strike wolf wrote:You have a point. I wasn't really considering night actions. A lot of it depends on how strong he considers JOAT (Many consider it more mid-tier than high tier) or if they wanted to go after known quantities or unknown (Likely in this case, eliminating an SK would be higher priority)
I don't consider JOAT high-tier, there are other main roles I'd rather kill if I could -- but it's a pretty solid role to target, versus the chance of a complete unknown. Especially in this game when it was always going to be likely that weird things were going to happen. OK, so I'll concede that maybe someone else would have made a different choice from me -- but it's at least weak evidence that IB's not scum.
Though this does bring a thought, Would IB as mafia let End live? Night 1 sure. Let him be a potential mislynch tomorrow but N2? It was a bit clearer by the end of D2 that it was really too late in the game to expect End to be lynched by town and with him being a possible SK/gifter that made him a bigger target. I mean even as a believed Gifter, I can't see town lifting a finger to protect a third party.
I'm not sure. I think IB was pretty convinced End was the gifter, more so than most, and I think there's a good chance that scum IB would have killed End even if he's third party. But I'm not certain of it, there's a good case to be made that you focus on town rather than third party. So this is a wash for me.
strike wolf wrote:Of course even if they passed up the kill on me, why pass up the role block?
Yes, also a good point. I agree that again it's not proof of anything, but all of this at least weakly points in defense of IB, whereas we have nothing at all positive on HS and at least some reasons to be suspicious of him.
Is it a slam dunk? No. But also keep in mind that if HS is being truthful then we don't need him around anymore anyway, and with three confirmed town and only one kill left, we're not at MYLO. If we lynch HS and he flips town, then I'm probably going to be dead tonight, and we go into D5 with two confirmed town (ptlowe + PCM) and two uncertainties (IB + SW -- note that I'm assuming only one of them is scum). It will all come down then to whether PCM and ptlowe choose to lynch IB or SW, because the other one will certainly line up with them. Plus there'll be a gift to be used. So town chances are decent even if I'm wrong.