part. It sounds similar to insane, but I thought that was only for Cops and Doctors. Can anyone explain that?

[the white rose]

and the sad thing is that most of town agreed and believed hotshot.

Wait, if most of the Town believed HS, why did they lynch him?

because he admitted he was not town. seems that we prefer to lynch 3p's than try to find and lynch scum. Yes he may have been able to kill town, but equally may have helped and killed scum....who knows with 3p's?

Anyway nothing to say till we see what happens tonight.

[AladdinSane]

It was the recent Beginner's Mafia game, if you are inclined to go to the archives and look thru it. You'll see that what I have said here is true.

I believe you. Why are you putting so much thought into building a watertight motive for all your moves? Is this the actions of inexperienced town? No.
]/quote]

Wait, you find it suspicious that I pointed out a way that you (or anyone) can verify my story? That's...that's ridicurous. How much experience do you think a player needs befour they realize they need to be able to defend there motfs? It's kinds obvius, if you ask me.

1) There's already momentum behind this, and we might not be able to reach a consensus on anyone else in time; and

Why is there momentum? Is it because you have been pushing it alongside IB? Do you accept no blame for this?

There is no blame to accept, because linching HS was a good thing. Look on the bright side - we didn't linch a Town, esp. a PR, and it i still on the cards that HS posed a threat to Town somehow. THis is SUPPRISE MAfia, after all. And what was the alternative? There were no other real leads. Sure, I was in favor of the HS linch, and I still think the reasons for it were solid.

2) HS isn't claiming that Town needs him alive - he more or less has said he is expendable to Town. On the other hand,

And?

3) IB is claiming that HS's survival is dangerous to Town. Also

Correction: IB is claiming HS is dangerous, he is not claiming that HS is specifically anti-town.

Any move we made was a gambel. HS's defense indicated that the cost of mistakenly linching him was low, while IB's claim indicated the cost of mistakenly not linching HS was high. In the absense of further data, it was reasonable to linch HS.

You have already been corrected by someone else about IB's claim: He DID claim, several times, that HS was scum.

4) HS's death will tell us something useful about IB - i.e. If HS flips other than survivor, we look hard at IB. But

Great, we learn about one player, I'm overjoyed. What about the 26 others in the game?

Slow down, hoss! What possible strategy would have resulted in us lerning, on D1, about 26 playas? Linching someone else would have yielded info about precisely won playa two.

5) IB's death won't tell us anything about HS - the point of lynching D1 is to gain information, so lynching IB would defeat the purpose of the D1 lynch. Suppose he flips scum - Great! Town has killed scum. But what if he flips 3P lyncher or VT? We're still at square one, that's what - we don't know any more about HS (or anyone else) than we did before.

Why is it a 2 horse race? I like that you identify that lynching IB is pointless as it doesnt tell us something, but justify lynching Hotshot in point 4 on the basis that it tells us basically nothing.

It was a two hoarse rase becos their was so littul to go on with any other playa. HS v IB was teh only game in town. Lynching HS gave us info on too playas - HS and IB. We lerned that HS was a delusional escapee survivor, and from that we lerned that IB's claim was at leest partially veridikal. Any other linch would have only yielded info on won playa, so from this perspektive to, HS was the rite linch.

Frankly, I find it increasingly suspicious the way you have come after me as soon as you got into teh game, as if you are making up for lost time afterTim failed to join teh game. I can understand that you mite want to question me, and that's fine, but too go strait two a vote on me? That seems to be pushing it just a littul two hard too bee reel. FOS @ WCG.

[degaston]

I think I have this quoted right - next time, use preview:

3) IB is claiming that HS's survival is dangerous to Town. Also

Correction: IB is claiming HS is dangerous, he is not claiming that HS is specifically anti-town.

Any move we made was a gambel. HS's defense indicated that the cost of mistakenly linching him was low, while IB's claim indicated the cost of mistakenly not linching HS was high. In the absense of further data, it was reasonable to linch HS.

You have already been corrected by someone else about IB's claim: He DID claim, several times, that HS was scum.

No, IB specifically said that he did not think that HotShot was scum.

The person is ANTI TOWN. I do not believe mafia.

... etc.

I don't think the HotShot lynch was a bad thing. D1 cases are usually pretty weak, and odds are good of lynching a townie, so this is definitely preferable. But allowing more discussion could have at least helped people to know where to direct their night actions. Think about that next time before voting for someone that already has several votes.

[Metsfanmax]

Going forward, I don't think we should drop the case on IB. My suspicion was that HS was part of a third party group, but now that he has been revealed as a survivor, that means IB is almost certainly lying or withholding information. As even IB admits, it's just insanely unbalanced for him to have known HS' identity from the start, much more so than we should expect even from this game.

It's possible that this is one of those times where he has to withhold (because of mod restriction) or needs to withhold (because telling the truth would be really bad for town). But that doesn't mean we should forget about it.

[WingCmdr Ginkapo]

needs to withhold (because telling the truth would be really bad for town). But that doesn't mean we should forget about it.

Mets think about it, its this one

[Metsfanmax]

needs to withhold (because telling the truth would be really bad for town). But that doesn't mean we should forget about it.

Mets think about it, its this one

Obviously I have thought about it, as I brought it up to begin with. However, I am not quite as confident as you that this is the scenario. Furthermore I am not even confident that IB is town and therefore has a reason to be honest. HS flipping 3P doesn't say anything about IB's alignment. Furthermore IB can't really fault me for going after him like this, after how proud he is of his LaL stance. And even if you're right, it doesn't hurt to keep talking about it, as long as IB stays silent about whatever his secret is.

[degaston]

3) IB is claiming that HS's survival is dangerous to Town. Also

Correction: IB is claiming HS is dangerous, he is not claiming that HS is specifically anti-town.

Any move we made was a gambel. HS's defense indicated that the cost of mistakenly linching him was low, while IB's claim indicated the cost of mistakenly not linching HS was high. In the absense of further data, it was reasonable to linch HS.

You have already been corrected by someone else about IB's claim: He DID claim, several times, that HS was scum.

No, IB specifically said that he did not think that HotShot was scum.

The person is ANTI TOWN. I do not believe mafia.

... etc.

Correction, I just noticed that at one point, IB said:

Hotshot IS scum...

Though it seems like more often he said that he thought HotShot was not scum, but just anti-town. IB usually says lynch all liars, but my personal feeling is that this is a minor slip of the fingers.

[degaston]

Going forward, I don't think we should drop the case on IB.

Aside from the discrepancy I just pointed out, what do you think is the case on IB?

My suspicion was that HS was part of a third party group, but now that he has been revealed as a survivor, that means IB is almost certainly lying or withholding information.

So HotShot claims to be a survivor, but you don't believe him, then it turns out you were wrong, so that means that IB is lying about something or withholding information? Can you explain your logic?

As even IB admits, it's just insanely unbalanced for him to have known HS' identity from the start, much more so than we should expect even from this game.

MOD NOTE: I don't know any other way to put this, so here goes: expect bastard roles/mechanics to some extent.

I agree that it's strange, but it appears that the mods aren't ruling anything out. Why are you?

It's possible that this is one of those times where he has to withhold (because of mod restriction) or needs to withhold (because telling the truth would be really bad for town). But that doesn't mean we should forget about it.

IB's story seems to match what's happened so far. I'm not saying we forget about him - but he's claimed to be VT now, so I think it would be better not to get too focused on one player right now.

But I'll still add a couple of things I noticed:

• IB says that he can now win with town - does that mean he can only win with town, or has he already achieved his win condition?
• IB unvoted, and was not in on the lynch. In the guide I use, it says that a lyncher has to be in on the vote in order to achieve his win condition. I guess the mods could do anything they want, but what's happened doesn't quite fit the standard definition of a lyncher.

[degaston]

FP'ed by Mets.

The only problem with continuing to talk about IB is that his claim dominated D1, so I'd rather not have him dominate N1 and D2 as well.

[WingCmdr Ginkapo]

FP'ed by Mets.

The only problem with continuing to talk about IB is that his claim dominated D1, so I'd rather not have him dominate N1 and D2 as well.

Thoughts on Aladdin or White Rose being mafia?

I enjoyed your post at the end of D1 where you complained about everyone only talking about Hotshot and IB whilst writing an essay about the two of them.

[degaston]

FP'ed by Mets.

The only problem with continuing to talk about IB is that his claim dominated D1, so I'd rather not have him dominate N1 and D2 as well.

Thoughts on Aladdin or White Rose being mafia?

I don't have a strong feeling about either one yet. They're both trying to look pro-town in their own way, as anyone would, but I don't see anything specific to target at this point. It will take some time to go back over aladdin's posts.

I enjoyed your post at the end of D1 where you complained about everyone only talking about Hotshot and IB whilst writing an essay about the two of them.

I didn't think I wrote any essays, though sometimes posts get long because of quoting. What post are you referring to?

[WingCmdr Ginkapo]

Bottom of page 18. Two posts.

What reads do you want to discuss if not those two?

[AladdinSane]

What reads do you want to discuss if not those two?

I'd like to hear Degaston's reads on yourself and thechuck.

[AladdinSane]

Dam! Mispel mispel mispel mispel funk shot batch cant aaaargh!!!

[WingCmdr Ginkapo]

What reads do you want to discuss if not those two?

I'd like to hear Degaston's reads on yourself and thechuck.

Why do you ask about TheChuck?

[AladdinSane]

HIYA GANG!

Why should town kill Hotshot? IB is claiming that Hotshot is some form of 3rd party killer. If this is the case then Mafia can kill him. There is nothing in that role that makes him more dangerous to town than mafia, so I couldnt give a crap until numbers drop.

...

Now how about we actually look for mafia? Oh right yeah that would be a good idea!

So first up we have Aladdin. Acting dubious by voting the mod, (early scum tell) and then does something extremelly suspect. Accepts IB's case immediately without questioning and deduces a lot of additional information about it. Now lets look at this, an INEXPERIENCED player can understand IB's hints easier than both Storr and Mets.... Its almost like he had helpful information.

My conclusion is that Aladdin is mafia and got over excited by the idea of a non-mafia lynch led by a non-mafia player. I'm convinced at this point that Hotshot is 3rd party of some form, and that IB is not mafia.

So Vote Aladdin.

Next up we have a player who has been dubiously inactive, claiming there is nothing to talk about.... An odd claim in a game where IB has joined Storr in stirring the pot.

ok, aladin you have really rubbed me up the wrong way.

you are clearly scum as a townie would not commit murder the way you have done.....therefore unvote vote aladin

oh and before you ask who has been murdered, the victim is the english language.

don't think i can stand more than 2 weeks of this torture.

How does everyone read this post? Firstly it has a spelling mistake in the first line, lacks capitalisation and punctuation in multiple places, yet claims to care about the english language. Secondly, it discusses an issue than has been repeatedly discussed and concluded not to be Aladdins fault.

Conclusion: Its a fabricated reason to get an early vote on a mafia partner so later can claim disassociation if the other should be lynched. A common inexperienced player mistake. This is backed up by all the reasons that PT and Sausage are raising.

This is WC Ginkapo's very first post in the game. He just casually brushes aside teh main topic of discussion (HS v IB) and proceeds to go after TWR and myslef in the name of hunting Mafia, even though it is D1 and proceeds to make very weak cases against each of us.

To me, this hyper-aggressive approach reads like a possible attempt to put heat on a cupple of playas in the hope of looking Town. In fact, his case against TWR is so laffably weak (Ooooh, he didn't get his speling, punctuashun and capilizashun right, he must be Mafia!) that I almost suspect TWR of being your scum buddy.

Put that up with his attack on me based on a modlynch joke (anover inkredibly week point) and it really looks like a ditermined attempt to generate heat from nothing.

[AladdinSane]

Oh, and as I menshuned befour, wham! strait to a vote befour I even had a chance to reply. Hmmm...

[AladdinSane]

Correction, I just noticed that at one point, IB said:

Hotshot IS scum...

Though it seems like moroe often he said that he thought HotShot was not scum, but just anti-town. IB usually says lynch all liars, but my personal feeling is that this is a minor slip of the fingers.

There was a discussion earlier about teh exact meaning of "scum" - specifically Mafia, or anti-Town in genral. You wood have scene it if you had red more carefuly. It looks like peeple use teh term for both meanings. Maybe we shood drop "scum" and just use "Mafia" and "anti-Town".

[AladdinSane]

I don't think the HotShot lynch was a bad thing. D1 cases are usually pretty weak, and odds are good of lynching a townie, so this is definitely preferable. But allowing more discussion could have at least helped people to know where to direct their night actions. Think about that next time before voting for someone that already has several votes.

That dozen make sense, since nite talk is allowed. We are, in facked, continuing the dizcushun.

[AladdinSane]

Going forward, I don't think we should drop the case on IB.

I agree. Teh IB / HS thing was importan enuf to the mods for them to insert it rite at teh start of teh game. My feeling is that it wil bee key to how teh game plays out and we need to get too teh the botom of it.

As four all the coments about HotShot geting a raw deel from the mods, I don't think so. He cood, I gess, have come up with just about any defenz he cood think ov (he diden say he was post-restricted) - even won that turned the heat bak on IB. So, reely, he cood have mounted a defenz that wood encouraje playas to spare him. It woz just IB's werd against hiz. But, wiv the defenz he mounted, he pracktically linched himself.

[degaston]

I don't think the HotShot lynch was a bad thing. D1 cases are usually pretty weak, and odds are good of lynching a townie, so this is definitely preferable. But allowing more discussion could have at least helped people to know where to direct their night actions. Think about that next time before voting for someone that already has several votes.

That dozen make sense, since nite talk is allowed. We are, in facked, continuing the dizcushun.

By hammering, you ended D1 seven calendar days early. That's a lot of potential discussion time lost. Yes, people are still discussing, but those with night actions now have 48 hours to get their actions in, instead of nine days.

[Metsfanmax]

Going forward, I don't think we should drop the case on IB.

Aside from the discrepancy I just pointed out, what do you think is the case on IB?

Why are you asking a question that is immediately answered in the next few sentences? Are you intentionally trying to be a jerk, or to be obfuscating? The case on IB, provided in the very next sentence which you quoted and therefore likely read, is that he is "almost certainly lying or withholding information."

So HotShot claims to be a survivor, but you don't believe him, then it turns out you were wrong, so that means that IB is lying about something or withholding information? Can you explain your logic?

Yes, I can and did explain my logic in the very next sentence, so why are you asking this question? The logic being that it's extremely unlikely that town IB would just have started the game with free information on a non-town player. Next time please don't ask pointless questions, because I'm not going to answer them.

As even IB admits, it's just insanely unbalanced for him to have known HS' identity from the start, much more so than we should expect even from this game.

MOD NOTE: I don't know any other way to put this, so here goes: expect bastard roles/mechanics to some extent.

I agree that it's strange, but it appears that the mods aren't ruling anything out. Why are you?

What does "to some extent" mean to you? Is that equivalent to "anything goes" in your mind? Maybe that would explain your lack of comprehension here. Either way, this inability to comprehend what is going is not very helpful. As in, I say that we should keep an eye on IB because I don't think his story is fully truthful, and you somehow twist that into I'm completely ruling his story out. It's pretty scummy actually.

[virus90]

well that escalated quickly.. damn it so many posts.
i can comment on IB hotshot discussion but i read it only now so the outcome is known, to easy to comment on it now in my opinion.
not gonna comment on reads for the night cause if im right i might get killed
hope to get more in for day 2 but damn that went faster then i expected.

[AladdinSane]

What reads do you want to discuss if not those two?

I'd like to hear Degaston's reads on yourself and thechuck.

Why do you ask about TheChuck?

I don't quyte recorl rite now. I remember being a littul suspishus ov him, but I'll hav to do a reread tomorow to recorl why.