AAFitz wrote:AAFitz wrote:BigBallinStalin wrote:AAFitz wrote:BigBallinStalin wrote:Regarding hate crime laws, we should be considering how responsive criminals are to additional jail time. Does adding on the risk of incurring 3-5 years really deter them more effectively, hardly at all, or not at all?
Great question. What do you think?
Well, from what I recall, there was this study which compared homicide rates between the UK and the US in terms of prison sentences. IIRC, the UK average sentence was 12 years for murder while the US was much higher (definitely greater than 12, probably around 18 or 20?), yet the either the homicide rates didn't differ greatly, or the UK was slightly better.
I don't remember how the study controlled for relevant variables, but if what I recall is true, then it seems that greater prison sentences don't really reduce crime--past 12 years or so.
But what about less serious crimes with their lesser prison times? I'm not sure, but it's very likely that more pertinent studies have been done regarding hate crime laws and effectiveness. I'd expect similar outcomes.
I think its possible that homicide is different than assault and battery though. When you commit homicide, I have to assume you are assuming your gone forever, and the idea of 6 years changing that couldnt possibly factor in. Also, its an average, and I doubt many people even know the average time served for homicide.
However, when you get into lesser crimes, you instinctively know you might serve a little time if nailed for assault and battery, but I suspect, many, not all, could very well be deterred from hate crime, at least in some cases, because it does have the publicized effect of making you know its more time. Again, I have to assume some group going out bashing a minority group isnt exactly reading the current average sentences, but absolutely have heard that hate crime is taken pretty seriously and know it comes with a stiffer sentence. I think the numbers would certainly be different than the homicide numbers, but how much so I guess remains to be seen. I also think the deterrent effect, would be more than TGD's suggested "hate crime increase" for notoriety. No doubt in some cases, he's right, but overall, I think the deterrent is more probable.
We can speculate ITT on many reasons as to what makes threat deterrence effective and ineffective, but it would be ideal to focus more on what we've learned. For example, When Brute Force Fails (PDF) discusses the more effective enforcement strategies while highlighting the problems of current laws and enforcement methods. An interesting point was that criminals don't properly assess their risk of being caught--which can lead them to greatly underestimate the costs of their criminal actions (in terms of prison sentences).
- Additionally, some criminals would vastly underestimate their chance of being caught after getting lucky for their first few crimes (recall that famous survey which asked people to estimate their intelligence as greater or less than the average person's. An overwhelming majority deemed their intelligence greater than the average person's. See also Dunning-Kruger effect and wiki on illusory superiority. In turn, prison sentences don't matter as much for many criminals. Besides, how often do juveniles estimate the long-term consequences of getting caught?
- Finally, one more interesting point was the effectiveness gained by bureaucrats (parole officers and what not) in bending the rules; whereas, for other objectives it was very counter-productive. It's been years since I've read the book, so I can't be much clearer on this point, but it's worth mentioning the how much the degree of strict rule-following matters.
Peter Moskos' Cop in the Hood -- My Year Policing Baltimore's Eastern District is another good read on enforcement techniques. In short, he finds that simply having more police on the street allows them to tap more readily into the local knowledge, thus enabling them to more effectively resolve problems (as opposed to throwing people in prison, which really doesn't fix much). There's also the inherently ineffective culture created by the 9-11 response system. Cops typically do not want to approach a violent scene until the criminals have left (thus an incentive to delay--even for a few minutes, and it's worth it). Cruising in cars doesn't lend oneself to being readily approachable and connected with the community one 'serves'. Although it's a one-year study focused on Eastern Baltimore, it contains lessons which are more widely applicable.
Then there's his more provocative book, In Defense of Flogging (short article, another one), which I have yet to read, but the short articles are worth the read. They pose possibly better solutions, and although the topic may seem appalling, we should stop to consider that we live in a 'humane' society which instead cages people for years while taxing the rest.
Either way, it'll come down to the empirical studies, which might not clearly settle it; however, it's better than us hand waving, and it's better than us being fixated on one variable: imprisonment. My main concern is that regardless of the scientific findings, there would still be a large push against removing hate crime laws. Any politician who tries to will be (mis)labelled as racist/sexist/genderist, and it's not like the voting public would actually spend additional resources to learn more deeply about these issues since (1) the voting public is largely split on many desired political goals--each requiring a different amount of their attention/knowledge, and (2) some objectives are more important than others--e.g. some people value more time at work and with their family then spending more time studying.
In short, the constraints of emotional reasoning and ignorance will largely remain, and since that is the case, it makes even more sense to insist on a limited federal government, so that States and municipalities can have a larger role in public policies within a more competitive, innovative, and locally informed environment.