crazymilkshake5 wrote:there is only town A silly, quit acting like there is another town
I know there is, I was greeting you all! . This town is kind of scary.
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crazymilkshake5 wrote:there is only town A silly, quit acting like there is another town
aage wrote:Never trust CYOC or pancake.
pancakemix wrote:Vote Rodion, as he probably devised that as a mafia/mafia.
Some7hingCLEVER wrote:pancakemix wrote:Vote Rodion, as he probably devised that as a mafia/mafia.
lol that is some wierd logic lol nobody is gonna do that as they would just be killed in the mafia game and would win??
Rodion wrote:Deadline is pretty short so I think we should be getting down to business.
I'm guessing a 12-player setup has 9 town and 3 mafia. I'm also guessing Mafia A and Mafia B are not exactly the same (roughly 0,6% if roles were random in both games - if they were not random, I'm guessing / made them different because otherwise we'd end up realizing that eventually).
Disregarding 3rd parties (which could exist), there are possibly 4 kinds of players:
town/town
town/mafia
mafia/town
mafia/mafia (roughly 2,72% if roles were randomly selected and if I did not f*ck up the math)
I'd like to try some sort of "plea bargaining" deal with town/mafia and mafia/town players. How does that work? By claiming you're town in one game and mafia in the other (for your safety, you don't have to specify), if I end up seeing you flip mafia in one of the games I'll most likely consider you cleared in the other. If you do not accept the deal and you flip mafia in one of the games, you will not earn any prerogative in the other (in fact, you'll be instantly earning a FOS in the other game as punishment for not being part of the deal).
That said, I'm a town/town player (going with the 9-3 speculation, there are at least 6 town/town players in the game).
Any town/mafia or mafia/town takers?
drunkmonkey wrote:Some7hingCLEVER wrote:pancakemix wrote:Vote Rodion, as he probably devised that as a mafia/mafia.
lol that is some wierd logic lol nobody is gonna do that as they would just be killed in the mafia game and would win??
vote Some7hingCLEVER until I decipher this.
drunkmonkey wrote:unvote, as we really don't have time for a joke phase.
I agree that no one is going to play along with Rodion's "plea bargain" idea. Let's assume the 3/9 number is correct. That means each potential lynchee has a 25% chance of success today (with no information). If [player x] declares himself to be mafia/town, the odds of a successful lynch just rose to 50% for [player x]. We'd be silly not to lynch him. The only way out would be to declare himself as a power role on the other side, and now we're outing power roles on D1 (which is generally a bad idea).
Commander9 wrote:Trust Edoc, as I know he's VERY good.
zimmah wrote:Mind like a brick.
drunkmonkey wrote:For one, I think it creates a dangerous false sense of security if there is a mafia/mafia who claims mafia/town.
Rodion wrote:Are you guys not taking the deal because you are town in both games or because you don't feel the conditions are worth it?
Rodion wrote:drunkmonkey wrote:For one, I think it creates a dangerous false sense of security if there is a mafia/mafia who claims mafia/town.
Is this an answer to this?Rodion wrote:Are you guys not taking the deal because you are town in both games or because you don't feel the conditions are worth it?
Commander9 wrote:Trust Edoc, as I know he's VERY good.
zimmah wrote:Mind like a brick.
Rodion wrote:drunkmonkey wrote:For one, I think it creates a dangerous false sense of security if there is a mafia/mafia who claims mafia/town.
Is this an answer to this?Rodion wrote:Are you guys not taking the deal because you are town in both games or because you don't feel the conditions are worth it?
edocsil wrote:Not taking the deal because I assume you are trying to trick me. I don't know your goal, and I could think of a hundred scenarios where some sort of claim biased thing that would be bad for me. You could be a cult recruiter for all I know looking for townies. Your plan offers me no visible benefit and large risks, regardless of my alignment. Why would I even consider it?
drunkmonkey wrote:It was an answer to "why aren't you guys taking the deal?", I just didn't choose one of your prepared options. It's because I question the merits to town as a result of the plea bargains. I've mentioned two bad scenarios now - one is outing power roles because they gave us a reason to lynch them by claiming "mafia/town", and the other is handing mafia/mafia an easy fakeclaim in one of their games.
Rodion wrote:edocsil wrote:Not taking the deal because I assume you are trying to trick me. I don't know your goal, and I could think of a hundred scenarios where some sort of claim biased thing that would be bad for me. You could be a cult recruiter for all I know looking for townies. Your plan offers me no visible benefit and large risks, regardless of my alignment. Why would I even consider it?
Interesting.
I would think a town/town player would say they are not taking the deal because they are logically ineligible to a deal that was offered to town/mafia and mafia/town players.
You are not taking the deal because you are afraid of being tricked and even raised, albeit hypothetically, the possibility of a cult recruiter into the game. In an ideal word I'd find that rather telling of alignment, but unfortunately you're not the only one shooting my plan down. Consider yourself FOSed.drunkmonkey wrote:It was an answer to "why aren't you guys taking the deal?", I just didn't choose one of your prepared options. It's because I question the merits to town as a result of the plea bargains. I've mentioned two bad scenarios now - one is outing power roles because they gave us a reason to lynch them by claiming "mafia/town", and the other is handing mafia/mafia an easy fakeclaim in one of their games.
What exactly are you envisioning for scenario 1?
Player A claims town/mafia.
Player A gets bandwagonned (before I get a chance to say anything) in the game that he is town.
Player A claims cop/doctor.
Is that it?
Because it doesn't have to play out like this and, the way I envisioned the process, it won't.
As for scenario 2, I said I'd "most likely" consider them cleared. As in they'd go to the bottom of the suspicion list. Doesn't mean I'd be shortsighted enough not to lynch that person after a cop claimed he had innocent results on everyone else. You can call it a "90% clearance" if you will.
Regardless of that, I must ask you, John: if someone were to claim "I am town in one game and mafia in the other", do you think players that are town in both would be more or less likely to win their games?
everywhere116 wrote:You da man! Well, not really, because we're colorful ponies, but you get the idea.
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