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Is the Bitcoin bull run starting?

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Bitcoin has dumped from 25,000 to 44,000 over a few months...what happens next?

short lived pamp, going back to 15k soon
1
17%
welcome to the bull market you fucks, HFSP while my account hits 7 figs when BTC hits 100k in 2024
2
33%
It's bull from here on out, but a slow building one. We won't see 100k BTC price until 2025
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No votes
I eat pork, yet self identify as a Jewish Space Laser.
3
50%
GOLD IS THE ONLY CURRENCY GOD APPROVES OF HOARDING
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Total votes : 6

Re: Is the Bitcoin bull run over?

Postby mookiemcgee on Mon Mar 27, 2023 11:06 am

jimboston wrote:
mookiemcgee wrote:
jimboston wrote:Crypto Companies are banks now?

You can’t have it both ways.


Banks such as signature bank, with federal charters are banks.

It's seems like maybe you need to catch up on previous posts before we continue the conversation.

Let me ask you a question Jim, why did Silicon valley bank fail?

Did they make too bad loans that were defaulting?
Did they lose tons of money in crypto?
what was the root cause of their failure?


You are the one comparing Crypto Companies to Banks!

Why did SVB Fail…there’s no ONE Cause…

*They didn’t have enough liquidity.
*They were over-invested in limited assets and when they went to divest they took losses they couldn’t afford.
*They blindly invested in this limited asset without really considering the basic principal that when interest rates rise the value of this asset is absolutely going to drop… not a problem if you can sit on the asset for long term; a big problem if you need to sell.
*That made these investments with full knowledge that the Fed was going to be raising rates.
*They underestimated the cash flow needs of their customers.
*They had a limited customer base. When the industry that this base lives in started to experience turmoil these customers all jumped to access funds in a ‘herd mentality’ manner.

If you had to pick one cause the answer would be BAD MANAGEMENT.

If you had to pick a secondary cause you could blame the economy in general… but that’s dumb. It’s easy to run a business in a growing economy it’s much harder to maintain in a down market.


Yeah I mean i expected a stupider answer, but you basically have it right.

They made too many 'safe' investments that didn't pay enough (sub 2% treasuries), and now have depositors demanding 3-4%
They didn't make very many loans (which is generally the primary function of a bank)

they basically played it too safe. They also had no exposure to crypto (they held some treasuries as deposits from a 'crypto company' called Circle).

So why did Signature bank get closed Jim?

Did they break banking rules and have dealings with Shady partners?
Did they have too many loans default?
Did they have a brief bank run (as virtually all non-GSIB banks did) after the SVB collapse (depositors fled to GSIB banks because- wink wink nudge nudge they are fully insured by the gov't, too big to fail), and were shuttered within 48h of SVC collapse just as they had shored up their books for 'no apparent reason' outside feds wanted to send a mafioso type message aka you are guilty by association?
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Re: Is the Bitcoin bull run over?

Postby jimboston on Mon Mar 27, 2023 5:25 pm

They got shuttered because they didn’t have enough liquid cash to pay depositors.

Had they sold all investments immediately that would not make the difference as their losses would’ve been greater than the value of deposits.

They were going out of business one way or another.

If any message is sent it’s… “if you run a bank into the ground you will lose your job” and maybe “If you invest in a bank that’s being run into the ground you may lose your investment”.
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Re: Is the Bitcoin bull run over?

Postby mookiemcgee on Mon Mar 27, 2023 6:42 pm

jimboston wrote:They got shuttered because they didn’t have enough liquid cash to pay depositors.


False. They were seized on Sunday, a day banks in this country are closed. Depositors can't withdraw their funds from a bank that is closed. All depositors who withdrew the last day they were open (on Friday) were paid in full.
If you disagree post a link to prove they didn't pay depositors (not a 'there was fear they couldn't', but any evidence whatsoever they couldn't)

jimboston wrote:"Had they sold all investments immediately that would not make the difference as their losses would’ve been greater than the value of deposits."


False. They payed all depositors who withdraw on Friday, they were seized that Sunday. The Department of Financial Services in New York, which did the closing HAS NEVER SAID SIGNATURE WAS INSOLVENT (didn't believe this myself until i checked it), meaning no one has ever said their investments < value of deposits. Prove me wrong Jim, I want to be wrong here. Sadly, I've done the research and I'm not. Signature had better looking books than 70% of it's competitors at the time the feds seized it.

jimboston wrote:They were going out of business one way or another."

You took the words right out of Gary Gensler's mouth, sounds just like how Tony Soprano would say it.

The gov't wanted something to happen (close signature), and they made it happen(closed signature) but then they talk alot about something else that happened and get the media to focus on that story to distract from it (SVB).
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Re: Is the Bitcoin bull run over?

Postby HitRed on Mon Mar 27, 2023 8:33 pm

This is ominous…stay tuned folks!
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Re: Is the Bitcoin bull run over?

Postby jimboston on Tue Mar 28, 2023 8:44 am

mookiemcgee wrote:
jimboston wrote:They got shuttered because they didn’t have enough liquid cash to pay depositors.


False. They were seized on Sunday, a day banks in this country are closed. Depositors can't withdraw their funds from a bank that is closed. All depositors who withdrew the last day they were open (on Friday) were paid in full.
If you disagree post a link to prove they didn't pay depositors (not a 'there was fear they couldn't', but any evidence whatsoever they couldn't)

jimboston wrote:"Had they sold all investments immediately that would not make the difference as their losses would’ve been greater than the value of deposits."


False. They payed all depositors who withdraw on Friday, they were seized that Sunday. The Department of Financial Services in New York, which did the closing HAS NEVER SAID SIGNATURE WAS INSOLVENT (didn't believe this myself until i checked it), meaning no one has ever said their investments < value of deposits. Prove me wrong Jim, I want to be wrong here. Sadly, I've done the research and I'm not. Signature had better looking books than 70% of it's competitors at the time the feds seized it.

jimboston wrote:They were going out of business one way or another."

You took the words right out of Gary Gensler's mouth, sounds just like how Tony Soprano would say it.

The gov't wanted something to happen (close signature), and they made it happen(closed signature) but then they talk alot about something else that happened and get the media to focus on that story to distract from it (SVB).


Sorry… i misread your post. I thought we were still talking about SVB.
I misread Signature as. Silicone Valley. My bad.

I honestly haven’t giving this one much scrutiny. Perhaps I was duped/distracted by the other stuff happening.

Like the giant shit sandwich (Credit Swiss) that UBS ate around the same time.

What’s the “real reason” according to you? Cause they are tangentially involved in Crypto?
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Re: Is the Bitcoin bull run over?

Postby Dukasaur on Tue Mar 28, 2023 2:03 pm

Credit Suisse has had one scandal after another for 20 years now.

It really was only a matter of time.
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Re: Is the Bitcoin bull run over?

Postby mookiemcgee on Tue Mar 28, 2023 2:44 pm

jimboston wrote:
What’s the “real reason” according to you? Cause they are tangentially involved in Crypto?


Yup, that's what I've been saying in all these posts.

For the last few years (2-4) there was two banks (Signaure & Silvergate) doing virtually all of the settlement for crypto exchanges fiat side transactions. Crypto exchanges aren't banks, and while they hold digital assets on behalf of their customers when someone wants to deposit $1000 to coinbase from their personal bank account, the process is exponentially faster and maybe considered more secure by using large mainstream banks to settle and stand behind the transactions.


Signature had a side business called 'signet' was the leader in settling transactions for large centralized crypto exchanges (Coinbase and others) and the biggest 'innovation' was doing it 24/7 rather than just during banking hours m-f. This helped Coinbase (and other cex's) achieve real time settlement on deposits and withdrawls. Crypto trades 24/7 and with banks being closed on the weekends crypto exchanges basically (prior to products like this) took a long time to settle and never over the weekend. (you want to deposit $1000 to coinbase on Sat to buy BTC, you basically wouldn't get credited for the USD deposit until sometime on Monday/Tuesday and couldn't buy bitcoin til then, same thing with withdrawing $1000 from coinbase to your bank account).

The feds basically forced Silvergate to close up shop a few weeks prior to the seizure of Signature. I'm sure there are some smaller bank players, or maybe non-US banks that are getting tons of new business from this. These two banks were also the main settling layer for Circle (who manages USDC stable coin). It get a little hard to understand for the layman but if Coinbase sees 100m in withdrawls over a weekend (investors/individuals sell their USDC to actual USD) the settlement process is basically Coinbase sends 100m USDC to circle, and circle sends back 100m in USD to coinbase. Signature/silvergate were settling most of these transactions. This isn't to say exchanges like coinbase can't settle these type of transaction on their own, but using large mainstream banks gave them speed + legitimacy/appearance of safety/ ability for greater oversight for their customers and the gov't.

That's all very longwinded and is really just to explain how things were working behind the scenes and nothing to do with 'why' the gov't wanted them closed. The larger point is the regulators saw that there was a choke point. If they could close both these banks, it was cause serious issues in the crypto community and cause a panic (which it did for about 48h between the time of Silicon Valley bank being seized and the time of Biden's announcement that 'depositors will be made whole'.) I generally lean democrat but when it comes to crypto they are way more 'anti-crypto' than the right side of the aisle. Though frankly listening to actual congresspeople talking about crypto is like having your 80 year old father explain how the internet works. nails on chalkboard, they don't understand at all, they only understand it could be a threat to USD hegemony as reserve currency and the reaction is the attack it by any means.
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Re: Is the Bitcoin bull run over?

Postby mookiemcgee on Tue Mar 28, 2023 5:10 pm

I feel like maybe i digressed a bit in the post above so just to clarify.

Banks like Silvergate don't threaten USD hegemony (clearly feds can close/regulated banks with full autonomy)
Exchanges like Coinbase don't threaten USD hegemony (but Feds watch them closely as they are the chokepoint between fiat/crypto)
BTC threatens USD hegemony, and is very difficult for US feds to censor (Feds no likey the bitcoins)
Stable Coins are also a target, and they are much easier for the US feds to 'f*ck with' through actions like they took against silvergate/signature banks.
Silicon Valley bank has nothing to do with any of this.
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Re: Is the Bitcoin bull run over?

Postby jimboston on Wed Mar 29, 2023 9:14 am

IDK enough about this to comment intelligently.

I guess I could see the Fed wanting to control choke points… but don;t know how it would benefit them to limit/eliminate choke points.
i.e. it seems to be better to have major Crypto-Fiat Exchanges be US Banks… because then we could control things better, and track shit better, and maybe pull the plug in the future if there were a crisis. I don’t think it’s wise to do that now, and I think the people running the Fed and Banks are pretty smart generally… so I’m open to hearing other reasons.

I also don’t think Crypto is a viable option as a replacement for the US Dollar as the “Reserve Currency” of the world.
It’s not stable enough… fluctuates too much… and doesn’t have a long enough track record.
Perhaps “StableCoin” if it lives up to its’ name… but I don’t see it happening in the next 20+ years.

Maybe I’m wrong… but I don’t think so.

Yes investors and gamblers will take risks in Crypto… but Sovereign Banks aren;t going to put the majority of their holdings in Bitcoin.
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Re: Is the Bitcoin bull run over?

Postby mookiemcgee on Tue Jul 25, 2023 9:38 pm

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Re: Is the Bitcoin bull run over?

Postby mookiemcgee on Tue Aug 29, 2023 11:39 am

GBTC officially won their case against the SEC... Spot ETF coming, halvening is coming, winter is still here but the stars are starting to allign again for 2024/25 run
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Re: Is the Bitcoin bull run over?

Postby saxitoxin on Tue Aug 29, 2023 11:45 am

mookiemcgee wrote:GBTC officially won their case against the SEC... Spot ETF coming, halvening is coming, winter is still here but the stars are starting to allign again for 2024/25 run


It's gonna hafta go bonanza to make up what I've lost.
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Re: Is the Bitcoin bull run over?

Postby mookiemcgee on Tue Aug 29, 2023 1:07 pm

saxitoxin wrote:
mookiemcgee wrote:GBTC officially won their case against the SEC... Spot ETF coming, halvening is coming, winter is still here but the stars are starting to allign again for 2024/25 run


It's gonna hafta go bonanza to make up what I've lost.


Next 2-3 months is the time to lower your cost averages, sentiment is still very low in crypto circles.

Bonanza is the only way to know how to pump ser. 50% increase in price don't even get our dicks hard... 1000% or nothing (not Boomercoin or ETH but things like OP are going to $50 in the bullrun)
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Re: Is the Bitcoin bull run over?

Postby mookiemcgee on Tue Aug 29, 2023 5:49 pm

Wife changing money Saxi... that's what we are after. Join me on the darkside... buy HarryPotterObamaSonic10Inu (ticker : Bitcoin) and we will travel to Valhalla
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Re: Is the Bitcoin bull run over?

Postby Dukasaur on Tue Aug 29, 2023 6:06 pm

saxitoxin wrote:
mookiemcgee wrote:GBTC officially won their case against the SEC... Spot ETF coming, halvening is coming, winter is still here but the stars are starting to allign again for 2024/25 run


It's gonna hafta go bonanza to make up what I've lost.


+1
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Re: Is the Bitcoin bull run over?

Postby saxitoxin on Wed Aug 30, 2023 2:18 am

mookiemcgee wrote:
saxitoxin wrote:
mookiemcgee wrote:GBTC officially won their case against the SEC... Spot ETF coming, halvening is coming, winter is still here but the stars are starting to allign again for 2024/25 run


It's gonna hafta go bonanza to make up what I've lost.


Next 2-3 months is the time to lower your cost averages, sentiment is still very low in crypto circles.

Bonanza is the only way to know how to pump ser. 50% increase in price don't even get our dicks hard... 1000% or nothing (not Boomercoin or ETH but things like OP are going to $50 in the bullrun)


I could cut glass with my dick if it even went up 25%
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Re: Is the Bitcoin bull run over?

Postby mookiemcgee on Fri Dec 08, 2023 5:02 pm

saxitoxin wrote:
mookiemcgee wrote:
saxitoxin wrote:
mookiemcgee wrote:GBTC officially won their case against the SEC... Spot ETF coming, halvening is coming, winter is still here but the stars are starting to allign again for 2024/25 run


It's gonna hafta go bonanza to make up what I've lost.


Next 2-3 months is the time to lower your cost averages, sentiment is still very low in crypto circles.

Bonanza is the only way to know how to pump ser. 50% increase in price don't even get our dicks hard... 1000% or nothing (not Boomercoin or ETH but things like OP are going to $50 in the bullrun)


I could cut glass with my dick if it even went up 25%


We up well over 25% now saxi, are any glass objects in your home safe?
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Re: Is the Bitcoin bull run starting?

Postby TeeGee on Sat Dec 09, 2023 4:48 pm

Just ride the roller coaster

It's harder and more volatile than shares, but a lot of fun too
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Re: Is the Bitcoin bull run starting?

Postby mookiemcgee on Sun Dec 10, 2023 2:41 pm

TeeGee wrote:Just ride the roller coaster

It's harder and more volatile than shares, but a lot of fun too



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Re: Is the Bitcoin bull run starting?

Postby mookiemcgee on Mon Dec 11, 2023 1:22 pm

Bitcoin profitable days:

Total number of days BTC has existed: 4865

Total number of days in profit: 4600

% of days profitable: 94.6%

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Re: Is the Bitcoin bull run over?

Postby mookiemcgee on Wed Dec 27, 2023 3:16 pm

Aug 2022:
mookiemcgee wrote:
saxitoxin wrote:My new take on BTC is that it's no hedge against inflation or recession, it merely mirrors the markets more dramatically. During good times it does 10 times better, and during bad times it does 10 times worse. But it will never invert the markets.


Normies saying this is the ultimate buy signal.


Turns out this was awefully close to the bottom, BTC was trading around 19k.

Sept 2022:
Dukasaur wrote:Where's the bottoms?


You only missed calling the bottom by a month or so!


Aug 2023:
mookiemcgee wrote:GBTC officially won their case against the SEC... Spot ETF coming, halvening is coming, winter is still here but the stars are starting to allign again for 2024/25 run


mookiemcgee wrote: Next 2-3 months is the time to lower your cost averages, sentiment is still very low in crypto circles.
-Sol at $20 when i posted this, Eth at 1600, BTC at 25,000[/quote]

I'm pretty over this whole forum, bunch of boomers fighting in circles over who should control a tiny piece of land in a part of the world they have never been to and have no say in the politics of. Fighting over 'who right' in a part of the world that no longer matters to US sec/foreign policy. Meanwhile you fucktards entirely tune out the threads that contain a path to wife changing money and dynastic family wealth.

President Bukele gets it, his country is back into profit on their investments and is safer than it's been in a generation, while other countries across the americas are experiencing extreme currency devaluations and hyperinflation. You own country puts its economy on steroids giving tax breaks to billionaires and corporations and prints it way to 7% inflation and you still don't see the value in a currency that a fed chairman can't wake up one day and decide to double the supply of over a few years.

HFSP this holiday season

-Love Mookie McGee III
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Re: Is the Bitcoin bull run starting?

Postby saxitoxin on Wed Dec 27, 2023 3:37 pm

Gold bullion and the Swiss Franc (hit a decade high this morning) are soaring, too, now ... is this actually a boom for crypto or is something big about to happen and those in the know are trying to get out of dollars into anything else quick?
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Re: Is the Bitcoin bull run starting?

Postby mookiemcgee on Wed Dec 27, 2023 3:50 pm

Investors getting ahead/out of low risk pure USD parked interest bearing instruments, back into other assets (crypto, stocks... to a lesser degree metals). We had like 20 years of banks not really offering meaningful interest, to them offering 4.5-5% in some cases. The writing is on the wall that we probably already peaked on that front and it's going to drift back down so the big money is starting to frontrun this coming paradigm shift and get back into risk assets while their prices are still relatively low (In my opinion).
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Re: Is the Bitcoin bull run over?

Postby Dukasaur on Wed Dec 27, 2023 4:00 pm

mookiemcgee wrote:HFSP this holiday season

Have Fun Shedding Pounds?

Have Fun Sucking Penis?

Hold For Supreme Power?
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