Pulp Fiction Mafia CULT WINS!!!

by **Vincent M** on Tue Mar 27, 2007 1:07 pm

Well any ideas guys I am all ears

by **Selin** on Tue Mar 27, 2007 2:58 pm

we are 16.
what are the probabilities to lynch a townie / mafia for combinations 14/2, 13/3 and 12/4?

by **everywhere116** on Tue Mar 27, 2007 3:06 pm

87.5%, 81.25%, and 75% respectfully.

by **Aimless** on Tue Mar 27, 2007 4:22 pm

Vincent M wrote:I dont think voting this early is a good thing. Use your Brains and examine. I don't want to be lynching towies because of Stupidity

A random vote has a slight probability of killing a mafia on day one. Furthermore, the vote record is information, and without information, this game is lost.

On the other hand, unless there are some strange roles in this game, the probability that the mafia kills itself is zero. Therefore, the town cannot win by voting no lynch. Even if the vote on day one is random, it's better than not voting at all.

by **mandalorian2298** on Tue Mar 27, 2007 4:23 pm

vote spiesr for the No lynch bullshit.
Fos unriggable for not unvoting

by **Selin** on Tue Mar 27, 2007 4:33 pm

Aimless wrote:
Vincent M wrote:I dont think voting this early is a good thing. Use your Brains and examine. I don't want to be lynching towies because of Stupidity

A random vote has a slight probability of killing a mafia on day one. Furthermore, the vote record is information, and without information, this game is lost.

On the other hand, unless there are some strange roles in this game, the probability that the mafia kills itself is zero. Therefore, the town cannot win by voting no lynch. Even if the vote on day one is random, it's better than not voting at all.

hmmm. interesting.
if we lynch someone pure randomly without having a suspicion, that can only help mafia, because in 4 out of 5 cases a townie will be killed. that means those who are for voting randomly, are highly probable from mafia.

that post doesn't seem to me "aimless" :!:

FOS aimless

by **Selin** on Tue Mar 27, 2007 4:35 pm

aimless,

how many mafia games have you played before?

by **everywhere116** on Tue Mar 27, 2007 4:37 pm

Selin wrote:
Aimless wrote:
Vincent M wrote:I dont think voting this early is a good thing. Use your Brains and examine. I don't want to be lynching towies because of Stupidity

A random vote has a slight probability of killing a mafia on day one. Furthermore, the vote record is information, and without information, this game is lost.

On the other hand, unless there are some strange roles in this game, the probability that the mafia kills itself is zero. Therefore, the town cannot win by voting no lynch. Even if the vote on day one is random, it's better than not voting at all.

hmmm. interesting.
if we lynch someone pure randomly without having a suspicion, that can only help mafia, because in 4 out of 5 cases a townie will be killed. that means those who are for voting randomly, are highly probable from mafia.

that post doesn't seem to me "aimless"

FOS aimless

I am not saying that we lynch a random person. We lynch the most suspicious. We always lynch someone. Even if it was town, we will see who voted for him, because most likely mafia are in there. Mafia also like to bandwagon.

by **pancakemix** on Tue Mar 27, 2007 4:38 pm

If a townie does get killed, then we can eliminate bandwagoners the next day, so the random lynch does have some logic to it.

by **Aimless** on Tue Mar 27, 2007 4:44 pm

Selin wrote:hmmm. interesting.
if we lynch someone pure randomly without having a suspicion, that can only help mafia, because in 4 out of 5 cases a townie will be killed. that means those who are for voting randomly, are highly probable from mafia.

that post doesn't seem to me "aimless"

FOS aimless

You are looking at this the wrong way.

First, if the town votes completely at random, then on any given day the odds are bad, but if you look at the composite odds across the entire game, they are actually rather good that we will get at least one mafia. (With sixteen players, assuming three mafia, if the town is always wrong the game will last 5 days, assuming no SK or extra killing role. Thus, the odds that the town is wrong every time is 13/16*11/14*9/12*7/10*5/8 = 0.209. So, voting at random, the town has a 79% chance of nailing at least one mafia in the first five days. Not shabby. The odds for four mafia are similar.)

But, more importantly, one of the best tells in this game is the voting record. If no one ever votes, for fear of voting off a mafia, the mafia will win. And, if no one votes on day one, we have no information to work with on day two and are right back to where we started.

by **pancakemix** on Tue Mar 27, 2007 4:46 pm

FOS aimless for being too smart :wink:

by **Aimless** on Tue Mar 27, 2007 4:47 pm

Selin wrote:aimless,

how many mafia games have you played before?

Not that many. This is my 4th game at this site, and I've played a few before elsewhere.

I know the general principles involved, though.

by **Selin** on Tue Mar 27, 2007 4:48 pm

what does bandwagon mean?

by **unriggable** on Tue Mar 27, 2007 4:50 pm

Hmm, wise words Aimless...

by **everywhere116** on Tue Mar 27, 2007 4:53 pm

Selin wrote:what does bandwagon mean?

When praticaly everyone votes for the same person, normally in a short period of time?

by **spiesr** on Tue Mar 27, 2007 4:59 pm

UNOVTE
VOTE mandalorian2298 for bandwagoning

by **unriggable** on Tue Mar 27, 2007 5:43 pm

spiesr wrote:UNOVTE
VOTE mandalorian2298 for bandwagoning

Give us a detailed reason, until then, FOS spiesr

by **spiesr** on Tue Mar 27, 2007 6:02 pm

unriggable wrote:
spiesr wrote:UNOVTE
VOTE mandalorian2298 for bandwagoning

Give us a detailed reason, until then, FOS spiesr

After spiesr gets a couple of vote, mandalorian2298 posts this:

mandalorian2298 wrote:vote spiesr for the No lynch bullshit.
Fos unriggable for not unvoting

by **Colaalone** on Tue Mar 27, 2007 6:21 pm

VOTE COUNT
Spieser (3) [derfderf34, mandalorian2298, unriggable]
mandalorian2298 (1) [Spieser]
unriggable (1) [pancakemix]

With 16 alive it takes 9 to lynch