Major Shift in Markets

[2dimes]

Part of Gold's value is it's universal. If Canuck bux deflate like Zimbabwe dollars. I should be able to use the gold to get things.

If there are no things in Canada because we can't afford to restock our American owned stores with Chinese products I attempt to emmigrate with my gold. If the gold is physical I only risk being raped murdered and robbed of it.

If the gold is a certificate from Ugly Bob's gold shack. I run the risk that one of Ugly Bob's employees emigrated with the physical gold so the certificate is null. When I try to open An account in brazil and deposit money from cashing in one of the certificates. The teller talks about being a moron in portuguese to his fellow employees then tells me in English, "Sorry, we can't give you money for this."

If the scenario is that dire, or as it approaches such a crisis, I'd rather have gold than paper cash. In a doomsday scenario, it would be best to have tangible goods and skills which others would find valuable (e.g. canned goods, guns, a car, think: Mad Max). As the doomsday scenario approaches, you'd rather have gold than having paper money--or even gold certificates.

Right. Also sitting here with a full stomach and electricity makes it easy to think about the sky falling. I have three gold coins.

I did have to wonder how dire the Greek election was. If the euro crashes does it affect the US dollar and Canuck bux?

The price of gold isn't set by some central planner or conniving elite group, unless they somehow own all the gold, or can force you to sell your gold at such a price (e.g. via coercion).

Could the coercion take the form of. "We have groceries over at the armory. 20 ounces of gold gets you a bag full."?

[Lootifer]

Gold??? , yeah you know what you're talkin about! I wish I could afford to buy some gold. Lootifer, the writing is on the wall. If you can't read, then that sucks...

Thanks for the condescension.

By gold i mean precious/rare metals, choose whatever you like. A mixed portfolio would be ideal...

But what I meant originally was "Whoa the world is in a time of financial uncertainty and people are stocking up on precious metals? Thanks for the update captain obvious!".

Sorry if you seem to think your insight into the world of precious and rare metals gives you some kind of interlectual superiority, but some of us actually listened in our first lessons on economics in school days so...

[saxitoxin]

I've long turned to Sears for my investment needs. It's convenient because I can pick-up a Black & Decker cordless screwdriver, a 3-pack of bras for Esmerelda, and a bag of silver, all in one trip.

[Juan_Bottom]

OK,

So the American people hold all the metal, and the American government is left with paper debt. What's to stop them from, say, flipping the argument and declaring war with China? People would get all patriotic, the government could cancel it's foreign paper debts, and they could confiscate all of the precious metals that the people have. Worse, the people would thank them for it.... no wait, whats worse is that the same government would remain in power. When 'peacetime' Nazi Germany reached the peak of self-lending with paper money, that's when Hitler started his proxy wars/takeovers.

Free Trade is the surest way towards world peace.
But I do not yet believe that the surest way back to an accountable government or a fair trade America is through material wealth. Our government would still have other hypothetically viable options. And while world war sounds like too despicable and evil of an option, recent history tells us that nothing is too dirty for the .5%.

[Phatscotty]

I've long turned to Sears for my investment needs. It's convenient because I can pick-up a Black & Decker cordless screwdriver, a 3-pack of bras for Esmerelda, and a bag of silver, all in one trip.

Trapped by Reagan! and yes that was the idea

[Phatscotty]

CNBC - We're all debt slaves now.
Congratulations!



4 sec: "Do we all work for Central Bankers? Is this Global Governance at last? Is it One World.. with the Central Bankers in charge?"
1 min: "To answer your question: We are absolutely slave to Central Banks"
1 min 16sec: "Markets are driven by policy now, they're not driven by market forces"
1 min 26 sec: "Fiat currency thats continually watered down.. so the markets go up and we feel good about it"
2min 25 sec: "We are basically beholden to Central Bankers"
2min 30sec: "..admits (Federal Reserve) are debasing currency and borrowing our way to false prosperity"
2min 48sec: "Every Central Bank in the world has to devalue their currency"
3min 28sec: "Free markets will fight back and ultimately they'll win"

[BigBallinStalin]

Part of Gold's value is it's universal. If Canuck bux deflate like Zimbabwe dollars. I should be able to use the gold to get things.

If there are no things in Canada because we can't afford to restock our American owned stores with Chinese products I attempt to emmigrate with my gold. If the gold is physical I only risk being raped murdered and robbed of it.

If the gold is a certificate from Ugly Bob's gold shack. I run the risk that one of Ugly Bob's employees emigrated with the physical gold so the certificate is null. When I try to open An account in brazil and deposit money from cashing in one of the certificates. The teller talks about being a moron in portuguese to his fellow employees then tells me in English, "Sorry, we can't give you money for this."

Right, which is why gold certificates don't seem as valuable as cold, hard gold. But still, I imagine if you invested in gold mining stocks, ETFs, and what not, you could sell your shares whenever doomsday would approach, (or to be less mean, right before a recession somehow, and if you're not expecting something worse after that recession in the short-term).

If the scenario is that dire, or as it approaches such a crisis, I'd rather have gold than paper cash. In a doomsday scenario, it would be best to have tangible goods and skills which others would find valuable (e.g. canned goods, guns, a car, think: Mad Max). As the doomsday scenario approaches, you'd rather have gold than having paper money--or even gold certificates.

Right. Also sitting here with a full stomach and electricity makes it easy to think about the sky falling. I have three gold coins.

I did have to wonder how dire the Greek election was. If the euro crashes does it affect the US dollar and Canuck bux?

Hey, you brought up the doomsday talk! Not me! No food at all, or gold being un-exchangeable for food is very unlikely, since the value of gold as a medium of exchange depends upon its particular properties: its rare, durable, divisible, etc. Think: Karl Menger's The Origin of Money.

RE: question. Yeah, very likely, but "by how much?" Not sure. We could look at the historic data. How about I throw down an international comparison of business cycles using such variables like volume of trade between Country A and B, and magnitude of recession (GDP?), and then run a time-series to say how each country was effected and lol like whatever! I'm not familiar with the literature regarding your question.

The price of gold isn't set by some central planner or conniving elite group, unless they somehow own all the gold, or can force you to sell your gold at such a price (e.g. via coercion).

Could the coercion take the form of. "We have groceries over at the armory. 20 ounces of gold gets you a bag full."?

It depends. If someone holds a gun to your head, or implies that they will shoot you if you don't take the deal, then that's coercion. It's not a voluntary exchange.

[BigBallinStalin]

OK,

So the American people hold all the metal, and the American government is left with paper debt. What's to stop them from, say, flipping the argument and declaring war with China? People would get all patriotic, the government could cancel it's foreign paper debts, and they could confiscate all of the precious metals that the people have. Worse, the people would thank them for it.... no wait, whats worse is that the same government would remain in power. When 'peacetime' Nazi Germany reached the peak of self-lending with paper money, that's when Hitler started his proxy wars/takeovers.

Free Trade is the surest way towards world peace.
But I do not yet believe that the surest way back to an accountable government or a fair trade America is through material wealth. Our government would still have other hypothetically viable options. And while world war sounds like too despicable and evil of an option, recent history tells us that nothing is too dirty for the .5%.

Is you serious? I need some SaxiMeds, the greatest way to relieve headaches! Choose SaxiMeds! Number One Certified!

[PLAYER57832]

None of that will matter. Once oil becomes a tad more expensive, our system will collapse anyway.

[2dimes]

It's not that difficult to run a city out of groceries. Is that doomsday?
How long can your pantry sustain you?

[BigBallinStalin]

None of that will matter. Once oil becomes a tad more expensive, our system will collapse anyway.

That's an interesting hypothesis. What's the correlation between the price of oil and US GDP?



Check out the 5-year prices: http://oil-price.net/dashboard.php?lang=en

(Prices jump to roughly 140 around May 2008), but...



There seems to be a lag between the price of oil increasing significantly and a fall in the growth rate...


Also, why was the price of oil increasing before the recession? Does the price of oil rise because more people expect something bad to happen? How does this connection between the price of oil and US GDP pan out?


What really matters is how the Federal Reserve and the US federal government react to these crises and how their previous actions affect future outcomes.

[PLAYER57832]

None of that will matter. Once oil becomes a tad more expensive, our system will collapse anyway.

That's an interesting hypothesis. What's the correlation between the price of oil and US GDP?

NO correlation was implied or is necessary.
Production of oil increase just means that the stocks of cheaply available oil are used up more quickly. The impact only hits when that access stops or significantly slows.

Check out the 5-year prices: http://oil-price.net/dashboard.php?lang=en

(Prices jump to roughly 140 around May 2008), but...



There seems to be a lag between the price of oil increasing significantly and a fall in the growth rate...


Also, why was the price of oil increasing before the recession? Does the price of oil rise because more people expect something bad to happen? How does this connection between the price of oil and US GDP pan out?


What really matters is how the Federal Reserve and the US federal government react to these crises and how their previous actions affect future outcomes.

If you really want to get into it, I can, but its lengthy.. and I strongly suspect you know most of it anyway.

The short answer is that oil prices are not really set by the free market (though, unlike some right wingers like to insist, they are not set or even much influenced by the US president, either). The longer answer is that lack of oil is just a symptom of a far greater problem. The far greater problem is a complete lack of attention to sustainability.

But, even in that, we could get out of our dependence on oil, convert to truly sustainable systems. Except.. those in power don't want it and most people don't realize how much trouble we are actually in, ar enot willing to look ahead and take the hits they will have to take to see us into a different future.

The US reserve, etc are significant only as long as the source of cheap oil continues. Our entire system, our entire growth and a majority of the gains we see as making modern life tenable are a result of cheap availability of oil. No manipulation of currency can change that. In fact, the manipulations often hide the impacts of real problems.

Markets are not supposed to be only positive. That's not a true free market. Yet, business leaders seem to want just that, and now we, the populace are having to pay for their growth. In the past, our society was built in the opposite manner, from the bottom up. Societies based on just sustaining the top at the expense of the populace inevitably fail.

[BigBallinStalin]

I'm not at all familiar with the literature about oil prices and GDP growth rates. Are you? Surely, there's some academic article you could easily point to, seeing that you firmly believe in your hypothesis, right?


If sustainability is the issue, then what's your time frame for peak oil? How do you foresee the creation of new substitutes, or improved ways of consuming oil, affecting your appeal to sustainability?


Your last paragraph is implying that something catastrophic will happen. When? How significant will it be? And what's your evidence?

[Lootifer]

I am soooo not reading Players rant.

Ur such a sucker BBS.

[2dimes]

So there you have it, nevermind gold, buy a tank of crude.

[Lootifer]

So there you have it, nevermind gold, buy a tank of crude.

Lol.

[PLAYER57832]

I'm not at all familiar with the literature about oil prices and GDP growth rates. Are you? Surely, there's some academic article you could easily point to, seeing that you firmly believe in your hypothesis, right?

You are asking the wrong questions. Entirely. I hit "Submit" a bit too soon. I answered part of it above. The rest... I can get into another day if you still wish to discuss this.

If sustainability is the issue, then what's your time frame for peak oil?

Again, the wrong question. The issue is not just oil, but cheap oil. World reserves of readily accessible and high-quality oil have almost certainly already peaked.

How do you foresee the creation of new substitutes, or improved ways of consuming oil, affecting your appeal to sustainability?

Rgiht now, there are no easy answers. A lot of research that could have yeilded results was simply not funded. You would pretty much have to look to China, now, for the best answers. Ironically enough, they actually take this seriously. And, having a command economy are able to implement a lot of draconian changes quickly that the US politicians simply won't.

BUT, a lot of this is about food and producing more food locally, improving local access to various things. Its a lot more complicated than just that (and its not all about "just go local".. sometimes local is not actually better, but for a quick answer, that is as close as I can get)

Your last paragraph is implying that something catastrophic will happen. When? How significant will it be? And what's your evidence?

Evidence? We have had a lot of "mini warnings" already. Look what has happened when there are even small increases in the world food prices. Then you can look at the water situation, the fact that in the US alone, we are essentially "mining" water.. and now further using it to mine (hydro-fracking) in a way that takes the water out of the useable cycle for the forseable future.

Or, pollution, the fact that there is literally not one square inch of the Earth not currently impacted negatively by pollution.

All of that is even without any implication from global climate changes, etc.

But.. gotta go now.

[BigBallinStalin]

I am soooo not reading Players rant.

Ur such a sucker BBS.

According to BBS-PLAYER Time Cycle Theory, BBS seriously addresses a Playerian post every 3.8 months. I must adhere to the theory, Lootifer.


Between me and Lootifer:

show

[PLAYER57832]

I am soooo not reading Players rant.

Trouble is, its not "my rant".

But go ahead. No reason to actually think, eh?

[BigBallinStalin]

I am soooo not reading Players rant.

Ur such a sucker BBS.

I gave up already. I was going to throw down some [citation needed]'s and highlight her post with a color-coded legend, but c'mon, life's too short, and with her it doesn't matter. She's already convinced, and when pressed for evidence (correlation between oil prices and GDP growth rates), she waffles. Haha, oh well!

[PLAYER57832]

I am soooo not reading Players rant.

Ur such a sucker BBS.

I gave up already. I was going to throw down some [citation needed]'s and highlight her post with a color-coded legend, but c'mon, life's too short, and with her it doesn't matter. She's already convinced, and when pressed for evidence (correlation between oil prices and GDP growth rates), she waffles. Haha, oh well!

Yeah, call it waffling when I say "hey, not buying your attempt to shift the 'debate' ".

Actually investigating claims might just make you admit you are wrong, after all.

[BigBallinStalin]

I am soooo not reading Players rant.

Ur such a sucker BBS.

I gave up already. I was going to throw down some [citation needed]'s and highlight her post with a color-coded legend, but c'mon, life's too short, and with her it doesn't matter. She's already convinced, and when pressed for evidence (correlation between oil prices and GDP growth rates), she waffles. Haha, oh well!

Yeah, call it waffling when I say "hey, not buying your attempt to shift the 'debate' ".

Actually investigating claims might just make you admit you are wrong, after all.

Player, I asked for support. You didn't provide any. It's just you rambling.

[PLAYER57832]

I am soooo not reading Players rant.

Ur such a sucker BBS.

I gave up already. I was going to throw down some [citation needed]'s and highlight her post with a color-coded legend, but c'mon, life's too short, and with her it doesn't matter. She's already convinced, and when pressed for evidence (correlation between oil prices and GDP growth rates), she waffles. Haha, oh well!

Yeah, call it waffling when I say "hey, not buying your attempt to shift the 'debate' ".

Actually investigating claims might just make you admit you are wrong, after all.

Player, I asked for support. You didn't provide any. It's just you rambling.

No, you asked me to prove a point that you wish I had made.. becuase then you will pounce on me and refute it. Except, I never made the point you wish to claim.

[BigBallinStalin]

I am soooo not reading Players rant.

Ur such a sucker BBS.

Yes, I am.

According to BBS-PLAYER Time Cycle Theory, BBS will seriously address a Playerian post in the next 3.8 months.

[Phatscotty]