Italian court convicts 7 scientists of Manslaughter

[chang50]

If earthquakes can't be predicted then, other than securing a cushy government job, what field are these people actually "expert" in?

Earthquakes are predicted regularly....

Even though that is a lie, I'll give you the opportunity to post some examples before I call you a liar.

A quick google search of successful earthquake predictions reveals several examples,from different areas.

Post em.

So you can dismiss them as forecasts,because you are using predict to mean something different to me? I was employing the common usage of the word which as you know is synonomous with forecast..
I also don't automatically jump when someone hands out orders,so you can look yourself..oh and you forgot to say please.

[HapSmo19]

I'm gonna predict the winning powerball numbers now:

1, 2, 3, 4, 5, pb6

I wouldn't recommend you play these all at once but I can safely predict these will appear alongside other winning numbers within the next ten years. Sweet, huh?

How much would you pay for this service?

[Nobunaga]

... These scientists sound like good candidates for the IPCC.

...

[bedub1]

7 scientists have been convicted of manslaughter for failing to adequately warn residents of the 2009 earthquake.

The last time Italy did something this stupid was in 1633 when they tried Galileo as a heretic for his contention that the Earth revolved around the sun and not vice versa as Catholic church teaching then held.

Dear Italy: Way to pull your head out of your ass and make some progress over the past 379 years.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/world/italian-exp ... -1.1005457

Unfuckingbelieveable!!!!

On a side note, why are you watching Canadian news bedub?

I didn't actually watch Canadian news. I just found the article online and linked to it. But I do like watching the Canadian tv stations that we get here in Washington State. Canada's coverage of the Olympics destroyed NBC's.

[BigBallinStalin]

I fully support this verdict. Being that these government "scientists" themselves agree that earthquakes are impossible to predict, by imprisoning them, the Italian taxpayer is finally going to get his/her moneys' worth out of these guys. He'll, once inside, they can make a seismograph out of a roll of toilet paper and a tattoo gun if they need long sheets of paper with squiggly lines to pointlessly mull over.

Slave labor science?

[thegreekdog]

I fully support this verdict. Being that these government "scientists" themselves agree that earthquakes are impossible to predict, by imprisoning them, the Italian taxpayer is finally going to get his/her moneys' worth out of these guys. He'll, once inside, they can make a seismograph out of a roll of toilet paper and a tattoo gun if they need long sheets of paper with squiggly lines to pointlessly mull over.

Slave labor science?

Scientists should boycott Italy.

[Funkyterrance]

They can put them in a firing line if they decide to, it's their government after all. Aint any of my business to judge. It's too bad if you all find it "ridiculous" but it is what it is. Seems like there is more focus on this because it involves "science", a very popular religion on these forums. I feel there are much greater travesties to focus on than these poor, innocent scientists. There are virtually no details regarding the case in the article provided yet the majority are assuming absolute innocence. It's mildly humorous.

[Rodion]

The crux of the prosecution case was that they went on the media and told people it wasn't going to happen and they shouldn't worry or prepare.

If that did happen, the ruling was adequate.

[muy_thaiguy]

I reluctantly agree. Some of the things they said may have actively hurt the situation. Manslaughter seems like a lot to me, but some sort of negligence discussion is in order. They definitely should have lost their jobs. But I don't think they were criminally negligent for some reason.

Well, Man 2 in the US (no clue about Italy) basically involves psychiatric care (or something similar) for an extended period of time with no time spent in prison.

[BigBallinStalin]

And if they released a very broad ("cover your ass") warning, but an earthquake did not occur soon after, then perhaps they would be charged with abusing their authority, disturbing the peace, or whatever.


The scientists are being used as scapegoats. Anything that channels people's hate away from the crappy government will serve that government quite well.

[notyou2]

Seems like semantics to me,absolutely successful prediction is surely impossible.Are you claiming everyone can forecast with more or less equal accuracy?

No, I'm claiming that "There is a fifty percent chance of a magnitude 5.5 at location x sometime in the next ten years" is completely fucking useless information.

Useless to man as that is a substantial amount of time in a mans life, but to the earth, it is incredibly accurate that you can say there will be an earthquake here within 10 years to something that is over 4 billion years old.

[BigBallinStalin]

Seems like semantics to me,absolutely successful prediction is surely impossible.Are you claiming everyone can forecast with more or less equal accuracy?

No, I'm claiming that "There is a fifty percent chance of a magnitude 5.5 at location x sometime in the next ten years" is completely fucking useless information.

Useless to man as that is a substantial amount of time in a mans life, but to the earth, it is incredibly accurate that you can say there will be an earthquake here within 10 years to something that is over 4 billion years old.

Because the range of 4 billion years is useful to humans living today and planning for tomorrow.

amirite amirite amirite?


I don't know much about how forecasting (which is predicting) earthquakes, but [insert opinion here]. It seems that there are some variables which are important yet cannot be made tractable, so the scientist who attempts to forecast the location and exact date of an earthquake should not be expected to accurately predict earthquakes. I assume that the best they can do is record instances of earthquakes at various magnitudes and epicenters, and then make a not-so-useful ballpark figure for the next earthquake.

---But that's using past data to make future projections, which--as far as I know--are very unreliable for earthquakes.

All they can say is that Zone A is 'active,' in that there's been a volcanic eruption or Serious earthquake in Zone A within the past 50 (or 100?) years.


Therefore, this wringing out the scientists and throwing them in prison is a farce. It's just another political parade where scapegoats are stomped on for the voters' delight.

[bedub1]

It's just another political parade where scapegoats are stomped on for the voters' delight.

Is the court trying to appease the citizens?

[BigBallinStalin]

It's just another political parade where scapegoats are stomped on for the voters' delight.

Is the court trying to appease the citizens?

Who started the case? Who do you think would promote such a thing or discourage such a thing?

Perhaps if one holds the naive view that judges operate within isolated bubbles for they are 100% impartial, then one might be correct.

[Symmetry]

It's just another political parade where scapegoats are stomped on for the voters' delight.

Is the court trying to appease the citizens?

Who started the case? Who do you think would promote such a thing or discourage such a thing?

Perhaps if one holds the naive view that judges operate within isolated bubbles for they are 100% impartial, then one might be correct.

I don't know about the motives of the judge exactly, but it's worth noting that the prosecutors asked for 4 years in prison, and the judge gave six.

The judge gave a harsher sentence than even the prosecuting case was asking for.