by Fruitcake on Wed May 09, 2012 9:59 am
From my point of view I should point out that I have a vested interest in seeing the slow and inexorable slide in the value of the Euro. I have been making hay on this for some time now (ever since every one – including a couple here – said the mighty Euro would never slide in value when it was around €1.12/£1 as against a present €1.24/£1)
Pop back a few years and review. Various European Govts have tried, however ineffectually, to tackle the debt crisis. What is now happening, is that countries are seeing voters demanding precisely the high-tax and high-spend policies which caused the recession in the first place.
What has happened in France and Greece is the start of what will be many advances by the populist left. In both places, candidates were elbowing each other aside during the campaign to demand more intervention and an end to cuts.
In the UK we haven’t seen an unapologetic Socialist like François Hollande for nigh on 30 years. He has stated openly he wants wealth taxes, stimulus spending and a massive expansion of the state payroll. What no one has asked is whether or not, this is what got the situation to where it is today in the first place! But dear old Hollande isn’t stupid, he knows this will create uncertainty in the markets and perhaps create further downgrades in credit rating...so his answer is....(roll of drums) he will create a French credit ratings agency which, unlike the American ones, will tell him what he wants to hear....Great stuff! And how so typically Gallic.
His program is summarised as growth, not austerity’...righty ho. That’ll all be fine then. Truth be told, France is pretty much in the shitter anyway. The Govt accounts for a huge 56% of the economy and the country last balanced it’s budget in 1974! (Some time before many of you were born I’ll be bound). On his logic, France should be the wealthiest country in Europe!
I was fascinated that during their campaigns, not one of the candidates ever mentioned smaller Govt. Even Sarko (he of the challenged height) promised to make France ‘stronger than the markets’ by using Government funds....whatever that means??? (Always remember...Markets break Governments, not the other way round)Indeed, all 10 candidates offered more of the same medicine that has made this situation what it is today. It was the same in Greece.
In summary, any Politician who cries out ‘Make the rich pay!’ has the advantage over one who says (truthfully), ‘The rich don’t have anything like enough to pay for all the things that the government is doing, so we need to make savings’.
The Europeans who find themselves in this position should stop fooling themselves. There is too much debt, simple. In order to fund their growth, governments squeezed the private sector for all it was worth. When they exhausted its capacity, they started to tax future generations through borrowing. Sooner or later, of course, the money was bound to run out.
With the banking collapse 4 years ago, the moment of truth finally appeared close up and personal. So what did they do....well Govts responded by accelerating all the policies which brought them here in the first place: more regulation, more debt, more Brussels intervention.
As the overall economy deteriorates, voters feel angry and betrayed. They listen sympathetically to anyone who will say: ‘The bankers caused this mess: make them pay!’ Why wouldn’t they??? After all, they know no better, successive tinkering with education has left most classes unable to understand the macro economics I was taught as standard when I was at school....and it is obvious now, why these Govts did tinker...think about it.
Due to current economic conditions the light at the end of the tunnel has been turned off