[Official] NBC Mafia Town Win MVP=trinicardinal

[strike wolf]

FOS strike

or, just everyone vote him and I'll be the stupid hammer!! I'm so tired of talking about this!

Care to explain the change of heart?

Ebwop: I need to slow down a bit and think. I'm guessing by him you meant rodion. It was just unclear from the structure of the post.

[chapcrap]

FOS strike

or, just everyone vote him and I'll be the stupid hammer!! I'm so tired of talking about this!

Care to explain the change of heart?

Ebwop: I need to slow down a bit and think. I'm guessing by him you meant rodion. It was just unclear from the structure of the post.

Yes, I meant Rodion when I said him.

I am nominating strike for the hammer, but still on Rodion's case. And still willing to be the hammer.

[safariguy5]

Vote Count

Rodion (4)- strike, chap, jonty, Mob
strike(1)- Rodion


With 14 alive, it takes 8 to lynch.

I cannot complain about the activity here, keep it up.

[betiko]

FOS strike

or, just everyone vote him and I'll be the stupid hammer!! I'm so tired of talking about this!

Care to explain the change of heart?

Ebwop: I need to slow down a bit and think. I'm guessing by him you meant rodion. It was just unclear from the structure of the post.

Yes, I meant Rodion when I said him.

I am nominating strike for the hammer, but still on Rodion's case. And still willing to be the hammer.

I guess you give 0% credit to rodion being a bomb and that anyone would do, you just want to see him lynched?
This is a really complicated configuration... I m tired as well and want to see an outcome. as much as I am not convinced of Rodion being the bomb, I'm also not convinced it's not a fakeclaim either. he's at l-4 now; and I don't see how this is not going to end up either with rodion hammered, or rodion self hammered.
so to help the game progress I'll put him back at l-3. I will wait to see who I fos (fos count by jimfinn please?)

vote rodion

[MoB Deadly]

I think this is right.

FoS Count

Betiko (1): Leitz
chapcrap (1): MoB Deadly
Rodion (1): Strike Wolf
Strike Wolf (2): Rodion, chapcrap

[Epitaph1]

Oy veh. This is a tough call. Even though it would be in effect a 2nd lynch of Rodion is telling the truth, I'm not inclined to potentially reveal another power role in case he is not. We're in a acceptable situation with only having the doctor and cop revealed such that the threat of a watcher will prevent the mafia from going after jim or swifte.

Whether we go with a volunteer to drop the hammer or force someone through our ad hoc FOS system, my vote would be the same.

vote Rodion
FOS Chap

[dazza2008]

FoS stike wolf

[jimfinn]

In light of the way he's been tensing up lately, I'm going to FoS strike too.


FoS Count

Betiko (1): Leitz
chapcrap (2): MoB Deadly, Epitaph
Rodion (1): Strike Wolf
Strike Wolf (4): Rodion, chapcrap, dazza2008, jimfinn

[MoB Deadly]

Strike Wolf (4): Rodion, chapcrap, dazza2008, jimfinn

What is the reasoning for this? Do you think he is scummy? Do we really want another claim out in the open? (Because obviously he would have to claim and we would decide if we believe him and still want him to hammer or not)

[MeDeFe]

After Rodion misconstrued SW's points beyond all recognition his claim of being a bomb is starting to look more and more fake to me. To make things worse he started bringing up possibilities that aren't just unlikely, but for which we have indications to the contrary. A mafia roleblocker? And you think they wouldn't have used that on either the doc or the cop on night 1 and killed the other? Instead they went for a safe kill on some random townie. The cop said his investigation was not blocked, of course, investigating yourself is something of a waste of a night, but that's tangential. The doc also has given no indication that he was blocked as far as I recall.

Same thing with the "beloved princess" before. I realize you didn't say there might be one, but by bringing up the possibility you raise the "confusement factor" on the town side, skipping a day phase can only be balanced if everyone has some kind of night action. We already know this isn't a NV-game.

And Rodion, seriously, you compare town to a chicken with its head cut off? You come in here and say that only you know what's going on and only you can hunt for scum efficiently, the rest of us just run around randomly? Even putting aside any indignation I may feel, that's not an argument for us to go along with your plans. On the contrary. Your attempt to portray yourself as an authority to be trusted, rather than to provide a coherent argument makes you look scummy to me.



Besides, I have thought things over, and come to the conclusion that the basis of your argument is flawed. If you're telling the truth, lynching you means there are two deaths in a day, it does not mean there are two lynches, though. We lynch you and a second person dies, but we have no means of acting on the information we get by lynching you. There is no second vote pattern to analyse, there is nothing. All we get is a second death. Even going by your estimates there is a 35-45% chance of a scum getting pressured into lynching you, lets say 40% for short (though it would probably be a bit lower on account of the scum also influencing who should be the sacrificial hammer). If you're not lying and really are a bomb, that means there's a 60% or higher chance of ending up with two dead townies. I don't find those odds acceptable

But it doesn't end there, if we pressure someone and they claim and are believed, what then? Progress to the next person? We might as well all agree to massclaim today. The scum will most probably have been given fakeclaims, so the net benefit for town would be somewhere around nil. Then supporting powerroles start getting killed off until the doc and/or cop can be safely targeted by the scum, that shouldn't take more than 2 nights. Another mislynch in between is not unlikely, and by that point we're pretty much screwed.

If you really are town the best thing you can do to help us out is to hammer yourself. Failing that start a proper search for someone you consider scummy and stop this inane "two lynches" business. You haven't properly responded to any criticism leveled at your plan so far, iirc you said some people (me included) had raised some interesting points, but I was unable to find any serious reply after that. In my opinion your credibility is pretty much shot after your behaviour.

[Rodion]

A mafia roleblocker? And you think they wouldn't have used that on either the doc or the cop on night 1 and killed the other?

Cop did not claim until D2 and we have no evidence the doctor was not in fact blocked.

Didn't even read the rest of your post yet, just wanted to adress this before it snowballs.

[MoB Deadly]

After Rodion misconstrued SW's points beyond all recognition his claim of being a bomb is starting to look more and more fake to me. To make things worse he started bringing up possibilities that aren't just unlikely, but for which we have indications to the contrary. A mafia roleblocker? And you think they wouldn't have used that on either the doc or the cop on night 1 and killed the other? Instead they went for a safe kill on some random townie. The cop said his investigation was not blocked, of course, investigating yourself is something of a waste of a night, but that's tangential. The doc also has given no indication that he was blocked as far as I recall.

Same thing with the "beloved princess" before. I realize you didn't say there might be one, but by bringing up the possibility you raise the "confusement factor" on the town side, skipping a day phase can only be balanced if everyone has some kind of night action. We already know this isn't a NV-game.

And Rodion, seriously, you compare town to a chicken with its head cut off? You come in here and say that only you know what's going on and only you can hunt for scum efficiently, the rest of us just run around randomly? Even putting aside any indignation I may feel, that's not an argument for us to go along with your plans. On the contrary. Your attempt to portray yourself as an authority to be trusted, rather than to provide a coherent argument makes you look scummy to me.



Besides, I have thought things over, and come to the conclusion that the basis of your argument is flawed. If you're telling the truth, lynching you means there are two deaths in a day, it does not mean there are two lynches, though. We lynch you and a second person dies, but we have no means of acting on the information we get by lynching you. There is no second vote pattern to analyse, there is nothing. All we get is a second death. Even going by your estimates there is a 35-45% chance of a scum getting pressured into lynching you, lets say 40% for short (though it would probably be a bit lower on account of the scum also influencing who should be the sacrificial hammer). If you're not lying and really are a bomb, that means there's a 60% or higher chance of ending up with two dead townies. I don't find those odds acceptable

But it doesn't end there, if we pressure someone and they claim and are believed, what then? Progress to the next person? We might as well all agree to massclaim today. The scum will most probably have been given fakeclaims, so the net benefit for town would be somewhere around nil. Then supporting powerroles start getting killed off until the doc and/or cop can be safely targeted by the scum, that shouldn't take more than 2 nights. Another mislynch in between is not unlikely, and by that point we're pretty much screwed.

If you really are town the best thing you can do to help us out is to hammer yourself. Failing that start a proper search for someone you consider scummy and stop this inane "two lynches" business. You haven't properly responded to any criticism leveled at your plan so far, iirc you said some people (me included) had raised some interesting points, but I was unable to find any serious reply after that. In my opinion your credibility is pretty much shot after your behaviour.

[Rodion]

You are either ignoring situational thinking or are oblivious to it. ALL OF THIS is based on the UNLIKELIHOOD that you are telling the truth.

Thanks for clearing it up.

Than what happens tonight if we have an extra townie dead and the same scenario? No we aren't subject to night actions but they do provide better information. Even in Memebase when we had three lynches in one day, we at least had the result of the lynches in between them (Not to mention a counterclaim that makes the situation much clearer) and it was still suggested that we did not have to use all three lynches.

Just use your situational thinking to conclude that I'll flip a town bomb and the the 2nd vote (the FOS one) is being made with that flip in mind.

Are you telling me that you are not at all worried about the number of claims on the table?

Or 4, or 5, or 6...

I'm more worried about losing the game because I died and town is like a chicken with its head cut off, so I need to milk this day until I can get one scum killed.

So now you're appealing to the fact that you're experienced and telling town that we'll be in bad shape if we lynch you. Weak.

It isn't weak because I did not say that in order to make you give up on lynching me. I said that because you asked me what worried me and that is what worries me. It is what it is. An honest answer to a possibly loaded question.

[Rodion]

And Rodion, seriously, you compare town to a chicken with its head cut off? You come in here and say that only you know what's going on and only you can hunt for scum efficiently, the rest of us just run around randomly?

Ironically, you're among those I perceive to have the better scum-hunting skills in this game. Yet you still threw mud at a townie by saying he is raising unlikely suspicions on a roleblocker that probably didn't exist and backed your words with the fact that an UNCLAIMED COP was not killed or blocked.

Pardon me, but you have just strengthened my doubts in the ability of town to win the game after my death.

Besides, I have thought things over, and come to the conclusion that the basis of your argument is flawed. If you're telling the truth, lynching you means there are two deaths in a day, it does not mean there are two lynches, though. We lynch you and a second person dies, but we have no means of acting on the information we get by lynching you. There is no second vote pattern to analyse, there is nothing. All we get is a second death.

This is why Jimfinn is organizing a FOS vote-count. We do get to pick who dies the 2nd death. We do have vote patterns to help our power roles act on N2 and everyone else to play on D3.

Even going by your estimates there is a 35-45% chance of a scum getting pressured into lynching you, lets say 40% for short (though it would probably be a bit lower on account of the scum also influencing who should be the sacrificial hammer). If you're not lying and really are a bomb, that means there's a 60% or higher chance of ending up with two dead townies. I don't find those odds acceptable

100% chance lose 1 town
against
a 60% chance lose 2 towns, 40% chance lose 1 town-1mafia.

Also, you can't have it both ways. If you're going with the "scum will influence a mishammer", you'll have to admit we're getting vote patterns to analyse in the future.

But it doesn't end there, if we pressure someone and they claim and are believed, what then? Progress to the next person? We might as well all agree to massclaim today. The scum will most probably have been given fakeclaims, so the net benefit for town would be somewhere around nil. Then supporting powerroles start getting killed off until the doc and/or cop can be safely targeted by the scum, that shouldn't take more than 2 nights. Another mislynch in between is not unlikely, and by that point we're pretty much screwed.

Again, you're being misleading. You're considering a worst case scenario, the scenario in which town is incompetent enough to force the wrong people to claim (or to believe their fakeclaims). If you're actually going to assume the worst case scenario, then we might as well give up on the game right now and congratulate mafia on a perfect performance.

If you really are town the best thing you can do to help us out is to hammer yourself. Failing that start a proper search for someone you consider scummy and stop this inane "two lynches" business. You haven't properly responded to any criticism leveled at your plan so far, iirc you said some people (me included) had raised some interesting points, but I was unable to find any serious reply after that. In my opinion your credibility is pretty much shot after your behaviour.

I'm not sure what you're talking about me not responding to the criticism of my plan, but I'm willing to answer whatever you'd like to know. Just state the question or the quote I missed and I'll get down to it.

You had raised an interesting point of letting me live and pursuing another lead (not the point of forcing me to self-hammer). I'm still not sure whether this would be good and I'm not sure whether it would be viable either (from the top of my mind, only Swifte, Shield and you - perhaps Betiko? - suggested that as a viable alternative).

[dazza2008]

Strike Wolf (4): Rodion, chapcrap, dazza2008, jimfinn

What is the reasoning for this? Do you think he is scummy? Do we really want another claim out in the open? (Because obviously he would have to claim and we would decide if we believe him and still want him to hammer or not)

This is going to go on forever. Lets just get him to L-1 and someone hammer. I will because I am pretty convinced he is scum.

[MoB Deadly]

Strike Wolf (4): Rodion, chapcrap, dazza2008, jimfinn

What is the reasoning for this? Do you think he is scummy? Do we really want another claim out in the open? (Because obviously he would have to claim and we would decide if we believe him and still want him to hammer or not)

This is going to go on forever. Lets just get him to L-1 and someone hammer. I will because I am pretty convinced he is scum.

So you are willing to risk losing Strike to a bomb, just because this is "taking forever"? Which Strike already said there's a 0 percent chance that he is going to cast the hammer, he's obviously going to avoid it, making everything take longer anyway.

If you thought Strike was scummy and wanted him to hammer thats fine, but I find it very scummy that you want Strike to cast it because things are taking too long. I am not sure what your motive here is

Real FOS on Dazza (not to hammer yet I want to hear him respond)

[dazza2008]

Strike Wolf (4): Rodion, chapcrap, dazza2008, jimfinn

What is the reasoning for this? Do you think he is scummy? Do we really want another claim out in the open? (Because obviously he would have to claim and we would decide if we believe him and still want him to hammer or not)

This is going to go on forever. Lets just get him to L-1 and someone hammer. I will because I am pretty convinced he is scum.

So you are willing to risk losing Strike to a bomb, just because this is "taking forever"? Which Strike already said there's a 0 percent chance that he is going to cast the hammer, he's obviously going to avoid it, making everything take longer anyway.

If you thought Strike was scummy and wanted him to hammer thats fine, but I find it very scummy that you want Strike to cast it because things are taking too long. I am not sure what your motive here is

Real FOS on Dazza (not to hammer yet I want to hear him respond)

I already said mate. I am convinced he is scum. I don't care who hammers. Get him to L-1 and I will do it or Chap.

You want us to FOS those we want to hammer then when I do you worry about another claim. The only way not to get another claim is just to do it. So why f*ck around for weeks? Lets just get it done.

[MoB Deadly]

I already said mate. I am convinced he is scum. I don't care who hammers. Get him to L-1 and I will do it or Chap.

You want us to FOS those we want to hammer then when I do you worry about another claim. The only way not to get another claim is just to do it. So why f*ck around for weeks? Lets just get it done.

You are being contradicting. If you want a volunteer to do it then FOS yourself or Chap. I am just asking for clarification why you want Strike to hammer.

The way you phrase it it's almost like you want rodion to be at L-1 just to cast the hammer, ignoring the FoS's.

[betiko]

I already said mate. I am convinced he is scum. I don't care who hammers. Get him to L-1 and I will do it or Chap.

You want us to FOS those we want to hammer then when I do you worry about another claim. The only way not to get another claim is just to do it. So why f*ck around for weeks? Lets just get it done.

You are being contradicting. If you want a volunteer to do it then FOS yourself or Chap. I am just asking for clarification why you want Strike to hammer.

The way you phrase it it's almost like you want rodion to be at L-1 just to cast the hammer, ignoring the FoS's.

it's quite simple in my understanding; dazza and chap give 0% credit that rodion could be bomb. they just want him at l-1 to hammer; as they are sure it's a fakeclaim. I don't think it's scummy, I think it's not wise. scums wouldn t be fighting to hammer him and get killed. on the other hand; this whole case has to be solved on gut feelings I think because some are quite certain, some are not and whatever arguments anyone is bringing, they turn into wifom.
I still think that the FOS thing is the best solution. maybe with swifte or jimfinn putting rodion at -1. But now it almost looks like a competition between chap and dazza on who will have the fastest hammering balls.

[dazza2008]

I already said mate. I am convinced he is scum. I don't care who hammers. Get him to L-1 and I will do it or Chap.

You want us to FOS those we want to hammer then when I do you worry about another claim. The only way not to get another claim is just to do it. So why f*ck around for weeks? Lets just get it done.

You are being contradicting. If you want a volunteer to do it then FOS yourself or Chap. I am just asking for clarification why you want Strike to hammer.

The way you phrase it it's almost like you want rodion to be at L-1 just to cast the hammer, ignoring the FoS's.

it's quite simple in my understanding; dazza and chap give 0% credit that rodion could be bomb. they just want him at l-1 to hammer; as they are sure it's a fakeclaim. I don't think it's scummy, I think it's not wise. scums wouldn t be fighting to hammer him and get killed. on the other hand; this whole case has to be solved on gut feelings I think because some are quite certain, some are not and whatever arguments anyone is bringing, they turn into wifom.
I still think that the FOS thing is the best solution. maybe with swifte or jimfinn putting rodion at -1. But now it almost looks like a competition between chap and dazza on who will have the fastest hammering balls.

I think the FOS thing is not what everyone wants. Too many players are worried that more claims will be bad and I agree. Where do we stop? Once every player in the game has claimed then have a guess at the fake claim and force him to hammer?

I don't think more claims today will do us any favours. I just think we should get on with it.

[jimfinn]

The cop said his investigation was not blocked, of course, investigating yourself is something of a waste of a night, but that's tangential.

I investigated the claimed doc, not myself.

And Rodion is actually right about us getting two lynches; that's the whole point of FoS thing. If Rodion is scum, we get one lynch, but we're guaranteed to lynch scum. If Rodion is actually town bomb, we have two lynches, his lynch, and our lynch of the person we force to hammer. It's the best thing we have.

[MeDeFe]

A mafia roleblocker? And you think they wouldn't have used that on either the doc or the cop on night 1 and killed the other?

Cop did not claim until D2 and we have no evidence the doctor was not in fact blocked.

Didn't even read the rest of your post yet, just wanted to adress this before it snowballs.

You are mostly correct here, I wrote my post at uni and had my notes for the game at home, my mistake. However, the fact that the doc did not speak up immediately on day 2 and say he was blocked speaks against the mafia roleblocker possibility you raised. People are usually told if they're blocked, though I am aware that it's not always the case.

This is why Jimfinn is organizing a FOS vote-count. We do get to pick who dies the 2nd death. We do have vote patterns to help our power roles act on N2 and everyone else to play on D3.

Again, you're being misleading. You're considering a worst case scenario, the scenario in which town is incompetent enough to force the wrong people to claim (or to believe their fakeclaims). If you're actually going to assume the worst case scenario, then we might as well give up on the game right now and congratulate mafia on a perfect performance.

And if the person claims a powerrole and refuses to hammer? Or even claims VT and refuses to hammer? You're saying I'm being misleading and only considering the worst case scenario. You're wrong. What I'm describing is actually the most likely scenario. The least likely scenario is that we FOS a scum into fakeclaiming, see through it and force them to hammer you under threat of lynch. If that's not dependent on contingencies I don't know what is. The patterns we get are also only marginally useful, consider how many people are refusing to participate in it at this point. 7 people have cast a FOS on someone by the latest count, one of them is SW who has expressed his dislike of your idea. You want to get useful patterns out of that sample size?

Your worst-case scenarios on the other hand have been based on mafia powerroles, lynchers, jesters and raising the specter of a beloved princess. What you're doing at the moment and have been doing throughout the game is sowing confusion among the town.

100% chance lose 1 town
against
a 60% chance lose 2 towns, 40% chance lose 1 town-1mafia.

against
a 60% chance lose 1 town, 40% chance lose 1 mafia.

Second (realistic) choice by a rapidly narrowing margin is a volunteer hammering you if you absolutely refuse to cooperate and lynch yourself (which you have indicated), it's better than this whole FOS-business.

Swifte, Shield, me and "perhaps betiko" saying we might simply keep you alive is still nearly a third of the playerbase at this point. "Only" is not exactly called for in those circumstances. This is also the big point you have not responded to. A viable alternative is presented, you say it's interesting, and subsequently ignore it completely. Given the circumstances I'm not certain whether that can be called a scumtell or not, it's like you're hell-bent on getting lynched whether it benefits town or not, a highly unusual behaviour for a townie, but even more so for a scum.

[MeDeFe]

The cop said his investigation was not blocked, of course, investigating yourself is something of a waste of a night, but that's tangential.

I investigated the claimed doc, not myself.

And Rodion is actually right about us getting two lynches; that's the whole point of FoS thing. If Rodion is scum, we get one lynch, but we're guaranteed to lynch scum. If Rodion is actually town bomb, we have two lynches, his lynch, and our lynch of the person we force to hammer. It's the best thing we have.

Looking at my notes, yes, that's what they say, too.

I think I'll make a backup copy of them.

[betiko]

The cop said his investigation was not blocked, of course, investigating yourself is something of a waste of a night, but that's tangential.

I investigated the claimed doc, not myself.

And Rodion is actually right about us getting two lynches; that's the whole point of FoS thing. If Rodion is scum, we get one lynch, but we're guaranteed to lynch scum. If Rodion is actually town bomb, we have two lynches, his lynch, and our lynch of the person we force to hammer. It's the best thing we have.

Looking at my notes, yes, that's what they say, too.

I think I'll make a backup copy of them.

that's the problem with playing too many mafia games at the same time!!
I'm only on this one and it was during the whole period of time in which you were not too active.

On my side; i give 40% chances that the bomb is a fakeclaim (arbitrary). let's assume as well we have 40% chances to FOS a scum hammer.
therefore;
rodion hammers himself: 60% chances to lose 1 town, but clears him as he is the number one suspect for a few people here

hammered:
rodion town bomb is hammered by a scum: 24% chances (1-1)
rodion town bomb is hammered by a town: 36% chances (0-2)
rodion scum/neutral is hammered by a scum or town (added 16+24): 40% chances (1-0)

that gives town 64% chances to take a town usefull decision by lynching him, wether he's town or scum based on the suspicion level i have on him, 60/40. It's all about the corect person who will take the hammer.

If you guys didn't notice, the 2 main characters of the movie are not out there and we must be careful with what we are doing. and making a double town kill has 36% chances to happen in my opinion. It is extremely complicated to take a right decision.

if we have a scum that fakeclaims something important and refuses to lynch, with no one counterclaiming what do we do? same thing as if it's a real power role; move to the next target?

i feel like any decision we take is bad and will have to beat the odds.. basicaly we are in a solution in which we have to gamble.

[Rodion]

You are mostly correct here, I wrote my post at uni and had my notes for the game at home, my mistake. However, the fact that the doc did not speak up immediately on day 2 and say he was blocked speaks against the mafia roleblocker possibility you raised. People are usually told if they're blocked, though I am aware that it's not always the case.

That depends on the game. They are mandatorily informed when they are expected to get reports of their actions (cop, tracker, watcher), but other roles might not be told. Considering the existence of vanillas (2 dead, some softclaimed), mafia probably has only 1 or 2 power roles, but roleblocker is as viable as any other pick.

And if the person claims a powerrole and refuses to hammer?

Dude, it's not the first time I've went through this, come on!

Either town believes the power role and moves on or town does not believe and lynches the person that refused to hammer (we can only get a bomb hammered by scum if we present a solid threat).

Or even claims VT and refuses to hammer?

Lynch him no questions asked. There's no good reason for an elected and claimed VT not to hammer.

You're saying I'm being misleading and only considering the worst case scenario. You're wrong. What I'm describing is actually the most likely scenario. The least likely scenario is that we FOS a scum into fakeclaiming, see through it and force them to hammer you under threat of lynch. If that's not dependent on contingencies I don't know what is. The patterns we get are also only marginally useful, consider how many people are refusing to participate in it at this point. 7 people have cast a FOS on someone by the latest count, one of them is SW who has expressed his dislike of your idea. You want to get useful patterns out of that sample size?

Briefly disregarding 3rd-parties if you allow me, by definition, a mafia game only lasts until town holds the majority. With mafia being the minority, every lynch that is not originated by a cop report/counterclaim/person-caught-lying is going to be unlikely (below 50%) to get scum. We still lynch anyway, don't we?

Why?

Because the benefit of getting 1 mafia is bigger than the harm of losing 1 town. (I feel like I've already explained this, perhaps in Terminator?) This benefit-harm discrepancy is what allows town to constantly risk lynches that are only 30-40% accurate, much like you'd be willing to bet on something that gives you 30-40% odds if the reward is 4 times bigger than what you bet.

Your worst-case scenarios on the other hand have been based on mafia powerroles, lynchers, jesters and raising the specter of a beloved princess. What you're doing at the moment and have been doing throughout the game is sowing confusion among the town.

Refusing to get lynches/explosions is statistically suboptimal for town as you're forfeiting a town-induced lynch and giving mafia more room for NKs.

I've said this multiple times. Jimfinn, one of 2 players that are as confirmed as it gets, understood it and is following it. Why can't you?

a 60% chance lose 1 town, 40% chance lose 1 mafia.

Good odds. Explanation above.

Swifte, Shield, me and "perhaps betiko" saying we might simply keep you alive is still nearly a third of the playerbase at this point. "Only" is not exactly called for in those circumstances.

I beg to differ. With 8 people required to lynch in a 14-player game, it takes 7 people stating they'd rather not lynch me to make it a viable option. 4 (or even 5, if I support the plan) is not enough, especially if you consider you're apparently changing your mind and Betiko has voted me lately.

This is also the big point you have not responded to. A viable alternative is presented, you say it's interesting, and subsequently ignore it completely. Given the circumstances I'm not certain whether that can be called a scumtell or not, it's like you're hell-bent on getting lynched whether it benefits town or not, a highly unusual behaviour for a townie, but even more so for a scum.

Mind you, I've actually put a lot of thought into that.

First, the possibility of a mafia roleblocker could get Jimfinn blocked (or killed) and force us to start D3 with no report on me.

If we are lucky enough not to have a roleblocker in the game, it all boils down to whether mafia has a framer or not (I don't believe mafia would have a busdriver as that is too powerful in mafia's hand): if they do, we're wasting Jim's N2 to get me D3 mislynched and explode another townie in the process; if they don't, I'm basically guaranteed to live until endgame (unless the godfather is willing to forfeit a 1-shot bulletproof - that maybe he doesn't even have - in order to get rid of me) and town's actions become more accurate throughout the game. With all the uncertainty regarding mafia powe roles, if I were to suggest the possibility of not lynching me today, a reasonable ammount of the influencing factors I'd raise is my high opinion of myself, which is something everyone else could instantly comdenm or frown upon.

Regardless, what's the point of me saying "guys, I'm the town bomb, let me live!"? It will only open a whole can of worms of people saying "he fake-claimed bomb in a last-ditch attempt at surviving", people will vote in a disorganized manner (but scum will be organized enough to stop at L-1 and not hammer) and we're 100% getting a townie to hammer and explode.

If you think town is better off by allowing me to live, fine, but that decision has to come from the other players, not from me. While that decision has not come, I'll behave the only possible way: trying to force scum to explode with me.

I hope I've answered everything you wanted to know. If I didn't, please let me know and I'll get to it as soon as possible.

Fasposted by Betiko: did not yet read his post.