Why inflation may be worse than you think it is

[JdeV 100]

Done! Phew.

[HitRed]

https://www.cato.org/commentary/monetar ... verflowing

Cato Institute

[jusplay4fun]

If we want MORE proof that President Biden is worried about the inflation that HE CAUSED, let us look at his latest "BRILLIANT" economic idea.

1) Realize that energy costs are fundamental to the entire economy.

2) What does Biden do on DAY ONE of his Administration? Sign and executive order (among MANY) to shut off the XL Pipeline.

3) What is that impact of that action? Rising prices for Oil and gasoline.

4) What does he HOPE to achieve by tapping into the Strategic Oil Reserve to Release 50 Million barrels of oil?

5) To reduce prices and EASE the IMPACT of his INFLATIONARY actions (by limiting supply) when demand for oil ramps up due to lifting of restrictions on travel and economic activity.

6) Will this work? MAYBE, in the SHORT RUN. Will 50 Million barrels of oil make a significant difference? NO LIKELY in the Long Run.

7) 50 Million barrels of oil is what the US uses in about 2 - 2.5 days. Enjoy the lower gasoline prices for a FEW DAYS (i.e., in the SHORT term).

8 ) STOOPID Democratic actions put more GASOLINE on an inflationary fire caused by Government spending to ease the economic impact of Government imposed shut downs.

9) THANKS, Biden. You made inflation WORSE.

10) Now you want to SPEND even MORE and cause more INFLATION.

11) STOOOOPID Democrats know only one solution to problems. Take more money from me and throw it as PORK in Government Programs.

12) Here is their basic premise: Let me BORROW money so that my children and grandchildren can deal with a HUGE CRISES of Budget due to paying INTEREST on the LOANS done now to buy votes (and modestly help a few people).

13) Realize that money BORROWED today has to be paid back with interest payments LATER.

14) And NOTE that the payment of DEBT Services (i.e., interest payments) take a HUGE amount (about 10% the last time I read about this about 2 months ago) of the Federal Budget NOW. That amount will likely INCREASE and SOON, too.

15) I am rather sure that I posted that and that Mookie did not quote that.

16) Bi-partisan measures were passed (under President Trump's Administration) to ease impacts of COVID and economic Shut downs. Democrats continue to spend money in a crises mode even as the economic impact subsides.

17) Hence Democrats "Throw Gasoline" (that we have in short supply) onto the "fires of INFLATION" and making that WORSE. {This is my own statement and I did not get that from a right wing website. I do not even read that type of GARBAGE.}

18) Note that when I talk about Debt Service, I do not even discuss paying on the PRINCIPAL, only on the Interest payments.

19) I did not see where Mookie addressed the ISSUE of AOC and her STOOOPIDITY of the 3 branches of the Federal Government. Hence, STOOPID Democrats, and YES, she is NOT the ONLY ONE, just the one of the more egregious examples of such stupidity and ignorance.

20) One more example of STOOOPID Democratic Economic ideas. The unemployment benefits last some 52 weeks. The Democrats in Congress, in about 2017 or so, wanted to extend such benefits to 100 WEEKS, almost 2 years before benefits ran out and ENCOURAGED people to actually GET A JOB. Fortunately that OVERLY Generous (even WASTEFUL) measure did not pass and did not become LAW and Policy.

21) Unlike California, voters in Virginia rejected Liberal Democrats who come in and SPEND big MONEY to lose a campaign for Governor and other state-wide offices. I have addressed that ISSUE as well in previous posts.

22) There is NO clear way to identify which actions caused a definite amount of inflation. As also addressed by me, the US Economy cannot be put in a laboratory to determine REAL and ACTUAL cause and effect. People can speculate all they want, but most voters BLAME Biden, rightly or not.

23) JUST like Trump got the Blame for mismanaging the COVID crises, even though almost NO ONE gives him CREDIT for getting the COVID vaccines passed in record time (Operation Warp Speed). saxi won't touch that.

24) GO, M-J

References:

#1 President Biden to release Oil from the Strategic Reserve:

Summary
OPEC+ has rebuffed repeated U.S. calls for more crude
Biden under political pressure as inflation picks up
OPEC+ meets on Dec. 2 but no sign of a change of tack
India, Britain detail contributions to oil release

WASHINGTON, Nov 23 (Reuters) - The administration of U.S. President Joe Biden announced on Tuesday it will release millions of barrels of oil from strategic reserves in coordination with China, India, South Korea, Japan and Britain, to try to cool prices after OPEC+ producers repeatedly ignored calls for more crude.

Biden, facing low approval ratings amid rising inflation ahead of next year's congressional elections, has grown frustrated at repeatedly asking the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, to pump more oil without any response.

Crude oil prices recently touched seven-year highs, and consumers are feeling the pain of the increase in fuel costs. Retail gasoline prices are up more than 60% in the last year, the fastest rate of increase since 2000, largely because people have returned to the roads as pandemic-induced restrictions have eased and demand has rebounded.

Under the plan, the United States will release 50 million barrels, the equivalent of about two and a half days of U.S. demand.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/us-set-unveil-emergency-oil-release-bid-fight-high-prices-2021-11-23/

#2 Debt Service

This year, the federal government will spend $300 billion on interest payments on the national debt. This is the equivalent of nearly 9 percent of all federal revenue collection and over $2,400 per household. The federal government spends more on interest than on science, space, and technology; transportation; and education combined. The household share of federal interest is larger than average household spending on many typical expenditures, including gas, clothing, education, or personal care.

Despite historically low interest rates, this significant interest cost is the result of high levels of debt. This cost could be even worse if interest rates rise. Each one percent rise in the interest rate would increase FY 2021 interest spending by roughly $225 billion at today’s debt levels. Growing debt levels not only add to the likelihood of such increases, but also the cost and risk associated with them.

https://www.crfb.org/papers/how-high-are-federal-interest-payments


#3 Cancelling the Keystone XL pipeline

With a pen stroke, President Joe Biden cancels Keystone XL pipeline project
The newly inaugurated US president has issued an executive order to cancel the Canadian pipeline project approved by his predecessor. Joe Biden has said climate change will be a big focus of his presidency.

Within hours of taking his oath of office, Joe Biden, the 46th president of the United States, had signed over a dozen executive orders, among them one canceling the permit for the Keystone XL oil and gas pipeline.

https://www.dw.com/en/with-a-pen-stroke-president-joe-biden-cancels-keystone-xl-pipeline-project/a-56285371

[riskllama]

tl;dr...

*stupid

[mookiemcgee]

Which is it JP... you said Joe Biden CAUSED the inflation issue. Since I've proven that narrative as entirely fictional you want to pivot to 'he's gonna make things worse with what he's doing'. I have never countered that idea in this thread, because that is a legitimate argument, but let's be entirely clear NOTHING in your long list of bullshit would have affected todays inflation rates.

#1-7
A QUOTE FROM YOUR SOURCED ARTICLE "Operations were due to begin in 2023"
Keystone if he had done nothing at all and let it go ahead would still not be online today and would not have affected oil supply/demand for YEARS. The Canadians have already killed their oil sands projects because oil is too cheap for them to make money given how hard/expensive it is to extract their oil. Would keystone have had an affect on markets in say 3 years? Sure, but it would never have affected todays inflation rate and it's a bullshit arguments and you know it, you just don't like being proven wrong.

#8-?
Care to be specific about stoopid democrat actions? You keep saying democrat spending, when these are largely bipartisan bills. You sure you aren't really just angry at Rino's and Trumpist who spend money like college kids their first time at a strip club but then call themselves conservative when it's time to get your vote?

#22 Oh so now when presented with clear evidence that an inflation bomb was being built from 2016-2020, your argument is 'there's just no way to tell who's responsible... but I'm gonna blame Joe Biden anyway even if I know I'm wrong. Other people should too.'

#23 I'm happy to give Trump all the credit in the world for rushing a vaccine into production and cutting through red tape... even if he regrets it and doesn't want that credit (who am I kidding, Trump always wants credit even if his voters are calling it the Biden Death Jab)
I'm not even saying that as rhetoric either, if they wanted to award him a medal or a nobel prize of something for it I'd say that's great! They gave one to Obama for killing a bunch of people with drones halfway across the world, Trump has a way way better case for getting one in my book.

In my personal opinion I don't like the order/priority that Biden has taken to pass legislation, and I am more than happy to honestly admit it's a very bad time to be trying to pass large spending bills both politically and economically. I would much rather he worked on voting rights legislation, it would have been contentious but not costly to taxpayers. Maybe the political appetite for infrastructure was just low hanging fruit for some bipartisanship i don't know. More importantly though I understand I don't always get what I want, and I don't blame the wrong people when that happens. I try to stay above that nonsense to keep a clearer sight on how thing are.

Love you JP, always a pleasure debating you here!

[Dukasaur]

13) Realize that money BORROWED today has to be paid back with interest payments LATER.

This is at the heart of your misunderstanding. Don’t feel bad — a great many other people also misunderstand this concept.

There is no “later” when the money borrowed has to be paid back. The “national debt” is purely an accounting artifice. It’s somewhat similar to the tacking on of “goodwill” when companies overpay to acquire other companies — a purely imaginary number.

Since the widespread switch to fiat currencies 150 years ago or so, I can’t think of any major nation that has actually paid, or even attempted to pay, its “national debt.” It’s a boogeyman. Politicians yell “our children will have to pay for your profligacy!” at their opponent’s spending plans. And guess what? It never happens. Their children don’t pay, nor do their grandchildren, nor their great-grandchildren, nor any of the other future generations threatened with this horrible but completely fictitious fate.

It’s an accounting artifice — an imaginary number that banks carry on their balance sheets, as bogus as their other assets. In the time before fiat currency, some nations did actually have to pay off their debts and were broken in the attempt. The most recent example I can think of is the Kingdom of Naples in the 16th century.

Since the invention of fiat currency, this fate befalls no-one. Our children will not pay the national debt any more than we did. It’s a lovely number that will be carried forward indefinitely, perhaps for millennia, until the nations that created it cease to exist.

[bigtoughralf]

I heard my name.

Let me know if there's anyone I need to discipline.

[jusplay4fun]

13) Realize that money BORROWED today has to be paid back with interest payments LATER.

This is at the heart of your misunderstanding. Don’t feel bad — a great many other people also misunderstand this concept.

There is no “later” when the money borrowed has to be paid back. The “national debt” is purely an accounting artifice. It’s somewhat similar to the tacking on of “goodwill” when companies overpay to acquire other companies — a purely imaginary number.

Since the widespread switch to fiat currencies 150 years ago or so, I can’t think of any major nation that has actually paid, or even attempted to pay, its “national debt.” It’s a boogeyman. Politicians yell “our children will have to pay for your profligacy!” at their opponent’s spending plans. And guess what? It never happens. Their children don’t pay, nor do their grandchildren, nor their great-grandchildren, nor any of the other future generations threatened with this horrible but completely fictitious fate.

It’s an accounting artifice — an imaginary number that banks carry on their balance sheets, as bogus as their other assets. In the time before fiat currency, some nations did actually have to pay off their debts and were broken in the attempt. The most recent example I can think of is the Kingdom of Naples in the 16th century.

Since the invention of fiat currency, this fate befalls no-one. Our children will not pay the national debt any more than we did. It’s a lovely number that will be carried forward indefinitely, perhaps for millennia, until the nations that created it cease to exist.

There is no misunderstanding by me. I argued from the perspective of paying the INTEREST ONLY and not paying the PRINCIPAL.

I said:

18) Note that when I talk about Debt Service, I do not even discuss paying on the PRINCIPAL, only on the Interest payments.

So you are in favor of a large percent of the budget going to pay interest and not on Roads, Schools, Health Care, Environment, Defense, Research, Art, and the many many other things paid by the Federal government? That is a good idea. Please give me one hamburger today and I will pay for two tomorrow. THAT works fine. It worked in Greece, as has other European Countries. Bad fiscal policies have NO consequences, right?

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2015/08/05/24-7-wall-st-countries-near-bankruptcy/31164239/

What happens if the U.S. defaults on its debt?
Last Updated: Oct. 2, 2021 at 10:09 a.m. ET
First Published: Sept. 27, 2021 at 12:44 p.m. ET

Many analysts, including Moody’s Analytics Chief Economist Mark Zandi, think it’s highly likely that a financial market freak-out — think of the day in 2008 when Congress initially failed to pass the Troubled Asset Relief Program legislation meant to address the financial crisis — would stop any of the scenarios SIFMA envisions before they happen, or a few minutes after midnight on the day they will.

What Koltun calls a “game of chicken” also may already be denting the economy. The last two times Congress came close to not raising the debt limit, in 2011 and 2013, Moody’s Analytics found, “heightened uncertainty at the time reduced business investment and hiring and weighed heavily on GDP growth. If not for this uncertainty, by mid-2015, real GDP would have been $180 billion, or more than 1%, higher; there would have been 1.2 million more jobs; and the unemployment rate would have been 0.7 percentage point lower.”

Uncertainty rippling through the Treasury market in 2013 cost taxpayers anywhere from $40 million to $70 million, Barclay’s reckons.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-happens-if-the-u-s-defaults-on-its-debt-11632761091

[HitRed]

The United Kingdom's pound sterling was the primary reserve currency of much of the world in the 19th century and first half of the 20th century.

During the 19th century and the 20th century up to the beginning of the Second World War, many of the countries of the world owed the UK money for financial debts and needed Pounds Sterling to pay them. And many of those that did not, needed pounds to buy natural resources controlled by the UK and to buy technological goods which were only available from the UK or were most cheaply available from the UK. As a result the Pound formed a good reserve currency because it could be used to settle debts for nearly all international goods and services.

After the Second World War, this was no longer the case. While the UK still controlled many of the world's natural resources, it was deeply indebted and its manufacturing capabilities were damaged. During the next fifty years its manufacturing and debt situations improved but it did not regain its former pre-eminence. Moreover it lost control of the resources markets as its empire dwindled. One consequence was that the pound became less and less useful as a reserve currency as time went on.

In the 21st century the Pound Sterling is still a secondary reserve currency, one of several, but it has been replaced as the primary reserve currency by the US dollar which is used by the World Bank and the IMF to issue much of the world’s international debt and which can now be used to buy all the resources, goods and services which formerly could only have been bought using Pounds Sterling

[mookiemcgee]

Quick history of the former world reserve currency

During the 19th century and the 20th century up to the beginning of the Second World War, many of the countries of the world owed the UK money for financial debts and needed Pounds Sterling to pay them. And many of those that did not, needed pounds to buy natural resources controlled by the UK and to buy technological goods which were only available from the UK or were most cheaply available from the UK. As a result the Pound formed a good reserve currency because it could be used to settle debts for nearly all international goods and services.

After the Second World War, this was no longer the case. While the UK still controlled many of the world's natural resources, it was deeply indebted and its manufacturing capabilities were damaged. During the next fifty years its manufacturing and debt situations improved but it did not regain its former pre-eminence. Moreover it lost control of the resources markets as its empire dwindled. One consequence was that the pound became less and less useful as a reserve currency as time went on.

In the 21st century the Pound Sterling is still a secondary reserve currency, one of several, but it has been replaced as the primary reserve currency by the US dollar which is used by the World Bank and the IMF to issue much of the world’s international debt and which can now be used to buy all the resources, goods and services which formerly could only have been bought using Pounds Sterling

...Enter Bitcoin.

[HitRed]

Maybe, maybe not. Technology is advancing quickly.

—-

I was watching some Canadians on YouTube that had struck it rich with Bitcoin. One guy said he bought at 6, 7 and 9 dollars. Now it’s 57,000. Both said they still don’t know what Bitcoin is. One said in 50 years we
may know what Bitcoin is.

—-

Its very controlled growth rate is appealing. It’s not effected by government spending or borrowing

[jusplay4fun]

Let me address a few issues that Mookie raises.

As far as inflation, there are many causes and to pin ALL the blame on Biden is UNFAIR. I admit that.

However:

Oil and gasoline prices started to go up SOON after President killed the Keystone XL pipeline. Perhaps there are many other factors, BUT oil prices are based on reality and on expectations. Shutting down the pipeline raised expectations** and exacerbated shortages and added to inflationary pressure. Some where already there, but I will argue Biden (and his Administration) and his Congressional allies made that situations MUCH worse.

Oil and gasoline prices ripple through the economy and causes inflation to intensify. [my #1-7]

You say I offer no specifics 8-? and that is you only response? Weak, Mookie. And you offer a rather ridiculous analogy.

Then you jump from 8 to #22? That is rather weak, too.

And you did not counter my SPECIFIC ONE example of AOC (#19) and then unemployment (#20). You ask for specifics and then when I do, you ignore them. What do we make of THAT?

More money via fiscal policy does not help. Look at the M2 data that HitRed provided via a link. That trend line keeps climbing and is causing LOTS of additional and significant inflation NOW, today. And sure, there was pent-up demands, AND fiscal bad policy has NOT helped. In fact, those policies exacerbate inflationary pressures.

And now Biden is playing politics and attempts to show he is doing "something" by releasing a LARGE amount of oil from the Strategic Reserve, which will have almost NO overall impact. Oil and/or gasoline prices declined since his announcement, due to EXPECTATIONS as I already addressed (see ** above).

You apparently want to blame Trump and Bi-partisanship for the current inflation, but realize it was COVID spending that really put LOTS of inflationary pressures on the economy and UNTIL that point your only REAL argument was Tariffs, that I showed was limited to 0.5% and is relatively insignificant.

I think you will concede that Biden will get the blame (rightly or wrongly) for this round of inflation, UNLESS he can turn it around by June 2024. His Policies will not allow that to happen. Thank Goodness that Senator Manchin is putting some brakes on bad economic and fiscal policies by Progressive Democrats (Bernie, AOC, and the rest of the "Squad"). Those are the ones I label as "STOOOPID Democrats."

And if you want a idea of priorities for President Biden, see his list of Signed Executive Orders from Day One of his Administration. (I already referenced that elsewhere in a post, btw.) One of the most egregious examples of BAD POLICIES is the CRISES caused by BIDEN (and worsened by Kamala's inactions) at the US Southern Border.

Again, Virginia voters rejected the attempt by Clinton ALLY Terry McAuliffe to link the Republican Candidate (and winner Glenn Youngkin) to President Trump. We in Virginia rejected the national policies that McAuliffe kept bringing into the race for Governor of Virginia. Of course, McAuliffe made many other mistakes, the biggest one is likely his QUOTED assertion that PARENTS should not tell the School administrators what to teach THEIR children. That may have been McAuliffe's biggest mistake. He made mistakes that cost him his attempt to repeat as Governor (after a four year required time; VA Governors cannot be re-elected immediately after their term.)

McAuliffe ran and won as a pro-business moderate in 2013. He did not use that same model this time in 2021. BIG MISTAKE. He came across as PROGRESSIVE Democrat and that did NOT work, outside his stronghold in parts of Northern Virginia. I think he also failed to inspire significant voter turnout among the black population throughout Virginia.

It appears that Biden is seeing the bad poll numbers and the close election in New Jersey, too, where the incumbent Democrat Governor nearly lost his re-election bid. Biden appears to be getting worried.

I enjoy debating you, too, Mookie. At least we can have a civil discussion, even if we disagree on some things.

[mookiemcgee]

Let me address a few issues that Mookie raises.

As far as inflation, there are many causes and to pin ALL the blame on Biden is UNFAIR. I admit that.

However:

Oil and gasoline prices started to go up SOON after President killed the Keystone XL pipeline. Perhaps there are many other factors, BUT oil prices are based on reality and on expectations. Shutting down the pipeline raised expectations** and exacerbated shortages and added to inflationary pressure. Some where already there, but I will argue Biden (and his Administration) and his Congressional allies made that situations MUCH worse.

Oil and gasoline prices ripple through the economy and causes inflation to intensify. [my #1-7]

You say I offer no specifics 8-? and that is you only response? Weak, Mookie. And you offer a rather ridiculous analogy.

Then you jump from 8 to #22? That is rather weak, too.

And you did not counter my SPECIFIC ONE example of AOC (#19) and then unemployment (#20). You ask for specifics and then when I do, you ignore them. What do we make of THAT?

More money via fiscal policy does not help. Look at the M2 data that HitRed provided via a link. That trend line keeps climbing and is causing LOTS of additional and significant inflation NOW, today. And sure, there was pent-up demands, AND fiscal bad policy has NOT helped. In fact, those policies exacerbate inflationary pressures.

And now Biden is playing politics and attempts to show he is doing "something" by releasing a LARGE amount of oil from the Strategic Reserve, which will have almost NO overall impact. Oil and/or gasoline prices declined since his announcement, due to EXPECTATIONS as I already addressed (see ** above).

You apparently want to blame Trump and Bi-partisanship for the current inflation, but realize it was COVID spending that really put LOTS of inflationary pressures on the economy and UNTIL that point your only REAL argument was Tariffs, that I showed was limited to 0.5% and is relatively insignificant.

I think you will concede that Biden will get the blame (rightly or wrongly) for this round of inflation, UNLESS he can turn it around by June 2024. His Policies will not allow that to happen. Thank Goodness that Senator Manchin is putting some brakes on bad economic and fiscal policies by Progressive Democrats (Bernie, AOC, and the rest of the "Squad"). Those are the ones I label as "STOOOPID Democrats."

And if you want a idea of priorities for President Biden, see his list of Signed Executive Orders from Day One of his Administration. (I already referenced that elsewhere in a post, btw.) One of the most egregious examples of BAD POLICIES is the CRISES caused by BIDEN (and worsened by Kamala's inactions) at the US Southern Border.

Again, Virginia voters rejected the attempt by Clinton ALLY Terry McAuliffe to link the Republican Candidate (and winner Glenn Youngkin) to President Trump. We in Virginia rejected the national policies that McAuliffe kept bringing into the race for Governor of Virginia. Of course, McAuliffe made many other mistakes, the biggest one is likely his QUOTED assertion that PARENTS should not tell the School administrators what to teach THEIR children. That may have been McAuliffe's biggest mistake. He made mistakes that cost him his attempt to repeat as Governor (after a four year required time; VA Governors cannot be re-elected immediately after their term.)

McAuliffe ran and won as a pro-business moderate in 2013. He did not use that same model this time in 2021. BIG MISTAKE. He came across as PROGRESSIVE Democrat and that did NOT work, outside his stronghold in parts of Northern Virginia. I think he also failed to inspire significant voter turnout among the black population throughout Virginia.

It appears that Biden is seeing the bad poll numbers and the close election in New Jersey, too, where the incumbent Democrat Governor nearly lost his re-election bid. Biden appears to be getting worried.

I enjoy debating you, too, Mookie. At least we can have a civil discussion, even if we disagree on some things.

I skipped the 8-18 or whatever because you were just repeatedly ranting and saying nothing really at all.

#19 AOC presented an idea. An idea is not law, and ideas don't affect inflation.

#20 honestly I have no clue what you are even talking about with this, maybe you can source this cus I really don't recall it but based on what you described... in 2017 an idea was put forth, and DIDN'T become law because it was an idea that didn't have enough support... and that caused inflation?

There I addressed the (2 of 25?) things you presented that you felt were specific enough.

Again, my purpose here is to challenge you on the idea of what caused our existing inflation. I'm happy to have a debate about where inflation will be in 2 years and how much of that would be the responsibility of Biden. But the situation we find ourselves in is patently NOT because of a president in office for less than a year.

To specifically address the 'timing' of the official cancelling of the Keystone and the bump in oil prices. It did no affect oil supply or demand. Demand changes are what affected rising prices, the vaccine went live, people started traveling again, borders were re-opened across the world, and folks starting going back to the office (all over the world). This would have happened if Trump was in office and Keystone was still online.

I'm not going to get into here about border policy, again it's fairly irrelevant to inflation (unless you are counting all the gov't money trump spent on 'securing' the border).

[jusplay4fun]

We can debate Correlation vs. Causality, with no real resolution.

Here are the facts: Inflation became significant AFTER Biden takes Office.

Again, EVEN if the basis for current inflation was in place while President Trump was in Office:
a) inflation was minimal;
b) massive deficit spending hit a HUGE Round 2 with COVID relief.

AOC #19 and an IDEA? She was rather clueless when she says the 3 Branches (and she stumbles on that word, as I recall; you can watch the video again); The Three Branches of Government is the Executive, Senate, and the House. She totally ignored and/or was not cognizant of the Judiciary (including the Supreme Court). How dumb is this former bartender? This is not an "idea." This indicates how little she knows about the Federal Government. I use her as an egregious example of a "Stoooopid Democrat." I guess that one got under your skin. I wonder if she would have gotten elected if some/many of her constituents did not see her as attractive.

I will have to research the 100 weeks of unemployment benefits (#20). I know this (without research) because someone I know well was unemployed at the time.

I spent some time researching and there is SO Many proposals for unemployment under the COVID crises that finding documentation for the defeated extension to 100 weeks is VERY difficult to find. And that is my point: there are so many very generous benefits, including an additional $300 above and beyond the basic unemployment benefits that there is MUCH less incentive to actually get a job. And yes, those UNFILLED jobs are mostly low paying service jobs.

Under the new $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan Act of 2021, which was signed into law by President Joe Biden in early March, American workers who are unemployed will receive federal unemployment benefit payments of $300 per week – on top of standard benefit levels – through September 6, 2021.

https://www.kiplinger.com/personal-finance/careers/unemployment/602484/the-basics-of-unemployment-benefits-who-qualifies-how

Duk already said it and said it well: those who worked in a white collar job are very reluctant to take a job that requires mostly labor and not sitting at a desk. And many want a job working from HOME (nearly ALL sitting at a Desk). So they quit the job where it was essential that they leave home everyday. And they draw unemployment.

I will give one real example of inflation in the PAST 6 months. This is all (Basically) tied to COVID shut downs and unemployment benefits. I usually go once about two weeks to a nearby McDonald's. I got the same thing for about $6.64. It went up in July (or so) to about $7.50; now that very same breakfast is about $8.25. I am sure most of the cost increases are due to trying to get workers to take that service job (low wages, cannot be done from home). Let us call my estimation of the current cost to be about a 25% increase of price that I pay. What is that called? INFLATION.

btw: yesterday, rather than going to McDonald's yesterday, I made my own 2 sandwiches. I saw some Canadian bacon at the grocery store some 2 weeks ago and decided the price increases needed to be avoided (at times) so I decided to become my own breakfast chef, making 2 sandwiches with eggs (a) scrambled and (b) over-medium. NOT bad, but I need more iterations (practice) to get it more agreeable to my discriminatory palate.

No matter the resolution of the issues of correlation vs. causality, President Biden will get the Blame for this round of inflation. I will admit that President Trump would have had to deal with much of this inflation if he were re-elected.

Some more big points:

A) The US President get too much credit when the Economy does well and too much blame when it goes badly.

B) All this is because the Economy (US and elsewhere) is incredibly complex, especially if there is capitalism and not mostly socialist state control. To blame Biden for ALL this inflation is UNFAIR; I admit that.

C) Take Oil prices, yes, I am sure much of what Duk and Mookie say about Keystone XL is a valid argument, BUT ..... expectations of future supplies and speculation of future oil prices ALSO drive prices and not JUST supply and demand. This adds a layer of complexity to a vital commodity and a key component of the current inflation.

I have told my wife and few others in RL that we as a nation and as a world need to move away from fossil fuels. Biden is taking us there, trying to implement some of the Paris Accord agreements and his presence in Glasgow shows his commitment. This is a DISRUPTIVE shift in the Economy and it will and already has caused some price increases (over several months, not days). As we shift away from fossil fuels, we can expect more such disruptions. Also, OPEC does not want their monopoly weakened and will act to slow this shift. So now we have Biden BEGGING OPEC to increase supply. Good Luck on that Hail Mary, Biden. So, yes, I now tied in man-made Global Warming HERE.

OPEC oil output rise in October undershoots target - survey

LONDON, Nov 1 (Reuters) - The increase in OPEC's oil output in October fell short of the rise planned under a deal with allies, a Reuters survey found on Monday, as involuntary outages in some smaller producers offset higher supplies from Saudi Arabia and Iraq.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) pumped 27.50 million barrels per day (bpd) in October, the survey found, a rise of 190,000 bpd from the previous month but below the 254,000 increase permitted under the supply deal.
OPEC states and their allies, a grouping known as OPEC+, are relaxing output cuts made in 2020 as demand recovers from the coronavirus pandemic, although some members are not delivering the full boosts promised due to a lack of capacity.

The OPEC+ alliance is also wary of pumping too much oil in case of renewed setbacks in the battle against COVID-19.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-oil-output-rise-october-undershoots-target-survey-2021-11-01/

Nov 6, 2021,10:54am EDT|5,677 views
The Double Irony Of Asking OPEC To Increase Oil Production

As I wrote in February of this year in The Inherent Risks In President Biden’s Energy Plan:

“If we prematurely discourage investment in fossil fuels — and then our dependence doesn't decline as rapidly as the Biden Administration envisions — that is a recipe for shortages, higher prices, and greater dependence on foreign nations for our energy.”

Like the Obama Administration, the Biden Administration initially adopted a relatively hostile position toward the fossil fuel industry. The revocation of the Keystone XL Pipeline permit and the temporary suspension of new oil and gas leases on federal lands were policies that signaled that the Biden Administration wants to move the country away from oil.
President Biden pleaded with OPEC this week to pump more oil. Those pleas were rebuffed, and late in the week Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm called on oil-producing nations to immediately increase crude supplies so people won’t be hurt by high prices this winter.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rrapier/2021/11/06/the-double-irony-of-asking-opec-to-increase-oil-production/?sh=1757f7bd45e0

D) As I already posted elsewhere, I volunteer at a local Food Bank to help the Poor and Needy. IN March of 2021, we have about half of what we gave away in July of 2020. WHY, I asked. One answer: increased EBT Benefits and increases to Free School Lunches. MORE Federal money that is helpful and needed, but one impact is to NOT encourage people to find jobs, even low income service ones.

E) My point about immigration was a digression (I admit), but points to more policies by Biden that I view as STOOOPID as he did not anticipate the impact of his policy shift. AND he and Kamala failed to act properly to reduce this flow of immigrants north. Instead, they want to focus on a few border patrol agents that APPEARED to used their horse reins to "whip" a few Haitians who ILLEGALLY tried to enter the USA. THANKS, Kamala...! You are such a great Administrator. Mookie, was she this effective as California A. G.?

[HitRed]

The thread Leading Indicators was started Apr 04, 2021 covering the rising prices of lumber, aluminum, silver and other raw materials.
viewtopic.php?f=8&t=235856&hilit=Lumber

Inflation is anywhere and everywhere you buy because “Inflation is everywhere and anywhere a monetary phenomenon.” Where did this come from?

The Congress in this country has the power of the purse. Yes, signed by Trump and Biden. There is a year or two lag time before inflation hits the retail level. It starts with the money supply, then shows in raw materials, then anything effecting the production process and finally lands on the store shelves.

It’s all baked in. It’s not going away for at least 3 years.

Canada has already set a date to start raising interest rates to fight inflation. The USA hasn’t.



HitRed

[mookiemcgee]

We can debate Correlation vs. Causality, with no real resolution.

I guess if you won't admit you are wrong we can. It's pretty clear as day, you haven't really put forward any real counterarguments that hold water against what I've said. You have countered in any way the inflationary pressure of 4 years of constant fiscal stimulus under trump. Yes Covid lit the fuse, but he spent years building the bomb and almost no republicans stood in his way.

There is a year or two lag time before inflation hits the retail level. It starts with the money supply, then shows in raw materials, then anything effecting the production process and finally lands on the store shelves.

It’s all baked in. It’s not going away for at least 3 years.

Hitred has it right, this isn't debatable... and inflation has ALREADY hit the retail level, and it will continue to get worse.

Getting back to Keystone... did you know the USA was never going to use the Canadian oil? It was going to refine it and ship it overseas, it litterally was going to make American companies some money but not directly affect the US prices on gasoline. Sure it's all tied together, but it's some of the world worst quality oil, and requires a metric ton of refining. For someone who talks so passionately about climate change, I really can't understand why you are so pro-Keystone? Personally I though Keystone a decent idea in say 2013, but it's been dead since the Obama administration killed it and the market had already priced it as such.

Never been a Kamala fan, she's always been all double speak. I don't find her to have much authenticity in her beliefs or any feeling of genuine empathy (probably Joe's single greatest asset as a politician), and I don't find her to be a terribly good politician though clearly some people disagree. She wasn't a great AG, and it was clearly just padding for her resume anyway. She was probably a fine lawyer (as many lawmakers are), but she still reeks of 'I'm a lawyer'. If she ran for president... well I guess it depends on who's shes running against but I would prefer not to vote for her. If it was say her vs John Kasic I would vote for Kasic 100% of the time. If it was Nikki Haley I'd vote for Nikki. If it was like Cruz, DeSantis I would have a really hard time deciding but would probably choose the old white men... if it was Trump I would vote for her 100% of the time.

If it was Mike Pence... who am I kidding it won't be Mike Pence haha.

[HitRed]

It’s hard to get a clear picture of the status of the pipeline.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Keys ... -route.svg

Phase 1 online 2010, Phase 2 online 2011, Phase 3a online 2014 and Phase 3b online 2017. Section 4 from was canceled.

So is Canadian oil moving into the USA?

HitRed

Update

https://www.autoblog.com/2021/01/23/can ... es-record/

Meanwhile, TC Energy received U.S. approval last year to expand its existing Keystone 590,000-bpd line — located far from the proposed Keystone XL — which would add an additional 170,000 bpd into the U.S. Midwest and Gulf Coast. -so it’s still alive in parts

"We will be over-piped assuming the other pipelines go ahead on schedule," said Wood Mackenzie research director Mark Oberstoetter. "If you add them all up, you can make the argument KXL was not needed."Phase 4 could be overkill

[mookiemcgee]

Maybe, maybe not. Technology is advancing quickly.

—-

I was watching some Canadians on YouTube that had struck it rich with Bitcoin. One guy said he bought at 6, 7 and 9 dollars. Now it’s 57,000. Both said they still don’t know what Bitcoin is. One said in 50 years we
may know what Bitcoin is.

—-

Its very controlled growth rate is appealing. It’s not effected by government spending or borrowing

It has alot going for it, but it has some potential weaknesses as a truly decentralized (state free) reserve type currency. For one the mining process will generally take place wherever the cheapest energy can be had, which could leave the 'machinery' that powers the network not as physically decentralized as I think was initially envisioned by it's creators. It will always (or at least for about 100 years) have a direct relationship with energy production, mining is what validates 'the books', if you control enough mining you can control the whole network, and potentially change the rules of the network (the crypto version of a 51% attack in the business world). Mining is pretty spread out globally now (especially after China banned mining 6 months ago), but it was a concern in the early days and could be a potential future issue for it.

[mookiemcgee]

It’s hard to get a clear picture of the status of the pipeline.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Keys ... -route.svg

Phase 1 online 2010, Phase 2 online 2011, Phase 3a online 2014 and Phase 3b online 2017. Section 4 from was canceled.

So is Canadian oil moving into the USA?

HitRed

Update

https://www.autoblog.com/2021/01/23/can ... es-record/

Meanwhile, TC Energy received U.S. approval last year to expand its existing Keystone 590,000-bpd line — located far from the proposed Keystone XL — which would add an additional 170,000 bpd into the U.S. Midwest and Gulf Coast. -so it’s still alive in parts

"We will be over-piped assuming the other pipelines go ahead on schedule," said Wood Mackenzie research director Mark Oberstoetter. "If you add them all up, you can make the argument KXL was not needed."Phase 4 could be overkill

What a happy ending!

[jusplay4fun]

We can debate Correlation vs. Causality, with no real resolution.

I guess if you won't admit you are wrong we can. It's pretty clear as day, you haven't really put forward any real counterarguments that hold water against what I've said. You have countered in any way the inflationary pressure of 4 years of constant fiscal stimulus under trump. Yes Covid lit the fuse, but he spent years building the bomb and almost no republicans stood in his way.

There is a year or two lag time before inflation hits the retail level. It starts with the money supply, then shows in raw materials, then anything effecting the production process and finally lands on the store shelves.

It’s all baked in. It’s not going away for at least 3 years.

Hitred has it right, this isn't debatable... and inflation has ALREADY hit the retail level, and it will continue to get worse.

Getting back to Keystone... did you know the USA was never going to use the Canadian oil? It was going to refine it and ship it overseas, it litterally was going to make American companies some money but not directly affect the US prices on gasoline. Sure it's all tied together, but it's some of the world worst quality oil, and requires a metric ton of refining. For someone who talks so passionately about climate change, I really can't understand why you are so pro-Keystone? Personally I though Keystone a decent idea in say 2013, but it's been dead since the Obama administration killed it and the market had already priced it as such.

Never been a Kamala fan, she's always been all double speak. I don't find her to have much authenticity in her beliefs or any feeling of genuine empathy (probably Joe's single greatest asset as a politician), and I don't find her to be a terribly good politician though clearly some people disagree. She wasn't a great AG, and it was clearly just padding for her resume anyway. She was probably a fine lawyer (as many lawmakers are), but she still reeks of 'I'm a lawyer'. If she ran for president... well I guess it depends on who's shes running against but I would prefer not to vote for her. If it was say her vs John Kasic I would vote for Kasic 100% of the time. If it was Nikki Haley I'd vote for Nikki. If it was like Cruz, DeSantis I would have a really hard time deciding but would probably choose the old white men... if it was Trump I would vote for her 100% of the time.

If it was Mike Pence... who am I kidding it won't be Mike Pence haha.

Mookie,

I have given LOTS of evidence to the contrary. You refuse to even concede that such an analysis may even be correct.

a) Do you concede inflationary pressures are complex? I did.

I did even admit there were SOME inflationary pressure before President Biden took office.

Are you willing to concede that:
b) Biden is getting the BLAME NOW (rightly or wrongly) for the INFLATION OCCURRING NOW under his "watch" and that inflation has gotten WORSE since he took Office?
c) Is it even REMOTELY possible that Biden will be blamed for this current round of inflation by 2024 or even by 2030? by reputable and fair-minded economists? I predict he will be given the majority of the blame.

I have already offered evidence (actually HitRed did) on the M2 Money Supply and the Velocity of Money (both from the Monetarist School of Economic Thought). I also presented evidence of FISCAL (i.e., Government SPENDING) policy as being a major cause of INFLATION. What did you present? Tariffs. Oh, that was huge, at 0.5% in 2018 or so. A totally weak argument, that you totally ignored when I gave evidence of the impotence of your argument. You, sir, are FULL of Hot Air.

d) Are the "rescue packages" passed by Congress and signed into effect by President Trump a factor in inflation? Yes. Was it ALL ideas by Republicans? NO. Trump made almost no attempt to push back on any of the overspending. If he did, the Media will have PUMMELED Trump as heartless and not concern about the welfare and economic plight of the "poor."

Let us see how much Blame is laid at Trump's feet. So far I have read NOTHING on this, unless I go read more scholarly and balanced articles on economics. I think that Biden having dragged his feet on re-appointment of Jerome Powell did not show good confidence in him. I see that as a mistake.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell Faces Reappointment Amid Tumult

from the NYTIMES
AND NO, I will NOT pay you $1 for any of your slanted news.

I already addressed the issue of an additional $300 per week unemployment and extended EBT (i.e., "Food Stamps") benefits and School Lunch Money that gets almost NO attention by the Media. ALL these contributed to MORE MONEY and more Demand and DISCOURAGED people going to work and thus LESS SUPPLY. I do not recall you ADDRESSING ANY of these issues, Mookie. You just want to tell me "you haven't really put forward any real counterarguments." Read Mookie, and get off your liberal progressive soapbox.

Did you even answer my question about "your Girl" from California, Kamala Harris? I do not recall any answer to my inquiry there. Did you address the issue of AOC and her BLUNDER about the 3 branches of Government? I did not see any reply there.

Go on accusing me of a lack of thought and "real counterarguments." You have offered even less.

I offered a concession on some of my points and you offer NOTHING in response (except YELLING and general talking points). You seem unwilling to even consider that some of my arguments may have SOME MERIT.

If you do not concede or are unwilling to discuss any of my points a) , b), or c), then there is no point in debating this matter further. I thought we were having a civil discussion, but now you want to merely YELL and repeat liberal talking points and you offer NO REAL ANALYSIS.

[riskllama]

only person YELLING in here is YOU, jp - try to keep it cogers, pls.

[jusplay4fun]

U.S. inflation is at its highest rate in 31 years, with consumers seeing prices rise sharply for a variety of goods and services because of persistent supply and labor shortages and strong demand.

Stoked by imbalances in the economy created by the Covid-19 pandemic, inflation is one of the most vexing problems facing economists and government policy makers—from Federal Reserve officials, who set interest rates, to the Biden administration and Congress. The causes are myriad, and the tools that are usually deployed can, in some scenarios, push the economy into a recession as a way of taming price pressures.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/inflation-definition-cause-stock-market-11637623703

Consumer prices are rising at the fastest rate since the Great Recession and the second fastest rate since the early 1980s. Earlier this year Fed Chair Jerome Powell remarked that we would experience higher inflation on a temporary basis. We are now finding this to be true. The reasons for this round of rising prices can be traced to three main causes.

Reason #1: Increased Money Supply

Inflation is most likely to occur whenever there are too many dollars chasing too few goods. This is simple supply and demand. When the pandemic struck, the Federal Reserve and Federal government, together, flooded the economy with more dollars. How much more? In January 2020, the M2 money supply was around $15.41 trillion. This past April, only 16 months later, the M2 money supply was at $20.11 trillion, representing an increase of 30%. While this may have boosted the economy and helped avoid a more serious recession, it also contributed to higher inflation.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikepatton/2021/06/10/buckle-up-3-reasons-why-inflation-is-rising/?sh=18227c3e2f80

Biden’s Economic Plans Collide With Inflation Reality
President is racing to show he can address rising prices amid mounting anxiety among some advisers ahead of next year’s midterm elections
WASHINGTON—President Biden took office with a raft of economic plans to better position the U.S. to compete on the world stage and jump-start a labor market ravaged by the pandemic. Ten months into his term, Mr. Biden is facing a new set of economic challenges.

The number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits fell to a 52-year low last week, available jobs are trending near record highs and consumer spending is rising. But those positive economic developments have been complicated by supply-chain bottlenecks and the highest inflation in three decades.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-spending-inflation-supply-chain-jobs-market-11637853650?cx_testId=3&cx_testVariant=cx_2&cx_artPos=0&mod=WTRN#cxrecs_s

What are some of the factors that contribute to a rise in inflation?

October 2002

This is a great question! Inflation rates and speculation about future inflation are mentioned so often in the media that it's important to know some basics about inflation.

https://www.frbsf.org/education/publications/doctor-econ/2002/october/inflation-factors-rise/

Biden’s Nearly $2 Trillion Social Spending and Climate Bill Is a Boon for Unions
Business groups plan to push back on a prevailing wage rule and other measures when the bill goes to the Senate

WASHINGTON—President Biden’s nearly $2 trillion spending bill passed by the House is stocked with benefits for organized labor, including a measure aimed at helping unionized companies win billions of dollars in new green-energy projects.

The legislation also has labor-backed measures to raise fines for violations of workplace safety and other rules, expands funding for home-care services provided by union workers and allows union members to write off some of their dues.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-spending-unions-green-energy-11637860239?cx_testId=3&cx_testVariant=cx_5&cx_artPos=1&mod=WTRN#cxrecs_s

[bigtoughralf]

only person YELLING in here is YOU, jp - try to keep it cogers, pls.

Looks like you've persuaded him to switch from block caps to bold text. Good job, llama.

[jusplay4fun]

only person YELLING in here is YOU, jp - try to keep it cogers, pls.

Looks like you've persuaded him to switch from block caps to bold text. Good job, llama.

It appears that two of the frequent posters and trolls cannot distinguish between BOLD, CAPS (YELLING), and larger font size.

Well done; you two keep showing your stoooopidity. Try some more intelligent posts, llama-ralf.

In the meantime, I will continue to ignore most of the nonsense that you two joyless egotists post.

[HitRed]

Our next step is interest rates.

This covers Turkey but the mechanics are nicely explained.
9 minutes.