[SPECIAL] Surprise Mafia - Over - Mafia Wins - MVP Aladdin

[Iron Butterfly]

Going forward, I don't think we should drop the case on IB. My suspicion was that HS was part of a third party group, but now that he has been revealed as a survivor, that means IB is almost certainly lying or withholding information. As even IB admits, it's just insanely unbalanced for him to have known HS' identity from the start, much more so than we should expect even from this game.

It's possible that this is one of those times where he has to withhold (because of mod restriction) or needs to withhold (because telling the truth would be really bad for town). But that doesn't mean we should forget about it.

Also a convenient way to make sure mafia is not lynched on day 2.

[AladdinSane]

By hammering, you ended D1 seven calendar days early. That's a lot of potential discussion time lost. Yes, people are still discussing, but those with night actions now have 48 hours to get their actions in, instead of nine days.

Good! Bring it on! But this is making me thimk maybe you hav a nite ackshun, no? You seem very conserned, whereas the TWELVE people who voted to linch HS apparently wernt wurried about ending teh day erly.

[WingCmdr Ginkapo]

How much experience do you think a player needs befour they realize they need to be able to defend there motfs? It's kinds obvius, if you ask me.

Please defend your motives for asking people to look into Chuck.

(I am somewhat aware I'm now just crucifying a newbie)

[Metsfanmax]

IB says that he can now win with town - does that mean he can only win with town, or has he already achieved his win condition?

Usually if someone achieves their win condition, that is immediately revealed in the scene, and sometimes they're removed from the game at that point too. But in any case IB's comments make it clear that he hasn't won yet.

IB unvoted, and was not in on the lynch. In the guide I use, it says that a lyncher has to be in on the vote in order to achieve his win condition. I guess the mods could do anything they want, but what's happened doesn't quite fit the standard definition of a lyncher.

IB unvoted right after commenting that he's not a lyncher, and in fact made it sound like he was unvoting specifically to prove that point, so that much seems clear already.

Also a convenient way to make sure mafia is not lynched on day 2.

I don't know what you're talking about. First, I don't know that you're not mafia. Second, I wasn't saying that we should lynch you on D2 -- with the information I presently have, you're nowhere near the top of my preferred D2 lynch list. I was saying that your story isn't over yet, regardless of what you say.

[Iron Butterfly]

People crack me up. I was given the role I was given. Fair for HS or not, it was what it was. Focusing on me will only waste a day.

I was told HS would cause harm to Town and he needed to be lynched BUT I was restricted from saying what exactly Hotshot was. I was not told he was a survivor. I was told he was an escaped inmate. As I have stated from the beginning my role was very simple.

You focus on me day 2 Mets you will be considered scum in my book.

[AladdinSane]

Also a convenient way to make sure mafia is not lynched on day 2.

Dozen hav too bee a linch, IB - maybe just an investigashun if their is a kop or ovver investigative roll.

Also, I don't fink we can rool out the pozzibility that you are Mafia - HS mite have been just as danjerous to Mafia as to Town, and if you were Mafia you wood have a reason to try to get him linched.

[Iron Butterfly]

Wellll....anything could happen with all the unkowns.It's all out of my control at this point.

I guarantee there is mafia on that lynch though.

[AladdinSane]

How much experience do you think a player needs befour they realize they need to be able to defend there motfs? It's kinds obvius, if you ask me.

Please defend your motives for asking people to look into Chuck.

(I am somewhat aware I'm now just crucifying a newbie)

I've already posted I need to reread to recorl my reasons for being a littul suspishus of thechuck, and I'll do it tomorow (it's 3:18 am here).

I think that teh only playa you are crucifying is yerself.

[degaston]

What does "to some extent" mean to you? Is that equivalent to "anything goes" in your mind? Maybe that would explain your lack of comprehension here. Either way, this inability to comprehend what is going is not very helpful. As in, I say that we should keep an eye on IB because I don't think his story is fully truthful, and you somehow twist that into I'm completely ruling his story out. It's pretty scummy actually.

To me, "Some extent" means that there will be some bastard roles/mechanics in the game.

The logic being that it's extremely unlikely that town IB would just have started the game with free information on a non-town player.

"Extremely unlikely", as in, only a bastard mod would do that, right?
So the mod says that there will be bastard roles/mechanics, and that's exactly what we see with IB, and yet you think it's "extremely unlikely", because... WHY?

FP'ed a bunch of times.

[Metsfanmax]

"Extremely unlikely", as in, only a bastard mod would do that, right?
So the mod says that there will be bastard roles/mechanics, and that's exactly what we see with IB, and yet you think it's "extremely unlikely", because... WHY?

Why are you being so obtuse on this issue? There's a sliding scale of bastardness. Would you agree that it's extremely unlikely that there's a person in the game whose role is "post once and you win?" Of course that's extremely unlikely. It's extremely unlikely even if we agree that there's some bastard roles/mechanics in the game. I'm applying similar logic to IB -- the fact that there may be some bastard roles doesn't mean that I have to grant that every bastard role presented is legit.

[Metsfanmax]

People crack me up. I was given the role I was given. Fair for HS or not, it was what it was. Focusing on me will only waste a day.

I was told HS would cause harm to Town and he needed to be lynched BUT I was restricted from saying what exactly Hotshot was. I was not told he was a survivor. I was told he was an escaped inmate. As I have stated from the beginning my role was very simple.

You focus on me day 2 Mets you will be considered scum in my book.

Who should I focus on instead?

[Iron Butterfly]

People crack me up. I was given the role I was given. Fair for HS or not, it was what it was. Focusing on me will only waste a day.

I was told HS would cause harm to Town and he needed to be lynched BUT I was restricted from saying what exactly Hotshot was. I was not told he was a survivor. I was told he was an escaped inmate. As I have stated from the beginning my role was very simple.

You focus on me day 2 Mets you will be considered scum in my book.

Who should I focus on instead?

Your the smart man. You have been given plenty of info for day one besides HS and myself. Your either choosing to ignore it or not as smart as I have been giving you credit for. Whatever the reason perhaps we should see what the night brings and then continue this discussion when the smoke clears.

[degaston]

"Extremely unlikely", as in, only a bastard mod would do that, right?
So the mod says that there will be bastard roles/mechanics, and that's exactly what we see with IB, and yet you think it's "extremely unlikely", because... WHY?

Why are you being so obtuse on this issue? There's a sliding scale of bastardness. Would you agree that it's extremely unlikely that there's a person in the game whose role is "post once and you win?" Of course that's extremely unlikely. It's extremely unlikely even if we agree that there's some bastard roles/mechanics in the game. I'm applying similar logic to IB -- the fact that there may be some bastard roles doesn't mean that I have to grant that every bastard role presented is legit.

The fact is, IB pretty much nailed HotShot's role, so I don't know what mechanic would provide him with that information, and make him want to get HotShot lynched, at the possible risk of being lynched himself, other than being provided that information and goal by the mod. Do you think he came up with "Insane Asylum Guard" on his own? Do you think it was provided to scum as a safe cover, and IB decided to use it right away in order to get a "Third Party Delusional Escapee from Esylum (3rd party survivor)" lynched? What is it that you think is really going on there?

I'm not being obtuse - you haven't provided any reasonable justification for continuing to focus on IB. Between the two of you, I'm much more suspicious of you right now.

[Metsfanmax]

The fact is, IB pretty much nailed HotShot's role

No. The only piece of information we got from IB on HS was that HS is anti-town. IB claimed after the scene that he knew HS was an escaped prisoner and could not say, but that doesn't count for much. Furthermore, we don't know that HS was against town's interests -- he said that he was a survivor and wanted to win with town. You all are just lapping up the "anti-town" business, which IB is being clever to frame it as, when in reality all that we know is that HS was "not town." So while it is correct that IB gave us the correct information that determined that HS was not town, that doesn't mean I am supportive of the lynch. In fact I made it clear already earlier in the day that I wasn't interested in lynching HS even if it was true that he was third party, so I don't give IB credit for much. Possibly him posting this information ended up hurting town in the long run, and if he is town and all he knew was what he has said he knows, then it was possibly quite reckless to post it as he did, knowing that it would almost certainly result in an HS lynch.

so I don't know what mechanic would provide him with that information

I already provided an example -- he had some N0 action that allowed him to target someone and learn something about them. That would be much more balanced, and rational, than him being town just straight up starting the game with information on one particular player out of however many are in the insane asylum.

As has been pointed out many times, town don't usually come attached with conditions on their victory other than the usual. So another possibility is that as a guard of the insane asylum he is also some kind of third party. His win condition might involve killing all the prisoners, while the win condition of the prisoners might be killing the guard(s). If you can't think of these possibilities and others like them, you're either just not trying very hard, or you're intentionally trying to confuse the conversation.

and make him want to get HotShot lynched, at the possible risk of being lynched himself

Oh come on. There was never a serious risk of IB getting lynched on D1. Did anyone other than Marashu even ever vote for IB?

[Iron Butterfly]

You are making a ton of assumptions about what the mods had in mind and how actions should and should not work.

[Metsfanmax]

The only thing I have suggested with confidence, that you would not start the game with information that guarantees a player would lose on D1, is a thought that occurred to pretty much everyone playing this game, so it's not just me. Furthermore I have admitted that it is not absolute confidence, which is why you are not yet my D2 lynch target. I also admit that there are potential scenarios where you did start the game with that information, but there are unknown mechanics at play that mean that HS hasn't actually lost yet. I'm not going to speculate on that too hard when I have already criticized Aladdin for doing so.

But if you think it's strange that I am suggesting this, just take yourself out of your position and consider how it looks objectively. Would you believe that HS got as raw of a deal as it seems he has, and that there's not something else going on?

[pancakemix]

Wasn't meaning to imply that there were only two possible lynches. That said, going with the HS is equally close-minded and by the looks of it, fairly fruitless.

This is WC Ginkapo's very first post in the game. He just casually brushes aside teh main topic of discussion (HS v IB) and proceeds to go after TWR and myslef in the name of hunting Mafia, even though it is D1 and proceeds to make very weak cases against each of us.

I know you'd argue it wasn't a 2-horse race, but that's entirely untrue. And trying to call him out for not holding that opinion is probably a poor way of thinking.

@Mets: Friendly reminder of the whole "bastard role" pm the mods sent out prior to the start of the game...

[Iron Butterfly]

The only thing I have suggested with confidence, that you would not start the game with information that guarantees a player would lose on D1, is a thought that occurred to pretty much everyone playing this game, so it's not just me. Furthermore I have admitted that it is not absolute confidence, which is why you are not yet my D2 lynch target. I also admit that there are potential scenarios where you did start the game with that information, but there are unknown mechanics at play that mean that HS hasn't actually lost yet. I'm not going to speculate on that too hard when I have already criticized Aladdin for doing so.

But if you think it's strange that I am suggesting this, just take yourself out of your position and consider how it looks objectively. Would you believe that HS got as raw of a deal as it seems he has, and that there's not something else going on?

If players are mafia they know I am not. They would have a vested interest in keeping the focus on someone other then their team day two.

Yes I do think HS got a bad role.Luck of the draw I say. It could also just as easily be attributed to such a large game and the mod being inexperienced, which is why my role was created. Pure speculation on my part. I felt bad considering HS and I worked with a handicap together last game lol.

I will agree that while I am blind in that the role was only between HS and I there could be a larger faction at work. / Dunwhich Horror game comes to mind where a large faction where the space aliens who were survivors. This is also "surprise"mafia.

[degaston]

The fact is, IB pretty much nailed HotShot's role

No. The only piece of information we got from IB on HS was that HS is anti-town. IB claimed after the scene that he knew HS was an escaped prisoner and could not say, but that doesn't count for much.

Does it count for anything that IB can apparently see into the future and claimed "Insane Asylum Guard" before HotShot was revealed to be a "Third Party Delusional Escapee from Esylum (3rd party survivor)"? Since you won't say exactly what you think happened, let me give it a try:

Near as I can tell, you're suggesting that IB was not given any information with his role, but had a N0 power to pick someone that he had to get lynched. He decided to use it on HotShot. (lucky for IB that he happened to pick someone without a good claim). He found out HotShot's role, and decided to claim to be an asylum guard so that it would look good when HotShot was lynched. Then he announced that HotShot was dangerous and needed to be lynched, but unvoted so that he was not part of the lynch?

And you think this is more logical and believable than something like: IB was some kind of third party guard who needed to get the escapee (HotShot) lynched in order to join the town?

Feel free to correct me if you disagree with what I put down for "your" opinion. But I think Occam's razor says that mine is more likely to be closer to the truth.

Furthermore, we don't know that HS was against town's interests -- he said that he was a survivor and wanted to win with town.

Yes, I'm sure that a "Delusional Escapee from Esylum" only has the town's best interests at heart. Are you going to give him the spare bedroom in your house?

so I don't know what mechanic would provide him with that information

I already provided an example -- he had some N0 action that allowed him to target someone and learn something about them. That would be much more balanced, and rational, than him being town just straight up starting the game with information on one particular player out of however many are in the insane asylum.

If your example is true, then either:

1. IB is the Asylum guard, and just happened to pick the escapee with his N0 action. - or -
2. IB is not the Asylum guard, but when he picked the asylum escapee, he decided to make up and claim the role of asylum guard.

And you think that either one of these situations is much more balanced and rational than what he is saying?

As has been pointed out many times, town don't usually come attached with conditions on their victory other than the usual.

Bastard game, remember?

So another possibility is that as a guard of the insane asylum he is also some kind of third party. His win condition might involve killing all the prisoners, while the win condition of the prisoners might be killing the guard(s). If you can't think of these possibilities and others like them, you're either just not trying very hard, or you're intentionally trying to confuse the conversation.

Are you now admitting that IB is the guard, and was probably given HotShot's information before the game started? Okay, If there's a guard, and an escapee, it seems reasonable to assume that there might be other prisoners that he is guarding. So what might happen if the guard is killed and those prisoners escape? Mabey asilum prisiners dont rite so well, hmmmm? So yeah, I can speculate too, but I don't see anything that translates to a "case" on IB right now.

and make him want to get HotShot lynched, at the possible risk of being lynched himself

Oh come on. There was never a serious risk of IB getting lynched on D1. Did anyone other than Marashu even ever vote for IB?

20/20 hindsight is great, ain't it?

[degaston]

FP'ed by IB

[AladdinSane]

Mabey asilum prisiners dont rite so well, hmmmm?

LOL. I see wear yer going with that, but to ekwate pour speling wid mentul ilness is a shaymefull prejoodice.

[Iron Butterfly]

By hammering, you ended D1 seven calendar days early. That's a lot of potential discussion time lost. Yes, people are still discussing, but those with night actions now have 48 hours to get their actions in, instead of nine days.

Good! Bring it on! But this is making me thimk maybe you hav a nite ackshun, no? You seem very conserned, whereas the TWELVE people who voted to linch HS apparently wernt wurried about ending teh day erly.

Why do you think players, who voted HS,where not bothered or worried the day would end early?

[AladdinSane]

Okay, hear is my SPEKULASHUN: Won ov teh asylum prizoners is a mad teecher who goes into a murderus rage when he sees pour speling. I hope their is a dock to pertect me if teh mad teecher gets out.

Hey! Teecher! Leave that ladd alone! Orl in orl you were just a brik in teh worl

[AladdinSane]

Why do you think players, who voted HS,where not bothered or worried the day would end early?

Becos they dident unvote.

[Metsfanmax]

Does it count for anything that IB can apparently see into the future and claimed "Insane Asylum Guard" before HotShot was revealed to be a "Third Party Delusional Escapee from Esylum (3rd party survivor)"?

Since you again seemingly engaged in the behavior of starting to respond to my post before actually reading all of it, as some of your post is quite redundant with scenarios I already presented, I'm not going to go through this line by line. I'll just say that this indicates there's a pretty good chance that IB is who he says he is. I never indicated that I think he made up that role in response to finding something out about HS on N0, nor do I think that's particularly likely. In my mind the debate was not about whether IB is telling the truth about the name of his role; the debate is about whether he has a night action or not, and whether he's town or not. I suggested two possibilities that were not mutually exclusive, namely that (1) IB has a night action that he used to gain information on HS, and (2) IB is third-party, not town. I am not commenting on the individual likelihood of any particular scenario except the one IB actually is presenting, which I think is bullshit.

So yeah, I can speculate too, but I don't see anything that translates to a "case" on IB right now.

Sure. Which is why I said that IB is not at the top of my lynch list, and which is why I'm not making a big deal out of the possible alternatives. What I said was that I think IB is not telling the full truth, and that we shouldn't just drop the discussion of him fully. Why do you continue to make this a big deal? I had no intention of turning this into a pages long argument, and it's strange that you seem to want to, given that you said we shouldn't let the IB thing drag on.

Anyway, I'm done with this argument, I've made my point and I'm not letting you or anyone else continue to shift the focus away from the higher-interest targets.

It could also just as easily be attributed to such a large game and the mod being inexperienced

You know who the mods of this game are right? How is that a plausible conjecture?