Is the SVB failure the beginning of the recession?

[saxitoxin]

This is gonna be unlike anything anyone has ever seen.

The job market will remain strong but only because millions of people will be excised from it. So we'll have 3.5% unemployment but with a 50% labor participation rate instead of a 61% labor participation rate. Unemployment will be low but inflation will stay high since productivity will flag due to low labor participation. Meanwhile, poverty will increase.

Eventually, it will be accepted that the only way out is to fight our way out and then we'll have a war to fix everything. Not a three months of air campaigns Libya kind-of war, but a mass mobilization, meatgrinder type of conflict. We'll briefly have 100% employment for 1-2 years and, after the war, we will have shed enough excess population through battle deaths that things will normalize, just like after WWII.

Indeed, as we see how the United States has increased the amount it's been swaggering around, spitting in everyone's eyes, I would guess Washington has already come to this conclusion and is just praying for someone to throw the first punch. Pearl Harbor was preceded by a year of the U.S. putting economic sanctions on Japan, sending arms and volunteers to China, and making loud denouncements of Tokyo.

[jimboston]

This is gonna be unlike anything anyone has ever seen.

The job market will remain strong but only because millions of people will be excised from it. So we'll have 3.5% unemployment but with a 50% labor participation rate instead of a 61% labor participation rate. Unemployment will be low but inflation will stay high since productivity will flag due to low labor participation. Meanwhile, poverty will increase.

Eventually, it will be accepted that the only way out is to fight our way out and then we'll have a war to fix everything. Not a three months of air campaigns Libya kind-of war, but a mass mobilization, meatgrinder type of conflict. We'll briefly have 100% employment for 1-2 years and, after the war, we will have shed enough excess population through battle deaths that things will normalize, just like after WWII.

Indeed, as we see how the United States has increased the amount it's been swaggering around, spitting in everyone's eyes, I would guess Washington has already come to this conclusion and is just praying for someone to throw the first punch. Pearl Harbor was preceded by a year of the U.S. putting economic sanctions on Japan, sending arms and volunteers to China, and making loud denouncements of Tokyo.

OK… so who do you think we are looking to “pick a fight” with?

The problem with either China or Russia…
1) They both have nukes.
2) Their populations and geography are too large to actually invade.

Same for India… but I don’t see them as a true candidate.

What other country is big enough to require mass Mobilization?

Iran? Maybe… but you think Russia and China would sit that out?
Our “allies” would want “part of the action” too so they can later claim some spoils.

Iran also has potential religious overtones that make it unpalatable.

Mexico? Maybe use the gang/fentanyl excuse?

Finally take Baja California for keeps and set up a nice puppet border buffer to hold Central American Immigrants at bay?

I guess Mexico makes the most sense… big enough, but not too big. to pose a real threat.
Definitely some good upside. If we can stomach it.

[bigtoughralf]

What other country is big enough to require mass Mobilization.

The US had to draft 10% of its fighting age population to fight a bunch of Vietnamese farmers hiding in the jungle with rifles.

Iraq crumbled quickly because most of its soldiers didn't really want to fight for Hussein. If the US went up against a semi-motivated foe any bigger than the South Side Bloods it'd get bogged down for at least a decade. Just look at Afghanistan - two decades, a trillion dollars, US still lost.

[saxitoxin]

China

The U.S. won't use nukes unless its territory is threatened and China won't use nukes against a state with a 10:1 advantage and rudimentary missile defense.

In the last 18 months, by my count, no fewer than seven different U.S. officials - in increasingly senior posts - have said war with the PRC is imminent, now up to three star officers.

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/2 ... an-admiral

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... redictions

They're priming the pump.

[bigtoughralf]

They'll have to hurry up if that's their plan. Give it 5-10 years and the US's chances of being able to beat China in a military conflict in China's back yard will have shrunk to 0.

[saxitoxin]

Winning is a bonus, not a requirement.

[bigtoughralf]

tbf stalemate is probably the goal isn't it. Why end in 2 years what can be drawn out for 30. The more excess capital that can be redirected into the war effort, the less comfortable and lazy the populace become.

[Dukasaur]

tbf stalemate is probably the goal isn't it. Why end in 2 years what can be drawn out for 30. The more excess capital that can be redirected into the war effort, the less comfortable and lazy the populace become.

Ignorance is Strength
Freedom is Slavery
War is Peace


To be honest I don't think that's the real fear. I think our natural enemy is AI. The war against Skynet is the one that scares me.

[jimboston]

What other country is big enough to require mass Mobilization.

The US had to draft 10% of its fighting age population to fight a bunch of Vietnamese farmers hiding in the jungle with rifles.

Iraq crumbled quickly because most of its soldiers didn't really want to fight for Hussein. If the US went up against a semi-motivated foe any bigger than the South Side Bloods it'd get bogged down for at least a decade. Just look at Afghanistan - two decades, a trillion dollars, US still lost.

So what you’re saying is we’d kick the sheet out of England in a week or two most?

[jimboston]

China

The U.S. won't use nukes unless its territory is threatened and China won't use nukes against a state with a 10:1 advantage and rudimentary missile defense.

In the last 18 months, by my count, no fewer than seven different U.S. officials - in increasingly senior posts - have said war with the PRC is imminent, now up to three star officers.

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/2 ... an-admiral

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... redictions

They're priming the pump.

We need to onshore some key industries before we start messing with China.

They might not be able to take Taiwan if we really throw our full effort into Taiwan Defensive… but they could disrupt production and shipping.

Maybe this Ukraine war is a good test of our missile defense. Perhaps that’s the primary purpose?

I still think Mexico is a better bet.

We wouldn’t need to share the spoils with Europe and once they become an official client state the immigrants buffer is big.

[saxitoxin]

A war with Mexico wouldn't accomplish anything; Mexico is not capable of mounting any serious resistance and a war would end up being too small and contained to fix the economy. In fact, it would probably make matters worse.

Plus:

1. Mexico imports 70% of its military equipment from the U.S. The U.S. doesn't attack customers. Of the last seven wars (Serbia, Libya, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, Grenada, Panama) only one (Panama) was against a customer and it was in the process of taking its business elsewhere.
2. A war with Mexico cuts off the U.S. supply of one million Mexican H2A visa holders which would crash the entire agriculture sector. This would cause food prices to skyrocket which would irreparably destroy U.S. export markets as Europe shifted to Brazilian, Chinese, and Russian suppliers in the face of mass starvation.

But let's say I'm wrong and Mexico turns into Napoleonic France on steroids. Then you have a major war happening 125 miles south of the U.S.' second largest city. That's also not exactly a recipe for boom times.

[bigtoughralf]

tbf stalemate is probably the goal isn't it. Why end in 2 years what can be drawn out for 30. The more excess capital that can be redirected into the war effort, the less comfortable and lazy the populace become.

Ignorance is Strength
Freedom is Slavery
War is Peace


To be honest I don't think that's the real fear. I think our natural enemy is AI. The war against Skynet is the one that scares me.

Until AI becomes smart enough that I can use it to take my turns at Risk, I'm not afraid of it.

[saxitoxin]

tbf stalemate is probably the goal isn't it. Why end in 2 years what can be drawn out for 30. The more excess capital that can be redirected into the war effort, the less comfortable and lazy the populace become.

Ignorance is Strength
Freedom is Slavery
War is Peace


To be honest I don't think that's the real fear. I think our natural enemy is AI. The war against Skynet is the one that scares me.

Until AI becomes smart enough that I can use it to take my turns at Risk, I'm not afraid of it.

Until AI becomes smart enough that ralf can use it to take his turns at Risk, I'll continue to beat him.

[jonesthecurl]

It would be easy to write a program for ai to win when the computer rolls the dice.

[bigtoughralf]

tbf stalemate is probably the goal isn't it. Why end in 2 years what can be drawn out for 30. The more excess capital that can be redirected into the war effort, the less comfortable and lazy the populace become.

Ignorance is Strength
Freedom is Slavery
War is Peace


To be honest I don't think that's the real fear. I think our natural enemy is AI. The war against Skynet is the one that scares me.

Until AI becomes smart enough that I can use it to take my turns at Risk, I'm not afraid of it.

Until AI becomes smart enough that ralf can use it to take his turns at Risk, I'll continue to beat him.

Shut up corporal.

[Dukasaur]

tbf stalemate is probably the goal isn't it. Why end in 2 years what can be drawn out for 30. The more excess capital that can be redirected into the war effort, the less comfortable and lazy the populace become.

Ignorance is Strength
Freedom is Slavery
War is Peace


To be honest I don't think that's the real fear. I think our natural enemy is AI. The war against Skynet is the one that scares me.

Until AI becomes smart enough that I can use it to take my turns at Risk, I'm not afraid of it.

Until AI becomes smart enough that ralf can use it to take his turns at Risk, I'll continue to beat him.

Shut up corporal.

He's a Corporal 1st class.

He outranks Hitler.

[bigtoughralf]

More extreme politics too.