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strike wolf wrote:2. Dega-confirmed town D1. WAY too quiet today and his excuse for why being very flimsy. Possibly recruited.
degaston wrote:strike wolf wrote:2. Dega-confirmed town D1. WAY too quiet today and his excuse for why being very flimsy. Possibly recruited.
I guess you thought my excuse was flimsy on D1 when you voted to BT me. How did that turn out?
I've already given my opinion on who I think should be lynched, and I don't see any reason to change it.
But I'll give Ragian a chance to make up his mind, and see where that goes.
SoN!c wrote:If you wanna lynch me and lose the game go right ahead. Don't hold back. Just say lynch SoN!c and put it in big blue.
Votanic wrote:*If Sonic does turn out to be the Thing and gets away with it because nobody though it was worth BTing him, I will face-palm myself hard enough to give myself a concussion, therefore: BT Sonic
As for the vigilante, if there is a vigilante (and evidence suggests there is), he doesn't have particularly good aim, at least so far. That's totally understandable, but if town wants to be cautious about lynches it should also encourage the vigilante to not be reckless either. I wonder if he has a limited number of flame thrower uses? ...and I also wonder if he still would have that power if converted? A scary thought, but doubtful ...though in the movie (yes, that again) nothing stops the Thing from using human weapons.
degaston wrote:strike wolf wrote:2. Dega-confirmed town D1. WAY too quiet today and his excuse for why being very flimsy. Possibly recruited.
I guess you thought my excuse was flimsy on D1 when you voted to BT me. How did that turn out?
I've already given my opinion on who I think should be lynched, and I don't see any reason to change it.
But I'll give Ragian a chance to make up his mind, and see where that goes.
SoN!c wrote:98% sure Deg is not converted. I mean the converted one should be expected to take the heat for the recruiter on D2 and create doubt. To a certain level. Your not supposed to throw your own reputation away. Like Votanic did. He started strong on the chaos part but returned "normal" when Things went over the edge. So If Deg is recruited i eat my hat. Deg was silent all the way D2. And if he is recruited and im so wrong i won't return to any mafia game in the future. 98,98% sure
Maxleod wrote:Not strike, he's the only one with a functioning brain.
Votanic wrote:Well it is day 2 and things have gotten decidedly crotchety....either because we're trapped on a desolate Antarctic research base with an alien ikiller...or, because we've all read and reread too many shrill and suspicious forum posts. Either explanation is acceptable.
Currently, over half the players are on the hot seat to some degree or other, including myself.
What do I think... Still no smoking gun. Everybody has a hunch... based on something that triggers them in their reads.
My reads, still not final or complete in any way.
1. Pixar: Good townies die young... Still dead, alas...
2. Extreme: Talks a lot and all over the map. Comes off as fickle but then there is a lot to be fickle about. He gives lucid observations. An analyst similar to the strikean ideal, perhaps a bit more scattershot.
3. Traf: He's been on the defensive since day one, the original reason for his bandwagon that seems trite (Getting pissed about Sonic)... Still not for or against him, but I tried to go back and pick out the post that everyone said was an over-reaction and I can't even find it! It doesn't stand out at all by Day 2 standards. The lesson here is it doesn't take much to get a sticky bad reputation on Day 1 ...and that is something I am all too aware of and sympathetic with...
4. Dega: Also railroaded on Day 1 and then got vindicated... but being a previously cleared BT isn't great. The Thing might convert him with the hope that the town won't pick on Dega twice.
Admittedly t is kinda boring to BT the same guy again, but that doesn't mean it wouldn't be wise... He posts relatively little and isn't a huge finger-pointer. Day 1 and Day 2 quite similar. Could it be perceived as coasting. Sure, we already guessed that once and we were wrong ... and the Thing knows we guessed wrong. Who wants to taste the same glass of wine twice when there are so many louder, bolder, flamboyant, (dare I say, flavorful) vintages to try.
5. Ragian: Do I think Ragian's little lie is a scum-tell, not necessarily, because I agree that flavor isn't key, so why lie about it. Still, his flipping out about flavor-talk does come off as an over-reaction, at least equal to anything that Traf has been grilled for. He is town, at least today. Unfortunately, we seem to have gotten off on the wrong foot somehow. Hopefully we will play more games and he'll know that I always talk about flavor... of course, then he might really despise me.
6. Charle: He seems to get on any bandwagon that is convenient today an yesterday. That actually is suspicious, but maybe he is just laidback about playing mafia... He seems that way, but that might just be his avatar. He also has a (good?) RL excuse that he is busy working abroad. Again, he comes of as a reasonable townie, perhaps a bit too pliable or detached. The way things are going he seems unlikely to be the focus of suspicion, which of course is always suspicious.
7. Swang: He seems similar to Ragian, in that he is semi-quiet and then suddenly jumps out with his fingers a-pointing. he's dramatic about his scum-tells (not the only on) but that doesn't mean thy seem particularly substantiative. He doesn't post much either. I think of him mostly coming by to make short announcements. He should get an avatar, without one it makes it seem like he is trying to hide.
8. Sonic: His play style is triggering, at least to me. Other players seme to be more accustomed to it, but it still sticks out to me as something odd enough to investigate. Where to begin? As with Traf (and myself) I have some RL sympathy for Sonic being the nail that always sticks up. Afterall, if we were all perfectly behaved, there would be nothing to post about, right? However, in game, there are a limit to what is tolerable and Sonic has exceeded that on several occasions.
9. Strike: Another frequent scum-teller, like EW, Ragian, Swang, etc. It is necesssary gameplay, nothing necessarily wrong with it, but of course always being on the offensive is also a great defense.The voice of reason, by default (Ragian even says so). strike has played enough to always give a near-perfect town performance. So of course he could still do so even if he drew the scum straw. In a game without cops or detectives (as far as I know) what could stop a scummy strike?
10. Votan: I really don't like starting random scum-hunts, though I get that is a common technique. I really like to have something to hang my hat one. Not something I'm pretending to hang my hat on. This a mafia game, any of you might be lying. ..and at least in small ways, everybody does lie... I'm just gonna keep sifting for real evidence that pokes through the word salad. I feel quite uncertain, a vanilla townie who knows nothing. In the absence of compelling evidence, I can only try to point at behavior I deem scummy... or is it just annoying. Having now been on the receiving end of trumped-up charges, I know that all too well. If I'm expected to come up with a masterul theory that shows I'm 'really thinking about this', I guess I fail, but I can at least offer tons of healthy scepticism for everybody else's supposedly great ideas.
strike wolf wrote:degaston wrote:strike wolf wrote:2. Dega-confirmed town D1. WAY too quiet today and his excuse for why being very flimsy. Possibly recruited.
I guess you thought my excuse was flimsy on D1 when you voted to BT me. How did that turn out?
I've already given my opinion on who I think should be lynched, and I don't see any reason to change it.
But I'll give Ragian a chance to make up his mind, and see where that goes.
I BTed you in part because I wanted to talk more. I call you out on being quiet because I want you to talk more. If you're still town, I trust you to have valuable input. If you've been converted, I want to hear more from you to see what's shifted. If you don't talk then yes, I'm going to assume you may have been recruited until proven otherwise. If I offend, I apologize. I'm interested in your viewpoint whether your town or scum. I tend to agree with you that Son!c comes across as manipulative and I'd like to hear more takes like that.
strike wolf wrote:degaston wrote:strike wolf wrote:2. Dega-confirmed town D1. WAY too quiet today and his excuse for why being very flimsy. Possibly recruited.
I guess you thought my excuse was flimsy on D1 when you voted to BT me. How did that turn out?
I've already given my opinion on who I think should be lynched, and I don't see any reason to change it.
But I'll give Ragian a chance to make up his mind, and see where that goes.
I BTed you in part because I wanted to talk more. I call you out on being quiet because I want you to talk more. If you're still town, I trust you to have valuable input. If you've been converted, I want to hear more from you to see what's shifted. If you don't talk then yes, I'm going to assume you may have been recruited until proven otherwise. If I offend, I apologize. I'm interested in your viewpoint whether your town or scum. I tend to agree with you that Son!c comes across as manipulative and I'd like to hear more takes like that.SoN!c wrote:98% sure Deg is not converted. I mean the converted one should be expected to take the heat for the recruiter on D2 and create doubt. To a certain level. Your not supposed to throw your own reputation away. Like Votanic did. He started strong on the chaos part but returned "normal" when Things went over the edge. So If Deg is recruited i eat my hat. Deg was silent all the way D2. And if he is recruited and im so wrong i won't return to any mafia game in the future. 98,98% sure
Im not convinced hes recruited either but you should put less weight into what you consider the proper way to play as the recruit. I don't know how Dega acts as cult recruit and neither do you. Until then, behavior that seems off, whether it is how a recruit should act or not, should be noted.
So Son!c-Traf is mostly because of how hard they're going at each other. Son!c has been tunneled on Traf d1 and Traf has started really going after Son!c in return. Traf admits that he doesn't know who The recruiter is and thinks Son!c *might* be the recruit but he hasn't gone after others much at all even though he later acknowledged that town is likely screwed if we don't find the recruiter by EoD tomorrow. From what I have observed of him in Elementary and The Tick, I would have expected him to be a little too clever to get caught in a trap as scum of tunneling on an OMGus vote. Its even a pretty weak OMGus that was initially based on 1 single post that he claims shows a change in behavior. So the fact that he has sticks out to me.
Then on the Son!c side. He's been consistently against Traf but then he has attacks like this one:
Where he leaves out important context in an attack to make it look like Traf said something he didn't and when called out on it, there's no "oops you're right I misread." Or anything like that. He just shifts the line of attack. Honestly, if it was anyone but Son!c this would be a bigger red flag.
So you have two players both acting fairly scummy adamantly going at each other, it does read a bit like two scumbuddies trying to set the stage that they can't be aligned. You even get more meta as Son!c incidentally pointed out D1 that they sometimes play Risk games against each other and communicate on Whatsapp. Being more familiar with each other, that makes it more likely that one would recruit the other.
Now a few scenarios:
1. Traf is town-Son!c could have just misread or he could be the recruiter hard pressing a town. I don't think a recruiter Son!c would bank this much into the case but he could be counting on town to think that way or he could be the recruit feeling it's a worthwhile distraction from whoever is the real recruiter and doesn't care about the heat it draws to himself. In that case, Day 1 is regular Son!c suspicions and D2 is recruited Son!c trying to make a scene of it all.
2. Traf is recruiter-Then who did he recruit? Vot has defended him and might be a recruit. However, I dont think Traf is likely to recruit Vot over a more experienced player or one cleared like Dega. Degas absence could be in part because he was recruited and he's found it difficult to defend Traf. So he's elected to stay on the sidelines. Son!c could have been recruited and felt stuck attacking Traf because that was his D1 position. Most wouldn't go this hard into the attack on his recruiter but holding back also doesn't seem like his style of play.
3. Traf was recruited. This is more interesting because Traf was under some pressure D1 and for that, doesn't seem to be a great recruit choice. I don't think most players here would recruit him under those conditions. Maybe EW since I know EW respects Traf's playing ability and that might outweigh the negatives in his eyes but if EW was going that route, I would have expected him to have recruited me or Ragian based on similar logic but less heat on us. Unlikely Swang bur possible. It would be an interesting strat but I could see Son!c playing up how scummy Traf is and then getting him BTed/lynched D2 after recruiting him to gain himself brownie points. It would explain why Son!c has been on Traf D1 and Trafs attention to Son!c has turned more to suspicion D2.
Overall, I don't find Traf to be a likely recruit and I imagine a lynch on him would either reveal town or The Thing.
Son!c scenarios:
1. Son!c is town-then this is just how Son!c plays. He showed in D4 and 5 of The Tick that he is capable of making good scum reads and it's possible he made one on Traf.
2. Son!c is recruiter-it could also fit. He leans back into something akin to his Tick playstyle (which at the time he said was just him getting into character) and tries to take a lead role in the game to distract from his scummier behavior. He commits to trying to make himself seem willing to be BTed and Lynched, things the Thing should never want. Basically the ultimate bluff. Even more, he whines about how unbalanced the game is, makes a show of how he hopes DDS will make it more fair to town. More importantly, he tries to come up with a plan. a seemingly random plan that would at least make it seem like he's as likely to be on the chopping block as anyone else. It doesnt all quite fit perfectly which is why I lean Traf over Son!c but yeah. So who would Son!c recruit? Well again, Deg and Vot are on my short list of thoughts because of their behavior. Son!c could recruit Deg as the BTed target D1 knowing that he's likely safe from lynch for a while. He could recruit Vot because as no one would really expect him to recruit a newer player but that makes them more of a wild card and harder to tell when they're actually being scummy as opposed to just being new. Traf is possible too and I already listed why.
3. Son!c is the recruit-theres a few possible people who could recruit son!c. 1. Traf in an attempt to diffuse heat from himself that backfired. 2. EW who I do feel undersold Son!cs value as a recruit target. 3. Charle because he tends to be more in sync with Son!c than others. 4. Swang because he might want to avoid another late game situation like The Tick where suddenly me and Son!c were on the same page and aimed right at him. Son!c has been a bit more aggressive about going after Traf today but I think otherwise his behavior isn't that inconsistent with D1.
TrafalgarLaw01 wrote:Before a lynch happens. I want for real know what is Rag, Deg, Vot and Swang opinion on the Vote and Vig situation
Ragian wrote:strike wolf wrote:I do want to clarify that if Traf flips town and there's no vig kill on Son!c, it does mean that MacReady was likely the N1 recruit but does not necessarily mean that Son!c is the recruiter. BTing him and if it comes clean, he can tell us who he believes is the recruited MacReady is the better play. Otherwise, I think I'd be in favor of Bting Extreme.
I gotta say that I've been of the thought that Strike is so town that he reeks. Everything he says is well thought out and balanced. This, however, strikes *giggles* as too planned. It involves Traf, Son!c, whoever MacReady is, and Extreme. It closes the game if wrong - for instance if Strike is The Thing - but if e.g. MacReady is (already) recruited just that would f*ck things up. It is not unthinkable that Strike is The Thing because he is damn good at this game. I'm just saying that this is dangerous and the might be the first time where I start to suspect Strike.
Votanic wrote:My 'threat' (so to speak) to 'face-palm' myself was and still is a reaction to the town majority not taking Sonic's scuminess seriously, or even bothering to BT to find out if he is town or not. It isn't about me personally looking foolish. After all, I was among those that did vote for him on Day 1*. I still stand by this unapologetically.
Votanic wrote:Sure, why not, at this point I'm all for finding out if Ragian is The Thing... or just a flavor-hating grouch.
Unvote
BT Ragian
Ragian wrote:TrafalgarLaw01 wrote:Before a lynch happens. I want for real know what is Rag, Deg, Vot and Swang opinion on the Vote and Vig situation
Alright, here:Ragian wrote:strike wolf wrote:I do want to clarify that if Traf flips town and there's no vig kill on Son!c, it does mean that MacReady was likely the N1 recruit but does not necessarily mean that Son!c is the recruiter. BTing him and if it comes clean, he can tell us who he believes is the recruited MacReady is the better play. Otherwise, I think I'd be in favor of Bting Extreme.
I gotta say that I've been of the thought that Strike is so town that he reeks. Everything he says is well thought out and balanced. This, however, strikes *giggles* as too planned. It involves Traf, Son!c, whoever MacReady is, and Extreme. It closes the game if wrong - for instance if Strike is The Thing - but if e.g. MacReady is (already) recruited just that would f*ck things up. It is not unthinkable that Strike is The Thing because he is damn good at this game. I'm just saying that this is dangerous and the might be the first time where I start to suspect Strike.
I don't think Strike even acknowledged my doubts.
---Votanic wrote:My 'threat' (so to speak) to 'face-palm' myself was and still is a reaction to the town majority not taking Sonic's scuminess seriously, or even bothering to BT to find out if he is town or not. It isn't about me personally looking foolish. After all, I was among those that did vote for him on Day 1*. I still stand by this unapologetically.Votanic wrote:Sure, why not, at this point I'm all for finding out if Ragian is The Thing... or just a flavor-hating grouch.
Unvote
BT Ragian
Pot, kettle, black...and so on...
---
I need to check something... Did anyone flare up on purpose in the beginning of our game?
Maxleod wrote:Not strike, he's the only one with a functioning brain.
TrafalgarLaw01 wrote:I was letting time to analyse people comments on BT. I was thinking if I were the thing what would I do stay quiet and try to not be the tested one or try to be active and get someone else BT rather quickly.
It it were me I would have probably stay quiet but I feel most people in here would actually try to comment quickly on it to get a BT going asap so they dont get BT'ed D1.
There is not so much to read right now so its mostly a shot in the dark So I think I would BT EW or Votanic or maybe Strike cause I think he would played it similar to how I would so not draw to much attention.
TrafalgarLaw01 wrote:I feel a BT on Pix is just to easy, would rather BT someone else
TrafalgarLaw01 wrote:Ragian wrote:A couple of people are suggesting Extreme. I've only seen him in two games. Well, one really... Why EW, @Traf?
To be honest, not real reason. I've got clue to suspect anyone at this point. He is a very smart player, same as Deg and Strike thats why I made my list out of them
TrafalgarLaw01 wrote:SoN!c wrote:Anyways these are the current standings if im not mistaken:
Blood Vote:
(1) Pixar - Swang
(2) Traf - Sonic, Charle
(2) Charle - EW, Pixar
(2) Dega - Ragian, Strike
No vote: Votanic, Deg, Traf (funny thing is these 3 are also my 3 suspects, Votanic for pressing a random vote). And The Thing not voting early to not draw attention is exactly what i would have done if i was The Thing.
You said something interesting here. I think The thing wpuld not be the first to vote, so That almost rule out Swang, also maybe not the second one so not you. However waiting till to late could also draw attention as it has. I'm BTing Dega cause the reasons said above. But if the thing would want to blend in I think Chalre, Pixar, Ragian and Strike all make a good case.
TrafalgarLaw01 wrote:SoN!c wrote:Well, thanks Traf. Finally you posted something from your heart. And i believe you on this.
If i say something "certain" it is to have a bigger rub / scratch effect. But knowing there is another possibility..there are always lots of other possibilities.
Still i always explained why. And i liked the theory on you. Posting theories is half the fun, and it gets something going.
Admitedly it did get something going this time.
SoN!c wrote:If Traf is The Thing this is his recruit list, Votanic is on there. Why is that? Is Votanic a mafia expert like EW or Strike?TrafalgarLaw01 wrote:I feel a BT on Pix is just to easy, would rather BT someone else
His famous "lets BT somebody else" without knowing who 'somebody else' should be. So what is he saying here? "would rather test somebody else" What does that mean? Think on it. It's a strategy. Traf is always calculated and here he is saying let's take a random guess but let's not take the random guess on Pixar..???
[...] Where he leaves out important context in an attack to make it look like Traf said something he didn't and when called out on it, there's no "oops you're right I misread." Or anything like that. He just shifts the line of attack. Honestly, if it was anyone but Son!c this would be a bigger red flag.
SoN!c wrote:I posted why at least 4 times. But i have a strong feeling you have only read 20% of all posts at most.
Do you? Im pretty sure you did not read everything Deg. Like half an eye on a good day.
SoN!c wrote:degaston wrote:Also, you seem to be pulling a lot of numbers out of your ass. What makes Traf 18%? What is your case on him at all?
You seem to forget your on 5 votes and i could hammer you any moment id liked for the past 48 hours deg. And that would influence traf too..
degaston wrote:You said it's either Traf or me, but I was at BT-1, and you wouldn't switch your vote to me, even though your vote on Traf was going nowhere. Maybe you just didn't want to be blamed for a bad BT on me? You never did respond to my question about what your case on Traf was.
Again, completely non-responsive.SoN!c wrote:All i know is The Thing is laughing very hard atm.
Deg you missed quite a lot in your absense. You should have been here with the rest of town. You could have posted / discussed your idea's back then.. Now it's just more of the same circles and topics we already debated. You got BT for a good reason. If you were here that would not have happened we would not have wasted a BT on you.
SoN!c wrote:Well we agree we disagree.
Its pretty obvious to me but im not gonna say "it's traf" for the 70th time..
degaston wrote:SoN!c wrote:Well we agree we disagree.
Its pretty obvious to me but im not gonna say "it's traf" for the 70th time..
Saying "It's Traf" over and over isn't helping.
WHY is it Traf?
SoN!c wrote:degaston wrote:SoN!c wrote:Well we agree we disagree.
Its pretty obvious to me but im not gonna say "it's traf" for the 70th time..
Saying "It's Traf" over and over isn't helping.
WHY is it Traf?
Slapstick..just lynch me please. So you can see im Fucks, vanilla scientist and im outta this Legal Torture.
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