Alien: First Contact - town win!!

[madmitch]

@ Ragian are saying you are not a security guard or psychic or you are one of them, or are you trying to find out who is because you are the queen

[Pikanchion]

Right. I'm out of jokes. And since we have like five days left of D1, perhaps we should get down to business.

I haven't really played a small game like this before and I was wondering what would be the best tactics. For instance, if we have a psychic and/or a security officer, would it make sense for town to know? Obviously, the Alien Queen would know too, so it might be the worst idea ever.

All I'm saying is that I'm not sure how to go about this. Anyone with brilliant thoughts?

Assuming nobody fake claims: If we have neither unique role then nobody will claim anything other than Science Officer, so claiming won't really change anything, if we have only one of them and they claim we'll lose them tonight so... At least we'll know who to lynch tomorrow? =P We will also improve our random lynch success rate by a whole 2.38%! Meanwhile if we have both then we only lose one of them tonight but then we don't know which to lynch tomorrow, buuuuut at least our lynch success today will improve by 5.71%.

Therefore, if these roles claim today we improve our chances of winning before the first night begins by an average of 2.62% to 16.90% up from 14.29%, but then we almost certainly lose that role tonight and our future chances fall dramatically. For this reason it is clear the Alien Queen wouldn't claim anything other than Science Officer today unless they were being incredibly reckless, likewise for the possible Security Officer and/or Psychic. It would seem to me that it is up to each individual Science Officer to decide whether they want a random lynch without any claims today or do something reckless themselves.

Any organised recklessness is likely doomed to failure as the Alien Queen is among us, but is individual recklessness justified in this game type? -Say one of the Science Officers claim a power role today, and everybody else claims Science Officer:

• In the case we have no power roles nobody will counterclaim, we would lynch somebody else with the benefit of the aforementioned 2.38% raise in successful lynch likelihood (as if we had a single power role) for today at no cost, the liar will likely be alien-i-fied tonight, and we lynch them tomorrow. The cult does not get to grow and our chances are increased.
  
• If we have a single power role and they are not the one claimed by the liar then the above still follows, only we increase the chance of lynching/forcing the true power role to expose themselves to avoid the lynch by the same 2.38%.
  
• If we have a single conflicting legitimate power role, they can either counter-claim (which would only end badly as far as I can see) or they remain silent, if they remain silent the previous case still applies.
  
• If we have a legitimate version of both roles then we keep the 2.38% increase in hitting scum (16.67% up from 14.29%), but now we have a 4.76% increase in -at the very least- forcing the true roles to claim (33.33% up from 28.57%).

The issue here is that the Alien Queen should have no reason to claim a power role under normal circumstances, so if you use this to make the assumption that the Alien Queen would never claim a power role you can quickly come to the conclusion that plans like having town lying may work as they should under certain scenarios raise the town's odds of winning. However the moment you decide to go down this path we no longer have normal circumstances and the Alien Queen might decide to claim a power role if pushed. Again I believe this game is currently very much in the hands of the Science Officers, rather than the Alien Queen or any power roles, if none of them lie today then we leave it to a roll of the dice until tomorrow, but if one of them lies the game is now a WIFOM and scum-hunting situation.

[madmitch]

You are correct, the only logical thing to do is nothing We probally have to wait until nightfall to see what is what.

[Ragian]

@ Ragian are saying you are not a security guard or psychic or you are one of them, or are you trying to find out who is because you are the queen

I'm going to ignore this.

@Pikanchion, cheers for the breakdown. I'm not a math kind of person, so I'd be more worried with how we went about claiming if we were to claim. If the Alien Queen claims last, she'd be able to claim whatever fits the scenario (e.g. she could claim psychic if no one has claimed that before). If we were to claim, it might not be a bad idea for any psychic or security officer to claim science officer, I think.

[DirtyDishSoap]

Right. I'm out of jokes. And since we have like five days left of D1, perhaps we should get down to business.

I haven't really played a small game like this before and I was wondering what would be the best tactics. For instance, if we have a psychic and/or a security officer, would it make sense for town to know? Obviously, the Alien Queen would know too, so it might be the worst idea ever.

All I'm saying is that I'm not sure how to go about this. Anyone with brilliant thoughts?

I don't think mass claiming is a great idea in this, it's a cult set up so time is important. I know I'm an advocate of a no lynch but given the scenario if we don't try to lynch I think we might lose by day 3.

[Ragian]

Why?

[Samlen]

We can loose by day two if we're terrible. Lynch a townie today, vig kills town tonight and cult recruits and we lynch two townies tomorrow.

On lynching, it's pretty important to hit the alien queen asap so we should lynch every chance we get. I've never done the two lynch a day thing before so how will that work? Do we lynch one person, see if we loose/win, then continue to lynch another?

On mass claiming, it should happen, but i'm not sure if this is day 1 or 2 thing.

[DirtyDishSoap]

Why?

Let's assume we have at least one of the power roles in this game. If he claims, he'll be converted. I would rather leave things ambiguous and attempt to pressure people.

[Ragian]

No. Why lynch?

[Samlen]

Because, unlike your typical mafia game, we have a chance to instantly win the game with a lynch today. That said, small game so no lynching could buy us a day, depending on how poor our cult hunting skills are.

[Ragian]

I was asking DDS, but thanks

[DirtyDishSoap]

That being said, I don't think using a 2nd lynch would be wise.

And what Sam said lol

[IcePack]

Interesting. In my limited experience, I find it pretty odd someone wants everyone else to explain the town tactics in detail.
I mean, if we layout the blueprint for the plan clearly for the alien queen, doesn't that make it easier for the Queen to counter? perhaps we are providing ideas and counter plans for the queen they wouldn't have otherwise thought of on their own.

To me, this chain of thought seems more prying and digging then someone legitimately working for the town.

unvote my joke vote, and FOS on Ragian for now.

Right. I'm out of jokes. And since we have like five days left of D1, perhaps we should get down to business.

I haven't really played a small game like this before and I was wondering what would be the best tactics. For instance, if we have a psychic and/or a security officer, would it make sense for town to know? Obviously, the Alien Queen would know too, so it might be the worst idea ever.

All I'm saying is that I'm not sure how to go about this. Anyone with brilliant thoughts?

@ Ragian are saying you are not a security guard or psychic or you are one of them, or are you trying to find out who is because you are the queen

I'm going to ignore this.

@Pikanchion, cheers for the breakdown. I'm not a math kind of person, so I'd be more worried with how we went about claiming if we were to claim. If the Alien Queen claims last, she'd be able to claim whatever fits the scenario (e.g. she could claim psychic if no one has claimed that before). If we were to claim, it might not be a bad idea for any psychic or security officer to claim science officer, I think.

Why?

No. Why lynch?

[strike wolf]

This was pretty much my thoughts on Rage so far. Especially asking about a potential mass claim. It should be obvious that the Queen gains the most from a full claim. Fake claims are easy. The queen wouldn't even need to (and if she's smart) wouldn't wait until last to fake claim science officer.

[Ragian]

I am not inherently against a mass claim. I think clever town would fake claim in order to weed out the Alien Queen. But I see how it's easy to pick on whoever gets the game going. You're more than welcome to just sit back and do nothing.

[DirtyDishSoap]

It's not that I don't want to do anything, but I don't want to give out an incredible advantage when A. It's a cult game and B. IF we have any of the power roles in this game, it's in our best interest to keep them hidden for as long as possible. Ragian wasn't even questioning the mass claim but the lynch which is understandable given how many players we have. Again, to me, it's cult, and time is against us if we don't do anything.

As for the lynch, I think lynching twice on Day 1 would be overkill. The problem of trying to lynch anyone in this game is the claims of "Well, I'm a science officer" will go un-refuted, but as Sam stated earlier, we have the ability to actually end the game on Day 1 before it gets out of control. The chances of it happening are low however but they increase over time, even if the Queen were to convert one other player by Days 2. The most important goal here is to kill the Queen and deal with the converted later.

With that being said, I'm down with either Skoffin since I believe she's submarining on this, or Madmitch because...Well madmitch just tends to hurt town more than help.

[Skoffin]

Statistically we are unlikely to snag our Quen today, on the other we could win right now if we get lucky. I do not think a mass claim would be beneficial. I think our best option is to essentially pick someone, through whatever means, and see how they counter or claim. The Quen is more likely to mess up in desperation then by us pre-planning out how to claim.

[Ragian]

More specifically, I was asking DDS why he prefers a lynch given that he's usually vehemently against lynching D1. That has, however, been clarified. Again, I don't necessarily think that a mass claim is counterproductive despite giving information to the Alien Queen. Whoever claims towards the end of the mass claim will undergo the most scrutiny given they've seen all the other roles. Moreover, if there are two science officers left and everyone has claimed science officers, they would claim psychic and security officer in order to fool the Alien Queen. These are the things that appeal to me in terms of a mass claim.

[Pikanchion]

Debating if we lynch once or twice today is rather pointless if you read the rules =P

[benga]

7) If the majority of the players vote for one player to be lynched, the day ends. You may also vote for nobody to be lynched during the day by posting VOTE: No Lynch

[DirtyDishSoap]

Debating if we lynch once or twice today is rather pointless if you read the rules =P

Lol, oops. Well, everyone is presuming we have two power roles as well when it's stated that we could all just be science officers.
Im against with revealing power roles though. If they get converted, we lose alot of utility as town.

[Ragian]

I completely understand that. But at least acknowledge what I'm saying

[DirtyDishSoap]

I completely understand that. But at least acknowledge what I'm saying

I did! I just don't agree with it! Lol.

Here's how I think it would play out if we had both power roles with a mass claim.

Mass claim happens.

People immediately claim science officer, one or possibly 2 of the remaining claim the power role(s). One or the other is fake. Security shoots the fake and it turns out to be an SO (Science Officer) or the psychic wastes a read on the fake. Queen gets an easy pass and just converts another, essentially wasting Day 1 without any progress other than the process of elimination on who's who, essentially making the game a 4vs2, after that the real pressure would be on town to bring their A game, this is kind of why I want Mitch out of the picture.
OR The real ones claim and get's converted later, and we would lose our utility, but we'd be too damn scared to lynch them because we need them. We're basically painting a giant red target on them. The Queen is unlikely to target any one of the power roles because we have the same amount of chance that he/she would guess the correct person with such a role as much as we would guess who the Queen is, if that makes sense. I think it's counter productive to give any sort of information to the Queen, and it would likely hurt the town more if anyone were to fake claim a power role.

[madmitch]

@DDS You piss me off, Granted I might not be the best player but I am improving. I don't believe you are any better than me,granted you like to make long posts and pretend you know it all but you are just repeating what has been already said. I think it would be better for town if we got rid of a windbag like you,

[strike wolf]

By day 2 wed also be stuck in the Wifom situation of whether we could even trust the claimed power role to a. Have Been telling the truth from rhe start and B. To still be on our side and trustworthy. Furthermore anyone smart playing the Alien Queen would realize that claiming last or close to last often ends in more scrutiny and will simply claim early on, especially now that we are pointing it out. In the end, openly claiming our power roles whether truthfully claiming or the alternate method Rage suggested is moronic. For the time being the best plan is to not claim and assume that there are no power roles.

Excepting the portion I wish to respond to:

Ragian wasn't even questioning the mass claim but the lynch

Actually Rage wasn't initially questioning Lynch vs. No Lynch. He asked people what they thought as good strategy and whether our power roles should claim. Perhaps saying he was talking about Mass claim initially is a bit of an inflation but it was actually you who brought up Lynch vs no Lynch:

Right. I'm out of jokes. And since we have like five days left of D1, perhaps we should get down to business.

I haven't really played a small game like this before and I was wondering what would be the best tactics. For instance, if we have a psychic and/or a security officer, would it make sense for town to know? Obviously, the Alien Queen would know too, so it might be the worst idea ever.

All I'm saying is that I'm not sure how to go about this. Anyone with brilliant thoughts?

I don't think mass claiming is a great idea in this, it's a cult set up so time is important. I know I'm an advocate of a no lynch but given the scenario if we don't try to lynch I think we might lose by day 3.