saxitoxin wrote:SCIENCE FACT 1: A 35 year-old 5'10" 160 lbs non-smoking white male living in New York with no preexisting conditions has a chance of dying from COVID-19 of about 1-in-3,000,000 in the next year. [https://covid19risktools.com:8443/riskcalculator]
That is likely correct. Three major problems with it.
Problem one is that you've cherry-picked the healthiest slice of the population. Of course under-35s have the lowest chance of dying. When you're under 35 (and especially when you're in that magical age between 15 and 30) you survive most things at a much higher rate than older people. No guff. Only 36% of Americans are under 35. (
link) Of those 24% are prediabetic (
link) and 10% are full-blown diabetic (
link). Another 10% smoke (
link) and another 7% are asthmatic (
link). Those probably aren't fully summable (there's probably a lot of overlap) but on the other hand it's not an exhaustive link of pre-existing conditions, either. I think it's a safe bet that a third of your under-35s have some kind of pre-existing condition. So even in your cherry-picked age group, there are a lot of people with risk factors that elevate their risk. I'd wager that after all is said and done, only something like 20% of the population can be as cocky as your exemplar.
Problem two is that you keep talking about death as if that was the only possible negative outcome. A serious illness is a bad thing. Only about 3% of covid patients worldwide have died, but 10% have had non-lethal but serious long-term health effects. (
link) Even among those with no underlying health conditions, 7% required hospitalization (
link) (The number goes up to a staggering 40% of those with serious pre-existing conditions.) Even if you have a relatively mild case, being sick at home and feeling like shit for two weeks is worse than NOT being sick at home and feeling like shit for two weeks. There is absolutely no upside to having this illness.
Problem three, of course, is social. Unless you came from outer space, you probably have a dad with severe hypertension or a grandma with emphysema. Even if you have a completely asymptomatic case with no ill effects for yourself, you could pass along a lethal dose of the disease to them. Being vaccinated reduces your chance of transmitting the disease to others by half. (
link)
saxitoxin wrote:SCIENCE FACT 3: There is no (read: zero) long-term safety data about mRNA-based vaccines used on humans. None. Zero. No such vaccine had ever been used on a human until eight months ago. They are probably safe, however, there is no real-world data.
There's no theoretical reason to assume any long-term effects. Risks from vaccines are always short-term: the possibility of a serious, immediate adverse reaction. We have enough data now to know with great precision the (extremely low) incidence of adverse reactions.
saxitoxin wrote:SCIENCE FACT 4: The Delta variant is more transmissable but not more lethal than the Alpha variant. This is the normal course of all viruses - they become more contagious and less pathogenic over time, as the virus adjusts to ensure its own survival. The Zeta variant will probably be more transmissable and less lethal than Delta. [https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/why-is-delta-more-infectious-and-deadly-new-research-holds-answers]
Again, you're ignoring the fact that death is not the only unpleasant outcome of being ill. Even a relatively mild case is something to be avoided. A more severe case can put you in bed for a month, or in the hospital, or in the ICU. It can lead to permanent loss of lung capacity or other severe-but-non-lethal health effects.
Yes. But, you see, we don't practice that here....
