coronavirus - The Legacy

[saxitoxin]

It's always appreciated how only the American Leader is willing to be honest and forthcoming with fatality projections. The rulers of Europe - the actual death toll leader - are grimly silent about what lays in store for the future except vague predictions of collapse, chaos and despair ...

밀키와 복이MilkyBoki has 900,000 subscribers and, frankly, is more credible than rando little YouTube conspiracy theory / ranting at Trump channel

[Dukasaur]

It's always appreciated how only the American Leader is willing to be honest and forthcoming with fatality projections. The rulers of Europe - the actual death toll leader - are grimly silent about what lays in store for the future except vague predictions of collapse, chaos and despair ...

밀키와 복이MilkyBoki has 900,000 subscribers and, frankly, is more credible than rando little YouTube conspiracy theory / ranting at Trump channel

No ranting involved. All direct quotes from your master.

[saxitoxin]

Update: Europe's Grim Death Toll Ticks Higher /// America Remains Arc of the West - Death Toll Low and Supplies Plentiful - Thanks to Trump

☠ European Union: 31,845 dead ... 72 dead per million people

☠ Non-EU Europe; UK, CH, SM, NO: 2,888 dead ... 39 dead per million people

☼United States: 4,059 dead ... 12 dead per million people*

*More people have died of influenza in the U.S. in the last 12 months (20 per MM) than have died of COVID-19 (12 per MM) in the last 12 months

[jimboston]

‘China might be under-reporting numbers, my evidence for this is that it’s China’.

Read the rest of the thread dude. The reason it’s spreading way less quickly in China, Korea, Singapore etc is that they took better preemptive measures, faster. China’s initial response was delayed by officials in Wuhan who downplayed/didn’t realise what was happening, but once the central government got involved it reacted fast.

Given that COVID first spread in China, then to other countries in the region, and spread rapidly, the idea that Chinese or East Asian people are somehow immune should self-evidently be nonsense.

It’s funny...I got Maxleod calling me an idiot because “there are a bunch of urns so China’s clearly underreporting” then a minute later I got you calling me out because there’s ‘no evidence’ and ‘why would I think China would lie about anything’. So I’m getting criticized by both sides.

Meanwhile I said neither... I said “it’s possible” (because I’ve seen places claiming it); I said “hopefully it’s not true” (because that’s how I feel); and then I criticized the sources that I had read at that time.

I also acknowledged that the ‘lockdown’ (i.e. social distancing measures) that China has taken; and lament (praise?) the fact that ‘the West’ can’t do the same. I acknowledged/recognized the possibility that this is the biggest factor.

Regarding “immunity’... do you know how to read?... I mention the spread of prior Covid diseases, like SARs, which scientists speculate MAY provide a level of immunity to people who have been exposed to those other diseases. If you have this exposure you could still get and pass the Novel Covid, but you MAY be less likely to get seriously ill or die. I’m NOT talking about exposure to this Novel Covid-19... but exposure to other Covid viruses, which includes SARs, MERs, and several others that have minor symptoms.

Overall my post was pretty balanced and well thought out (if I say so myself), and I’m pretty clear with my words, and say things like “possibly” and “maybe” we’re there is speculation.

[jimboston]

*More people have died of influenza in the U.S. in the last 12 months (20 per MM) than have died of COVID-19 (12 per MM) in the last 12 months

You realize comparing a 12 month period is ridiculous when we’ve only started having deaths here in the past month.

Even based on the new LOW END estimates for US Deaths at 100,000... our per MM number will crush the Flu number.

100,000 people dead... divided by 327million...

That’s over 305 dead per million people!

... also where are you getting your flu numbers?

They don’t have final stats for this flu season.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/pr ... imates.htm

I don’t think your numbers are right...

https://www.13abc.com/content/news/US-f ... 73701.html

22K deaths is about 67 per million.

[saxitoxin]

*More people have died of influenza in the U.S. in the last 12 months (20 per MM) than have died of COVID-19 (12 per MM) in the last 12 months

You realize comparing a 12 month period is ridiculous when we’ve only started having deaths here in the past month.

No, I don't realize that. Ninety-percent of flu deaths are concentrated in a four-month period (January to March), they're not equally spread over twelve months.

[jimboston]

*More people have died of influenza in the U.S. in the last 12 months (20 per MM) than have died of COVID-19 (12 per MM) in the last 12 months

You realize comparing a 12 month period is ridiculous when we’ve only started having deaths here in the past month.

No, I don't realize that. Ninety-percent of flu deaths are concentrated in a four-month period (January to March), they're not equally spread over twelve months.

If you don’t realize that you’re an idiot.

Since I know you aren’t an idiot I presume you are lying.

... also Jan-March is a 3 month period, not a 4 month period.

Even if you wanted to compare just the high period for Flu... the first isolated case in the US was January 19th... whereas the Flu was already in circulation... so it’s still not a valid comparison.

Nice how you ignore the other numbers that don’t suit your narrative.

[mrswdk]

Meanwhile I said neither... I said “it’s possible” (because I’ve seen places claiming it); I said “hopefully it’s not true” (because that’s how I feel); and then I criticized the sources that I had read at that time.

I also acknowledged that the ‘lockdown’ (i.e. social distancing measures) that China has taken; and lament (praise?) the fact that ‘the West’ can’t do the same. I acknowledged/recognized the possibility that this is the biggest factor.

Oh, so you're just knowingly spreading unverified theories/fake news even though you're well aware there are way more convincing explanations out there. Got it.

It's okay though because you put the word 'maybe' in front of it.

Given that COVID first spread in China, then to other countries in the region, and spread rapidly, the idea that Chinese or East Asian people are somehow immune should self-evidently be nonsense.

I mention the spread of prior Covid diseases, like SARs, which scientists speculate MAY provide a level of immunity to people who have been exposed to those other diseases. If you have this exposure you could still get and pass the Novel Covid, but you MAY be less likely to get seriously ill or die.

Someone who is immune to a disease cannot carry it. If you are immune that means that antibodies in your blood kill it when they come into contact with it. Some people can carry and transmit COVID-19 without developing any symptoms but they are not immune, just asymptomatic. It has nothing to do with being immune because they previously got SARS.

In any case, SARS infected about 8,000 people total around the world, MERS significantly less.

[Dukasaur]

Given that COVID first spread in China, then to other countries in the region, and spread rapidly, the idea that Chinese or East Asian people are somehow immune should self-evidently be nonsense.

I mention the spread of prior Covid diseases, like SARs, which scientists speculate MAY provide a level of immunity to people who have been exposed to those other diseases. If you have this exposure you could still get and pass the Novel Covid, but you MAY be less likely to get seriously ill or die.

Someone who is immune to a disease cannot carry it. If you are immune that means that antibodies in your blood kill it when they come into contact with it. Some people can carry and transmit COVID-19 without developing any symptoms but they are not immune, just asymptomatic. It has nothing to do with being immune because they previously got SARS.

What you say would be true if immunity was an absolute Either/Or gate. But it isn't. Susceptibility runs the gamut from being wide open to infection, through various levels of "resistance", "partial immunity", "leaky immunity", all the way to total and absolute immunity.

Certainly with influenza we see that infection with one strain often results in partial immunity to other strains. We don't know yet, but I wouldn't be surprised if we found something similar with different strains in the SARS family.

[jimboston]

Meanwhile I said neither... I said “it’s possible” (because I’ve seen places claiming it); I said “hopefully it’s not true” (because that’s how I feel); and then I criticized the sources that I had read at that time.

I also acknowledged that the ‘lockdown’ (i.e. social distancing measures) that China has taken; and lament (praise?) the fact that ‘the West’ can’t do the same. I acknowledged/recognized the possibility that this is the biggest factor.

Oh, so you're just knowingly spreading unverified theories/fake news even though you're well aware there are way more convincing explanations out there. Got it.

It's okay though because you put the word 'maybe' in front of it.

Given that COVID first spread in China, then to other countries in the region, and spread rapidly, the idea that Chinese or East Asian people are somehow immune should self-evidently be nonsense.

I mention the spread of prior Covid diseases, like SARs, which scientists speculate MAY provide a level of immunity to people who have been exposed to those other diseases. If you have this exposure you could still get and pass the Novel Covid, but you MAY be less likely to get seriously ill or die.

Someone who is immune to a disease cannot carry it. If you are immune that means that antibodies in your blood kill it when they come into contact with it. Some people can carry and transmit COVID-19 without developing any symptoms but they are not immune, just asymptomatic. It has nothing to do with being immune because they previously got SARS.

In any case, SARS infected about 8,000 people total around the world, MERS significantly less.

Read what I wrote.

If you want to criticize me fine, but pick something worthy of criticism please.
I’m sure there are things you can find somewhere.

[jimboston]

Given that COVID first spread in China, then to other countries in the region, and spread rapidly, the idea that Chinese or East Asian people are somehow immune should self-evidently be nonsense.

I mention the spread of prior Covid diseases, like SARs, which scientists speculate MAY provide a level of immunity to people who have been exposed to those other diseases. If you have this exposure you could still get and pass the Novel Covid, but you MAY be less likely to get seriously ill or die.

Someone who is immune to a disease cannot carry it. If you are immune that means that antibodies in your blood kill it when they come into contact with it. Some people can carry and transmit COVID-19 without developing any symptoms but they are not immune, just asymptomatic. It has nothing to do with being immune because they previously got SARS.

What you say would be true if immunity was an absolute Either/Or gate. But it isn't. Susceptibility runs the gamut from being wide open to infection, through various levels of "resistance", "partial immunity", "leaky immunity", all the way to total and absolute immunity.

Certainly with influenza we see that infection with one strain often results in partial immunity to other strains. We don't know yet, but I wouldn't be surprised if we found something similar with different strains in the SARS family.

Thank you.

Though I would bet mrswdk knows this... but somehow feels the need to attack me.

I’m partially convinced that mrswdk and saxi are multis... very elaborate, in that they even post on each others boards and have this fake conversation.

It just seems like anytime someone points out how Saxi ignores facts, mrswdk then attacks and distracts that person.

That’s my current theory.

[Keefie]

China have massively under reported the number of deaths. Realistic figures for Wuhan City alone are 40 to 50,000 dead.

[mrswdk]

Given that COVID first spread in China, then to other countries in the region, and spread rapidly, the idea that Chinese or East Asian people are somehow immune should self-evidently be nonsense.

I mention the spread of prior Covid diseases, like SARs, which scientists speculate MAY provide a level of immunity to people who have been exposed to those other diseases. If you have this exposure you could still get and pass the Novel Covid, but you MAY be less likely to get seriously ill or die.

Someone who is immune to a disease cannot carry it. If you are immune that means that antibodies in your blood kill it when they come into contact with it. Some people can carry and transmit COVID-19 without developing any symptoms but they are not immune, just asymptomatic. It has nothing to do with being immune because they previously got SARS.

What you say would be true if immunity was an absolute Either/Or gate. But it isn't. Susceptibility runs the gamut from being wide open to infection, through various levels of "resistance", "partial immunity", "leaky immunity", all the way to total and absolute immunity.

I think you're mixing up some different terms there:

• Immunity is resistance to a disease.
• Partial immunity is where someone still gets symptoms from the disease, but they are milder than they would otherwise be.
• Leaky immunity is when a population has partial immunity.
• Resistance is a synonym for immunity, albeit one that is generally used for plants rather than animals. When people use it in relation to humans they are presumably generally talking about partial immunity.

So really, when it comes to COVID-19 people can be one of three things: immune; partially immune; susceptible. The only way to become immune to COVID-19 would be to catch and then recover from COVID-19, so anyone who has not previously had COVID-19 is capable of contracting and spreading COVID-19 to other people. So talking about the 8,000 people who had SARS becoming partially immune to COVID-19 and therefore East Asian populations spread COVID-19 less rapidly makes no sense. Not least because COVID-19 spread just as quickly in China, Korea etc. as it has in Europe and elsewhere.

[kizkiz]

I haven't read the whole thread, so apologies if this has already been said.
All these comparisons to dead from flu etc are just irrelevant.
Flu for instance, we can get a jab, and plenty have immunity.
Covid has neither.
The only numbers you need to know are all guesstimate, but...
World population 7.9 billion. Ish
80% infection rate if everybody did nothing 6.3 billion
1% death rate on average, across the whole world equals 63 million dead.
That is why it is serious
There is no immunity and nothing to stop it spreading

[Keefie]

Pence: 'US model looks like Italy'

Based on White House project models, the US appears to be on track to see a coronavirus impact similar to Italy's, says Vice-President Mike Pence

"We think Italy may be the most comparable area to the United States at this point for a variety of reasons,” Mr Pence told CNN on Wednesday.

If not for the mitigation measures already being implemented, millions of Americans would have died, rather than the 100,000 to 240,000 currently forecast, he says.

"Our message yesterday, our message over the next 30 days, is the future is in our hands,” says Mr Pence.

[saxitoxin]

If not for the mitigation measures already being implemented, millions of Americans would have died, rather than the 100,000 to 240,000 currently forecast, he says.

An important reminder from the Vice-President - thank you for sharing! A majority of Americans appreciate Trump is the Leader and took decisive early mitigation measures, such as closing our borders with China while Europe followed WHO's advice and left theirs open.

[jimboston]

I think you're mixing up some different terms there:

• Immunity is resistance to a disease.
• Partial immunity is where someone still gets symptoms from the disease, but they are milder than they would otherwise be.
• Leaky immunity is when a population has partial immunity.
• Resistance is a synonym for immunity, albeit one that is generally used for plants rather than animals. When people use it in relation to humans they are presumably generally talking about partial immunity.

So really, when it comes to COVID-19 people can be one of three things: immune; partially immune; susceptible. The only way to become immune to COVID-19 would be to catch and then recover from COVID-19, so anyone who has not previously had COVID-19 is capable of contracting and spreading COVID-19 to other people. So talking about the 8,000 people who had SARS becoming partially immune to COVID-19 and therefore East Asian populations spread COVID-19 less rapidly makes no sense. Not least because COVID-19 spread just as quickly in China, Korea etc. as it has in Europe and elsewhere.

So this is what I originally typed...

“There is speculation that exposure to other genetically similar Covid viruses may give people in that part of the world some immunity compared to people from other parts of the world.”

Now you. are using more proper scientific terms... great... I. didn’t;t know we were writing scientific white papers and that my shorthand use of colloquial terms would be bashed.

Don’t you think, for a game site “long haired flying dog forum” me saying “exposure to genetically similar viruses” and “some immunity” is sufficiently correct enough? Isn’t “some immunity” basically the same as saying “partial immunity” and/or “resistance”?

I think for the purposes of this forum, being that it’s not published in a scientific journal, my shorthand is fine.

So now you agree with me. Cool. Apology accepted.

[mrswdk]

Isn’t “some immunity” basically the same as saying “partial immunity” and/or “resistance”?

It is. Regardless of which of those terms you chose to use you were still wrong.

[jimboston]

Isn’t “some immunity” basically the same as saying “partial immunity” and/or “resistance”?

It is. Regardless of which of those terms you chose to use you were still wrong.

How so?

You are selecting one sentence, which isn’t even wrong, and ignoring how it’s related to the rest of what I wrote.

saxi...you’re an ass

How come you. and Saxi are always posting around the same time?

[mrswdk]

Pence: 'US model looks like Italy'

What's funny is that even as it becomes clear that the approaches taken in Europe and US are screw-ups compared to those taken in East Asia, people in Europe/the US are still ragging on about how they think the East Asian response is totalitarian.

Like at the moment the UK Government is trying to develop an app that can be used to track COVID-19 patients in the same way as the COVID-19 apps developed in Korea and Taiwan, and all people here can say is 'herp herp but what if the government tries to spy on me?'.

Like a) if you think the government has nothing better than to monitor your walks to the supermarket in real time then you are mistaken, b) why do you even care if they do?, and c) I hope you're happy letting an extra 1,000 old people die just because you 'feel a bit iffy about downloading a tracking app'.

But hey, freedom woo. Looks like Western governments really screwed themselves with all those decades of Cold War brainwashing.

[mrswdk]

Isn’t “some immunity” basically the same as saying “partial immunity” and/or “resistance”?

It is. Regardless of which of those terms you chose to use you were still wrong.

How so?

You are selecting one sentence, which isn’t even wrong, and ignoring how it’s related to the rest of what I wrote.

saxi...you’re an ass

How come you. and Saxi are always posting around the same time?

It doesn't matter whether you say 'some immunity', 'partial immunity', 'resistance' or any other synonym you can think of, someone being any of the above has no impact on their capacity to carry and transmit COVID-19.

[saxitoxin]

Grim new death tallies underscore the faultiness of Europe's early decision-making. Since yesterday the top three nations worldwide for newly reported deaths ...

☠ Italy - 727
☠ Spain - 589
☠ UK - 563

In WWII the U.S. removed some European art treasures to the United States for safekeeping at the Smithsonian Institution. Should we evacuate some Europeans to the Smithsonian before that race goes extinct? It may be important to preserve a viable breeding population we can use to repopulate Europe later.

[Lootifer]

☠ USA - 912
☠ Italy - 837
☠ Spain - 748
☠ UK - 381

US death rate blitzs' past EU death rates - has the end come for the US of A?

edit: I fixed up your daily values Saxi, seems your old befuddled brain couldn't undertsand the numbers on world meters - they update more, or sometimes less, than daily due to the varied information sources.

edit2: wait I was confused, I think worldmeters updates live, and resets figures daily, therefore the new cases/deaths numbers are never complete until just before daily reset...

[saxitoxin]

I was confused

[Lootifer]

I am often confused, stupid and plain wrong.